ZM inconsistent RNG?

[FelPlague]

Long term droprate isn't good measure. Because million no drops and million drops is also valid way to achieve 50% droprate in a long term. But it's not RNG. It's pattern. It can happen once in 2^2000000. My calculator refuses to deal with such big numbers.

This is literally armchair mathematician who knows nothing about how math works.

[MrLachyG]

It's not RNG. Why? Blizzard don't guarantee any droprates. So we actually can't verify them. What is collected in long term - is as meaningless, as "normal person". It can be 50% today and 1% tomorrow. Wowhead would say something like 30%. Is this 30% right number? No. What is important - DROPRATE SHOULD STAY CONSISTENT. If it's high today - it shouldn't be low tomorrow. That's it.

If the drop rates were consistent it wouldn’t be RNG

[Ragnarohk]

It's not RNG. Why? Blizzard don't guarantee any droprates. So we actually can't verify them. What is collected in long term - is as meaningless, as "normal person". It can be 50% today and 1% tomorrow. Wowhead would say something like 30%. Is this 30% right number? No. What is important - DROPRATE SHOULD STAY CONSISTENT. If it's high today - it shouldn't be low tomorrow. That's it.

Somebody doesn't know how statistics works...

What you describe is not RNG.

[WowIsDead64]

Today's stats. Doesn't look like 3%. Completely consistent with what I had yesterday, yeah.


P.S. No dailies or WQs completed. If this crap depends on daily/WQ completion, then I just wonder, what is reason for this? No WQs in northen area today. No rares killed. No relics collected from rares. Nothing, just daily chest.

[neescher]

It's not RNG. Why? Blizzard don't guarantee any droprates. So we actually can't verify them. What is collected in long term - is as meaningless, as "normal person". It can be 50% today and 1% tomorrow. Wowhead would say something like 30%. Is this 30% right number? No. What is important - DROPRATE SHOULD STAY CONSISTENT. If it's high today - it shouldn't be low tomorrow. That's it.

I don't know what to tell you. You simply don't understand how randomness works, and 20 people have tried to explain it to you in this thread alone. Ignorance is bliss, I guess

[Orange Joe]

Today's stats. Doesn't look like 3%. Completely consistent with what I had yesterday, yeah.


P.S. No dailies or WQs completed. If this crap depends on daily/WQ completion, then I just wonder, what is reason for this? No WQs in northen area today. No rares killed. No relics collected from rares. Nothing, just daily chest.

If thats all the data you are working from, you don't have nearly enough to start making claims to rates.

[Lolites]

Today's stats. Doesn't look like 3%. Completely consistent with what I had yesterday, yeah.


P.S. No dailies or WQs completed. If this crap depends on daily/WQ completion, then I just wonder, what is reason for this? No WQs in northen area today. No rares killed. No relics collected from rares. Nothing, just daily chest.

holly hell...
if you are not trolling and honestly think 4chars are representative data set... thats beyond ignorance...
hell, 4 THOUSAND would not really be enough, but 4? FOUR?! my god...
if you honestly are not a troll and are serious about this get some education and probably some profesional help too bcs this is mental...

[Lochton]

Today's stats. Doesn't look like 3%. Completely consistent with what I had yesterday, yeah.


P.S. No dailies or WQs completed. If this crap depends on daily/WQ completion, then I just wonder, what is reason for this? No WQs in northen area today. No rares killed. No relics collected from rares. Nothing, just daily chest.

Your data pool is not big enough to show the right numbers.

[micwini]

Inconsistent RNG is the funniest example of pleonasm I have ever heard.

[WowIsDead64]

holly hell...
if you are not trolling and honestly think 4chars are representative data set... thats beyond ignorance...
hell, 4 THOUSAND would not really be enough, but 4? FOUR?! my god...
if you honestly are not a troll and are serious about this get some education and probably some profesional help too bcs this is mental...

Unfortunately I know it too well. Yeah, yeah. Everybody says, that I should be super-lucky or super-unlucky. But they don't tell me, how super lucky/unlucky I should be. Chance of not getting anything with 50% droprate after 30 kills - 0.0000000009. It happened with me twice yesterday. Or may be droprate is actually 3%? This would explain everything. But in this case chance of getting 20 fragments after 40 kills would be... Man... Binomial distribution calculator tells me it's 0. It can't even count. But it happened with me today, lol. May be God loves me? Or may be there is much more simple explanation? M?

It's one of reasons, why I hate online games. Hidden mechanics, changing rules on fly or even more simple - cheating. Nobody likes to play games, where rules are changed on fly or opponent is cheating. Right? My game, content, goal choice is based on info I have in advance. When devs start to change this info on fly to milk more from me - I just start to feel bad.

[8bithamster]

Unfortunately I know it too well. Yeah, yeah. Everybody says, that I should be super-lucky or super-unlucky. But they don't tell me, how super lucky/unlucky I should be. Chance of not getting anything with 50% droprate after 30 kills - 0.0000000009. It happened with me twice yesterday. Or may be droprate is actually 3%? This would explain everything. But in this case chance of getting 20 fragments after 40 kills would be... Man... Binomial distribution calculator tells me it's 0. It can't even count. But it happened with me today, lol. May be God loves me? Or may be there is much more simple explanation? M?

It's one of reasons, why I hate online games. Hidden mechanics, changing rules on fly or even more simple - cheating. Nobody likes to play games, where rules are changed on fly or opponent is cheating. Right? My game, content, goal choice is based on info I have in advance. When devs start to change this info on fly to milk more from me - I just start to feel bad.

Nobody is saying that.. If you read your topic for once, you'd see people are responding with

Your data is not a data set that is reliable.

[WowIsDead64]

Nobody is saying that.. If you read your topic for once, you'd see people are responding with

Your data is not a data set that is reliable.

But it is. What I try to say - is that even such small data set proves, that droprate just can't be low. Chance, that it's 10% - is 0.0000000002. 20% - 0.00002. 30% - 0.006. 40% - 0.129. 50% - 0.56. Yeah. Everything can happen. It can happen. In other universe, yeah. But then what happened with me yesterday - is also almost impossible. Chance for 50% - 0.0000000009. For 40% - 0.0000002. For 30% - 0.00002. For 20% - 0.001. For 10% it's 0.4. So, something around 20-30% - is the best case scenario. And it's still around 12-20/10000000, that this two events could happen. It's just two days. Just 4 characters. But this isn't first time, when it happens. And not last. Please think about it.

[schwarzkopf]

Talking about RNG, I've been checking daily to get a ZM shoulder item for my hunter for 2 months ... never show up.

Ever since the weapons became available - I get them.

Is that RNG - who knows, but it is annoying.

[MrLachyG]

mods why are you letting this dumpster fire of a thread continue. either OP is a massive troll, and is trying his best to bait people into an infraction by insulting his intelligence, or is so incredibly unaware of what statistics and RNG mean that despite multiple attempts to tell him he's wrong that he still stubbornly thinks that he is right. either way, just fucking close this shit. it's going around and around in circles

[schwarzkopf]

or is so incredibly unaware of what statistics and RNG mean

Statistically speaking, for a 3 sigma statistical finding, 1 in 300 people are correct that it isn't chance - but a flaw or fault.

With 8 slots covered by ZM open world gear drops (the 252 stuff) - what are the chances that on average 2 items of gear each day are never a shoulder item over a period of 60 days (120 sample size).

[talmir]

What I try to say - is that even such small data set proves, that droprate just can't be low.

My compatriot. My brother under the sun. You do not have the dataset to show a damn thing.

[Deneios]

Today's stats. Doesn't look like 3%. Completely consistent with what I had yesterday, yeah.


P.S. No dailies or WQs completed. If this crap depends on daily/WQ completion, then I just wonder, what is reason for this? No WQs in northen area today. No rares killed. No relics collected from rares. Nothing, just daily chest.

If you take glass and fill it with sea water, you cant say that there are no sharks in the ocean because there is none in your glass.

[schwarzkopf]

If you take glass and fill it with sea water, you cant say that there are no sharks in the ocean because there is none in your glass.

That's an invalid comparison, the correct comparison is selecting 42 swimming creatures from the sea and finding none of them were sharks, the sample is not invalid, just insufficient.

[kranur]

How many more people do you need to tell you that you have an insignificant number of attempts from which to draw a valid conclusion?
Even if the drop rate was in fact 50%, that still means that sometimes it will take multiple attempts before it drops. It's just how probability works. But on top of that, did Blizzard make a disclosure and say, here the drop rate for this item is x%?

[Zhang]

This thread made me actually log into my account that I haven't used in literal year just to say that I'm impressed. In the decade+ that I've been coming to this website I've never seen anyone be able to actually unite the community on anything. Not a single post agreeing with you and everyone telling you how wrong you are. Kudos