The War Within 11.X Patches & World Soul Saga Speculation Thread

[Teriz]

Well deserved. Flaws and missteps aside, I've thoroughly enjoyed this expansion. Like I said, it's definitely in my top 3, and it was a nice recovery from the abyss that was Shadowlands.

[Dracullus]

Wait, this is thing Bellurar was teasing on twitter yesterday? If so, I'm impressed, I expected some bullshit theory from comparing raid kills or m+ runs.

When I look on it, kinda make sense, (post Legion) game felt most dead around 8.1.5 and 9.1 and most alive during Classic original launch and SL launch. Only suprise is BfA, thought it was on par with Legion, but I guess it it was mid Summer. Also it's wild if game have more subs now than on DF launch.

Another thought, if it's legit it would make sense if Blizzard is behind leak. After 9 years without sub numbers there are people who think WoW have like 200k players xD. Of course I'm aware same people will either call it fake or say 90% is on these 10 SoD servers.

[Makabreska]

Wait, this is thing Bellurar was teasing on twitter yesterday? If so, I'm impressed, I expected some bullshit theory from comparing raid kills or m+ runs.

Still, he painted that in negative way, saying Retail is failing hard. Can't really judge it from this.

[Varodoc]

At least they are aware that Shadowlands' story was dogshit, that's good to know.

I do have hope for the storyline of the Worldsoul Saga to be a resounding success, like MoP and Legion stories were.

[Cheezits]

Still, he painted that in negative way, saying Retail is failing hard. Can't really judge it from this.

Bellular is obligated to say Retail bad because people are still cranky over the Gilneas patch being bad.

[Marlamin]

Tbh I'm not a huge fan of encrypted press stuff ... but it looks like they did it for plunderstorm too (or they just told creators from that tournament event what it is beforehand, but I somehow doubt that). Any chance the press alpha did already start, though?

I don't think there was a playable encrypted version of Plunderstorm, but content creators did get a preview (likely the press kit that the press doing interviews also got). I don't think the press alpha has already started.

[Ersula]

Still, he painted that in negative way, saying Retail is failing hard. Can't really judge it from this.

Which is a bit contrary to what this data implies. Interesting points:

• Shadowlands release was higher than Legion's peak
• Classic Expansion Eras underperform
• Based on how subs peak at point of release, this implies Season of Discovery & Hardcore are more popular than retail, but retail is still more popular than normal/expansion classic

It sounds like people just like new content in general. Retail & Classic by their very nature are not inherently superior.

[Dracullus]

Most funny thing I gathered is that praised Legion support was not as great as people think it was.

Graph doesn't have numbers, but it's pretty easy to guess based on information we know:

1) SL launch was best one in 10 years - so it's 12 million.
2) Tom Chilton slipped Legion launch numbers - 10 million.
3) WoD rock bottom was 5 million (last 2 quarter reports in 2015 showed that number stabilized on that figure), WoD confirmed launch was 10 million, so it's pretty obvious very similar rock bottoms for Legion/BfA/SL are 5 million too.

Still, he painted that in negative way, saying Retail is failing hard. Can't really judge it from this.

For sure we can see 2019 Classic and SoD were huge boost (although Q4 2023 may be combined SoD, Hardcore, 9.2 and Metzen revealing 'back to roots' saga).

Also, although SL followed typical expac pattern, it's clear many people didn't trust Blizzard to buy DF. EDIT: After some thought, I take it back, looks like Legion->BfA and SL->DF is pretty similar.

[justwatching]

Which is a bit contrary to what this data implies. Interesting points:

• Shadowlands release was higher than Legion's peak
• Classic Expansion Eras underperform
• Based on how subs peak at point of release, this implies Season of Discovery & Hardcore are more popular than retail, but retail is still more popular than normal/expansion classic

I dont think you can easily claim that Classic Era expansions underperform because all the chart indicates is that the losses from SL offset their gain. That could be an indication of expansions underperforming but what I think is more likely is that SL's damage was so severe it offset the gains.

Again you'd need broken down numbers and judge individual trends to really draw conclusions. The only thing one can really say is that retail by itself would probably never be able to reach the Legion level again. So I dont think Bellular is that off base in this case.

[Ersula]

I dont think you can easily claim that Classic Era expansions underperform because all the chart indicates is that the losses from SL offset their gain. I dont think thats an indication of expansions underperforming(even though they obviously did less than Vanilla) but that SL did a frankly insane amount of damage.

The graph still shows a total lack of spike in Wrath & BC releases. Considering subs are gained in spiking patterns but sub losses are more gradual, if it really was just "offsetting their gain" there would still be an upturn, which isn't there. Maybe Wrath's gain offset the shadowlands content drought but BC definitively underperformed, contrary to its hype.

[justwatching]

The graph still shows a total lack of spike in Wrath & BC releases. Considering subs are gained in spiking patterns but sub losses are more gradual, if it really was just "offsetting their gain" there would still be an upturn, which isn't there. Maybe Wrath's gain offset the shadowlands content drought but BC definitively underperformed, contrary to its hype.

I mean we can compare this to WCL Data from the respective launches and looking at that I'd agree that TBC under performed a bit but it also launched right at the point when subscriber losses were probably the highest they've ever experienced. Wrath spiked higher than even Vanilla ever did now granted that includes alts etc. but even if we adjust for that Wrath did extremely well and is probably responsible for most of the uptick before DF launch.

[Cheezits]

I think a lot of people forget how divisive and unliked the Tomb of Sargeras patch was. It may very well have killed the expansion more or less, if those numbers are right. Even if Argus was well received, a lot of people may have left before that.

[Reive]

the last spike is not just sod, but a combination of sod and 10.2, both released in november. remember that s3 is outperforming s1 when it comes to raid and m+ partecipation

also, if this graph is true, it show how huge was shadowlands at launch and how damaging for the game patch 9.1 and the lawsuit were

[Varodoc]

I think a lot of SL apologists forget that SL coincided with the Covid Lockdown era, when a majority of Millennials/Zillennials/Zoomers were at home all day long because of smart working or online classes.

No shit SL performed better than every other expansion at Launch. I literally had nothing else to do in that period but stay at home and play WoW.

[Ersula]

I think a lot of SL apologists forget that SL coincided with the Covid Lockdown era, when a majority of Millennials/Zillennials/Zoomers were at home all day long because of smart working or online classes.

No shit SL performed better than every other expansion at Launch. I literally had nothing else to do in that period but stay at home and play WoW.

I also remember a lot of people saying I was deluded for saying WoW currently had more than 6 million subscribers, with some people on this forum insisting it was currently >1 million, so I guess it's Ls all over.

It appears the same way Everquest has about 6000 ride-or-die fanbase that it'll never drop below, WoW has 5 mill ride-or-dies, as the game has never dipped below that number.

[Cheezits]

the last spike is not just sod, but a combination of sod and 10.2, both released in november. remember that s3 is outperforming s1 when it comes to raid and m+ partecipation

also, if this graph is true, it show how huge was shadowlands at launch and how damaging for the game patch 9.1 and the lawsuit were

Which explains why 9.1.5 was a hail mary that not only turned the game around but was literally "we're sorry, we listen now"

[Ersula]

Which explains why 9.1.5 was a hail mary that not only turned the game around but was literally "we're sorry, we listen now"

It doesn't feel that way when 2024 is not looking good. They went right back to being opaque. The pre-10.2 era looks like a completely different game than the post-10.2 era.

I think the Alpha will turn this around but I hope their takeaway from this whole secret patch thing is that it might ramp up the hype but it also ramps up the disappointment.

[Cheezits]

It doesn't feel that way when 2024 is not looking good. They went right back to being opaque. The pre-10.2 era looks like a completely different game than the post-10.2 era.

They didn't tell you what was in each patch back then, what do you mean? Gilneas being half baked four quests doesn't mean things have changed, it means they didn't do a good job with one facet of a patch.

Plunderstorm was a one off, otherwise they have told us exactly what will be in each patch until launch.

[Ersula]

They didn't tell you what was in each patch back then, what do you mean? Gilneas being half baked four quests doesn't mean things have changed, it means they didn't do a good job with one facet of a patch.

Plunderstorm was a one off, otherwise they have told us exactly what will be in each patch until launch.

Gilneas was also encrypted. Increasing the disappointment. And it doesn't help if 10.2.5 is teeny tiny & 10.1.5 was supermassive in terms of content.

[Darkarath]

Are those charts real? If they are, holy cow WoW will never die. It is still a true Titan in the gaming industry.

BTW won my first Plunderstorm match. I feel that balance changes were spot on. Still loving it.