ROME — Italy doesn’t feel like a country that’s about to swing to the far right.
Two-thirds of Italians say they’re optimistic about the future of the European Union, whose stimulus helped buoy the country — and boost the image of the bloc — after the pandemic’s economic shock. What’s more, the country has been led for the last year and a half by economist Mario Draghi, a paragon of centrist stability who continues to earn high approval ratings.
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But if the national elections on Sunday go as expected, Draghi’s successor as prime minister will be Giorgia Meloni, a firebrand from the Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy) party who wants her country to push for more autonomy in Europe, blockade the Mediterranean against undocumented immigrants and defend a traditional family identity she says is under attack.
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Crucially, in a country rebuilt after the ruins of war and fascism, Meloni would be the first Italian leader from a party with a post-fascist lineage — as well as a tricolor flame logo that harks back to an earlier, more extreme political movement formed shortly after Mussolini’s death. She would take power 100 years after the March on Rome, the death knell for Italian democracy before World War II.
Here are the factors — historical, contemporary and structural — that have made such a scenario possible.
Ping-pong politics
Instability is at the heart of Italian politics, and incongruous zigzags are a feature of the system, not a bug. Since the end of World War II, Italy has cycled through governments every 400 days or so. Careers rise and crash at super-speed. Voters coalesce around parties and then drop them. To the extent that there’s any recent constant, it’s that 40 to 50 percent of voters tend to favor the right. And Meloni, in recent years, has pulled votes away from competing parties — in part because Fratelli d’Italia has remained in opposition.