1. #1041
    The Undying Slowpoke is a Gamer's Avatar
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    Packers come one blocked kick away from tying a 3rd string QB. Honestly, if you put the Packers in the AFC I'd call them a .500 team, yet in the NFC they're probably the 3rd-5th best team.
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  2. #1042
    Quote Originally Posted by xskarma View Post
    This is still a loss, and a loss is bad, but, the job to take on Rodgers and the Packers, at Lambeau, with your 3rd string QB, and then somehow take them to OT is just absurd. One of Belichick's and the coaching staff's finest efforts within a game that I have ever seen.

    If Mac is still out next week, just roll with Zappe as the QB1, and see what happens with a full week to prepare, cause the game definitely didn't seem to big for him on short notice.
    The Packers seemed to be having their way with the Patriots defense in the run game. I'd say this was close because Rodgers doesn't have a true #1 he trusts and the Patriots had a few lucky breaks (the pick six that Rodgers normally never throws and the pats touchdown that should of been a penalty). I was disappointed with the play calling at the end of the game. I get that they don't really trust the rookie third string qb, but when you are that predictable you are setting him up for failure.

  3. #1043
    Scarab Lord MCMLXXXII's Avatar
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    Good to see Mahomes can still make mistakes in this game.

  4. #1044
    Quote Originally Posted by NotBigzo View Post
    Bills fans are as bad as bengals fans.

    Or Crystal when she's into her games.
    By "watch" I mean check box scores on my phone. The game was not televised here. I was going fishing regardless.

    But enough justifying myself to some random dude on the internet. Bills won. Yay!
    Bandwagon sports fans can eat a bag of http://www.ddir.com/ .

  5. #1045
    Quote Originally Posted by Kyanion View Post
    Ravens go for it on 4th and goal instead of taking the lead with a FG. Like I love going for it on 4th down just as much as the other guy but sometimes it isn't a bad play to take the easy 3.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kyanion View Post
    Baltimore deserved that loss. Next time kick the fucking field goal instead of going for it on 4th.
    Baltimore had the 32nd rated pass defense in the league, and, despite their strong start, had been ground down by Allen in the 2nd half. There's no way they stopped the Bills from scoring a TD to win if they scored the 3 points.

    Hell, the Bills drove 78 yards in like.....1 minute (edit, sorry, 2 minutes). We had the ability to get a 1st at the two of Baltimore with like more than a minute left. Our RB smartly went down when Baltimore was giving him the end zone so they could get the ball back. We had 2nd and short, we just did a QB sneak to get the first, then literally KNELT IT TWICE ON THEIR 1 AND A HALF YARD LINE so we could kick a FG as time expired.

    The 4th and goal was their only shot.

    TBF, though, there was a rather specious roughing the passer call on that last drive for Buffalo that should have never been called, in which case the 3 points would have been handy, because had they forced the 4th down there, we'd still have been in range for a long game-winning FG instead of a long game-tying field goal.

    Here's the play-by-play of the 4 minutes at the end of the game after the INT on 4th down in the endzone. A masterclass in poise and killing the game. Even the RTP didn't matter much, it happened on 1st down and I have no doubt we would have gotten the 15 elsewhere:

    1st & 10 at BUF 20
    (4:07 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short middle to S.Diggs to BUF 24 for 4 yards (P.Queen).

    2nd & 6 at BUF 24
    (3:35 - 4th) (No Huddle) D.Singletary right tackle to BUF 28 for 4 yards (B.Washington; J.Pierre-Paul).

    3rd & 2 at BUF 28
    (2:59 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep right to D.Knox pushed ob at BUF 48 for 20 yards (M.Williams).

    1st & 10 at BUF 48
    (2:52 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen scrambles right end to BLT 45 for 7 yards (O.Oweh; J.Madubuike).

    2nd & 3 at BAL 45
    (2:14 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to K.Shakir pushed ob at BLT 36 for 9 yards.

    1st & 10 at BAL 36
    (2:04 - 4th) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF-D.Dawkins, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BLT 36 - No Play.

    1st & 15 at BAL 41
    (2:05 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short right to D.Singletary. PENALTY on BLT-B.Stephens, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BLT 41 - No Play.

    1st & 10 at BAL 26
    (2:03 - 4th) (Shotgun) D.Singletary left guard to BLT 27 for -1 yards (P.Queen).

    (2:03 - 4th) Two-Minute Warning

    2nd & 11 at BAL 27
    (2:00 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to D.Singletary to BLT 11 for 16 yards (J.Pierre-Paul).

    (2:00 - 4th) Timeout #2 by BLT at 01:50.

    1st & 10 at BAL 11
    (1:50 - 4th) B.Hart reported in as eligible. D.Singletary left guard to BLT 3 for 8 yards (O.Oweh).
    This is the play they tried to let Singletary score on, he basically dropped to the ground at the 3

    (1:50 - 4th) Timeout #3 by BLT at 01:43.

    2nd & 2 at BAL 3
    (1:43 - 4th) J.Allen left guard to BLT 1 for 2 yards (C.Campbell; C.Clark).

    1st & Goal at BAL 1
    (1:01 - 4th) J.Allen kneels to BLT 2 for -1 yards.

    2nd & Goal at BAL 2
    (0:33 - 4th) J.Allen kneels to BLT 3 for -1 yards.

    (0:33 - 4th) Timeout #1 by BUF at 00:03.

    3rd & Goal at BAL 3
    (0:00 - 4th) T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-S.Martin.
    Last edited by eschatological; 2022-10-03 at 04:23 AM.

  6. #1046
    Quote Originally Posted by eschatological View Post
    Baltimore had the 32nd rated pass defense in the league, and, despite their strong start, had been ground down by Allen in the 2nd half. There's no way they stopped the Bills from scoring a TD to win if they scored the 3 points.
    We can agree to disagree. Taking the 3 points was the right move there in my mind. You gave up three points in a time game so that means you lose if the other team kicks a field goal. Not a great idea to me.

  7. #1047
    Fluffy Kitten Pendulous's Avatar
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    The Lions have the number one scoring offense in the NFL.

  8. #1048
    Quote Originally Posted by Kyanion View Post
    We can agree to disagree. Taking the 3 points was the right move there in my mind. You gave up three points in a time game so that means you lose if the other team kicks a field goal. Not a great idea to me.
    For what it's worth--the analytical answer is this: Going for a TD had a win probability of 73.5%, while kicking the field goal was 69.7%.

    It was defensible to do what Harbaugh did (hindsight of course being another story)--but to the argument here: close enough that it's a bit of splitting hairs and certainly up for debate on the best decision (I'm on the "go for it" camp--the Ravens defense is atrocious).

  9. #1049
    Quote Originally Posted by Pendulous View Post
    The Lions have the number one scoring offense in the NFL.
    Yet they still have a negative point differential because their defense is by far the worst scoring defense.

  10. #1050
    Quote Originally Posted by Pendulous View Post
    The Lions have the number one scoring offense in the NFL.
    How is it that defensive minded coaches like Campbell, if they ever break out with a good team, do so on offense.

    Like, our coach is defensive-minded, yet he helms one of the most offensively talented teams in the league.

  11. #1051
    Quote Originally Posted by eschatological View Post
    How is it that defensive minded coaches like Campbell, if they ever break out with a good team, do so on offense.

    Like, our coach is defensive-minded, yet he helms one of the most offensively talented teams in the league.
    Campbell played TE, was never a coordinator and only coached TEs. I don't think he is defensive minded.

  12. #1052
    Quote Originally Posted by Espo View Post
    For what it's worth--the analytical answer is this: Going for a TD had a win probability of 73.5%, while kicking the field goal was 69.7%.
    So not getting the TD and keeping a tie game instead of a 3 point lead was the right call? K, I'm sure they can be comforted in that data while they are sucking down that loss. We're talking 3.8% points, but we're also talking about a 23-20 lead meaning that a Buffalo field goal is overtime and if they get a TD they win. Instead Baltimore tried to get the TD to force Buffalo to also get a TD. Buffalo could have won with a TD in regulation + 2pt even if Baltimore did get their TD. That game wasn't automatically going to OT. I dunno just does not feel great to fail to get the TD meaning the game stayed tied and you lose on a field goal drive.

    I do have a question though. What analytics are being used here? Like what data is being used to come up with these numbers? How old is the data going back to form these numbers? Like are we using data from over 10 years ago combined with modern era data? Because 'going for it on 4th' has been evolving with data and I want to know what data is being used here.
    Last edited by Kyanion; 2022-10-03 at 04:31 PM.

  13. #1053
    Quote Originally Posted by xskarma View Post
    This is still a loss, and a loss is bad, but, the job to take on Rodgers and the Packers, at Lambeau, with your 3rd string QB, and then somehow take them to OT is just absurd. One of Belichick's and the coaching staff's finest efforts within a game that I have ever seen.

    If Mac is still out next week, just roll with Zappe as the QB1, and see what happens with a full week to prepare, cause the game definitely didn't seem to big for him on short notice.
    The defense and that pick 6 definitely made this game seem winnable at time. Overtime is always awkward and it played out just like you would expect.

  14. #1054
    Quote Originally Posted by Kyanion View Post
    So not getting the TD and keeping a tie game instead of a 3 point lead was the right call? K, I'm sure they can be comforted in that data while they are sucking down that loss.
    Forgive my harshness--but what you're doing here is illogical. You can't argue the decision, after-the-fact, with the benefit of hindsight in the form of the actual outcome of said decision. Everyone makes the right decision if they have the benefit of knowing the future. The only thing that matters in a predictive model is the information you have available at the time of the decision--and that supposedly said it was the right call (to be fair--a defensible call, maybe not "right"). A 73% chance is not a 100% chance--sometimes you lose the dice roll, just as you could have lost the Justin Tucker and subsequent defense dice roll.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyanion View Post
    We're talking 3.8% points, but we're also talking about a 23-20 lead meaning that a Buffalo field goal is overtime and if they get a TD they win. Instead Baltimore tried to get the TD to force Buffalo to also get a TD. Buffalo could have won with a TD in regulation + 2pt even if Baltimore did get their TD. That game wasn't automatically going to OT. I dunno just does not feel great to fail to get the TD meaning the game stayed tied and you lose on a field goal drive.
    This is factored into the win probability of said decisions. But agree in what I think you're implying on the 3.8%--very minor difference; splitting hairs.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyanion View Post
    I do have a question though. What analytics are being used here? Like what data is being used to come up with these numbers? How old is the data going back to form these numbers? Like are we using data from over 10 years ago combined with modern era data? Because 'going for it on 4th' has been evolving with data and I want to know what data is being used here.
    There are a bunch of win probability models--and there also may be conflicting ones not just in terms of percents but also which decision was right/wrong. That said--this was grabbed from ESPN's (https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...est-chance-win). It's tough to track down information about it in a centralized format, but my understanding is the algorithm has significant amounts of historical data and it analyzes all similar historical situations to create a distribution of potential outcomes, which are leveraged to create the win probability of a scenario. Something interesting I was able to find is that the algorithm does not distinguish players--e.g. it does not factor in Lamar Jackson being who he is. It can factor in the stats of the teams and players in said outcomes, but not the X factor of Tom Brady being clutch, blah blah. But anyway--if you can find anything centralized on it--I'd love to see it. I can't find much more than what I shared. So there's certainly some 'leap of faith' in terms of trusting their algorithm--but also the acceptance that is absolutely not perfect. It's trying to predict the future, after all.

    But similar to what I said--I agree that this is a really debatable call. I just don't think Harbaugh should be roasted because it didn't work out. It was defensible, at the time. This isn't some slam dunk decision. The outcome isn't always the best way to judge a decision. I can run across a highway and live, but that doesn't mean my decision-making is top notch.

  15. #1055
    LOL.

    Raven's secondary is grade A Ass right now. Harbaugh didn't trust them to hold Allen and CO out of field goal range when it mattered.

    He made that call because he didn't trust his defense. "Analyctics" be damned.

  16. #1056
    Quote Originally Posted by Kyanion View Post

    I do have a question though. What analytics are being used here? Like what data is being used to come up with these numbers? How old is the data going back to form these numbers? Like are we using data from over 10 years ago combined with modern era data? Because 'going for it on 4th' has been evolving with data and I want to know what data is being used here.
    It's a combination of the %success on the TD or FG in comparison to %chance to win if it fails or succeeds. It accounts for down, distance, and time left in the game, and obviously the score.

    So, for example, on that particular play, 4th and 2 with 4 minutes left in the game: a TD had a 47% chance of success, while a FG from that distance had 99%.

    But the model comes out in favor of the TD because if you succeed on the TD, you have a 83% chance to win the game, while the successful FG only means you have a 63% chance to win (and you already had a 63% chance to win before the kick). Failure on the TD is obvious worse, and much more likely than a failure on the FG, but the model is balancing the potential upside vs. downside. Here's the graphic:


    (source: https://twitter.com/ben_bot_baldwin/...61041043410945)

  17. #1057
    The Insane draynay's Avatar
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    Also interesting is that failing on the TD should give them the ball on the 2, throwing the pick and giving it to them on the 20 was a disaster.
    /s

  18. #1058
    Quote Originally Posted by eschatological View Post
    It's a combination of the %success on the TD or FG in comparison to %chance to win if it fails or succeeds. It accounts for down, distance, and time left in the game, and obviously the score.

    So, for example, on that particular play, 4th and 2 with 4 minutes left in the game: a TD had a 47% chance of success, while a FG from that distance had 99%.

    But the model comes out in favor of the TD because if you succeed on the TD, you have a 83% chance to win the game, while the successful FG only means you have a 63% chance to win (and you already had a 63% chance to win before the kick). Failure on the TD is obvious worse, and much more likely than a failure on the FG, but the model is balancing the potential upside vs. downside. Here's the graphic:


    (source: https://twitter.com/ben_bot_baldwin/...61041043410945)
    Worth noting that this is not the same as the ESPN one (which more heavily favored going for it)--which shows the inconsistency that'll pop up between various models (who knows what the Ravens' internal one said--or if it was even used). Thanks for sharing this though--a good reminder how cool the 4th down bot is.

    My favorite are the comments saying "this is wrong, I don't care" or "this is stupid" from folks who just refuse to accept math.

    Why I don't really understand the heat on Harbaugh though--Buffalo got down to the Baltimore 3 with 1:43 left. The interception comment above is an interesting consideration, but I'm not sure 18 extra yards was going to matter with that much time. Funny enough, kicking the field goal probably just puts them at the 20 and a similar spot. They were going to lose anyway without putting a TD on the board.

  19. #1059
    The Insane draynay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Espo View Post
    Why I don't really understand the heat on Harbaugh though--Buffalo got down to the Baltimore 3 with 1:43 left. The interception comment above is an interesting consideration, but I'm not sure 18 extra yards was going to matter with that much time. Funny enough, kicking the field goal probably just puts them at the 20 and a similar spot. They were going to lose anyway without putting a TD on the board.
    They're 18 of the most important yards on the field, the plays you run from the 20 are radically different than what you run from the 2.
    /s

  20. #1060
    The Undying Slowpoke is a Gamer's Avatar
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    Good news that shouldn't be news, Tua is out next week.
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