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  1. #721
    Quote Originally Posted by hellhamster View Post
    To reiterate for the third time this thread:

    1. Musk says he will buy Twitter for an exuberant amount, being liable for $1 billion should he back out.
    2. Musk has second thoughts, says he will not accept a deal should x happen. He pays the $1 billion plus whatever lawyer fees and damages. Let's round it up to $2 billion. He will be like "Ooooh nooo. Anyway."
    3. Twitter stock expectedly tanks by 10% after this statement, which is still 25% lower than Musk's offer.
    4. Musk expects the markets to tank in the near future, bringing the Twitter evaluation even lower.
    5. Musk gets to swoop up Twitter for half price.
    6. That $billion he lost will be peanuts compared to what he gained.

    This isn't genius thinking, it's pretty basic and if I thought that up in a nanosecond, so can Musk.
    One blaringly obvious flaw in this plan is that Twitter's stock is trading well below his bid price, the market is not taking his bid seriously. Any movement in the company will be the natural flow of stock. If he was a "genius" he would not make the bid at all because he would know that the market would tank therefore get the stock at the low price to begin with and not lose 1 billion dollars.

  2. #722
    Legendary! hellhamster's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    One blaringly obvious flaw in this plan is that Twitter's stock is trading well below his bid price, the market is not taking his bid seriously. Any movement in the company will be the natural flow of stock. If he was a "genius" he would not make the bid at all because he would know that the market would tank therefore get the stock at the low price to begin with and not lose 1 billion dollars.
    Maybe, but I guess that he didn't know back in April when he made the bid that the stock market would dumpola in May and onwards after a hawkish FED meeting (FED's announcement of Quantitative tightening has everyone panicking). The S&P 500 is 12% lower than the time of the bid and will very likely continue to poop itself for the foreseeable future.
    Last edited by hellhamster; 2022-05-14 at 03:58 PM.

  3. #723
    Quote Originally Posted by hellhamster View Post
    To reiterate for the third time this thread:

    1. Musk says he will buy Twitter for an exuberant amount, being liable for $1 billion should he back out.
    2. Musk has second thoughts, says he will not accept a deal should x happen. He pays the $1 billion plus whatever lawyer fees and damages. Let's round it up to $2 billion. He will be like "Ooooh nooo. Anyway."
    3. Twitter stock expectedly tanks by 10% after this statement, which is still 25% lower than Musk's offer.
    4. Musk expects the markets to tank in the near future, bringing the Twitter evaluation even lower.
    5. Musk gets to swoop up Twitter for half price.
    6. That $billion he lost will be peanuts compared to what he gained.

    This isn't genius thinking, it's pretty basic and if I thought that up in a nanosecond, so can Musk.
    The people who are going to sue him are not lightweights. These are trillion-dollar + hedge fund organizations and trillion-dollar Saudi prince lead fund. He can only hope he gets out with just a 2 billion dollar bill. They have a lot more money than Musk has, by multiples.


    Musk owns 73,486,938 shares of Twitter which he brought in march when the stock was 33-38 a share. If he cuts the price he wants to pay for twitter by 25% and drives the cost down to 40 instead of 54 he loses over a billion dollars on his own direct investment held. Still up from when he brought but not by much.


    Also the assumption is that he will be able to make the value of Twitter go up after he and his billionaire club owns it is suspect.

    If he swoops up twitter for half price @ 27 ish, he then will be down almost 2 billion and lose almost a billion from his initial investment.

    Doing this he runs a real risk of losing the support of the largest stock holders.
    You think the top 2 holders who currently hold more stock each than Musk are going to support a buyout at 50% cut? What about the rest of the stock holders?
    Buh Byeeeeeeeeeeee !!

  4. #724
    Quote Originally Posted by Zan15 View Post
    The people who are going to sue him are not lightweights. These are trillion-dollar + hedge fund organizations and trillion-dollar Saudi prince lead fund. He can only hope he gets out with just a 2 billion dollar bill. They have a lot more money than Musk has, by multiples.


    Musk owns 73,486,938 shares of Twitter which he brought in march when the stock was 33-38 a share. If he cuts the price he wants to pay for twitter by 25% and drives the cost down to 40 instead of 54 he loses over a billion dollars on his own direct investment held. Still up from when he brought but not by much.


    Also the assumption is that he will be able to make the value of Twitter go up after he and his billionaire club owns it is suspect.

    If he swoops up twitter for half price @ 27 ish, he then will be down almost 2 billion and lose almost a billion from his initial investment.

    Doing this he runs a real risk of losing the support of the largest stock holders.
    You think the top 2 holders who currently hold more stock each than Musk are going to support a buyout at 50% cut? What about the rest of the stock holders?
    Shhh, don't question. Musk smart. Elon-san is genius. Never makes a mistake. Except when he does then it was on purpose to troll/shitpost/own the libs. He totally didn't let his ego get the better of him after his first offer got laughed at.

    Guy owes me 500$, too. My one Tesla share is getting hammered. Some of it is just the market being bad of course but I wonder how low it'll dip.
    It is all that is left unsaid upon which tragedies are built -Kreia

    The internet: where to every action is opposed an unequal overreaction.

  5. #725

  6. #726
    Quote Originally Posted by hellhamster View Post
    Maybe, but I guess that he didn't know back in April when he made the bid that the stock market would dumpola in May and onwards after a hawkish FED meeting (FED's announcement of Quantitative tightening has everyone panicking). The S&P 500 is 12% lower than the time of the bid and will very likely continue to poop itself for the foreseeable future.
    Sometimes there's no huge master plan it's just what it looks like, this entire process is a mess. I mean he is publicly polling private company information on social media, there's nothing professional or serious about this.

  7. #727
    Quote Originally Posted by UnifiedDivide View Post
    Speaking of Super Mastermind Musk...
    Man, right on cue with the "owning the libs" part and acting like he's in control and got this. It's all so predictable.

    The fanboys begging for a speck of his attention with bad memes are so sad yet so indicative of his cult as well.
    It is all that is left unsaid upon which tragedies are built -Kreia

    The internet: where to every action is opposed an unequal overreaction.

  8. #728
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jastall View Post
    Man, right on cue with the "owning the libs" part and acting like he's in control and got this. It's all so predictable.

    The fanboys begging for a speck of his attention with bad memes are so sad yet so indicative of his cult as well.
    Ken Klippenstein really nailed it when he pointed out that Musk is basically a megachurch pastor for atheists.
    The Were/Was Army: "Nooo you can't just vaporize my entire armored division, we had such a manly recruitment ad!"
    The They/Them Army: "Omg integrated fire support?? Go off queen sksksks, JDAMs are such a gemini thing."

  9. #729
    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    Ken Klippenstein really nailed it when he pointed out that Musk is basically a megachurch pastor for atheists.
    That is most accurate analogy for the man I've ever seen and I will shamelessly steal it.
    It is all that is left unsaid upon which tragedies are built -Kreia

    The internet: where to every action is opposed an unequal overreaction.

  10. #730
    Quote Originally Posted by Zan15 View Post
    What about the rest of the stock holders?
    1) If the Twitter bord is NOT lying about the numer of Twittter users. They can force Elon to compleat the transaction, or pay 1 billion in fine. Both outcome is economically advantageous for the stock holders. They get money, or Twitter go back to its "normal" price but Twitter "earn" 1 billion.

    2) If the Twitter bord IS lying about the numer of Twittter users. Then its time to pick up the torches and pitchfors (lawyers) and go after the Twitter bord.

    I personaly think Elon did know, and use the "Twitter is lying" part to beat up the company to get a better price.

  11. #731
    Quote Originally Posted by Fantomen View Post
    2) If the Twitter bord IS lying about the numer of Twittter users. Then its time to pick up the torches and pitchfors (lawyers) and go after the Twitter bord.
    Except that they didn't wrote "less than 5% of users are bots, trust us", they wrote "we estimate that less than 5% of daily users are bots (well, somewhat more particular), but that is just an estimate and it may be wrong."

    That's because they have competent lawyers.

    Quote Originally Posted by Fantomen View Post
    I personaly think Elon did know, and use the "Twitter is lying" part to beat up the company to get a better price.
    If he knew that the users numbers were inflated and wanted to lower the price based on that, he should have asked for a better price earlier, or made it a condition of the purchase.

    If you see a used car with some rust with a sticker saying it has some rust - estimated to be less than 5% of the surface, but you notice that there might be more rust, you don't first sign a contract to buy it without conditions, and then try to renegotiate based on the rust.

  12. #732
    Quote Originally Posted by Fantomen View Post
    1) If the Twitter bord is NOT lying about the numer of Twittter users. They can force Elon to compleat the transaction, or pay 1 billion in fine. Both outcome is economically advantageous for the stock holders. They get money, or Twitter go back to its "normal" price but Twitter "earn" 1 billion.

    2) If the Twitter bord IS lying about the numer of Twittter users. Then its time to pick up the torches and pitchfors (lawyers) and go after the Twitter bord.

    I personaly think Elon did know, and use the "Twitter is lying" part to beat up the company to get a better price.
    All of that is kind of irrelevant because this is simply not how this works, if Elon Musk wasn't trolling he wouldn't learn about this now or perhaps he is pretending to. He would have had his people do proper research and he has enough pull thanks to the amount of shares he owns to get plenty of data. You aren't supposed to be vetting a company now publicly it's a clear violation of NDA that I am sure he had to sign to view all of this. This looks like a man who made a mistake and is desperate to have an excuse to back out.

  13. #733
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    If you see a used car with some rust with a sticker saying it has some rust - estimated to be less than 5% of the surface, but you notice that there might be more rust, you don't first sign a contract to buy it without conditions, and then try to renegotiate based on the rust.
    It depend on how mutch rust, if the car is 7% rust the estimated is right. But if it was 50% rust, the orginal estimate is either gross incompetence or a lie. The only winners will be the the lawyers.

  14. #734
    Quote Originally Posted by Fantomen View Post
    It depend on how mutch rust, if the car is 7% rust the estimated is right. But if it was 50% rust, the orginal estimate is either gross incompetence or a lie. The only winners will be the the lawyers.
    And if they are that incompetent or lied Musk should have discovered that as part of due diligence before making the offer, or making the low percentage of bots a condition of the offer.

    I assume you have not seen due diligence as part of M&A up close?

  15. #735
    Herald of the Titans D Luniz's Avatar
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    He said over 3 weeks ago "authenticate all real humans" so he knew twitter had a bot/alt account issue
    Him gasping and trying to run now is because some accountant of his just explained this wouldnt end with him ahead

    He buys twitter and lets the assholes loose, twitter becomes the next myspace. Cause most the people will leave, the trolls (the same ones that claim they'll stay/comeback if those rules are gone) will then follow those people because the only reason they want to be there is to "own the libs", and the advertisers will leave as well. The only thing that stops another twitter from showing up is the "its not worth moving and losing my followers/ people I follow" But if you're suddenly stuck having to fight off assholes 24/7, that value in staying drops.
    "Law and Order", lots of places have had that, Russia, North Korea, Saddam's Iraq.
    Laws can be made to enforce order of cruelty and brutality.
    Equality and Justice, that is how you have peace and a society that benefits all.

  16. #736
    Legendary! hellhamster's Avatar
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    LMAO @ Musk's recent twitter feed. He wants to get out BAD. I hope Twitter gets every last dollar out of this guy.

  17. #737
    Quote Originally Posted by hellhamster View Post
    LMAO @ Musk's recent twitter feed. He wants to get out BAD. I hope Twitter gets every last dollar out of this guy.
    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1525612988115320838

    Oh man, he even pinned his fucking big-smoothbrain moment.

    Man I've been fuckin calling it since early on, he played a game of chicken with Twitter and fully expected them to blink. Twitter didn't blink. So now he's trying to find a way out of the deal while saving some face publicly, which likely means violating the NDA and other terms by shitposting on Twitter than then crying like he's some kind of victim for having to pay the penalty and not being allowed to buy Twitter.

    Musk is gonna be the leader of the smoothbrains.

  18. #738
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1525612988115320838

    Oh man, he even pinned his fucking big-smoothbrain moment.

    Man I've been fuckin calling it since early on, he played a game of chicken with Twitter and fully expected them to blink. Twitter didn't blink. So now he's trying to find a way out of the deal while saving some face publicly, which likely means violating the NDA and other terms by shitposting on Twitter than then crying like he's some kind of victim for having to pay the penalty and not being allowed to buy Twitter.

    Musk is gonna be the leader of the smoothbrains.
    Jokes on him if Twitter just levies financial penalties against Musk for breaking terms in their agreement that goes right to their board, and lets him buy them anyways. Let them milk our Muskox for all he's worth.
    Sylvanas didn't even win the popular vote, she was elected by an indirect election of representatives. #NotMyWarchief

  19. #739
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1525612988115320838

    Oh man, he even pinned his fucking big-smoothbrain moment.

    Man I've been fuckin calling it since early on, he played a game of chicken with Twitter and fully expected them to blink. Twitter didn't blink. So now he's trying to find a way out of the deal while saving some face publicly, which likely means violating the NDA and other terms by shitposting on Twitter than then crying like he's some kind of victim for having to pay the penalty and not being allowed to buy Twitter.

    Musk is gonna be the leader of the smoothbrains.
    Imagine the people who think this smooth brain is a genius. Oh wait, we don't have to imagine....

  20. #740
    Quote Originally Posted by beanman12345 View Post
    Imagine the people who think this smooth brain is a genius. Oh wait, we don't have to imagine....
    If you only have 3 ripples in your brain, someone with 4 ripples is like, a supergenius. 33% more surface area! (I know that's not how it works, but roll with the joke).

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