1. #28141
    Scarab Lord ercarp's Avatar
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    I mean, I like to think I have a pretty good eye for BS. In my leak spreadsheet for last year, I assigned a "credibility score" (on a scale of 0 to 5) to each leak and only the real leaks ended up having a score above 3.5, everything else was below 2 (closer to 0 most of the time).

    And to my eye, everything about the Stormbreaker "leak" is sending my BS detectors into overdrive. I would probably give it a 0.5 out of 5.

  2. #28142
    Quote Originally Posted by Wangming View Post
    I mean pictures of Bolvar were dismissed as fake and so were stills from the DF cinematics. Our radar can be off sometimes
    To be fair i still think its weird they chose bolvar mid transformation to sell as print. Two distinct colour themes he uses in the cinematic and they chose the two seconds in between when he looks a bit fake.

  3. #28143
    I am Murloc! Wangming's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ercarp View Post
    I mean, I like to think I have a pretty good eye for BS. In my leak spreadsheet for last year, I assigned a "credibility score" (on a scale of 0 to 5) to each leak and only the real leaks ended up having a score above 3.5, everything else was below 2 (closer to 0 most of the time).

    And to my eye, everything about the Stormbreaker "leak" is sending my BS detectors into overdrive. I would probably give it a 0.5 out of 5.
    If you have time I'm interested in a detailed analysis of why you think you.

  4. #28144
    Quote Originally Posted by Kiriastrasza View Post
    My thoughts exactly, people seem to be dismissing that the image is angled
    It's not that angled. The U is very clearly not the one with the squared off bit.

    If the argument is that they use a different font for this one then sure. But this isn't the case where you can argue the image being too blurry or angled to notice it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Foolicious View Post
    To be fair i still think its weird they chose bolvar mid transformation to sell as print. Two distinct colour themes he uses in the cinematic and they chose the two seconds in between when he looks a bit fake.
    I can only assume going all blue would be even more weird, and there were not any good angles for when he was all red. At least not dynamic poses like what we got, only slouched on the throne.
    The world revamp dream will never die!

  5. #28145
    Quote Originally Posted by Sondrelk View Post
    It's not that angled. The U is very clearly not the one with the squared off bit.

    If the argument is that they use a different font for this one then sure. But this isn't the case where you can argue the image being too blurry or angled to notice it.

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    I can only assume going all blue would be even more weird, and there were not any good angles for when he was all red. At least not dynamic poses like what we got, only slouched on the throne.
    All I can say is we shall see, I feel people are too quick to dismiss things here and they've been wrong many a time in the past.

  6. #28146
    Epic! Merryck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wangming View Post
    If you have time I'm interested in a detailed analysis of why you think you.
    "Detailed analysis" being just a vibe. But I feel the vibe too.

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    If that still from the Dragonflight cinematic came out today I probably would've thought it was AI to be honest ...

  7. #28147
    Scarab Lord ercarp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wangming View Post
    If you have time I'm interested in a detailed analysis of why you think you.
    I'm not saying I have some kind of superpower to be able to instantly tell between real and fake, and I could just as easily be mistaken the same as anyone else, but as someone who was engaged in making these fake leaks for years, when I look at some of these images I can recognize the same methods I used to try and make my leaks look more credible. The angles, the cropping, the fonts, the HTML edits, and the subtle weaving of established lore and facts into new but seemingly plausible BS...

    But as @Merryck said, it mostly comes down to a vibe. It's hard for me to give a detailed analysis as I'm not the best with words and I don't know the exact terminology for all of this stuff. But I'll continue to trust my gut on this stuff, for better or for worse. I'm okay with being told that I was wrong.
    Last edited by ercarp; 2023-10-13 at 08:23 AM.

  8. #28148
    I am Murloc! Wangming's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Merryck View Post
    "Detailed analysis" being just a vibe. But I feel the vibe too.

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    If that still from the Dragonflight cinematic came out today I probably would've thought it was AI to be honest ...
    People looked at it and were 100% convinced the figure in it was Garrosh due to it being a copy-paste of his model.
    Now we know G-man is nowhere near the expansion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ercarp View Post
    I'm not saying I have some kind of superpower to be able to instantly tell between real and fake, and I could just as easily be mistaken the same as anyone else, but as someone who was engaged in making these fake leaks for years, when I look at some of these images I can recognize the same methods I used to try and make my leaks look more credible. The angles, the cropping, the fonts, the HTML edits, and the subtle weaving of established lore and facts into new but seemingly plausible BS...

    But as @Merryck said, it mostly comes down to a vibe. It's hard for me to give a detailed analysis as I'm not the best with words and I don't know the exact terminology for all of this stuff. But I'll continue to trust my gut on this stuff, for better or for worse. I'm okay with being told that I was wrong.
    Well hard to argue with vibes and gut feelings. All I know is I have no idea how HTML edits work and I'm always open to new stuff from people more knowledgable than I.
    At any rate to me it seems much more plausible than the one before with the Agarrians or however they were called.

  9. #28149
    I also think a bit of pre-conceived bias can come into it as well when determining if something is fake or legit.

    The Stormbreaker ''leak'' implies seafaring content, which would ultimately mean pirates in some form. Going off this thread when pirates were being theorised, a lot of people were vehemently against the idea, and were all too willing to accept ''no pirates'' as gospel. If you're not a fan of something, you're going to subconsciously be more sceptical of a leak because you wont want the idea to come to pass.

    On the other hand, I'm more leaning towards it being real, and admittedly part of that is because I would love a seafaring/pirate/south seas expansion - so it goes both ways.

    Alternatively, we've seen it when we've had world revamp leaks, some cling onto that possible leak as being the more likely one. And so on with other concepts such as underground, elements, Lightbound etc.

    For what its worth in my heart of hearts I still believe ultimately that its just going to be a mysterious island to the west shrouded in storms, voila its Avaloren with Iridikron and Xal'atath and just essentially DF 2.0 with a fresh lick of paint with new zones, and no real big defining features.

  10. #28150
    It's called they're on huge amounts of copium

    Every legitimate leak that has come through here throughout the years had these same people picking apart everything down to the pixel and it still came out to be true lol.

    "No way a dragon race would look like this"
    "Look at the clipping!"
    "Oh the D in dragonflight looks off compared to other fonts"

    Folks came up with some wild reasons why they thought scaleface was false.

  11. #28151
    Quote Originally Posted by Santandame View Post
    I also think a bit of pre-conceived bias can come into it as well when determining if something is fake or legit.

    The Stormbreaker ''leak'' implies seafaring content, which would ultimately mean pirates in some form. Going off this thread when pirates were being theorised, a lot of people were vehemently against the idea, and were all too willing to accept ''no pirates'' as gospel. If you're not a fan of something, you're going to be subconsciously be more sceptical of a leak because you wont want the idea to come to pass.

    On the other hand, I'm more leaning towards it being real, and admittedly part of that is because I would love a seafaring/pirate/south seas expansion - so it goes both ways.

    Alternatively, we've seen it when we've had world revamp leaks, some cling onto that possible leak as being the more likely one. And so on with other concepts such as underground, elements, Lightbound etc.

    For what its worth in my heart of hearts I still believe ultimately that its just going to be a mysterious island to the west shrouded in storms, voila its Avaloren with Iridikron and Xal'atath and just essentially DF 2.0 with a fresh lick of paint with new zones, and no real big defining features.
    Honestly I agree as im vehemently against the idea of going underground or doing anymore underground content, but im not shooting their theories down as fake I just leave them to discuss it out.

  12. #28152
    Quote Originally Posted by Syphin33 View Post
    It's called they're on huge amounts of copium

    Every legitimate leak that has come through here throughout the years had these same people picking apart everything down to the pixel and it still came out to be true lol.

    "No way a dragon race would look like this"
    "Look at the clipping!"
    "Oh the D in dragonflight looks off compared to other fonts"

    Folks came up with some wild reasons why they thought scaleface was false.
    all i know you might be the one that made that stormbreaker leak since you joined today.

    SUS.

  13. #28153
    Quote Originally Posted by ImTheMizAwesome View Post
    all i know you might be the one that made that stormbreaker leak since you joined today.

    SUS.
    Nah I wouldnt take join date as anything as they could have been reading these forums for years like myself before actually joining in.

  14. #28154
    Quote Originally Posted by Syphin33 View Post
    It's called they're on huge amounts of copium

    Every legitimate leak that has come through here throughout the years had these same people picking apart everything down to the pixel and it still came out to be true lol.

    "No way a dragon race would look like this"
    "Look at the clipping!"
    "Oh the D in dragonflight looks off compared to other fonts"

    Folks came up with some wild reasons why they thought scaleface was false.
    People were also saying that Dragonflight would be a bad name for an expansion, which is ironic considering the last few pages.

    People believed Mists of Pandaria to be either a book, comic or mobile game. Battle for Azeroth was believed to be a mobile game cause of the name. Ergo, neither of those sounded like expansion names according to the hype/speculation threads at the time. Legion wasn't even on the cards at an any point even with the Jericho leak (not Scaleface I don't know why people keep attributing that leak to him unless they're the same people), which everyone ignored. The common belief on this forum was that the Legion expansion was going to be called Council of Glades.

  15. #28155
    Quote Originally Posted by Kiriastrasza View Post
    Nah I wouldnt take join date as anything as they could have been reading these forums for years like myself before actually joining in.
    Yeah i wasn't really serious, it's usually someone that just got banned.

  16. #28156
    I am Murloc! Wangming's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kiriastrasza View Post
    Nah I wouldnt take join date as anything as they could have been reading these forums for years like myself before actually joining in.
    Or could be a second account. I lost my original one for example.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Santandame View Post
    Council of Glades.
    Oh yes I remember that name. Council of Glades, Eye of Azshara, The Dark Below. Those were the Big Three.
    Of course we also have the two fallen titans Corgis Unleashed and Wrath of the Bolvar.

  17. #28157
    Quote Originally Posted by Wangming View Post
    Or could be a second account. I lost my original one for example.

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    Oh yes I remember that name. Council of Glades, Eye of Azshara, The Dark Below. Those were the Big Three.
    Of course we also have the two fallen titans Corgis Unleashed and Wrath of the Bolvar.
    Plus when Heroes of the Storm was trademarked prior to WoD announcement and there was a huge thread debating whether that was going to be 6.0. Some argued it would be the next expansion, with others (correctly) arguing it would be the Blizzard MOBA.

  18. #28158
    Scarab Lord ercarp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kiriastrasza View Post
    Honestly I agree as im vehemently against the idea of going underground or doing anymore underground content, but im not shooting their theories down as fake I just leave them to discuss it out.
    Zaralek was a bit of a letdown, wasn't it?

    I don't think the idea of an underground expansion is inherently bad though. Blizzard just needs to get a bit more creative with it.

    In Elden Ring, there's an entire underground city and it looks gorgeous. There's even a skybox, which doesn't really make sense when you're underground... But who cares? It looks cool.

    Whenever Blizzard makes underground zones, they're just regular old caves. They could be doing so much more.

  19. #28159
    I am Murloc! Wangming's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ercarp View Post

    Whenever Blizzard makes underground zones, they're just regular old caves. They could be doing so much more.
    I think the Emerald Dream zone is a good benchmark of how creative they can get these days.

  20. #28160
    Quote Originally Posted by ercarp View Post
    Zaralek was a bit of a letdown, wasn't it?

    I don't think the idea of an underground expansion is inherently bad though. Blizzard just needs to get a bit more creative with it.

    In Elden Ring, there's an entire underground city and it looks gorgeous. There's even a skybox, which doesn't really make sense when you're underground... But who cares? It looks cool.

    Whenever Blizzard makes underground zones, they're just regular old caves. They could be doing so much more.
    Yeah I hated Zaralek with every fibre of my being, I found it absolutely soul destroying and boring, so if Underground is an expansion feature, I'm totally out and my Yearly sub runs out at the end of Nov.

    Quote Originally Posted by ImTheMizAwesome View Post
    Yeah i wasn't really serious, it's usually someone that just got banned.
    <3

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