2022-2023 NFL Thread

[Espo]

It's a combination of the %success on the TD or FG in comparison to %chance to win if it fails or succeeds. It accounts for down, distance, and time left in the game, and obviously the score.

So, for example, on that particular play, 4th and 2 with 4 minutes left in the game: a TD had a 47% chance of success, while a FG from that distance had 99%.

But the model comes out in favor of the TD because if you succeed on the TD, you have a 83% chance to win the game, while the successful FG only means you have a 63% chance to win (and you already had a 63% chance to win before the kick). Failure on the TD is obvious worse, and much more likely than a failure on the FG, but the model is balancing the potential upside vs. downside. Here's the graphic:


(source: https://twitter.com/ben_bot_baldwin/...61041043410945)

Worth noting that this is not the same as the ESPN one (which more heavily favored going for it)--which shows the inconsistency that'll pop up between various models (who knows what the Ravens' internal one said--or if it was even used). Thanks for sharing this though--a good reminder how cool the 4th down bot is.

My favorite are the comments saying "this is wrong, I don't care" or "this is stupid" from folks who just refuse to accept math.

Why I don't really understand the heat on Harbaugh though--Buffalo got down to the Baltimore 3 with 1:43 left. The interception comment above is an interesting consideration, but I'm not sure 18 extra yards was going to matter with that much time. Funny enough, kicking the field goal probably just puts them at the 20 and a similar spot. They were going to lose anyway without putting a TD on the board.

[draynay]

Why I don't really understand the heat on Harbaugh though--Buffalo got down to the Baltimore 3 with 1:43 left. The interception comment above is an interesting consideration, but I'm not sure 18 extra yards was going to matter with that much time. Funny enough, kicking the field goal probably just puts them at the 20 and a similar spot. They were going to lose anyway without putting a TD on the board.

They're 18 of the most important yards on the field, the plays you run from the 20 are radically different than what you run from the 2.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

Good news that shouldn't be news, Tua is out next week.

[Grube]

More good news for people that are going to suffer through whatever the TNF game is going to be, Javonte Williams tore is ACL, LCL and something else that I don't know what it is. Going to see a lot of Melvin Gordon, so there might be some points scored from fumble return TDs.

[Kyanion]

Forgive my harshness--but what you're doing here is illogical. You can't argue the decision, after-the-fact

No, I said it in the moment. When they went for it, it was stupid. It was a 20-20 game, it wasn't like it was Detroit/Seattle and defense was optional. It was the wrong choice, they fucked up and guess what they lost again. They cost themselves games last year doing shit like this. Since when is taking points and going ahead in the game with 4 minutes to go a BAD thing? It fucking isn't.

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LOL.

Raven's secondary is grade A Ass right now. Harbaugh didn't trust them to hold Allen and CO out of field goal range when it mattered.

He made that call because he didn't trust his defense. "Analyctics" be damned.

Yes so grade A Ass it was a 20-20 game with 4 minutes to go. Great analysis there.

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There are a bunch of win probability models--and there also may be conflicting ones not just in terms of percents but also which decision was right/wrong. That said--this was grabbed from ESPN's (https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...est-chance-win). It's tough to track down information about it in a centralized format, but my understanding is the algorithm has significant amounts of historical data and it analyzes all similar historical situations to create a distribution of potential outcomes, which are leveraged to create the win probability of a scenario. Something interesting I was able to find is that the algorithm does not distinguish players--e.g. it does not factor in Lamar Jackson being who he is. It can factor in the stats of the teams and players in said outcomes, but not the X factor of Tom Brady being clutch, blah blah. But anyway--if you can find anything centralized on it--I'd love to see it. I can't find much more than what I shared. So there's certainly some 'leap of faith' in terms of trusting their algorithm--but also the acceptance that is absolutely not perfect. It's trying to predict the future, after all.

But similar to what I said--I agree that this is a really debatable call. I just don't think Harbaugh should be roasted because it didn't work out. It was defensible, at the time. This isn't some slam dunk decision. The outcome isn't always the best way to judge a decision. I can run across a highway and live, but that doesn't mean my decision-making is top notch.

So 'historical data' using what, data from 10-30 years ago when coaches were timid and only went for it on 4th down when they basically had to. I'm sure tainted data like that is very useful. I want to know WHAT this data is, just how far does it go back exactly.

Harbaugh should be roasted because he routinely does this shit and it burns his team. Last year they lost 2 games by going for 2 point conversions at the end of games and failed, thus losing the games. I PERSONALLY think going for 2 in a tie game is the right choice in many situations, but it really does depend on the teams involved. I sure as fuck don't apply blanket data from all teams when I'd think what I would do in a given situation. I have no stake in this game, I don't gamble, I obviously am not a part of any of these teams, so I don't super care. I just think Harbaugh is playing fast and loose and it has burned him, repeatedly.

Would he have been roasted if he went up 23-20 and the Bills managed to force overtime with a field goal or won the game by driving down the field? No. He had the lead with 4 minutes to go and forced the team to get a TD on the drive to win it. Again it was a 20-20 game. Neither team was scoring TDs every drive down the field.

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(source: https://twitter.com/ben_bot_baldwin/...61041043410945)

Same question on this. What data is being used to come up with these numbers? Is this data determined on how games in the last 5 years went, last 10, 20?

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Worth noting that this is not the same as the ESPN one (which more heavily favored going for it)--which shows the inconsistency that'll pop up between various models

Which is part of my point. These models are all different and who says any of them are correct? If a coach made a call for to go for it on 4th and goal in 2007 does that data really mean a lot? Well by these models it MIGHT.

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Why I don't really understand the heat on Harbaugh though--Buffalo got down to the Baltimore 3 with 1:43 left. The interception comment above is an interesting consideration, but I'm not sure 18 extra yards was going to matter with that much time. Funny enough, kicking the field goal probably just puts them at the 20 and a similar spot. They were going to lose anyway without putting a TD on the board.

What is it you said? "Forgive my harshness--but what you're doing here is illogical. You can't argue the decision, after-the-fact, with the benefit of hindsight in the form of the actual outcome of said decision." 18 yards fucking matters. Knowing you only need a field goal to win matters. It was a 20-20 game. Not 48-45 in the Detroit game with neither defense capable of stopping anyone.

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They're 18 of the most important yards on the field, the plays you run from the 20 are radically different than what you run from the 2.

Nah man it didn't matter. Buffalo was going to score no matter what! They only punted 3 times and turned the ball over twice all game. Gawd. It was just like that game vs the Pats when they went TD, TD, TD, TD, etc.

[Espo]

For someone without anything vested in the game--you sure are quite animated, angry and sarcastic about it (but maybe that's not your intention--tone is weird in text; either way it's all good and I mean no offense).

Same question on this. What data is being used to come up with these numbers? Is this data determined on how games in the last 5 years went, last 10, 20?

You can head over to the twitter profile of Ben Baldwin (https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin) and read his Athletic article on how it works--or head to his github and browse the package (it's all open source). It looks like it uses the last 7 years of data though, which sounds pretty fair (though 4th down attempts didn't start trending significantly up until 2017--that's pretty "modern era" football at this point). For what it's worth, pretty much every analytical model I could find (ESPN, 4thdownbot, NYT4thdownbot, Next Gen Stats, Profootballreference, etc), all have the TD attempt decision as a "go for it" recommendation with regard to win probability, but with varying degrees of success (albeit all greater than the field goal, and all decently over 50%). Granted--I can't possibly account for them all--those are just the ones I saw. I'm sure there are some out there that may be conservative and/or simply disagree based on their algorithms.

But either way--we can agree to disagree--no worries. At this point, it's probably more about the belief in analytics than the decision.

[Kyanion]

For someone without anything vested in the game--you sure are quite animated, angry and sarcastic about it (but maybe that's not your intention--tone is weird in text; either way it's all good and I mean no offense).



You can head over to the twitter profile of Ben Baldwin (https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin) and read his Athletic article on how it works--or head to his github and browse the package (it's all open source). It looks like it uses the last 7 years of data though, which sounds pretty fair (though 4th down attempts didn't start trending significantly up until 2017--that's pretty "modern era" football at this point). For what it's worth, pretty much every analytical model I could find (ESPN, 4thdownbot, NYT4thdownbot, Next Gen Stats, Profootballreference, etc), all have the TD attempt decision as a "go for it" recommendation with regard to win probability, but with varying degrees of success (albeit all greater than the field goal, and all decently over 50%). Granted--I can't possibly account for them all--those are just the ones I saw. I'm sure there are some out there that may be conservative and/or simply disagree based on their algorithms.

But either way--we can agree to disagree--no worries. At this point, it's probably more about the belief in analytics than the decision.

Mostly sarcasm not malice on my part. Yeah Baldwin at least puts out some info behind his model which is more than what some do. But that helps my point, because the further you go back the more potential data could be corrupted by choices that bad coaches made when they had no choice but to go for it. But on the flip side many teams expect the opposing team to go for it more often so they are ready for it too.

I really do like analytics, but I don't think it applies to every game and every situation. It just looked wrong to me to go for it there when you could take the lead. I know we are talking about Lamar Jackson here who is prolific as a runner, but I think we can all agree that play call was a bit weird (with him going backwards so much) and then getting intercepted was the worst thing that could happen as it gave Buffalo a free 18 yards to work with. Like it was said, it is a lot different if we're talking 1st and 10 from the 2 yard line as opposed to 1st and 10 from the 20.

[Logwyn]

They're 18 of the most important yards on the field, the plays you run from the 20 are radically different than what you run from the 2.

Also, the defense has less field to guard as well the closer to the end zone you go.

I'd like to see stats on never punting on 4th down and how those translate. I doubt they will have enough sample size.

[draynay]

I really do like analytics, but I don't think it applies to every game and every situation. It just looked wrong to me to go for it there when you could take the lead. I know we are talking about Lamar Jackson here who is prolific as a runner, but I think we can all agree that play call was a bit weird (with him going backwards so much) and then getting intercepted was the worst thing that could happen as it gave Buffalo a free 18 yards to work with. Like it was said, it is a lot different if we're talking 1st and 10 from the 2 yard line as opposed to 1st and 10 from the 20.

The play call and execution of the play were big problems. Some of the charts listed were interesting particularly the one that showed a 49% chance of winning if they failed on the TD, and a 43% chance of winning if they failed on the FG. The only difference between those two scenarios is presumably field position, so the extra 7-8 yards of field position on a missed kick was worth 6% and they ended up giving 18 yards, certainly the play they called and the result were worse than if they had missed the kick.

Backing them up on the 2 is the best way to get a stop so I can see the limited downside to going for it, but not with that play call. I preferred a field goal, and then they practically threw the game away with a bad 4th down play making the decision look even worse.

The Ravens have had a hard time winning close games lately, Harbaugh deserves the scrutiny. They've been outscored 48-10 in the second half of their two losses and they've now lost 7 consecutive one score games.

[eschatological]

The Ravens have had a hard time winning close games lately, Harbaugh deserves the scrutiny. They've been outscored 48-10 in the second half of their two losses and they've now lost 7 consecutive one score games.

Yesterday might be more about the Bills. We've given up 7 points this season in the second half. Shutouts against the Rams, Titans, and Ravens. We're the best 2nd half defense in the league.

[xskarma]

Holy shit, that Deebo play.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

Is it bad I see Brady might be getting a divorice and my first thought is "Yep he's playing next year?"

[draynay]

Is it bad I see Brady might be getting a divorice and my first thought is "Yep he's playing next year?"

Bad news for tablets

[ProphetFlume]

Is it bad I see Brady might be getting a divorice and my first thought is "Yep he's playing next year?"

We’ll see how he does as this year continues, but I wouldn’t be surprised if his body just can no longer handle full seasons and stumbles in Dec/Jan.

[Gestopft]

Is it bad I see Brady might be getting a divorice and my first thought is "Yep he's playing next year?"

You're not the only one that had that thought.

[NotBigzo]

No, I said it in the moment. When they went for it, it was stupid. It was a 20-20 game, it wasn't like it was Detroit/Seattle and defense was optional. It was the wrong choice, they fucked up and guess what they lost again. They cost themselves games last year doing shit like this. Since when is taking points and going ahead in the game with 4 minutes to go a BAD thing? It fucking isn't.

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Yes so grade A Ass it was a 20-20 game with 4 minutes to go. Great analysis there.

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So 'historical data' using what, data from 10-30 years ago when coaches were timid and only went for it on 4th down when they basically had to. I'm sure tainted data like that is very useful. I want to know WHAT this data is, just how far does it go back exactly.

Harbaugh should be roasted because he routinely does this shit and it burns his team. Last year they lost 2 games by going for 2 point conversions at the end of games and failed, thus losing the games. I PERSONALLY think going for 2 in a tie game is the right choice in many situations, but it really does depend on the teams involved. I sure as fuck don't apply blanket data from all teams when I'd think what I would do in a given situation. I have no stake in this game, I don't gamble, I obviously am not a part of any of these teams, so I don't super care. I just think Harbaugh is playing fast and loose and it has burned him, repeatedly.

Would he have been roasted if he went up 23-20 and the Bills managed to force overtime with a field goal or won the game by driving down the field? No. He had the lead with 4 minutes to go and forced the team to get a TD on the drive to win it. Again it was a 20-20 game. Neither team was scoring TDs every drive down the field.

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Same question on this. What data is being used to come up with these numbers? Is this data determined on how games in the last 5 years went, last 10, 20?

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Which is part of my point. These models are all different and who says any of them are correct? If a coach made a call for to go for it on 4th and goal in 2007 does that data really mean a lot? Well by these models it MIGHT.

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What is it you said? "Forgive my harshness--but what you're doing here is illogical. You can't argue the decision, after-the-fact, with the benefit of hindsight in the form of the actual outcome of said decision." 18 yards fucking matters. Knowing you only need a field goal to win matters. It was a 20-20 game. Not 48-45 in the Detroit game with neither defense capable of stopping anyone.

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Nah man it didn't matter. Buffalo was going to score no matter what! They only punted 3 times and turned the ball over twice all game. Gawd. It was just like that game vs the Pats when they went TD, TD, TD, TD, etc.

I made a true statement. Baltimore's pass defense is ranked 32nd in the NFL right now.

So yes, I stand by my statement that Baltimore's secondary is shit and struggling right now. Harbaugh went for it to give them as much cushion as possible. Any look at their PFF grades say the same thing, since you want to sneakily remark about my "grade A analysis".

I know it's a common theme for Ravens fans to bitch and moan about the fact that their secondary can't stay healthy, but i've never seen one so butthurt that they lash out at statistical truths.

For christ sake, you let Mac Jones throw a career high 321 yards. If Lamar wasn't playing for a contract right now you'd be 0-4.

By the way, the Ravens only held Buffalo to 20-20 until the last 4 minutes because the Bills offense was shit for most of the game. It had nothing to do with Baltimore playing good defense. Buffalo's receivers had a unprecedented case of the dropsies. If you had watched the game aside from its highlight reel you would've known that.

[Kyanion]

I made a true statement. Baltimore's pass defense is ranked 32nd in the NFL right now.

So yes, I stand by my statement that Baltimore's secondary is shit and struggling right now. Harbaugh went for it to give them as much cushion as possible. Any look at their PFF grades say the same thing, since you want to sneakily remark about my "grade A analysis".

I know it's a common theme for Ravens fans to bitch and moan about the fact that their secondary can't stay healthy, but i've never seen one so butthurt that they lash out at statistical truths.

For christ sake, you let Mac Jones throw a career high 321 yards. If Lamar wasn't playing for a contract right now you'd be 0-4.

By the way, the Ravens only held Buffalo to 20-20 until the last 4 minutes because the Bills offense was shit for most of the game. It had nothing to do with Baltimore playing good defense. Buffalo's receivers had a unprecedented case of the dropsies. If you had watched the game aside from its highlight reel you would've known that.

Again, the score was 20-20. 2 turnovers + 3 punts. 20 points. Meaning if Buffalo's offense was shit for most of the game then being up 23-20 had a better chance of holding up than the game being 45-45. Defensive rankings are wonderful but that is overall, it does not mean as much in one single game that was close throughout and low scoring. This is one game we're looking at and Baltimore held Buffalo to 20 points. Period. (This is up til the final drive to set the state of the game as it pertains to the 4th down call). You're acting like this was Buffalo scoring a TD every drive and that was not the case. Simple as that.

I'm not a butthurt Ravens fan lashing out at 'statistical truths'. I'm not a Ravens fan at all. As pointed out many times Harbaugh has a recent history of making the wrong choice and costing his team wins. Data can be a wonderful thing but some games play differently and do not hold up to the data for the overall season. Cause you know Josh Allen had 213 yards passing which is even lower if you put the sack in there. Anyways Allen was 19-36, for 213 yards and 5 drops and that is AFTER the final drive. 49 of those yards came on the final drive. So again, this is not Allen going 22-29 for 375 yards 5 tds on this day. If it was so easy for Buffalo on Sunday they'd have managed more than 23 points. Stats can tell you a lot of things but use your eyes and not the 'highlights'.

So if they had a case of the dropsies what is to say that it couldn't have kept happening in the final drive or a turnover happens? Is it possible Buffalo goes conservative if it is 23-20 knowing they can force overtime with a field goal drive? Who knows, lot of coaches do some dumb shit like that. Does it play out differently if it is 1st and 10 from the 2 yard line as opposed to the 20? No clue. Baltimore cost themselves the game by choosing a terrible play and then turning the ball over with the interception as opposed to an incomplete pass. I just think the game could have went a different way if they kicked a field goal.

Statistical truths can be warped to fit a narrative. The stats I provided show that either Buffalo was making a lot of mistakes with 17 incomplete passes (5 drops) and 2 turnovers or Baltimore on that day was playing good enough defense and not letting Buffalo score TDs on every drive. Prior to that final drive Buffalo had around 249 total yards of offense and 20 points. So does that offense based on how it was playing on that Sunday instill a lot of fear? No.

[Grube]

I think I underestimated how bad the Colts are.

Denver's red zone offense is hilariously bad too.

[xskarma]

My twitter timeline just brought everyone together in harmony over how bad this game is. Rarely see this kind of unity on a subject. I'm not watching but, errrrr, also don't really feel like it with this going on. xD

[Grube]

My twitter timeline just brought everyone together in harmony over how bad this game is. Rarely see this kind of unity on a subject. I'm not watching but, errrrr, also don't really feel like it with this going on. xD

Missed out on the ref knocking down a Colts defender and 2 Broncos catching the same pass. It is a very special game.