Rated Solo Shuffle dead on arrival at this rate

[Cyberjynx]

Win 6/6 rounds and receive about 15 to 20 conquest points combined with people constantly leaving all the time will be a disaster if these two things aren't mended in some form. And I get it, Blizzard is between a rock and hard place as they cannot give too harsh of punishments as it also affects people who DC or have to leave due to more important matters. However, the 15 points reward needs to be amended... In case some of you need reminding, part of the reason for the rated solo shuffle was to benefit those of us who don't have a huge amount to play WoW hours upon hours daily...

[Lorgar Aurelian]

pretty sure grouped 2's give you like 25 per win so 15-20 for solo seems perfectly fair given that you don't need to deal with finding a partner.

[HansOlo]

Win 6/6 rounds and receive about 15 to 20 conquest points combined with people constantly leaving all the time will be a disaster if these two things aren't mended in some form. And I get it, Blizzard is between a rock and hard place as they cannot give too harsh of punishments as it also affects people who DC or have to leave due to more important matters. However, the 15 points reward needs to be amended... In case some of you need reminding, part of the reason for the rated solo shuffle was to benefit those of us who don't have a huge amount to play WoW hours upon hours daily...

No. The point was not reducing the hours of playtime. It was to reduce the time finding a group. If you have friends - playing it oldschool is still better and more rewarding(the majority doesn't have arena friends - that's why they implemented this).

It's a big difference. And I expect it will turn out just fine. People are trying out right now.

[loras]

Win 6/6 rounds and receive about 15 to 20 conquest points combined with people constantly leaving all the time will be a disaster if these two things aren't mended in some form. And I get it, Blizzard is between a rock and hard place as they cannot give too harsh of punishments as it also affects people who DC or have to leave due to more important matters. However, the 15 points reward needs to be amended... In case some of you need reminding, part of the reason for the rated solo shuffle was to benefit those of us who don't have a huge amount to play WoW hours upon hours daily...

Not an unfair point of consideration, but it'd probably be wiser to let it play out like this for a season.
At the end of it it should be clear enough whether it's an issue that needs solving.

Personally i am inclined to say that it should award only a little less than a 2v2 - per won round, the rating increases too should be more extreme based on the same consideration.

But again, can't be sure until it's given a spin once at least.

[HansOlo]

Not an unfair point of consideration, but it'd probably be wiser to let it play out like this for a season.
At the end of it it should be clear enough whether it's an issue that needs solving.

Personally i am inclined to say that it should award only a little less than a 2v2 - per won round, the rating increases too should be more extreme based on the same consideration.

But again, can't be sure until it's given a spin once at least.

Chances for you to win a shuffle is lower, compared to a fixed 2v2. That's simple statistics.

Because of that, time spent is not rewarded fairly. But - it shouldn't be compared either. It's 2 different gamestyles.

I think the comparsion is not fair

[doodle90]

Shuffle takes like 3x longer than a 2s as well so it should reward more per shuffle.

[RobertMugabe]

Win 6/6 rounds and receive about 15 to 20 conquest points combined with people constantly leaving all the time will be a disaster if these two things aren't mended in some form. And I get it, Blizzard is between a rock and hard place as they cannot give too harsh of punishments as it also affects people who DC or have to leave due to more important matters. However, the 15 points reward needs to be amended... In case some of you need reminding, part of the reason for the rated solo shuffle was to benefit those of us who don't have a huge amount to play WoW hours upon hours daily...

The amount of conquest you earn is going to be just slightly below 2s afaik, so that is not an issue.

Solo Q obviously solves the issue where you don't have to specifically find people to play with and match their schedules and of course it makes the entry into arena itself a lot easier as a noob, as you can learn how to play arena without potentially facing a lot of rejection and toxicity in 2s/3s. This is the actual reason why people have wanted this feature in the first place and IMO Solo Shuffle does deliver on that. And of course it also serves as a point where you can connect to people, like if you see someone good you can whisper them after the match and do 2s/3s together.

I am confident that Solo Shuffle alone will add a big boost to the overall arena pop in DF S1, especially when it comes to brand new people to arena.

[loras]

Chances for you to win a shuffle is lower, compared to a fixed 2v2. That's simple statistics.

Because of that, time spent is not rewarded fairly. But - it shouldn't be compared either. It's 2 different gamestyles.

I think the comparsion is not fair

How so?
On average any pvp gametype has a 50/50 win/loss ratio, for every loss there is a corresponding win - or your numbers are incomplete.

I do agree that pvp in general rewards rather poorly in WoW, indeed for failing to account for that, but that's not limited to this new mode.

[HansOlo]

How so?
On average any pvp gametype has a 50/50 win/loss ratio, for every loss there is a corresponding win - or your numbers are incomplete.

I do agree that pvp in general rewards rather poorly in WoW, indeed for failing to account for that, but that's not limited to this new mode.

I failed elementary school maths - so please correct me.

But how is an average game 50/50? It's not like you are throwing coins.

2v2=4 players, 1 round, 2 teams.

Shuffle=6players, 6 rounds, 6 teams.

My logic says it's way harder to determine the shuffle match outcome.

[loras]

I failed elementary school maths - so please correct me.

But how is an average game 50/50? It's not like you are throwing coins.

2v2=4 players, 1 round.

Shuffle=6players, 6 rounds.

My logic says it's way harder to determine the shuffle match outcome.

You do these sorts of probability calculation by looking at the possible results (or you can get into Bayesian maths, but even if you aren't joking about failing elementary maths i'd recommend more than a few swigs of vodka before making your first few attempts at that).

Bottom line in this case is that there is really only one outcome: one winner and one loser (or if you want to needlessly complicate matters: Pointless and thus ignorable draws).

Meaning it's not even a matter of probability calculations unless you want to abuse the shit out of the rules for show-off points; on average it can literally only be 50/50 due to every winner having a loser.

Now it's an entirely different question of what your (nonspecific singular) chances at winning any given match are, but i would really recommend not abusing probability for trying to determine that and just face that it's not a game of chance when you're trying to analyse it as a whole.


Also i do not mean to discourage you from studying Bayes' work, especially on the principal level, it's just that my own experiences with it are intrinsically tied to memories of a complete burnout.

[HansOlo]

You do these sorts of probability calculation by looking at the possible results (or you can get into Bayesian maths, but even if you aren't joking about failing elementary maths i'd recommend more than a few swigs of vodka before making your first few attempts at that).

Bottom line in this case is that there is really only one outcome: one winner and one loser (or if you want to needlessly complicate matters: Pointless and thus ignorable draws).

Meaning it's not even a matter of probability calculations unless you want to abuse the shit out of the rules for show-off points; on average it can literally only be 50/50 due to every winner having a loser.

Now it's an entirely different question of what your (nonspecific singular) chances at winning any given match are, but i would really recommend not abusing probability for trying to determine that and just face that it's not a game of chance when you're trying to analyse it as a whole.


Also i do not mean to discourage you from studying Bayes' work, especially on the principal level, it's just that my own experiences with it are intrinsically tied to memories of a complete burnout.

I mean - obviously one will win.

The main question was - would you win as a player every 2nd game on average?

I don't think so. Or?

- - - Updated - - -

Solo shuffle just multiplies the variables leading into a competitive match in a game type that has no counter pick or ban system. WoW PVP in general has fallen behind most other games, to include something like OW2 in maintaining balanced gameplay.

You can't compare WoW to anything. They are solving a big problem with this - people are desperate to find a partner and they couldn't get into PvP(a good deal of the PvP community already reached certain level after all these years).

Or people who are socially handicapped(plenty of them in WoW).

So - this would not be for the seasoned PvPer with partners.

[loras]

I mean - obviously one will win.

The main question was - would you win as a player every 2nd game on average?

I don't think so. Or?

Well, that depends.

Are you The Average?
Then yes, you should win every second game.

But since The Average is a statistical construct that does not necessarily correspond to any real player, chances are that you'll win or lose more.
And that's where that part "Now it's an entirely different question of what your (nonspecific singular) chances at winning any given match are, but i would really recommend not abusing probability for trying to determine that and just face that it's not a game of chance when you're trying to analyse it as a whole." comes along.
Your chances are determined by much more than can be discerned from just the gamemode - not in the least part your own skill, your classes, your foes, etc. etc..
It's pretty much just an abuse of statistics trying to "determine" your win chances from just a gamemode.

Now if you're getting at the matchmaking system or other forms of "deep learning", "machine learning", "AI", "Neural Networks" or other words for pretty comparable concepts: They have that additional data that is so clearly lacking from our "calculations" regarding our specific cases.

I suppose i should summarise for clarity:
When trying to determine win chances using only gamemodes you can only use the outcomes and inputs associated with it, as such you are limited to the input of <player> and the output of <win/loss/draw>. Since we have no further info it always results in <player> -> <win/loss/draw>. Since draw is irrelevant to our chances (as it does not affect the ratio of wins to losses) the output is limited to <win/loss>, which are forcefully equal due to every win demanding a loss, which results in our total of wins and losses being a perfect 50/50 split which in turn means that, yes, blinding ourselves to all other considerations mr. Average can be expected to win every other game.

[netherflame]

Shocking, people leaving a solo queue because there is no real repercussions. Its almost like we've heard this story before.

[HansOlo]

Well, that depends.

Are you The Average?
Then yes, you will win every second game.

But since The Average is a statistical construct that does not necessarily correspond to any real player, chances are that you'll win or lose more.
And that's where that part "Now it's an entirely different question of what your (nonspecific singular) chances at winning any given match are, but i would really recommend not abusing probability for trying to determine that and just face that it's not a game of chance when you're trying to analyse it as a whole." comes along.
Your chances are determined by much more than can be discerned from just the gamemode - not in the least part your own skill, your classes, your foes, etc. etc..
It's pretty much just an abuse of statistics trying to "determine" your win chances from just a gamemode.

Now if you're getting at the matchmaking system or other forms of "deep learning", "machine learning", "AI", "Neural Networks" or other words for pretty comparable concepts: They have that additional data that is so clearly lacking from our "calculations" regarding our specific cases.

I suppose i should summarise for clarity:
When trying to determine win chances using only gamemodes you can only use the outcomes and inputs associated with it, as such you are limited to the input of <player> and the output of <win/loss/draw>. Since we have no further info it always results in <player> -> <win/loss/draw>. Since draw is irrelevant to our chances (as it does not affect the ratio of wins to losses) the output is limited to <win/loss>, which are forcefully equal due to every win demanding a loss, which results in our total of wins and losses being a perfect 50/50 split which in turn means that, yes, blinding ourselves to all other considerations mr. Average can be expected to win every other game.

I want you to correct me:

You winning in a 2v2 is higher - compared to a shuffle. My logic is:

You are sitting with 5 other random people - this contributes with more variables - compared to the 2v2 gamemode.

Would you agree?

[loras]

I want you to correct me:

You winning in a 2v2 is higher - compared to a shuffle. My logic is:

You are sitting with 5 other random people - this contributes with more variables - compared to the 2v2 gamemode.

Would you agree?

I will try.

You have 1 variable versus 5, that much is true, but it says nothing about your chances being either higher or lower because of them.

So no, i would not agree.

2 x <player> -> [PVP] -> <win=loss OR draw>
6 x <player> -> [PVP] -> <win=loss OR draw>

No change in outcome.
(yes i know it's crappy semantics, sue me)

[Itisamuh]

2v2=4 players, 1 round, 2 teams.

Shuffle=6players, 6 rounds, 12 teams.

Fixed. And yes solo shuffle has a lot more variables and apparently not a very consistent way of knowing what will count as an overall win or loss, but the point people are making is that ultimately, the average over time will always be 50/50.

[HansOlo]

I will try.

You have 1 variable versus 5, that much is true, but it says nothing about your chances being either higher or lower because of them.

So no, i would not agree.

2 x <player> -> [PVP] -> <win=loss OR draw>
6 x <player> -> [PVP] -> <win=loss OR draw>

No change in outcome.
(yes i know it's crappy semantics, sue me)

You don't answer my question - you still talk about it's either a win or loss.

I'm talking about you playing with more or less variables - it's like throwing dices or playing lottery. In this case playing 2v2 is dices.

- - - Updated - - -

Fixed. And yes solo shuffle has a lot more variables and apparently not a very consistent way of knowing what will count as an overall win or loss, but the point people are making is that ultimately, the average over time will always be 50/50.

But how is overall 50/50? You see clear evidence on the rankingboard - people win more than they lose.

And thanks for the fix

Edit: if you play 100000 games - it should end up in 50/50? It kinda makes sense now.

[loras]

You don't answer my question - you still talk about it's either a win or loss.

I'm talking about you playing with more or less variables - it's like throwing dices or playing lottery. In this case playing 2v2 is dices.

- - - Updated - - -



But how is overall 50/50? You see clear evidence on the rankingboard - people win more than they lose.

And thanks for the fix

Edit: if you play 100000 games - it should end up in 50/50? It kinda makes sense now.

I talk about it being either a win or a loss because that's all that matters if your only known factor is "gamemode".
The gamemode produces games, which take unknown players and produces known outcomes (being pairs of losses and wins or draws).
It doesn't matter with how many players it's played because for every win they earn a loss is incurred by their counterpart and viceversa.

And while it's fun to try to use dice - probability calculation - here it's just not relevant as you have no independent outcomes.
Your dice rolling up a 1 says nothing how often the other numbers come up, nor does flipping a coin tell you how often the other side has or will come up (that's chance for you - it might approach a 50/50 score when approaching infinity, but no certainty can be had in specific finite cases), but a pvp game is neither a die nor a coin in that every loss incurs a win and viceversa; it's like flipping two coins of which one is always the opposite of the other.
You will always end up with a 50/50 division, which is a 50/50 chance.

[HansOlo]

I talk about it being either a win or a loss because that's all that matters if your only known factor is "gamemode".
The gamemode produces games, which take unknown players and produces known outcomes (being pairs of losses and wins or draws).
It doesn't matter with how many players it's played because for every win they earn a loss is incurred by their counterpart and viceversa.

And while it's fun to try to use dice - probability calculation - here it's just not relevant as you have no independent outcomes.
Your dice rolling up a 1 says nothing how often the other numbers come up, nor does flipping a coin tell you how often the other side has or will come up (that's chance for you - it might approach a 50/50 score when approaching infinity, but no certainty can be had in specific finite cases), but a pvp game is neither a die nor a coin in that every loss incurs a win and viceversa; it's like flipping two coins of which one is always the opposite of the other.
You will always end up with a 50/50 division, which is a 50/50 chance.

Are you saying - that when the game begins in a 2v2 - I can tell myself I have a 50/50 chance of winning - no matter the variables?

It's so frustrating that I don't have the mathmatical background(or the brain cells)to make it more evident or understand the logic.

[loras]

Are you saying - that when the game begins in a 2v2 - I can tell myself I have a 50/50 chance of winning - no matter the variables?

It's so frustrating that I don't have the mathmatical background(or the brain cells)to make it more evident or understand the logic.

No, i explicitly stated on various occasions that that is not the case unless you literally are The Average or mr. Average as i called him in another post.
But as it takes different information than just "game mode" and "number of participants" to determine your chances the only chance that can be given is that of mr. Average, and that chance is indeed 50/50.

I... can understand that it's frustrating. Honestly i truly respect your trying, and i too am trying to help.
Due to health issues i have experience both being limited and being less so, so i know that frustration.
At present i cannot do better in terms of explanation, as my headache is rising (not related to this interaction, related to my health's random fluctuations).
If i remember i will return to try to do better, as mathematics is beyond no one on the condition of proper explanation being given. Honestly most skills and knowledge are like that.

Anyway i really need to sleep now, don't hesitate to poke me regarding stuff like this, it's good to rehearse for me, relearn when appropriate and good to need to explain it as well.

Good night.