2022 Midterms

[Flarelaine]

Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin all have primaries today.

Why do y'all insist on sodding Tuesdays?

[Milchshake]

Why do y'all insist on sodding Tuesdays?

It comes from the Old English Tīwesdæg, Tyr's day. The god of voting and doing chores in-the-middle-of-the-week.
In the late twentieth century, it also became the day for weekly celebration of Tacos.

[Edge-]

It comes from the Old English Tīwesdæg, Tyr's day. The god of voting and doing chores in-the-middle-of-the-week.
In the late twentieth century, it also became the day for weekly celebration of Tacos.

Fuck, can I once again lament that Republicans never delivered on their "threat" of taco trucks on every street corner? Like, holy shit seriously I'm sad about that since I live in a small-ass unincorporated township where I believe the only "hispanic" food of any sort is Taco Bell. Though we do have like 4 very average Chinese places run by lovely people. Food may not be great, but it's fairly cheap and the owners are all super cool.

[fwc577]

Fuck, can I once again lament that Republicans never delivered on their "threat" of taco trucks on every street corner? Like, holy shit seriously I'm sad about that since I live in a small-ass unincorporated township where I believe the only "hispanic" food of any sort is Taco Bell. Though we do have like 4 very average Chinese places run by lovely people. Food may not be great, but it's fairly cheap and the owners are all super cool.

I live in a village with a population < 75000 and we have THREE Mexican Taco Trucks and they're all popular and they're all delicious. Yes, also, my village is heavily Republican.

We also have a Mexican restaurant that is INSANELY popular. It's located by a strip mall and on nights when they're open, the parking lot causes traffic jams in the strip mall.

I don't understand why Republicans have such a hard-on hate for Mexicans and foreigners and yet I know so many of them in interracial relationships.

- - - Updated - - -

I dragged my ass out of the house and went to vote and my gut feeling is things aren't looking good for Republicans. Take everything I'm about to say with a grain of salt.

I live in a VERY Republican area. I vote with 4 other Wards in my town.

I just did some rough numbers. I expect the turnout to be ~20%. Republicans have a ton of options on the ballot. Democrats have nothing really on the ballot. I just ran the numbers and we're about 70% Republican and 30% Democrat as far as Registration in my five wards.

Here are some turnout numbers and some notes on the Primary:

2020 - 31% -- Only a single option to vote for in this Primary on the Republican ballot

2018 - 39% -- Tons of options to vote for both Dems and Republicans

2016 - 71% -- Massive turnout, tons of options in every election in addition to a State Supreme Court Justice on the ballot

2014 - 22% -- Very few options, similar to 2020.

So, where were we at tonight? I have a number in my head as far as projections are concerned based on the count on the machines tonight. I'm willing to bet we end tonight around 20%, and that's assuming there hasn't been more registrations.

What's on the ballot? Republicans have a ton of options for Congress and Governor. There is also the fact that Donald Trump visit nearby this week to endorse Ron Johnson and one of the candidates in the Governor primary.

We literally might end up with a turnout lower than 2014 before all the craziness. That cannot be good for Republicans.

- - - Updated - - -

Turnout for my voting wards shows Republican turnout is WAY down. 2020 and 2014, there was nothing import on the ballot. There were hardly any primary races on the ballot. This year, there were a ton of races on the ballot including Trump turning out a week ago to endorse a GOP Governor candidate and a senator.

2022 -- 22.9%

2020 -- 31.1%

2018 -- 39%

2016 -- 71%

2014 -- 22.4%

2012 -- 36.7%

Hopefully this is a trend that continues for the rest of the state and the entire US.

Raw Numbers

2022 Total Votes: 1228

2020 Total Votes: 1659

2020 Registered Voters: 5342

2014 Total Votes: 1195

2014 Registered Voters: 5300

2012 Total Votes: 1941

2012 Registered Voters: 5287

[Shadowferal]

GOP tempers expectations for Senate majority

Republicans are looking to manage expectations when it comes to winning back the Senate majority in November as Democrats rack up key legislative wins and some GOP candidates stumble.

The comments come as Democratic hopes of gaining seats in the upper chamber are growing. Democrats just passed their climate, tax and health care bill, dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act, a major piece of President Biden’s agenda. That followed bipartisan passage of a measure to increase semiconductor manufacturing and competitiveness with China, as well as a bill to expand health care for veterans.

Additionally, the overwhelming rejection of an anti-abortion ballot measure in Kansas points to an electorate energized by the fall of Roe v. Wade.

And Republicans are grappling with a handful of controversial Senate candidates struggling in the polls in key swing states.
----
52 is a nice number.

[fwc577]

GOP tempers expectations for Senate majority[i]

52 is a nice number.

62 is an even nicer number. It ain't happening but a mother fucker can dream.

[The Stormbringer]

62 is an even nicer number. It ain't happening but a mother fucker can dream.

How about "whatever number is high enough to override Manchin and Sinema's obstructionist bullshit"?

[Edge-]

52 is a nice number.

I'm greedy, gimme 53+ so we can completely, safely ignore Manchin and Sinema without having to rely on Harris to break a tie.

[Milchshake]

Nancy helps Omar squek out a win in the MN05 primary.

[cubby]

GOP tempers expectations for Senate majority

Republicans are looking to manage expectations when it comes to winning back the Senate majority in November as Democrats rack up key legislative wins and some GOP candidates stumble.

The comments come as Democratic hopes of gaining seats in the upper chamber are growing. Democrats just passed their climate, tax and health care bill, dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act, a major piece of President Biden’s agenda. That followed bipartisan passage of a measure to increase semiconductor manufacturing and competitiveness with China, as well as a bill to expand health care for veterans.

Additionally, the overwhelming rejection of an anti-abortion ballot measure in Kansas points to an electorate energized by the fall of Roe v. Wade.

And Republicans are grappling with a handful of controversial Senate candidates struggling in the polls in key swing states.
----
52 is a nice number.

That would be so nice. Holding onto the Senate and actually gaining seats would be a yuge win.

[Xyonai]

That would be so nice. Holding onto the Senate and actually gaining seats would be a yuge win.

IIRC it was also be fairly unprecedented for an Incumbent President's party to maintain or even gain more of a lead in the chambers of Congress during the midterms, to further drive home how much Republicans have managed to fuck up their messaging on a national scale, despite how successful they've been on galvanizing their base against CRT and LGBTQ issues (again), and their 'win' on getting Roe v Wade struck down.

Though maybe it's going too hard too fast into crazy town that's hurting their chances with moderates. You know, the thing Centrists say the Dems are doing all the time by being 'woke' or whatever.

[cubby]

IIRC it was also be fairly unprecedented for an Incumbent President's party to maintain or even gain more of a lead in the chambers of Congress during the midterms, to further drive home how much Republicans have managed to fuck up their messaging on a national scale, despite how successful they've been on galvanizing their base against CRT and LGBTQ issues (again), and their 'win' on getting Roe v Wade struck down.

Though maybe it's going too hard too fast into crazy town that's hurting their chances with moderates. You know, the thing Centrists say the Dems are doing all the time by being 'woke' or whatever.

It is almost a certainty that the sitting President's political party will lose seats in the mid-terms - so this isn't unexpected. Except that the GQP is no longer Bob Dole's Republican Party, but a group of violent and racist shit birds who literally have no clue what's going and revel in their willful ignorance. Which makes their takeover of the House frightening.

The GQP will start Impeachment proceedings on Biden the day after they elect a Speaker. And they will Impeach him no less than three times, probably Harris as well, so their Golden Calf won't be the most Impeached Resident in the History of the United States.

Then the Hunter Biden Committee will start up. After that it will get petty and nasty.

I will be very curious if the Democrats gain seats in the Senate. If we don't have to kowtow to Manchin and Sienna, well, it won't matter because we won't be able to pass any legislation with the House sitting in control of the toddlers of politics.

[Xyonai]

It is almost a certainty that the sitting President's political party will lose seats in the mid-terms - so this isn't unexpected. Except that the GQP is no longer Bob Dole's Republican Party, but a group of violent and racist shit birds who literally have no clue what's going and revel in their willful ignorance. Which makes their takeover of the House frightening.

The GQP will start Impeachment proceedings on Biden the day after they elect a Speaker. And they will Impeach him no less than three times, probably Harris as well, so their Golden Calf won't be the most Impeached Resident in the History of the United States.

Then the Hunter Biden Committee will start up.

After that it will get petty and nasty.

Yeah when/if Republicans can maintain a healthy marjority in either chamber they'll gladly just start wasting everyone's time with bullshit like that.

Then, as they do, hammer all the made up shit they complained about to justify complaining about it even more. "See all these investigations (we baselessly started) into the sitting president? That clearly means he's unfit for office!" etc.

[cubby]

Yeah when/if Republicans can maintain a healthy marjority in either chamber they'll gladly just start wasting everyone's time with bullshit like that.

Then, as they do, hammer all the made up shit they complained about to justify complaining about it even more. "See all these investigations (we baselessly started) into the sitting president? That clearly means he's unfit for office!" etc.

I think they will start their bullshit the moment they have any kind of House Majority. The bloodletting of the Speaker election might cull a few of them, but after that, it will be Impeachments and Investigations for 2 years.

[NED funded]

Nancy helps Omar squek out a win in the MN05 primary.

Omar's victory has got to be one of the worst performances Ive seen. Only three point difference for an incumbent

[Milchshake]

Will Liz Cheney lose her house seat tomorrow?!

Here's Liz in happier times in 2017. When the GOP was 1 vote away from stripping millions of health care.



Does the NRSC have:

• An enthusiasm problem?
• A Candidate problem?
• A money problem?

NEWS: The NRSC is canceling some fall ad reservations in PA, AZ and WI — total so far north of $10 million — in a sign of financial troubles.
Cuts include more than $5 million just from the Philly market.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/15/u...a-arizona.html

$5 million, Dr Oz could finally afford all of that crudités for dinner!

[Blur4stuff]

I imagine Trump and other grifters have siphoned off millions that would have otherwise went to help republican candidates.

[fwc577]

NEWS: The NRSC is canceling some fall ad reservations in PA, AZ and WI — total so far north of $10 million — in a sign of financial troubles.
Cuts include more than $5 million just from the Philly market.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/15/u...a-arizona.html

$5 million, Dr Oz could finally afford all of that crudités for dinner!

Absolutely fucking huge.

This is a BAD sign for Republican midterms. Wisconsin was 100% a tossup but if they're not worried about cash and need to pull out funding, it tells me their polling is NOT looking good for Ron Dick.

[Milchshake]

Where the RCV fans at? Did Yang and the cool kids ghost RCV?

Sarah Palin is a fan. Palin looks to Alaska's RCV primary vote to make her comeback ...


What a sentence from an Alaska voter about Sarah Palin: “She is a quitter,” he added, “but at least she stands for something.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/15/u...ka-voters.html


Uhh, I guess the silver lining is that Dems and Leftists can support Sen. Murkowski in her re-election bid?

[fwc577]

Where the RCV fans at? Did Yang and the cool kids ghost RCV?

Sarah Palin is a fan. Palin looks to Alaska's RCV primary vote to make her comeback ...


What a sentence from an Alaska voter about Sarah Palin: “She is a quitter,” he added, “but at least she stands for something.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/15/u...ka-voters.html


Uhh, I guess the silver lining is that Dems and Leftists can support Sen. Murkowski in her re-election bid?

The last decade really has Palin looking rough. I will always remember her best from her glory hole days.