2022 Midterms

[diller]

So when I wish to describe who will be voting in the American elections, I'm talking about the American electorate.

Left and right are clearly defined those are not relative terms - that the US makes up their own definitions is their problem (also don't call it American elections when it's the US)

[Ivanstone]

People do switch parties. It happened with Obama, and it happened with Trump. It's the easiest reason to demand knowledge of why people vote as they do, rather than treat every election like a turnout election. Political independents (kind of a bad name for the term, but it's the historically used one) swung for Obama and were an important part of the winning coalition. Obama-Trump voters were a necessary part of Trump swinging states he needed to win, comprising more than the margin of victory in certain keys states.

I've seen you defend "just assign their party-line vote to who they are," and such a regime misses swing voters and does a "I guess they were Republicans then Democrats, or Democrats then Republicans, or Democrats then Republicans then Democrats again." I get you're Canadian so your real party choices are more varied, but pay a little more attention to changing coalitions and changing votes. Every election isn't a turnout election. Notable wins often include a big headline-grabbing factor, but don't stop at the headline and pack your backs and go. And, let me repeat, don't miss the times where voters changing their party vote mattered in the election, just because it's going to blow up a quick-and-easy "eligible voter identity starts and ends at current party identity" system.

Almost every election going back to 1988 have been low turn out elections. The last real blowout was 1984. Obama had good turn out in 2008 but any Dem probably would’ve won the same election.

If it wasn’t about turn outs then why do the GOP prefer voter suppression to winning elections?

[CastletonSnob]

Almost 6 MILLION votes have already been cast.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/21/polit...ion/index.html

[tehdang]

Left and right are clearly defined those are not relative terms - that the US makes up their own definitions is their problem (also don't call it American elections when it's the US)

Agree to disagree on both. Each country has their own left and right and the shades of issues that define them.

And I'm saying that the reason those groupings look as they do are because 40% of Americans are underserved (or by design blocked from voting by making it difficult for them)

I already said it. I'm uninterested in what, hypothetically, 20% 30% or 40% of Americans would do if your posited forces opposing them didn't exist. I could just as well say the right would make huge gains in this country if they weren't hindered by the forces opposing them. It's always self-serving musing.



On topic:
Republicans gain on the generic Congressional ballot, according to Emerson. Spread is +5 GOP. Republicans usually trail by low single digits close to the election in situations where they pick up seats.
https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/s...sa31bIayk3ewLA
In a previous post, I linked the House momentum moving towards the GOP. Cook, RCP, DDHQ, and 538 all predict a Republican seizure of the House.

Governor, New York race: Zeldin (R) now trails Hochul (D) by 6-8 points, down ~14 at the start of the month.
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-con...2210101405.pdf

Cook political report now has Oregon, Nevada, and Arizona governorships as toss-ups.
https://www.cookpolitical.com/rating...r-race-ratings

Senate: 538 moved the Senate projections from Democrat-favored to a dead-heat (Democrats very marginally favored), similar to DDHQ with 54% Dem majority-favored. RCP projects +3.

Basically, Republicans need to hold Wisconsin (Barnes challenging incumbent) and win Ohio (JD Vance, no incumbent) and NC (Budd, no incumbent).
Then Republicans need to win two of the following four: AZ (Blake Masters (R) vs Mark Kelly, incumbent), GA (Walker-Warnock, pretty well known race in these parts), NV (Laxalt (R) challenging Cortez Masto, incumbent), and PA (Oz (R) vs Fetterman, no incumbent).

The latest polls show Nevada and Arizona as more likely pickups than Pennsylvania and Georgia.

[Blur4stuff]

Polls usually tighten the closer we get to election day outside of races that are blowouts or have something crazy going on. The fact that it's even this close shows how badly republicans have fucked up this year. Republicans have a lot of election rigging in their favor and the house usually flips anyways.

For me it comes down to how many people are motivated by abortion. Also, how many people are idiotic enough to vote republican because of gas prices.

I don't know how well all of these polls are taking into account the switch that was flipped when roe vs wade was thrown out.

[Xyonai]

Republican voters are told to hold onto their mail ballots until Election Day.

https://apnews.com/article/2022-midt...gn=position_05

Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't waiting until Election Day to vote backfire on Republicans in 2020?

Could also be an attempt to double-down on ratfucking early mail-in votes and they don't want their own voters getting caught in whatever they're planning.

[masterhorus8]

Could also be an attempt to double-down on ratfucking early mail-in votes and they don't want their own voters getting caught in whatever they're planning.

This was exactly what I was thinking of, too.

[fwc577]

Lyrics by Michael Moore:

Roe, Roe, Roe the Vote!
Gently to Roevember.
Merrily, Merrily,
Merrily, Merrily
Traitors are dismembered
Roe, Roe, Roe the Vote
Toss the GOP!
When they’re gone
We’ll pass some laws
And save Democracy!
Roe, Roe, Roe the Vote
A woman’s right to choose!
Guns are gone
And so is ‘Rump
There’s no way we can lose!
Roe, Roe, Roe The Vote
Free Health Care soon for all!
Paid family leave
And College is free
Relax — it’s legal weed!
Roe, Roe, Roe the Vote
People over Profits!
A living wage
Grandma loves Old Age!
The rich now pay for all of it!
Roe Roe Roe Your Vote
November 8th’s the day!
We’ll’ve PeaceNoWAR!
Ted Cruz no more!
The Earth We All Will Save!

[xmirrors]

New poll showing a 5 point Oz lead over Fetterman.

The gap has gradually been closing so I'm not surprised. I still think Fetterman holds but I do think that Democrats need to prepare for the real possibility that they give up full control. I don't think the House was ever truly in play but with how bleak Nevada looks as well the Senate is certainly not looking great...

To be clear, though, no matter what this is not a good look for the GOP. Historically this is when they should be at their strongest, the midterms of the opposing party's presidential term. If they take full control it won't be from a bloodbath, and it certainly won't be a "red wave". It will have been just barely, barely managing it. That should worry the GOP.

Not that it matters for the Biden admin, obviously. If they lose control his agenda is toast. Just don't doom and gloom if it happens, not yet, because America isn't built around a single party being in control. If this is the best the GOP can do when all of the cards are in their favor then they are in trouble.

My $0.02

[fwc577]

New poll showing a 5 point Oz lead over Fetterman.

The gap has gradually been closing so I'm not surprised. I still think Fetterman holds but I do think that Democrats need to prepare for the real possibility that they give up full control. I don't think the House was ever truly in play but with how bleak Nevada looks as well the Senate is certainly not looking great...

To be clear, though, no matter what this is not a good look for the GOP. Historically this is when they should be at their strongest, the midterms of the opposing party's presidential term. If they take full control it won't be from a bloodbath, and it certainly won't be a "red wave". It will have been just barely, barely managing it. That should worry the GOP.

Not that it matters for the Biden admin, obviously. If they lose control his agenda is toast. Just don't doom and gloom if it happens, not yet, because America isn't built around a single party being in control. If this is the best the GOP can do when all of the cards are in their favor then they are in trouble.

My $0.02

I remember when the Polls gave Hillary Clinton a clear victory win 12-days prior to election day in 2016. Meanwhile, in July of 2016, Michael Moore said Trump would win.

Wonder what Michael Moore is saying now.

Just my $0.02

[CastletonSnob]

Trump laying the groundwork for 2024.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politic...ia-1234616197/

[Blur4stuff]

Their support for candidates like Oz/Walker really shows that they don't believe what they preach on issues. If you're willing to forgive everything they've said and done for more power then the only thing you really care about is power. Makes it impossible to take republicans seriously on any issue. You already know they're lying and don't actually mean what they say.

It's basically the same thing they pulled by voting for Trump. Their supposed beliefs are completely hollow and don't actually exist.

[Endus]

Their support for candidates like Oz/Walker really shows that they don't believe what they preach on issues. If you're willing to forgive everything they've said and done for more power then the only thing you really care about is power. Makes it impossible to take republicans seriously on any issue. You already know they're lying and don't actually mean what they say.

It's basically the same thing they pulled by voting for Trump. Their supposed beliefs are completely hollow and don't actually exist.

The problem with Republican candidates the last decade or so, if we compare them to selecting professional sports players to fill out a team, is that today, the only people Republicans hire any more are mascots.. Dancing clowns who don't have to actually even understand the rules of the game or have any skill at it, just dancing clowns in funny suits that amuse the audience. And don't @ me about the athleticism of mascots; you're correct that this analogy is unfair. To the people dressed like an anthropomorphic bull or tiger or whatever, not unfair to Republican candidates.

[Kaleredar]

Their support for candidates like Oz/Walker really shows that they don't believe what they preach on issues. If you're willing to forgive everything they've said and done for more power then the only thing you really care about is power. Makes it impossible to take republicans seriously on any issue. You already know they're lying and don't actually mean what they say.

It's basically the same thing they pulled by voting for Trump. Their supposed beliefs are completely hollow and don't actually exist.

Yes.

They fear "liberal overreach" more than they care about any sort of moral consistency with their candidates. So long as their candidate has an R next to their name, they will vote for them.

What are the things they fear? Gays, muslims, jews, brown people, abortions, socialists, taking their guns, "the woke media;" they feel safe that these things will be sufficiently brutalized under a conservative regime that working towards a rubber-stamp conservative majority, no matter how despicable, two-faced, or hypocritical their candidate or how nebulous a candidate's plans to do the brutalizing are, is their only concern.

And I've not heard a single conservative poster here say anything to the contrary.

[Xyonai]

And I've not heard a single conservative poster here say anything to the contrary.

To be fair most of the more outspoken ones have been banned for years. Or just don't show up anymore.

[Corvus]

I remember when the Polls gave Hillary Clinton a clear victory win 12-days prior to election day in 2016. Meanwhile, in July of 2016, Michael Moore said Trump would win.

Wonder what Michael Moore is saying now.

Just my $0.02

From what I've heard he was saying polls are wrong and democrats will retain both chambers.

[Kaleredar]

From what I've heard he was saying polls are wrong and democrats will retain both chambers.

That would certainly be nice, if for no other reason than to prevent the GOP from causing abject harm to the country. I'll believe it when I see it, though.

[fwc577]

From what I've heard he was saying polls are wrong and democrats will retain both chambers.

This is correct. He's running a daily blog giving reasons why he think it will happen each day. Some of his stuff is pretty interesting to read.

I saw this post on Reddit as well and thought it was an interesting take on the subject:

There are some rather compelling reasons to suspect that there's could be a systemic polling bias this year that makes polls look redder than they are, most of which are related to serious issues with sample design.

Pollsters weight registered voter samples based on demographic characteristics reported in the sample versus the general population, but thanks to COVID the numbers we have in the general population are known to be considerably off, particularly in red states and red counties. The result is that the weighting of a registered voter sample using those inputs is going to produce a weighted sample that is significantly to the right of the actual population.

Additionally, there's the perception that "conservatives are less likely to respond", which pollsters arrived at after the results in 2016 and 2020. Not wanting to keep their 1/3 accuracy streak (2018) they're likely to apply some subjective, not-quantitatively-based weighting to further push the registered voter sample to the right, something that would have a high risk over-correcting given the demographic problems noted above.

Finally, every pollster wants to produce a "likely voter" sample, and the most robust methods of doing so (which involve a mixture of asking the registered respondent how likely they are to vote and then weighting based on historical exit poll data indicating demographic groups' participation in in the election) are just going to magnify the error further.

I'm not saying these are simple issues to correct for-- the problem is fundamentally a case of data from the Census bureau being significantly compromised by real-world developments over the last two and a half years, and no one wants to go back to the dark ages and just use raw poll results. (Nor should they.) We also don't have a sample of elections with these considerations at play to be able to apply any kind of adjustment (N currently = 0).

I don't know why the prognosticators like Nate Silver aren't talking about these issues, but I suspect it has a lot to do with the fact that their bosses want the "horse race" reported as such.

I don't want to make it seem like I think there will be a blue tsunami in November, but I do think that the fatalism that the media is pushing extremely hard is intentional disinformation. The Democrats are in a considerably stronger place with the electorate than the political journalists want you to believe they are.

[Somewhatconcerned]

There appears to be a regression to the mean with GOP regaining momentum again.

My predictions for some relevant races:

JD Vance wins easily, 8+ points
Both Oz and Walker win super tight races
Ron Johnson wins easily in WI
Laxalt wins in Nevada
Mark Kelly holds on in AZ

For House: GOP flips around 20 seats

Governor's mansions:
DeSantis wins easily
Hobbs holds off Kari Lake in AZ....barely
Shapiro beats Mastriano
One of either NY or Oregon will surprise and elect a GOP governor

[Shadowferal]

Your delusional if you imagine Oz has a chance in PA.