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  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Soulwind View Post
    To OP's credit, not that he deserves any, "RNG is RNG" is often not quite true in modern gaming, and when countries go "can we see the algorithm behind your lootboxes?" and companies reply with "we'd rather not release the game there", you know it's not just a dice roll.
    Not necessarily. Just that if you know there's a 0.1% chance you get the result you want, you're not as likely to throw increasing amount of money at it as if you think it's a 1% or 10% chance

  2. #42
    When an item has a 50% chance to drop it does not mean you will get it on your 2nd kill.
    It means every time you "roll" for it (kill / loot / whatever) it has a 50% chance to drop. Every. single. time.

    Random is random. Sometimes you get Ashes of Alar on your first pull. Sometimes you spend 45 minutes farming the last Zevra Hoof.

    Also, the rare in the cave is 100% guaranteed to drop a key fragment.
    The respawn rate is not that bad but you can layer hop to farm it even.

  3. #43
    I like how WowIsDead64 throws concepts like binomial distribution and charts forth like they actually mean something from a single example array (Himself and how he feels about how much things are dropping). Those are worthless unless you gather thousands of datapoints over a period of extended time. Otherwise you are like the fable of the dude that filled a glass with seawater and then pointed towards it "See, there are no whales in the ocean".

    If I roll 10 six sided dices today, I might get five sixes.
    Tomorrow I might get 8
    The day after I might get none at all.

    They are still random. RNG does not in any way guarantee even distribution. Today you'll see higher drops, tomorrow you might see fewer and some days you might not see any at all. RNG gives spikes and valleys.

    Now, that being said. I do not doubt that rng is being manipulated in some way across the board. At certain times, and during certain events, rng probabilities might be adjusted, its just how games work. But the way you stated things is jus flawed.

    Edit: Now if only my damn hurikon would drop. 4k+ attempts in and damn strange goop doesnt drop. #GoodRNGBlizz!

  4. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by Temp name View Post
    Not necessarily. Just that if you know there's a 0.1% chance you get the result you want, you're not as likely to throw increasing amount of money at it as if you think it's a 1% or 10% chance
    I mean, we know that there are literal copyrighted systems for matchmaking and lootboxes to maximize engagement and profits. You don't file a patent for a line of code that generates a number between one and a million.

    Now that people are starting to see these things as gambling and proper laws are starting to appear, they may have to go back to pure RNG with disclosed odds, but before this? They had no reason not to cheat.

    Again, I doubt quest drops are anything but simple RNG, but I wouldn't be surprised to learn that other supposedly RNG based things within the game have a bit more depth, even if the goal was as simple/harmless as reducing server load/storage.

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by WowIsDead64 View Post
    Ohh. I've forgotten about it. Key fragment limitation - is the stupidest thing ever made by Blizzard. I can have any number of keys themselves, but can't loot more than 5 fragments, so I need to turn 5 to key first and only then loot next fragment? Man, that's genius.

    P.S. Calculator can be used to calculate binomial distribution. Unfortunately there is no calculator for reversed function - it has to be brute forced.
    oh no you mean you have to turn 5 into a key BEFORE looting your next key fragment! oh the humanity!

  6. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by WowIsDead64 View Post
    May be I miss something, but sometimes key fragment drop rate seems to be 30-50%. For example on character on server X. But sometimes I kill 30 mobs and get zero drops. For example when I switch to other character on server Y. Sometimes I kill 30 mobs in a row without any key drops, but then they start to drop from every mob. You know. Elites aren't easy to kill solely. They're supposed to be challenging. Killing them for no reward is pointless waste of time. How can you explain it? When such RNG manipulations happen, I really feel that devs are cheating me.
    First of all you don't understande drop rates. For example if a drop rate is 30% it doesn't mean you are guarnteed to get 3 fragments after 10 kills because every kill is and independat event so randomness is seprate for each one. With randomness we have something called Law of Large Numbers and it states that only for very large number of random indepentant events you will notice the number of successes is close to the success rate in that randomness. So for example after 10 Billion kills you are guaranteed to get about 3 Bilion fragments(it won't be exact because exact 30% can only be guarnateed at infinite number of kills).

    Randomness is random and therefore is inconsistant by it's very nature. Your sample isn't big enough to even deduct the drop rate and even with 30% not getting anything after 30 kills is consistent with how randomness behaves.

    There might be some drop rate manipulation implemented in game or not. I don't know but what you see is consistant with how RNG should behave according to Maths.

  7. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by MrLachyG View Post
    oh no you mean you have to turn 5 into a key BEFORE looting your next key fragment! oh the humanity!
    Just to add to that point, there is a gameplay reason why you have to turn it into a key before looting the next fragment. If you only got the fragments you are more likely to forget about them when it comes to opening a chest. "Oh, a chest. gonna quickly just op.. oh, I dont have a key. Oh well, moving on" all the while carrying 20 fragments.

    Personally I think its kinda smart.

  8. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by Vampyr78 View Post
    There might be some drop rate manipulation implemented in game or not. I don't know but what you see is consistant with how RNG should behave according to Maths.
    Cause most games work exactly like that, its pseudo-RNG from drop rate manipulation, but to which extend and when, you cant really know, the data is not hardcoded afaik, otherwise the private server owners would know etc, and they definitely tweak them.

    WoW was always like this, and most MMO games are like this.

    I mean, anecdotal evidence, but when i am on a new just dinged alt in LFR, i just run around like a tard, pretending i dont know, i goof around, voila 5 items out of 10 bosses.

    Play properly on second exactly same alt , 1/10 items, repeat first alt, 5-6 items.

    For the last 10 years, and whenever friends do it also, the worse you play, the more rewards you get in LFR, anecdotal, but works for me
    Last edited by potis; 2022-08-08 at 12:46 PM.

  9. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by Vampyr78 View Post
    First of all you don't understande drop rates. For example if a drop rate is 30% it doesn't mean you are guarnteed to get 3 fragments after 10 kills because every kill is and independat event so randomness is seprate for each one. With randomness we have something called Law of Large Numbers and it states that only for very large number of random indepentant events you will notice the number of successes is close to the success rate in that randomness. So for example after 10 Billion kills you are guaranteed to get about 3 Bilion fragments(it won't be exact because exact 30% can only be guarnateed at infinite number of kills).

    Randomness is random and therefore is inconsistant by it's very nature. Your sample isn't big enough to even deduct the drop rate and even with 30% not getting anything after 30 kills is consistent with how randomness behaves.

    There might be some drop rate manipulation implemented in game or not. I don't know but what you see is consistant with how RNG should behave according to Maths.
    What I constantly try to explain - is that higher droprate is, lower chance for no-item streak is. For example it's hard to see any difference between 1% and 0.1% droprates. But difference between 50% and 3% is quite noticeable. Even in short term. Especially in short term.

    P.S. This is major reason, why players ask to return guaranteed sources of gear, like gear vendors for example. Because RNG is completely unreliable in this game. And this is reason, why sometimes I hate this game. Because devs are cheating me. Nobody wants to play game, where he is doomed to lose, because loss is preprogrammed.

  10. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by WowIsDead64 View Post
    What I constantly try to explain - is that higher droprate is, lower chance for no-item streak is. For example it's hard to see any difference between 1% and 0.1% droprates. But difference between 50% and 3% is quite noticeable. Even in short term. Especially in short term.

    P.S. This is major reason, why players ask to return guaranteed sources of gear, like gear vendors for example. Because RNG is completely unreliable in this game. And this is reason, why sometimes I hate this game. Because devs are cheating me. Nobody wants to play game, where he is doomed to lose, because loss is preprogrammed.
    lol

    Yeah, no, there's very little difference between 0.1 and 1%... EXCEPT ITS TEN TIMES MORE LIKELY.
    and yes, the higher the droprate the lower the chance for a no-item streak, but it is not zero. You're just unlucky.

    /thread

  11. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by WowIsDead64 View Post
    What I constantly try to explain - is that higher droprate is, lower chance for no-item streak is. For example it's hard to see any difference between 1% and 0.1% droprates. But difference between 50% and 3% is quite noticeable. Even in short term. Especially in short term.

    P.S. This is major reason, why players ask to return guaranteed sources of gear, like gear vendors for example. Because RNG is completely unreliable in this game. And this is reason, why sometimes I hate this game. Because devs are cheating me. Nobody wants to play game, where he is doomed to lose, because loss is preprogrammed.
    again, why do you care? the Sandworn chests give basically nothing, are not required for anything outside the weekly where they give a whopping 1% and don't give any notable rewards. if you're going to pick something to complain about then at least pick something actually meaningful.

  12. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by talmir View Post
    lol

    Yeah, no, there's very little difference between 0.1 and 1%... EXCEPT ITS TEN TIMES MORE LIKELY.
    and yes, the higher the droprate the lower the chance for a no-item streak, but it is not zero. You're just unlucky.

    /thread
    Deviation is the highest for just one drop. If items drop after 500 tries, then it can be both unlucky 1% or lucky 0.1%. But when droprate is 50%, items drops very often. And no-item streaks are very noticeable. If item drops from every 2nd mob on one character, but doesn't drop after 30 kills on another - it should make you think.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by MrLachyG View Post
    again, why do you care? the Sandworn chests give basically nothing, are not required for anything outside the weekly where they give a whopping 1% and don't give any notable rewards. if you're going to pick something to complain about then at least pick something actually meaningful.
    They drop ~30 relics. It's almost half of amount, dropped from weekly chest. I don't do M+ and raids. Even LFR. This is only source of class sets for me.

  13. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by WowIsDead64 View Post
    Deviation is the highest for just one drop. If items drops after 500 tries, then it can be both unlucky 1% or lucky 0.1%. But when droprate is 50%, items drops very often. And no-item streaks are very noticeable. If item drops from every 2nd mob on one character, but doesn't drop after 30 kills on another - it should make you think.
    Yep. It makes me think you got unlucky on that character. Someone earlier in this thread mentioned that maybe if some quest is finished the droprate lowers. Maybe thats it.

  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by talmir View Post
    Yep. It makes me think you got unlucky on that character. Someone earlier in this thread mentioned that maybe if some quest is finished the droprate lowers. Maybe thats it.
    But that's exact definition of loot manipulation. Isn't it? You should understand one simple thing. I do this content on 4 same-class alts at the same time. Because I leveled them back in old times, when free covenant switching wasn't allowed. This way I can get 4x relics and get tier set 4x quicker. Why droprate is high for one alt, but low for another? Same quests are done on all characters.

  15. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by WowIsDead64 View Post
    But that's exact definition of loot manipulation. Isn't it? You should understand one simple thing. I do this content on 4 same-class alts at the same time. Because I leveled them back in old times, when free covenant switching wasn't allowed. This way I can get 4x relics and get tier set 4x quicker. Why droprate is high for one alt, but low for another? Same quests are done on all characters.
    IIRC there is a quest that introduces you to the relics. If thats finished it makes sense for the droprate to drop since for the quest the chance should be high. But if both characters finished the quest then the odds are the same for both characters and any variation you notice is down to your own perception, that is all.

    Regarding the dropchance in-quest and out-of-quest, you do know you are playing a game, right?

  16. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by WowIsDead64 View Post
    Everything is already counted. What this distribution say? Average value of number successes for yes/no based RNG value with probability p - is 1/p. But. It's true for infinite number of tries only. If number of tries is finite - this value can deviate from average with some chance. This distribution shows this chance. What I try to say? Exactly, what I tried to say before. This chance of deviation from average SHOULD BE CONSISTENT! If this chance is small today, then it shouldn't be big tomorrow. Because. Guess what? If number of tries is the same, but chance of deviation has changed, then there must be only one conclusion - PROBABILITY HAS CHANGED TOO! Simply because they're connected to each other by formula. Yeah. And if probability has changed - then RNG IS INCONSISTENT!



    Please note several properties of this distribution:
    1) Max chance - for expected value 1/p
    2) More deviation from expected value 1/p - smaller chance is
    3) Higher value of p - steeper drop of chance is
    4) More tries - steeper drop of chance is
    Again.. 1 account is NOT data. Please do try again, I know you can linkdrop and copy paste wikipedia. We all can do that, but nowhere in that incoherent rambling did you prove your point about RNG being not RNG in wow.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shadowmatrix View Post
    RNG means even if you have a 99% chance of success you can still fail constantly, each roll still has a 1% chance of failure. At least that's what my sniper in XCOM 2 said, WTF are you missing a 99% shot when the enemy just CRIT A 10% SHOT. Not that I'm bitter or anything.
    It's also a mental thing that OP seems to forget. Let's take your XCOM example.

    missing a 99% sure shot stays with our mind more than missing a 1% sure shot. We remember the statistical outliers, not all that fall within the norm.

  17. #57
    Quote Originally Posted by talmir View Post
    IIRC there is a quest that introduces you to the relics. If thats finished it makes sense for the droprate to drop since for the quest the chance should be high. But if both characters finished the quest then the odds are the same for both characters and any variation you notice is down to your own perception, that is all.

    Regarding the dropchance in-quest and out-of-quest, you do know you are playing a game, right?
    If I remember it correctly, my older characters didn't have such problem. I.e. my first character in ZM didn't have such problem, while just leveled one did. I'll check it on my current characters.

    And other problem - this thing has short-term effect. For example first 30 mobs don't drop anything at all. Then drop starts to slowly increase. This doesn't really looks like "fair" RNG. More like artificial preprogrammed gate.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by 8bithamster View Post
    Again.. 1 account is NOT data. Please do try again, I know you can linkdrop and copy paste wikipedia. We all can do that, but nowhere in that incoherent rambling did you prove your point about RNG being not RNG in wow.
    I do it on 8th character now. All have the same pattern. This is exact reason, why Blizzard can do it. Because nobody can prove it. Too small sample, yeah. And nobody would ever prove it, if they wouldn't do it so openly and obviously. Great thing, only loss in Wow - is time. But imagine, that the same thing happens in Diablo Immoral. Great, yeah?

  18. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by WowIsDead64 View Post
    But that's exact definition of loot manipulation. Isn't it? You should understand one simple thing. I do this content on 4 same-class alts at the same time. Because I leveled them back in old times, when free covenant switching wasn't allowed. This way I can get 4x relics and get tier set 4x quicker. Why droprate is high for one alt, but low for another? Same quests are done on all characters.
    If one character is getting lucky, and one isn't, thats perfectly normal in RNG.

    Are you believing blizz is selectively cursing some characters with less drops?

  19. #59
    Asking why RNG is Inconsistent us like asking why the colour white is so bright ?

  20. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by WowIsDead64 View Post
    If I remember it correctly, my older characters didn't have such problem. I.e. my first character in ZM didn't have such problem, while just leveled one did. I'll check it on my current characters.

    And other problem - this thing has short-term effect. For example first 30 mobs don't drop anything at all. Then drop starts to slowly increase. This doesn't really looks like "fair" RNG. More like artificial preprogrammed gate.

    - - - Updated - - -


    I do it on 8th character now. All have the same pattern. This is exact reason, why Blizzard can do it. Because nobody can prove it. Too small sample, yeah. And nobody would ever prove it, if they wouldn't do it so openly and obviously. Great thing, only loss in Wow - is time. But imagine, that the same thing happens in Diablo Immoral. Great, yeah?
    I must have missed statistics class where they covered "looks like" as a logical concept.

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