Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Corvus]

Another thing that happened when the rumours started was a large spike in Google searches in Russia on how to avoid military service and how to leave the country.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Biloshyts...93567866982400

Mobilisation is not popular.

Putins televised addresses are never done live - they are pre-recorded. For whatever reason they decidec against broadcasting it.

[D Luniz]

Russia is pulling some subs away from Crimea to rebase them elsewhere:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ys-2022-09-20/

I wonder if that means they're seriously considering Crimea might be lost.

Well, doesn't just holding Crimea require them to truck in thousands of gallons of potable water a day cause Ukraine blew up the canal when Russia stole that region.

[Iphie]

Another thing that happened when the rumours started was a large spike in Google searches in Russia on how to avoid military service and how to leave the country.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Biloshyts...93567866982400

Mobilisation is not popular.

Putins televised addresses are never done live - they are pre-recorded. For whatever reason they decidec against broadcasting it.

It was marketed as going to be live, but...russians...yeah...

[Kokolums]

Yes, kidnapping kids from Ukraine and sending them to fight against Ukraine, that will DEFINITELY work out the way they want.

thats actually a standard in war dating back thousands of years.

in order to truly conquer a region:
1. take the children of that region into your region
2. educate them in your schools and instill your values and culture in them.
3. send them back as adults to rule over the region that was conquered.

this enables you to completely blank out and permanently destroy the culture of that region in just one generation.

thats been done many times. you can erase a culture super quick.

[Kaleredar]

thats actually a standard in war dating back thousands of years.

in order to truly conquer a region:
1. take the children of that region into your region
2. educate them in your schools and instill your values and culture in them.
3. send them back as adults to rule over the region that was conquered.

this enables you to completely blank out and permanently destroy the culture of that region in just one generation.

thats been done many times. you can erase a culture super quick.

That requires Russia to win. They haven't done that. Nor is this some war Russia can afford to drag on for generations. And this isn't ancient Greece, where the people living in one region never know anything that happens beyond 20 miles outside of their village.

[Kokolums]

Another thing that happened when the rumours started was a large spike in Google searches in Russia on how to avoid military service and how to leave the country.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Biloshyts...93567866982400

Mobilisation is not popular.

its never popular. the FBI closed half a million cases of draft evasion in ww2.

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That requires Russia to win.

no sane person thinks russia will lose to ukraine. they will declare war if they must. but they will win.

[Veggie50]

its never popular. the FBI closed half a million cases of draft evasion in ww2.

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no sane person thinks russia will lose to ukraine. they will declare war if they must. but they will win.

Yea, russian mobilization is sure to solve it. They’ll just let them use the good military vehicles/equipment they’ve been saving. Wouldn’t have been fun to give that stuff to first army, things might’ve been over too soon!

[Corvus]

No sane person thinks russia is going to win.

[Iphie]

Yea, russian mobilization is sure to solve it. They’ll just let them use the good military vehicles/equipment they’ve been saving. Wouldn’t have been fun to give that stuff to first army, things might’ve been over too soon!

Imagine for a moment that this would be the case though, wouldn't you be a tad upset? I know I would if I were a soldier.

[alach]

So this is his endgame.
Hes gonna hold the fake referedums on the weekend, absorb them as provinces of russia, and declare victory. Remember how fast he moved when this all started.
It is what he has been after all along, the untapped gas fields in the northeast.

Its gonna put the west in a tricky position.

[Corvus]

The west have already said that any referendum will be ignored. Ukraine isn't going to stop fighting and will continue to take back land. The west will continue to supply weapons.

Putin and the Kremlin are in full blown panic mode. As Darth Putin said 'my bluff has been called even before I played it.'

[Cynep]

I'm the only one here to give an insight from the Ukrainian view on these referenda. (that guy from Kyiv went to fight, I hope he's fine).

While this attempt to reframe the conflict from a special operation of "denazification" into a defensive war for Russia is indeed escalatory and worrisome, for Ukraine is still means that taking Kherson or Donetsk or Crimea is legal, justified and okay. It also can and will be interpreted that taking a part of what Russia calls Russian territory is legal, justified and okay. Therefore, splitting Russia up into small parts Scroe-style is legal, justified and okay. Sorry Vladier, sorry Iphie and other moderates. If these referenda happen, for Ukrainians it's either they get genocided or Russia becomes permanently weaker than Ukraine. You know how Bismarck's life mission was to make then-hegemonic France weaker than Prussia. Only it's harsher for Ukrainians, France didn't even think about genociding Prussia.

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thats actually a standard in war dating back thousands of years.

in order to truly conquer a region:
1. take the children of that region into your region
2. educate them in your schools and instill your values and culture in them.
3. send them back as adults to rule over the region that was conquered.

this enables you to completely blank out and permanently destroy the culture of that region in just one generation.

thats been done many times. you can erase a culture super quick.

Eh, it's only partially true. The process you described was successfully done by Poland to Ukraine by early 1600's (and less thoroughly and less successfully to Lithuania later). The result is that Ukraine for centuries has only low-class culture focussed on indestructibility. Upper and middle classes were completely polonized but entire culture wan't destroyed, it changed to permanent guerrilla.

[Corvus]

Putin has apparently ordered partial mobilisation. Uncertain as to what that means exactly. Probably means Moscow/St Petersburg excempt but nowhere else.

[alach]

Im almost tempted to lean towards letting him have it for now if it would put the end of the active fighting and work on getting the world back on track again.

Russia will still be a pariah and sanctioned for generations, they will not get stronger. Ukraine can join the EU and nato and work on moving forward.
I imagine there will be an ongoing insurgency in the newly russified region forever as well.

Looks to me like he wants to end this fast. A mobilization to protect his new terrority.

[Liftbrul]

Probably means Moscow/St Petersburg excempt but nowhere else.

Wouldn't want the little darlings of the elite to get turned into paste by Ukie artillery. That's what the poor & ethnic are for.

[Corvus]

Usual drivel from Putin. Everything is the West's fault. They made him invade Ukraine. They want to destroy Russia. etc etc and so on.

[Kaleredar]

no sane person thinks russia will lose to ukraine. they will declare war if they must. but they will win.

It's been six months of a three-day operation and Russia hasn't just stalled out, they're losing their early gains and have begun to withdraw forces from places they controlled prior to the invasion.

We'll see what their "partial mobilization" panic mode results in, but they weren't able to supply the troops they had with basically unlimited prep time, and I've seen no indication that any of their infrastructure, supply lines, or technology has improved since they started the war. In fact, all of those things seem to have gotten worse.

[jonnysensible]

Putin is desperate to turn Russia into the ultimate stag-do destination. Cheap booze, lots of single women. Top lad.

His attempts to claim the referendum will mean its russia proper and then he said '"If its territorial integrity is threatened Russia will use all the means at its disposal. This is not a bluff."'

what a joke.

Whats to stop him saying we are having an online referendum about Riga, London and New York joining Russia. ooof 99% want to join its now Russia!

[Iphie]

So partial mobilisation it is, I wonder whether the delay in his speech was that he was going to order full mobilisation but got talked out of that? Anyway, for now Ukraine can still fight on.

[Nymrohd]

The west have already said that any referendum will be ignored. Ukraine isn't going to stop fighting and will continue to take back land. The west will continue to supply weapons.

Putin and the Kremlin are in full blown panic mode. As Darth Putin said 'my bluff has been called even before I played it.'

I mean I doubt it is just the west that will ignore them. Do you think China or India would acknowledge annexations through referenda at gunpoint? Or any of Russia's "allies" that share a border?

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Putin is desperate to turn Russia into the ultimate stag-do destination. Cheap booze, lots of single women. Top lad.

His attempts to claim the referendum will mean its russia proper and then he said '"If its territorial integrity is threatened Russia will use all the means at its disposal. This is not a bluff."'

what a joke.

Whats to stop him saying we are having an online referendum about Riga, London and New York joining Russia. ooof 99% want to join its now Russia!

China should hold an online referendum on Outer Manchuria