Trump/Biden/DeSantis 2024?

[Doctor Amadeus]

Trump, Biden or Desantis 2024 Who would you vote for President?

If none of the Above write it in the comments.

[Shadowferal]

Currently, The only difference between Trump and DeSantis is one is a bigger blowhard.

[Doctor Amadeus]

Currently, The only difference between Trump and DeSantis is one is a bigger blowhard.

DeSantis is a lot smarter and more capable. I don’t like him but. I wouldn’t worry he had the nuke codes.

[Shadowferal]

DeSantis is a lot smarter and more capable. I don’t like him but. I wouldn’t worry he had the nuke codes.

Ouch. You've definitely got a point there.

[Breccia]

DeSantis is a lot smarter and more capable. I don’t like him but. I wouldn’t worry he had the nuke codes.

DeSantis is also a candidate with a proven successful, if amoral, track record. Trump barely won with nothing but tax fraud and adultery, because he had an R by his name people held their nose and voted for him anyhow. That...won't happen in 2024, not to the extent required. DeSantis will get moderates back, and is savvy enough to say both "I believe Trump won" and "but he can't win" in such a way to get both blocks.

...unless Trump also runs. And we're already seeing the bad blood spilled and neither has announced yet.

So, making up shit here, there are three let's say equal options.
1) Trump runs.
2) DeSantis runs.
3) They both run.

Harris wins #1 and #3, while the nation goes to crap in #2.

[The Stormbringer]

DeSantis is also a candidate with a proven successful, if amoral, track record. Trump barely won with nothing but tax fraud and adultery, because he had an R by his name people held their nose and voted for him anyhow. That...won't happen in 2024, not to the extent required. DeSantis will get moderates back, and is savvy enough to say both "I believe Trump won" and "but he can't win" in such a way to get both blocks.

...unless Trump also runs. And we're already seeing the bad blood spilled and neither has announced yet.

So, making up shit here, there are three let's say equal options.
1) Trump runs.
2) DeSantis runs.
3) They both run.

Harris wins #1 and #3, while the nation goes to crap in #2.

Stop saying Harris is going to run for President. She wouldn't run. I don't know where people are getting this idea.

[Powerogue]

I'm actually dumbfounded that I live in a country where Desantis, who killed thousands of his own people with his ludicrous covid policies, or Trump, who attempted to overthrow his own election and stole classified documents and squirreled them away in his basement on the way out, are even allowed to be on the ballot.

Like what the fuck? How are we even here?

[Breccia]

Stop saying Harris is going to run for President.

No. That's still my prediction.

[The Stormbringer]

No.

Why? It's not going to happen. She's not nearly popular enough among Dems or anyone else to run solo. VPs running historically tend to not do well. She knows this, the Democratic Party knows this. Either Biden will run again, or they'll find someone completely new.

[Breccia]

Why? It's not going to happen.

I disagree. We'll find out at the same time.

[Spectral]

VPs running historically tend to not do well.

When? Biden won, Pence hasn't run (yet), Cheney didn't run, Gore basically tied, Bush the Elder won, and that takes us back through 40+ years of Vice Presidents. I don't think it makes much sense to draw conclusions from earlier periods.

[Breccia]

Pence hasn't run (yet)

I get your point, but...yeah, we can safely rule this one out at this point. Normally I use terms like "Pence would rather die" but we all know the choice would be made for him.

[The Stormbringer]

When? Biden won, Pence hasn't run (yet), Cheney didn't run, Gore basically tied, Bush the Elder won, and that takes us back through 40+ years of Vice Presidents. I don't think it makes much sense to draw conclusions from earlier periods.

It's less about if they ran and more about general popularity. VPs just aren't as popular as Presidents. I'd also say there's a difference between a VP running immediately after their President's first term and a VP running over a term later after their President finished two terms. The situation is not a good one for a VP to win, let alone an unpopular one like Kamala.

[Breccia]

It's less about if they ran and more about general popularity. VPs just aren't as popular as Presidents.

2024 if Harris runs doesn't have a lot of great recent parallels. Gerald Ford got his ass kicked in 1976 but Nixon couldn't have run in 1976 anyhow. And Ford pardoning Nixon made him so unpopular, we elected Jimmy Carter. Nothing about this situation is remotely close to Harris running instead of Biden. To find a time when a VP ran in place of their President who could have run, we're talking Truman. Who won in 1948 since FDR was dead. Not exactly recent history.

[Spectral]

It's less about if they ran and more about general popularity. VPs just aren't as popular as Presidents. I'd also say there's a difference between a VP running immediately after their President's first term and a VP running over a term later after their President finished two terms. The situation is not a good one for a VP to win, let alone an unpopular one like Kamala.

I'm fine with the Kamala-specific claim that she polls very poorly, I'm just skeptical of the claim with regard to VPs more broadly. I suppose it's pretty obviously true that they'll tend to be less popular (they probably would have been the President if they were more popular), but if the Biden Presidency was a popular Presidency, I would expect the VP to have an excellent chance, the same way Bush I, Gore, and Biden all did fine in their races.

[Ivanstone]

2024 if Harris runs doesn't have a lot of great recent parallels. Gerald Ford got his ass kicked in 1976 but Nixon couldn't have run in 1976 anyhow. And Ford pardoning Nixon made him so unpopular, we elected Jimmy Carter. Nothing about this situation is remotely close to Harris running instead of Biden. To find a time when a VP ran in place of their President who could have run, we're talking Truman. Who won in 1948 since FDR was dead. Not exactly recent history.

LBJ also ran under similar circumstances. Of course he had an extra couple years to put up some reasonable legislation.

[Breccia]

LBJ also ran under similar circumstances.

Well, fuck, I can't believe I forgot that. Yes, the death of JFK led to LBJ running in 1964. Still not recent, but more recent than Truman.

[Kathranis]

Saying this with the knowledge that two years is a long time in politics and the landscape can shift dramatically:

For the Democrats...

If Biden's health fails and/or he doesn't run, I'd put my money on Pete Buttiegieg getting the Democratic nomination. He performed really well in the 2020 primaries, he's young, he has a military record, he's charismatic and well-liked enough, he has no real controversies to his name, and I'm firmly of the belief that a white gay man has a way better chance of being elected than a woman, let alone a woman of color.

Harris is too unpopular. I don't think she'd run and if she did she wouldn't make it through the Primaries. I don't think any of the other Democratic frontrunners have made much of a name for themselves yet, apart from maybe Whitmer with how well Michigan did in the midterms, but I don't think she's there yet. Obviously the spotlight will start to shine on rising stars in the ramp up to 2024 so things might change.

Personally, I'm kinda wishing someone would come out of left field and run, like an Al Gore or a Jon Stewart, but that's exceedingly unlikely.


For the Republicans...

It'll be DeSantis going up against Trump and I can't wait for the shit show. DeSantis is fashy and conniving, Trump is stupid and temperamental. It'll tear apart the GOP and tank both of their chances. If Trump gets the nom he loses. If Ron gets the nom, Trump flips the board and sabotages the campaign.

Only way I can see that it won't turn into a complete disaster for the Republicans is if they can get Trump to bow out in exchange for some sort of immunity deal for his legal troubles, and I'm not sure that's something they'll be able to do at this point.

[Draco-Onis]

For the Republicans...

It'll be DeSantis going up against Trump and I can't wait for the shit show. DeSantis is fashy and conniving, Trump is stupid and temperamental. It'll tear apart the GOP and tank both of their chances. If Trump gets the nom he loses. If Ron gets the nom, Trump flips the board and sabotages the campaign.

Only way I can see that it won't turn into a complete disaster for the Republicans is if they can get Trump to bow out in exchange for some sort of immunity deal for his legal troubles, and I'm not sure that's something they'll be able to do at this point.

Here's the main problem with DeSantis the man has zero charisma or entertainment value, he is fine with one liners but it will be pretty clear early on that he is a cheap imitation of Trump. I doubt he will last long in a primary against him, the best solution would be for him to be VP but Trump has shown he has no problem hanging I mean backstabbing his VP.

[xmirrors]

What a tragedy for DeSantis. It's likely his best shot at a presidential run with his current momentum, but it's also not a landscape he should be eager to enter. If he wins the primary, how does he win the general with the Trump-loyal base? My prediction is that he maintains his silence on the subject, doesn't respond to anything Trump is saying, and doesn't make a '24 run.

Of course, I personally think this would crush his chances at any future presidential run but he hasn't really shown interest anyway. /shrug
i think we're headed for a '24 run with Trump, possibly a rematch.