Midnight 12.X Patches & World Soul Saga Speculation Thread

[Dracullus]

Retention is better because there's less people playing. Retention numbers is something you share when things go bad, but still want to pretend things are good. It is the only number that can go up when overall interest is down. It is easier to retain a smaller base than a large one. Especially with wow where you have a small core that will always play regardless.

We never had official numbers since 2016, but I remember 3 rumors/indirect info about WoW subs:

1) On Legion launch Tom Chilton said there are 10.1 milion subs.

Blizzard response was: "This was a misquote, or some kind of misunderstanding on the part of the journalist," a rep said. "Our policy for almost a year now is that we do not talk about subscriber numbers, and Tom did not do that with this publication."

For me sounds like Blizzard just didnt wanted return to revealing numbers, because they knew they will plummed soon. And as we see soon, they were right, Legion had huge drop, just like MoP, WoD, BfA, SL. It's also not hard to believe Legion launch was same as WoD and MoP. That's why I think 10M numbers or something close to that was correct.

2) During SL release we had this info: https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...me-of-All-Time

"In the months leading up to the expansion’s release and the time since launch, the game reached and has sustained its highest number of players on monthly or longer-term subscriptions compared to the same period ahead of and following any WoW expansion in the past decade, in both the West and the East." I remind that 10 years before SL was Cataclysm launch with 12 milion peak - highest in WoW history.

Also, SL was most preordered expansion in WoW history, without significant bonuses like allied races, early access or housing. Beside cosmetic you just got DK for Pandaren and new races earlier.

3) Now compare it with sub graph provided by Blizzard on some conference. https://www.wowhead.com/news/reflect...shots:338238:4. It confirms that SL and Classic release were bigger deal than Legion.

Bellurar came with some weird pixel measuring that it was ~7 milion around SoD launch. But from graph it's clear it reached Legion launch numbers.

But that doesn't really matter, point is even SL low point was no lower than Legion one - if was even higher than BfA one. There was never huge catastrophe for wow subs in whole timeline. Of course I don't deny that they had huge PR crisis that could lead to bigger sub plummet without drastic changes in DF.

4) On top of that there is this recent "join 9 milion players" ad, but its too vague to make anything from that. Still, since 2022 we have (imo) extremely effective combo of yearly sub incentives + trading post + regular and PREDICTABLE content release + classic filling any remaining gap.

So after all that: what are base for your "Retention is better because there's less people playing" argument beside your feels?

Personally I think Blizzard is doing huge diservice to themselves by not revealing player count like Steam. It doesn't hurt WoW that much since people still perceive it at biggest MMO (still player count would show differences between all versions), but it hurts more OV2 and D4 where we see only fraction of playersbase on Steam, while competition launched on this platform.

[Xilurm]

What exactly is the benefit of adding shadow to the sunwell?

[Joshuaj]

What exactly is the benefit of adding shadow to the sunwell?

Bigger picture: Balance Light and Shadow on Azeroth = Balancing the forces whilst maintaining Azeroth's overall stability.

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Amirdrassil was the first step, as it showcased the balance of Life and Death on Azeroth.

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The Elements + Order and Disorder need that balance, though. The Order and Disorder stuff on Azeroth might occur in TLT (Namely with Sargeras and the Titans, assuming Sargeras hasn't been reordered or anything yet), but for the Elements, it might be for a future expac, especially if Decay ends up being a major threat.

[Enrif]

The Elements + Order and Disorder need that balance, though. The Order and Disorder stuff on Azeroth might occur in TLT (Namely with Sargeras and the Titans, assuming Sargeras hasn't been reordered or anything yet), but for the Elements, it might be for a future expac, especially if Decay ends up being a major threat.

Perhaps the order+disorder balance already happend. The sword. A weapon by a being of order that got infused with fel.

[Lady Atia]

Perhaps the order+disorder balance already happend. The sword. A weapon by a being of order that got infused with fel.

Actually, you may be onto something lol.

[Cheezits]

What exactly is the benefit of adding shadow to the sunwell?

The void crystal is needed to balance the energies in the Darkwell. Apparently they can't just make it light again after what Xal did.

[Joshuaj]

Perhaps the order+disorder balance already happend. The sword. A weapon by a being of order that got infused with fel.

Something is being planned with the sword in TLT, so there's that. It IS possible Silithus could end up being the location of the Order and Disorder balance thing, but I don't think it's meant to be the sword itself. Remember, even though Sargeras is a Titan, he ruled over the Twisting Nether as the God of Fel and Flame. He was anything BUT a balance. A mix? Sure. A balance? Absolutely fucking not.

[Enrif]

Actually, you may be onto something lol.

also, those three things would have one thing in common: all burrow down into the core. Amirdrassils roots reach as far as Harandar, the sword is self explanatory, and from the recent voice lines leak, the darkwell/dawnwell also drips down into the core. three opposites balanced.

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Something is being planned with the sword in TLT, so there's that. It IS possible Silithus could end up being the location of the Order and Disorder balance thing, but I don't think it's meant to be the sword itself. Remember, even though Sargeras is a Titan, he ruled over the Twisting Nether as the God of Fel and Flame. He was anything BUT a balance. A mix? Sure. A balance? Absolutely fucking not.

Yeah, but he was still a titan, and we stabilized the sword in Legion, which could have made it more balanced. Which mirrors the stabilizing of the darkwell through the elven artifacts.

[Joshuaj]

also, those three things would have one thing in common: all burrow down into the core. Amirdrassils roots reach as far as Harandar, the sword is self explanatory, and from the recent voice lines leak, the darkwell/dawnwell also drips down into the core. three opposites balanced.

I do think something needs to at least replace the sword in Silithus. Maybe a type of structure that mixes both Disorder and Order alike?

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And yes, Sargeras was still a Titan, but I do believe there needs to be more with Silithus, especially if the Sword is being dealt with in TLT.

[Enrif]

I do think something needs to at least replace the sword in Silithus. Maybe a type of structure that mixes both Disorder and Order alike?

what would be the source of disorder? the legion is scattered. The only thing that remains that might be strongly enough infused is the sword.

[Joshuaj]

what would be the source of disorder? the legion is scattered. The only thing that remains that might be strongly enough infused is the sword.

Illidan and Sargeras returning are sources enough. Just have a group of Demons still be on the side of Sargeras, and maybe have it climax to where Sargeras gives Illidan control over said Demons, and Illidan makes a new "Legion" that mixes both his Illidari and those Demons. Maybe have this new "Legion" be used to defend Azeroth and other worlds, rather than destroy it.

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You can easily make it work, and you can connect it to a future expansion that may involve the Demons (Especially since Outland has been getting built up a ton lately).

[LoreSeeker]

Sounds like they had little choice and they are attempting more to stop the Darkwell at any cost,
Liadrin cant sense any Light left in the well after Lu'ra. Context missing but they infuse it with different power and artifacts to neutralise the raging void energy. This changes the Sunwell into more a symbolic weaker but contained power and sounds to me like thematically a strong Moonwell,

Liadrin mentions also its connected to the Sun and Moon now. I hope it stays mostly golden but with hint of blue/silver to thematically match Azerite.

But overall the Sunwell seems to be like the Nightwell ending but they keep the font in a greatly diminished form, not a vessel for magic as it was.

[Dracullus]

Trading Post info shared very early this month. I think we will have flood of housing blue posts this week.

[Joshuaj]

Sounds like they had little choice and they are attempting more to stop the Darkwell at any cost,
Liadrin cant sense any Light left in the well after Lu'ra. Context missing but they infuse it with different power and artifacts to neutralise the raging void energy. This changes the Sunwell into more a symbolic weaker but contained power and sounds to me like thematically a strong Moonwell,

Liadrin mentions also its connected to the Sun and Moon now. I hope it stays mostly golden but with hint of blue/silver to thematically match Azerite.

But overall the Sunwell seems to be like the Nightwell ending but they keep the font in a greatly diminished form, not a vessel for magic as it was.

I'm gonna assume this is meant to kinda balance out the Light and the Dark within the Sunwell, hence why there's seemingly a Sun and Moon focus, as well as why there might end up being both gold and blue within the well.

If nothing else, it does sound like the Voidstorm might be gone from the Skybox, which is nice.

[Lady Atia]

also, those three things would have one thing in common: all burrow down into the core. Amirdrassils roots reach as far as Harandar, the sword is self explanatory, and from the recent voice lines leak, the darkwell/dawnwell also drips down into the core. three opposites balanced.

- - - Updated - - -



Yeah, but he was still a titan, and we stabilized the sword in Legion, which could have made it more balanced. Which mirrors the stabilizing of the darkwell through the elven artifacts.

Only issue I have with that theory is that Amirdrassil is just another world tree, right? Like, wouldn't the other worldtrees also represent life burrowing down? Similiar to the Old Gods. And Death had ICC.

[Khaza-R]

Trading Post info shared very early this month. I think we will have flood of housing blue posts this week.

Its a major holiday on Thursday in the US so unlikely

[micwini]

We never had official numbers since 2016, but I remember 3 rumors/indirect info about WoW subs:

1) On Legion launch Tom Chilton said there are 10.1 milion subs.

Blizzard response was: "This was a misquote, or some kind of misunderstanding on the part of the journalist," a rep said. "Our policy for almost a year now is that we do not talk about subscriber numbers, and Tom did not do that with this publication."

For me sounds like Blizzard just didnt wanted return to revealing numbers, because they knew they will plummed soon. And as we see soon, they were right, Legion had huge drop, just like MoP, WoD, BfA, SL. It's also not hard to believe Legion launch was same as WoD and MoP. That's why I think 10M numbers or something close to that was correct.

2) During SL release we had this info: https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...me-of-All-Time

"In the months leading up to the expansion’s release and the time since launch, the game reached and has sustained its highest number of players on monthly or longer-term subscriptions compared to the same period ahead of and following any WoW expansion in the past decade, in both the West and the East." I remind that 10 years before SL was Cataclysm launch with 12 milion peak - highest in WoW history.

Also, SL was most preordered expansion in WoW history, without significant bonuses like allied races, early access or housing. Beside cosmetic you just got DK for Pandaren and new races earlier.

3) Now compare it with sub graph provided by Blizzard on some conference. https://www.wowhead.com/news/reflect...shots:338238:4. It confirms that SL and Classic release were bigger deal than Legion.

Bellurar came with some weird pixel measuring that it was ~7 milion around SoD launch. But from graph it's clear it reached Legion launch numbers.

But that doesn't really matter, point is even SL low point was no lower than Legion one - if was even higher than BfA one. There was never huge catastrophe for wow subs in whole timeline. Of course I don't deny that they had huge PR crisis that could lead to bigger sub plummet without drastic changes in DF.

4) On top of that there is this recent "join 9 milion players" ad, but its too vague to make anything from that. Still, since 2022 we have (imo) extremely effective combo of yearly sub incentives + trading post + regular and PREDICTABLE content release + classic filling any remaining gap.

So after all that: what are base for your "Retention is better because there's less people playing" argument beside your feels?

Personally I think Blizzard is doing huge diservice to themselves by not revealing player count like Steam. It doesn't hurt WoW that much since people still perceive it at biggest MMO (still player count would show differences between all versions), but it hurts more OV2 and D4 where we see only fraction of playersbase on Steam, while competition launched on this platform.

The base is simple: They're not revealing numbers. Every company shows their numbers when doing well and obfuscates when not doing well. The latter can be using vague rethoric, using misleading numbers (retention) or not sharing at all. If you as a company can show growth, you will attract more investors, simple as that. They've been using retention since the SL debacle.

Also with the conference graph: You have to take into account that after the classic peak, the line includes classic subs. Yes, SL's lowest was around the same as Legion lowest, but SL's lowest includes classic, where Legion didnt.

All I say is that retention is something you share when things go bad and the base you're asking for is in the sentence itself. The smaller your base, the higher your retention is, because especially with long standing franchises longstanding fans will just play regardless.

They recently did the 9 million player ad thing. That might indicate things are going better, but it's still wishwash: What do they include and how is it calculated? These numbers are often artifically inflated by some 'technically right' shenanigans.
This is also the reason I said earlier that I FEEL China/classic is underestimated, because I can imagine the reopening in China generated a lot of hype around it. And we know that they mostly play classic, the creation of titanforge servers being an indication of that.

We have no official numbers and/or stats so in the end everything around this topic is based on feels + logical thinking. You're not going to find an objective source and saying the game is doing great/mid is just as much feelycraft, just most of the time it seems to be without any of the logical thinking involved.

Let's say we go by the 9 million: I'd say around half of it is China and then you have 4,5m for NA + EU, where I think around 3,5-4,0m retail and 500k-1m for classic. But its kind of impossible to attribute subs to certain modes because you can easily play both.

Anyway, all speculation. We're never going to know for sure unless they start sharing numbers again.

[Cheezits]

The fact that Xal wins and the Dawnwell is an emergency stopgap definitely assures most of the concerns about this plotline, but this won't get brought up on X by the usual gang so we'll get plenty of rainbow well mentions in the interim.

[Nymrohd]

I was specifically responding to "...but it brings up the question of why DF and apparently TWW have better retention with only a little faster cycle but lower quality...".
If things were going better they'd use numbers like "X amount of new players" or just the good ol subscriber count. There is a reason that you can't see exact numbers on that one graph from the convention. And that graph is also kind of pointless, because they just look at total subscribers, but not at what versions are being played

An increase of FOMO content plus the fact that they figured out how to temporarily reset progression mid season is my bet

[Cheezits]

An increase of FOMO content plus the fact that they figured out how to temporarily reset progression mid season is my bet

And faster resets on seasons in general, bringing players back to hit goals sooner. The amount of people quitting over low quality questline beats is remarkably low I would fathom.

For as much as I harp on K'aresh I like the raid a lot and I'm curious how this M+ season has gone. Even Ky'veza ?? is acclaimed, so they may have hit the mark on their big three gameplay loops despite the new zone itself being bupkis.