Crisis in UK, Can Tories Save Liz Truss?

[dribbles]

@dribbles I don't know whether you've seen this before.

Obviously we have no idea how the polling was conducted so it could be inaccurate but I think it is interesting that she easily beats Sunak and Tugendhat but is virtually neck and neck with Zahawi.

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If anyone is interested there is a policy tracker for the candidates here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...jwY/edit#gid=0

there's also a webpage version - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...=0&single=true

Looking at this is remarkable how little flesh on the bone there is when it comes to some potential candidates' policies.

I hadn't seen that, thanks. Looks like Oh so Priti Patel is about to announce as the favoured ERG candidate, things will change again.

My concern is that there are now so many options on the right it is diluting the resistance to Rishi Sunak and his leftie economic policies. The hope has to be that we all coalesce around the 1 who can stop the disaster of Rishi Sunak.

If we have to have a left wing socialist tax and spend profusely PM it is so important they run under the colour of Labour Red rather than a masquerade in the Tory Blue so that when, as it inevitably will, all goes wrong the correct party for such policy gets the blame.

[Pann]

I hadn't seen that, thanks. Looks like Oh so Priti Patel is about to announce as the favoured ERG candidate, things will change again.

My concern is that there are now so many options on the right it is diluting the resistance to Rishi Sunak and his leftie economic policies. The hope has to be that we all coalesce around the 1 who can stop the disaster of Rishi Sunak.

If we have to have a left wing socialist tax and spend profusely PM it is so important they run under the colour of Labour Red rather than a masquerade in the Tory Blue so that when, as it inevitably will, all goes wrong the correct party for such policy gets the blame.

I think the threshold to get through to the next round will be set quite high which will whittle the bloated field down.

Sunak left economically? From what I have read he was constantly battling Johnson who wanted to spend, spend, spend whilst he wanted to be more prudent. The impression I got from his video is that he is now advocating high taxes until the economy is under control and then he would lower them, I also felt that his plans sounded very close to austerity which I think is a no-go as far being a vote winner so I would expect this stance to soften a bit if he reached office.

I don't expect to hear much until the next round or so but I would really like to know more about the contenders' economic plans.

Don't get me wrong it is not all that uncommon for promises made in leadership contests to be forgotten especially when next GE comes around nor do I expect them to set out their plans in the same detail as if they were running in a GE and I also accept that it is possible they are playing political games when they say that will cut taxes, in order to force Lab or the SNP to either agree with them or admit that they would raise taxes, but I do find it worrying that so many appear to have committed to cutting taxes without an apparent plan to pay for it.

I quite like Javid's idea that he would try to use fiscal headroom to stimulate growth however at present there is no longer enough headroom to use and his ideas look unaffordable without further borrowing. I am not ideologically opposed to more borrowing - especially after the shock of Covid - but I think he really needs to go into more detail and avoid it where possible.

[Huehuecoyotl]

I hadn't seen that, thanks. Looks like Oh so Priti Patel is about to announce as the favoured ERG candidate, things will change again.

My concern is that there are now so many options on the right it is diluting the resistance to Rishi Sunak and his leftie economic policies. The hope has to be that we all coalesce around the 1 who can stop the disaster of Rishi Sunak.

If we have to have a left wing socialist tax and spend profusely PM it is so important they run under the colour of Labour Red rather than a masquerade in the Tory Blue so that when, as it inevitably will, all goes wrong the correct party for such policy gets the blame.

Still repeating the lie that the Tories are economically competent, eh? Have a look at what's happened to the debt in the last 13 years. Or are you going to blame that on the previous Labour administration, still?

The Tories have almost NEVER paid down the debt. That only happens under Labour. All they know how to do is cut tax, sell off publically owned services and put money in their own pockets. And this latest lot haven't even managed the cut tax part of that.

The Tories are the ones that are economically illiterate, always have been. They just have billionaire funded PR to keep repeating the lie that it's Labour that are.

[Northern Goblin]

Debt is merely an existing statistic based on the deficit, which the Tories did get to zero pre pandemic.

The deficit is like a burst water pipe, the debt is how much water is in your lounge. Cant resolve the latter till you address the former.

Also Patel would be a disaster as the Eurosceptic candidate. At least get a candidate that hasn't abused their staff. The likelier she looks to being the front candidate the more the ghosts of that unresolved story will come out.

[Pann]

Debt is merely an existing statistic based on the deficit, which the Tories did get to zero pre pandemic.

The deficit is like a burst water pipe, the debt is how much water is in your lounge. Cant resolve the latter till you address the former.

Also Patel would be a disaster as the Eurosceptic candidate. At least get a candidate that hasn't abused their staff. The likelier she looks to being the front candidate the more the ghosts of that unresolved story will come out.

This is absolutely spot on and a very good analogy.

Also agreed that Patel would be a poor candidate I think she will probably get through the first round but I doubt she get close to winning.

[Lynarii]

It’s exactly the same in Australia, absolute dipshits believe the “superior economic management” of our tory governments, but they’ve been provably dogshit, only delusional idiots buy into the rhetoric. Sounds like the UK has the same dropkicks with room temperature IQ trying to come across as politically literate.

I think the disconnect is in how you define 'superior economic management'. The conservative position is that you're supposed to take money away from the general population and give it to the plutocrats. So when the conservative parties do that, it's working as intended, and they can claim that IS good economic management. Conversely, things like paying down public debt and improving government services are poor economics, because how does that help billionaire 'job creators'?

[Huehuecoyotl]

Debt is merely an existing statistic based on the deficit, which the Tories did get to zero pre pandemic.

The deficit is like a burst water pipe, the debt is how much water is in your lounge. Cant resolve the latter till you address the former.

Also Patel would be a disaster as the Eurosceptic candidate. At least get a candidate that hasn't abused their staff. The likelier she looks to being the front candidate the more the ghosts of that unresolved story will come out.

Feel free to point me to the year in which the deficit was zero. Because I'm pretty sure you are lying. In fact I know you are; they got into power promising that their austerity measures would clear the deficit in 5 years. Before Covid, there was STILL a deficit, and the debt had ballooned by a trillion pounds. Even as austerity was failing to close the deficit (which was already starting to close before the Tories got into power) they carried on with it. Following it with the same fervour that the right have been following trickle down economics for the past how many decades?

They kept standing on the notion that they could close the deficit in 5 years, and that 5 years kept moving back. And they stuck to the same principles that weren't working. It only really started to close properly when they started spending more; hiring more police and so on. Trying to undo the near decade of damage they'd done themselves. Getting it down to 1.8% of GDP in 2018/2019, and 2.6% of GDP in 2019/2020. Both well above the average that the Labour government experienced between taking power and the crash of 2008. But before Covid meant that all bets were off.

There is NOTHING in history that suggests they'll do any better this time, because sensible financial planning isn't in their interests. Clearly they don't need to manage the economy well for some people to believe they can, and their main intent is ensuring that their sponsors get more and more of the pie.

Anything else you'd like to share about Tory achievements?

[Pann]

1922 committee rules that candidates must have the backing of 20 MPs to progress to the first round. They will then need 30 votes to progress further. The result is due to be announced on 5th Sept when the house returns.

First and second round votes will take place this week. The aim is that it will down to the final two by the summer recess on 21st July.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...?sref=yMmXm5Iy

Number of public endorsements each candidate has acquired so far.



I think Chisthi (obviously), Braverman, Badenoch and maybe Patel will not reach the next round. Things aren't looking good for Javid but I think he'll just scrape through.

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Conservative Home have released their latest leadership race survey. The results are interesting to say the least - I will have to re-evaluate my prediction for Badenoch.

https://conservativehome.com/2022/07...eight-hundred/

[dribbles]

1922 committee rules that candidates must have the backing of 20 MPs to progress to the first round. They will then need 30 votes to progress further. The result is due to be announced on 5th Sept when the house returns.

First and second round votes will take place this week. The aim is that it will down to the final two by the summer recess on 21st July.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...?sref=yMmXm5Iy

Number of public endorsements each candidate has acquired so far.

I think Chisthi (obviously), Braverman, Badenoch and maybe Patel will not reach the next round. Things aren't looking good for Javid but I think he'll just scrape through.

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Conservative Home have released their latest leadership race survey. The results are interesting to say the least - I will have to re-evaluate my prediction for Badenoch.

https://conservativehome.com/2022/07...eight-hundred/

There's a bit of naughtiness going on with Kemi Badenoch according to the stop Rishi campaign supposedly...

Mr Gove is supporting Kemi Badenoch, most believe he is running her campaign.

The Westminster gossip - and it is only gossip among a group of people who live on gossip - is that the reason for the campaign is to split the right of the party which may otherwise have backed Attorney General Suella Braverman or perhaps Home Secretary Priti Patel and ensure they have no candidate in the final reckoning.

Several MPs have claimed that eventually the plan is to “rolling Kemi’s campaign into Rishi’s” which provides yet more ammunition for the “anybody but Rishi” crowd.


https://www.express.co.uk/comment/ex...nister-comment

It's getting worse.

[Edge-]

Man, so...the untrustworthy conservatives are engaged in more dishonest bullshit in the immediate aftermath of their dishonest party leader/PM finally resigning after months of scandals caused by his repeat dishonesty?

I'm beginning to thing that the conservative party has some serious issues with honesty.

[Pann]

There's a bit of naughtiness going on with Kemi Badenoch according to the stop Rishi campaign supposedly...

Mr Gove is supporting Kemi Badenoch, most believe he is running her campaign.

The Westminster gossip - and it is only gossip among a group of people who live on gossip - is that the reason for the campaign is to split the right of the party which may otherwise have backed Attorney General Suella Braverman or perhaps Home Secretary Priti Patel and ensure they have no candidate in the final reckoning.

Several MPs have claimed that eventually the plan is to “rolling Kemi’s campaign into Rishi’s” which provides yet more ammunition for the “anybody but Rishi” crowd.


https://www.express.co.uk/comment/ex...nister-comment

It's getting worse.

I really don't understand this anyone but Sunak business. There's no rhyme nor reason to it. It reeks of the air of bitter ex-lover.

I imagine that Gove is running her campaign or at the very least has a very strong involvement in its direction. There are very few MPs in the Con party with stature of Gove and he is in a position where he does not need to care what the majority of his fellow MPs think. If he wanted to back Rishi he'd do so, I don't think he'd sneak around pretending not to support him nor would it be out of the ordinary for the supporters of an eliminated candidate to get behind one of the remaining candidates so I don't think it would be evidence of some nefarious plot if he did end up backing Sunak in the last round(s).

I think it is probably more likely that Gove recognises Badenoch as prospect for the future and wanted to boost her profile in this campaign.

Let's face it neither Braverman or Patel are serious contenders so I am not sure where the complaints about splitting the right come from or why they are being directed at Sunak and not Braverman or Patel. And if the right are that concerned why can't they agree to back one of the two? It seems like they're getting their excuses in early to me.

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Labour are to push for a vote of no confidence after it is announced Johnson will remain PM until a new leader is appointed on 5th September.

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/stat...12260814061568

Seeing as this will require a number of Con MPs to vote against their party and the government it is a monumental waste of everyone's time. Student level politics.

[Northern Goblin]

Feel free to point me to the year in which the deficit was zero. Because I'm pretty sure you are lying. In fact I know you are; they got into power promising that their austerity measures would clear the deficit in 5 years.

Lying would be inaccurate, I'd not remembered pre covid correctly. Hammond as chancellor when the deficit fell below 2% had predicted it would be wiped out shortly, then the pandemic hit.

Edit: https://www.theguardian.com/business...-autumn-budget

I knew I wasn't entirely misremembering. By the midpoint of 2018 we had a £2 billion surplus.

Now criticising them for taking so long to wipe out the deficit with punishing austerity measures is entirely fair game, but until covid the deficit they inherited continued to shrink. So naturally debt would rise, but they can point to Labour and say it was the mess they inherited, but they were working to reduce it.

Debt is such a trap card in politics, so easy to play and even easier to get uno reversed. Go after deficit, especially when they've gone through measures to reduce it that were not as effective as they claimed they would be.


Labour to table a motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister tomorrow with a vote expected on Wednesday. Expected to fail, but it'll be interesting to have Conservative names on record backing Johnson while they're telling him to go.

Would also be a counter to the "you campaigned for Corbyn to be in #10" line.

[Pann]

A list of how the wider electorate see the candidates has been compiled.



@dribbles this is why, in my opinion, the anyone but Sunak wing of the party need to drop it. Not only are the Con party electing their next leader and our PM, they are electing the person who will lead them into the next election and as a result they need to choose the person who has the best chance of leading to victory which as things stand is Rishi Sunak. If they want to muck around and elect someone from the right or sabotage candidates they don't like then they need to accept that they will be in opposition come next GE.

Interesting predictions from Patrick Flynn

https://twitter.com/patrickjfl/statu...VTHd0TAUwZMkEA

I'm sorry to see that Javid is predicted to be eliminated so early but I have a feeling that the prediction of the last two is accurate.

[dribbles]

A list of how the wider electorate see the candidates has been compiled.

@dribbles this is why, in my opinion, the anyone but Sunak wing of the party need to drop it. Not only are the Con party electing their next leader and our PM, they are electing the person who will lead them into the next election and as a result they need to choose the person who has the best chance of leading to victory which as things stand is Rishi Sunak. If they want to muck around and elect someone from the right or sabotage candidates they don't like then they need to accept that they will be in opposition come next GE.

Interesting predictions from Patrick Flynn

https://twitter.com/patrickjfl/statu...VTHd0TAUwZMkEA

I'm sorry to see that Javid is predicted to be eliminated so early but I have a feeling that the prediction of the last two is accurate.

I would agree with likely Sunak and Mordaunt as the last two, although with Boris all but saying he supports Liz Truss maybe she will do a bit of catch up on Mordaunt today.

Rishi Sunak may be popular with MP's, but as you and I agree he was an awful chancellor, he is not in my opinion a Conservative chancellor and the question remains by the members will he be an awful Prime Minister and not a Conservative one.

He is not well liked by the members of the Tory party who will choose the next PM and as such I think Mordaunt/Truss will come through in the final against Sunak. Perhaps afterwards when Sunak loses the final he can find his natural home and swap to the Labour Party where he belongs.

Irrespective of the next General Election it would be dishonest of the Tory party to anoint Sunak just because he might be best placed to beat Starmer. If that costs us the next GE so be it, it is refreshing to see such honesty in politics going forwards compared to what has gone on before...

[Pann]

I would agree with likely Sunak and Mordaunt as the last two, although with Boris all but saying he supports Liz Truss maybe she will do a bit of catch up on Mordaunt today.

Rishi Sunak may be popular with MP's, but as you and I agree he was an awful chancellor, he is not in my opinion a Conservative chancellor and the question remains by the members will he be an awful Prime Minister and not a Conservative one.

He is not well liked by the members of the Tory party who will choose the next PM and as such I think Mordaunt/Truss will come through in the final against Sunak. Perhaps afterwards when Sunak loses the final he can find his natural home and swap to the Labour Party where he belongs.

Irrespective of the next General Election it would be dishonest of the Tory party to anoint Sunak just because he might be best placed to beat Starmer. If that costs us the next GE so be it, it is refreshing to see such honesty in politics going forwards compared to what has gone on before...

I don't think he was a good chancellor but I don't think he was not a Con chancellor. I think to a certain extent he was a victim of circumstance which required action that in normal times you would not associate with the Cons but his desire to pay off the debt as soon as possible strike as traditional Tory policy.

I'm not saying you're wrong - I haven't really looked into it in any depth - but I am not so sure that he is all that disliked by party members, there is most certainly a vocal crowd that do dislike him but I am not sure how widespread this view is.

I don't think that Sunak is the only candidate who could beat Starmer - I think there are 4 or 5 that could (and before I get the usual barrage of nonsense I am not saying that he or any other candidate will beat Starmer only that they stand a reasonable chance) - but sooner or later MPs and members have to start looking at the big picture and decide whether they want they to challenge at the next election or have their preferred candidate as leader and be in opposition.

The risk they are taking, in my opinion, with all this anti-Rishi stuff is that they end up poisoning the well to such an extent that get not only a leader who is not their preferred choice but one that is also not capable of delivering a victory at the next GE.



Oh I've just seen that Shapps has pulled out. Probably for the best.

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I see Nadine has at it again she reckons Liz Truss is a "stronger Brexiteer" than Jacob Rees-Mogg.

They say a picture paints a thousand words so I'll just leave this here...

[dribbles]

I don't think he was a good chancellor but I don't think he was not a Con chancellor. I think to a certain extent he was a victim of circumstance which required action that in normal times you would not associate with the Cons but his desire to pay off the debt as soon as possible strike as traditional Tory policy.

I'm not saying you're wrong - I haven't really looked into it in any depth - but I am not so sure that he is all that disliked by party members, there is most certainly a vocal crowd that do dislike him but I am not sure how widespread this view is.

I don't think that Sunak is the only candidate who could beat Starmer - I think there are 4 or 5 that could (and before I get the usual barrage of nonsense I am not saying that he or any other candidate will beat Starmer only that they stand a reasonable chance) - but sooner or later MPs and members have to start looking at the big picture and decide whether they want they to challenge at the next election or have their preferred candidate as leader and be in opposition.

The risk they are taking, in my opinion, with all this anti-Rishi stuff is that they end up poisoning the well to such an extent that get not only a leader who is not their preferred choice but one that is also not capable of delivering a victory at the next GE.



Oh I've just seen that Shapps has pulled out. Probably for the best.

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I see Nadine has at it again she reckons Liz Truss is a "stronger Brexiteer" than Jacob Rees-Mogg.

They say a picture paints a thousand words so I'll just leave this here...

I'm possibly a bit biased like many Tory supporters, I can't forgive Rishi Sunak for knifing our Boris. But the idiot Tory MP's who made up the herd that did it should have thought of that before they got rid of him. Part of me wishes retribution on the Tory party for behaving so despicably in the form of a short term in opposition. So there's that...

Also, though I hate to mention the B word in this thread, Keir Starmer played a blinder in clearly coming out in support of Brexit. That has allowed me the freedom to safely choose from across the political spectrum at the next General Election rather than be blinkered and bound to the Tories.

I really am enjoying that. Silly Tories, if only they had left Boris alone, I bet soon they will wish they had...

[Pann]

I'm possibly a bit biased like many Tory supporters, I can't forgive Rishi Sunak for knifing our Boris. But the idiot Tory MP's who made up the herd that did it should have thought of that before they got rid of him. Part of me wishes retribution on the Tory party for behaving so despicably in the form of a short term in opposition. So there's that...

Also, though I hate to mention the B word in this thread, Keir Starmer played a blinder in clearly coming out in support of Brexit. That has allowed me the freedom to safely choose from across the political spectrum at the next General Election rather than be blinkered and bound to the Tories.

I really am enjoying that. Silly Tories, if only they had left Boris alone, I bet soon they will wish they had...

Our biases are what make politics fun.

From my perspective you cannot blame Sunak, or anyone else who resigned, for Johnson's fate. Johnson lurched from one poorly handled scandal to another and this was just the straw that broke the camel's back from my point of view if they are to be criticised it should for going along with it for so long not finally taking action.

I don't think he has come out in support of Brexit to be honest rather he's recognised that it is a dead issue and that the majority of voters would prefer politicians got on with trying to make it work instead of trying to go over old ground.

Personally I think Johnson going is one of the best things that could have happened to British politics. I also think that Johnson will end up happier in the long run and if, as I expect, he ends up leaving politics his earning potential should be at a level that he will be able to provide all the gaudy wallpaper Carrie desires.


I've just seen Badenoch on the news, I have to say I'm quite impressed I think she is most definitely one for the future.

[Northern Goblin]

I like Badenoch's approach, it's a good attempt at putting discussion on the current state of the Conservative party and if it should reinvent itself, or at least move in another direction.

Because the way things are clearly isn't working.

[Huehuecoyotl]

but his desire to pay off the debt as soon as possible strike as traditional Tory policy.

Only one year since Thatcher was elected, has a Tory government paid off any of the debt. Please explain how "pay off the debt" is a traditional Tory policy. Or stop lying about it. Dealers choice.

Oh, and Thatcher literally only managed it by selling off the family silver. Ironic considering she kept wittering on about running the country like a corner shop. The woman was a cretin.

[Elegiac]

I like Badenoch's approach, it's a good attempt at putting discussion on the current state of the Conservative party and if it should reinvent itself, or at least move in another direction.

Because the way things are clearly isn't working.

Only direction the Conservative Party should be going is "in the rubbish where it belongs".

The Anglosphere doesn't quite seem to have internalized the fact the paradigm shift of the 1980s has resulted in abject failure on every policy front. Every single promise made regarding things like social programs, administration, and hell even militarization has proved to be a lie designed primarily to cover a massive funneling of wealth into an increasingly small number of hands.

"Conservatism" is not a solution because there's little to nothing they've delivered over the past forty years worth conserving.