Crisis in UK, Can Tories Save Liz Truss?

[DingDongKing]

So you've moved from 'Sunak's candidacy is the Tories playing the diversity card' to 'maybe donors and campaigners will talk about diversity', which would be exactly what Labour and other parties already do. And I've never voted Tory in my life.

Bad news for Sunak's campaign: https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/statu...30148170874882

For those who can't/won't view the video, it's from a 2001 BBC documentary about the rise of the middle classes. A young Sunak is talking about his friends and says "I have friends who are aristocrats. I have friends who are upper class. I have friends who are, you know, working class. Well, not working class." He says the last bit with a touch of contempt. Not sure if we should condemn a guy for a flippant comment made in his youth 21 years ago though.

I didn't use the word maybe. And when I say Tories, it encompasses the party, its donors and campaigners. They're all the party. And yes, all parties do this. The difference is Sunak can't even muster policies that would be deemed as diverse or progressive.

[Pann]

Bad news for Sunak's campaign: https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/statu...30148170874882

For those who can't/won't view the video, it's from a 2001 BBC documentary about the rise of the middle classes. A young Sunak is talking about his friends and says "I have friends who are aristocrats. I have friends who are upper class. I have friends who are, you know, working class. Well, not working class." He says the last bit with a touch of contempt. Not sure if we should condemn a guy for a flippant comment made in his youth 21 years ago though.

It will be outrageous to those who would never vote Tory but I suspect that majority of people - even those from the working class - won't be all that bothered.

[DarkAmbient]

It is ironic though how it's been the Tories who've led the way in minority representation in government. Look at Dribbles' list above, 4 of the 5 of his preferred candidates are ethnic minorities. But it's true that 'diverse' or black/Asian shouldn't be taken as a synonym for progressive. Asian communities are by and large quite socially conservative despite voting mostly for Labour.

[Kronik85]

It is ironic though how it's been the Tories who've led the way in minority representation in government. Look at Dribbles' list above, 4 of the 5 of his preferred candidates are ethnic minorities. But it's true that 'diverse' or black/Asian shouldn't be taken as a synonym for progressive. Asian communities are by and large quite socially conservative despite voting mostly for Labour.

The BAME community I've known would call every one of them Coconuts. But I'm not all that interested in this particular sidebar of conversation.

To sum up my feelings on the leadership contest, anyone who has taken a ministerial position under BoJo or defended him publicly isn't fit for the job. Which would eliminate virtually all the participants. In which case I'll settle on any of them providing they can run their entire campaign without using the words dignity or integrity because none of them have these qualities or know what they mean.

[Forogil]

And finally advertisers are telling the truth:


But don't despair:

Leading to https://www.kfc.co.uk/careers/westminster

Just in case any former cabinet members need career advice :-)

[Iliena]

Andrea Jenkyns: Minister says she raised her middle finger because of a 'baying mob'


I guess it would be expect too much for her to either resign or be sacked.

[Northern Goblin]

Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi's tax affairs are under investigation by HMRC.

Jesus Christ we are incapable of going a day without a scandal from these incompetents.

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In other news, or possibly related news. Factions within the Conservatives that are running for PM are openly briefing the Labour Party about various dirt and scandals about other potential or declared opponents: https://twitter.com/alexmassie/statu...26444760195072

[Othraerir]

I liked Boris, he made our pollies look sensible

[DarkAmbient]

Jeremy Hunt wants Esther McVey to be his deputy PM. This is almost as bad as when McCain announced Palin would be VP. Esther is a moron. Any notion that Hunt was a safe pair of hands just evaporated.

[Iliena]

Another day and another gobshite Tory: New minister Lia Nici repeats Angela Rayner legs slur

They get more deplorable by the day.

[Pann]

Kimi Badenoch's receives a big boost chances with Gove getting behind her. I must admit I don't know much about her aside from she was involved in Sewell report.

Some thoughts after watching a couple of interviews this morning. I still like Javid and want him to win but I doubt he'll make it to the last two, on the face of it his plans to cut taxes are unworkable nonsense (he is not the only one with bonkers economic plans), he says that a more detailed breakdown will be released later this week but I think he and others need to start being realistic.

Mordaunt's video is crap.

Hunt has probably blown his chances by announcing McVey as his deputy.

Tugendhat had a great answer to what is the naughtiest thing you've ever done.

Boris is gunning for Sunak.

Zahawi has no chance after aligning with Boris and then calling for him to go but he is right to come out fighting against the accusations against him. If they are true then they should have been reported to HMRC as soon as they were known, if they are not they are an outrageous slur that serves no purpose but to ruin his chances.

On the topic of accusations. The briefings and slurs need to stop. And they need to stop now. No-one will trust a PM who won because they sabotaged their opponents.

I still think it is Sunak's lose.

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Truss has just announced her intention to run for leader. I'm not sure what to think of her - she has had some very slick PR behind her for last few months but I have a feeling that the ability doesn't match all the spin.

[Northern Goblin]

Being the front runner in a Tory leadership campaign almost never works out in your favour though.

[Pann]

Being the front runner in a Tory leadership campaign almost never works out in your favour though.

In two of the last three leadership contests the early favourite has gone on to win it, Cameron in 2005 and Johnson in 2019, Johnson was favourite in 2016 but he pulled out early and it was eventually won by May. Obviously time will tell if Sunak can go the distance and it will not be a walk in the park with Johnson against him (JRM was scathing on Andrew Neil this evening).

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Rehman Chishti - no idea either - has now announced his intention to run for leader.

It's all getting a little like Disney Star Wars where all the characters get their own spin-offs!

[dribbles]

In two of the last three leadership contests the early favourite has gone on to win it, Cameron in 2005 and Johnson in 2019, Johnson was favourite in 2016 but he pulled out early and it was eventually won by May. Obviously time will tell if Sunak can go the distance and it will not be a walk in the park with Johnson against him (JRM was scathing on Andrew Neil this evening).

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Rehman Chishti - no idea either - has now announced his intention to run for leader.

It's all getting a little like Disney Star Wars where all the characters get their own spin-offs!

I just saw Andrew Neil on catch up and there is nothing from Rees-Mogg I disagree with.

I would go further than he did and say that if the favourite so far, Rishi "no working class mates" Sunak, wins this contest the Tories have just lost the next General Election.

If, as is likely, Sunak is in the final two run off, then card carrying Conservative members will for the first time in this process get their say on the ultimate winner. I believe they will recognise as I do that GE danger, and come to the conclusion no we are not ready for Rishi.

I do wonder who will be the 2nd of the final two.

[Northern Goblin]

In two of the last three leadership contests the early favourite has gone on to win it, Cameron in 2005 and Johnson in 2019

The original early front runner was Ken Clarke in 2005, it wasn't until it was clear the Eurosceptics would be opposed to him that Cameron stepped in as a more malleable ONC candidate. The only real times the front runner has gone on to win in recent years has been 2019 and 2003, and the latter because no one else ran.

Not a phrase I use often, but Dribbles is right. Sunak is electoral disaster for the Tories. He may be the front runner now among his allies in the party, but his ability to connect with the general public when he graces the pages of the Times Rich List is going to be too large an obstacle.

[Kallisto]

Looks like Priti will throw her had into the ring tomorrow and announce her running too. Looking at all of them it's looking like which disaster do you think will be least damaging.

[Pann]

I just saw Andrew Neil on catch up and there is nothing from Rees-Mogg I disagree with.

I would go further than he did and say that if the favourite so far, Rishi "no working class mates" Sunak, wins this contest the Tories have just lost the next General Election.

If, as is likely, Sunak is in the final two run off, then card carrying Conservative members will for the first time in this process get their say on the ultimate winner. I believe they will recognise as I do that GE danger, and come to the conclusion no we are not ready for Rishi.

I do wonder who will be the 2nd of the final two.

I'm not a great fan of Sunak's - like you I think he was a poor chancellor - but don't think the whole "no working class mates" will go anywhere and honestly if that's the best dirt that can be dug up on him over the last couple of years he's home and dry.

In terms of the next GE I think the big danger to Sunak is that what he appears to putting forward economically sounds very much like austerity and I don't think that the public will go for this. However I think Lab potentially have a problem, whoever takes over, as so much of their current strategy is based around not being Boris Johnson.

We're a long way out from the next election and although nothing have seen so far from any of the leadership candidates convinces me that I should vote Con I will not rule it out as I would have had Johnson continued as leader nor I do think that Sunak would necessarily lose against Starmer.

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The original early front runner was Ken Clarke in 2005, it wasn't until it was clear the Eurosceptics would be opposed to him that Cameron stepped in as a more malleable ONC candidate. The only real times the front runner has gone on to win in recent years has been 2019 and 2003, and the latter because no one else ran.

Not a phrase I use often, but Dribbles is right. Sunak is electoral disaster for the Tories. He may be the front runner now among his allies in the party, but his ability to connect with the general public when he graces the pages of the Times Rich List is going to be too large an obstacle.

No he wasn't. To quote The Guardian; "Bookmakers today made David Cameron odds-on favourite to be the next Tory leader, as nominations opened to succeed Michael Howard." - emphasis mine.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics....conservatives

Also I don't think that they are many who would class the candidate who was eliminated first with the least amount of votes as a front runner.

Sunak will not be an electoral disaster. His ability to connect with you and people who think like you will be non-existent but none of that matters because you're never going to vote for him anyway.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Sunak will not be an electoral disaster. His ability to connect with you and people who think like you will be non-existent but none of that matters because you're never going to vote for him anyway.

You appear to have contracted dribbles ability to ignore reality. I had no idea it was contagious, I'll have to start ignoring his nonsense from a greater distance.

If you think that the Tories can get in without connecting to people other than core Tory voters, I have a bridge to sell you. Literally every election in my voting lifetime has been decided one way or another by people that wouldn't normally have voted for the winners deciding to do so. It's a by-product of our absurd FPTP voting system. To win, Sunak will have to convince enough people to connect to him to leverage their votes to offset those that aren't going to vote for him because he's brown (I'd agree the billionaire thing isn't likely to drive away people that wouldn't have been driven away regardless).

And the economy is going to get worse in the intervening time; especially if they follow the Tory instinct for austerity. The only way to mitigate this is to reverse Brexit to an extent and move to a Norway style deal. None of the front runners appear to be embracing this simple fact, and I'm not sure they could anyway without splintering the party.

So personally, I don't think Sunak will be an electoral disaster simply because of who he is. I believe he will be a disaster, but mainly because of the political and economic situation whoever takes over is about to inherit, and the fact that the Tories simply don't know how to properly run an economy (see the last 40 years for concrete proof of this).

The only thing that can save this country is the Tories being wiped out in the next election, and PR coming in as a result. Anything else, and I won't live to see us drag ourselves up to being on our knees, never mind on our feet.

[Nymrohd]

And the economy is going to get worse in the intervening time; especially if they follow the Tory instinct for austerity. The only way to mitigate this is to reverse Brexit to an extent and move to a Norway style deal. None of the front runners appear to be embracing this simple fact, and I'm not sure they could anyway without splintering the party.

My understanding is that Labour wouldn't do that either. You ain't going to reverse Brexit dude. It's not happening any time this decade.

[Pann]

Reports coming out that the '22 committee will set the threshold at 10% for the first round. This should rapidly cut the number candidates (only Johnson, Hunt and Gove got that many votes in the first round of the last contest), I would have liked to have seen more from some of the lesser known names but given the challenges the country faces at the moment I think it would be sensible to have the new PM in place (and the old one out the door) sooner rather than later.

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Truss has just released her campaign video - https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1546399020754550784 - and it's probably the best one I've seen so far (although this is only the third one I've watched), I can't say I agree with all of her ideas but I like the focus on delivery (or delivery, delivery and delivery as Liz would put it) rather than personality.

Early predictions put her and Sunak as the final and I can well see this happening.

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Ooh, I take it back about Truss' video being the best I have seen, Grant Shapps has channelled his inner Partridge and produced this absolute gem - https://twitter.com/grantshapps/stat...06437567463424

There's no messing around with bullshit pledges to the country just a simple message to Con MPs "I can help you win your seat."

That will take some beating!