1. #11361
    Early october 10.2 is entirely possible.
    It would be the same timespan as 10.0 (28 nov 2022) - 10.1 (2 may 2023).
    That could put a potential 10.3 somewhere early-mid march.
    Then the fated season could start anywhere mid-late september, which means there is still a tiny bit of room for a short fated season until the next expansion releases. Fated season could also be part of pre-patch 11.0. Expansion could then also release in early 2025.

    The other scenario could be no 10.3, but in that case I would assume: fated season early-mid march, which will be a shorter season like S4 was in SL. around 4,5-5 months. And then 11.0 releasing somewhere in august 2024.

    Either way: Too many variables to predict 10.3/no 10.3 very well. It depends on the next expansion release too. Since it is 20th anniversary, it could be bigger and we could be looking at option one. On the other hand: 10th anniversary got us WoD, so it could just be another "new island" expansion that would release summer next year.

    I've never been this clueless on what the fck to predict is going to happen and it's honestly a lot more exciting.
    Last edited by micwini; 2023-08-08 at 08:40 AM.
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  2. #11362
    Quote Originally Posted by micwini View Post
    Early october 10.2 is entirely possible.
    It would be the same timespan as 10.0 (28 nov 2022) - 10.1 (2 may 2023).
    That could put a potential 10.3 somewhere early-mid march.
    Then the fated season could start anywhere mid-late september, which means there is still a tiny bit of room for a short fated season until the next expansion releases. Fated season could also be part of pre-patch 11.0. Expansion could then also release in early 2025.

    The other scenario could be no 10.3, but in that case I would assume: fated season early-mid march, which will be a shorter season like S4 was in SL. around 4,5-5 months. And then 11.0 releasing somewhere in august 2024.

    Either way: Too many variables to predict 10.3/no 10.3 very well. It depends on the next expansion release too. Since it is 20th anniversary, it could be bigger and we could be looking at option one. On the other hand: 10th anniversary got us WoD, so it could just be another "new island" expansion that would release summer next year.

    I've never been this clueless on what the fck to predict is going to happen and it's honestly a lot more exciting.
    Why would you expect the Fated season to start so late though? Isn't it more likely that the Fated season will begin only a few months into the last patch as a catch up mechanism?
    Doesn't even have to include the newest raid, it could just be the first three.
    The world revamp dream will never die!

  3. #11363
    Quote Originally Posted by Sondrelk View Post
    Why would you expect the Fated season to start so late though? Isn't it more likely that the Fated season will begin only a few months into the last patch as a catch up mechanism?
    Doesn't even have to include the newest raid, it could just be the first three.
    For the first option I mentioned, I'm also assuming the expansion could release early 2025, as opposed to the fairly standard august-december we've been seeing. I would be baffled if they followed this super tight release schedule for a year and then suddenly stopped releasing content and put a 5-6 month long rehash season at the end of the expansion.
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  4. #11364
    Quote Originally Posted by Hitei View Post
    It's a roadmap for this year. Even if there was a 10.3, given that 10.2 is going to be mid fall, 10.3 wouldn't be until like April/May of next year.
    Honestly, 10.2.5 being in 2023 doesn't seem improbable. We should get a new roadmap at Blizzcon and it could have 10.2.5 in December.

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    Quote Originally Posted by micwini View Post
    For the first option I mentioned, I'm also assuming the expansion could release early 2025, as opposed to the fairly standard august-december we've been seeing. I would be baffled if they followed this super tight release schedule for a year and then suddenly stopped releasing content and put a 5-6 month long rehash season at the end of the expansion.
    I would think they'd do their best to release soon after the big anniversary.

    And I expect 10.2 very early. 10.1.7 has no content; the dreamsurges are the same rehashed invasion shit we've had forever. Give it 4 week for a full rotation through the zones and that's enough. I assume both Dream Surges and Time Rifts will keep happening forever, just at a slower pace like the Elemental Storms.
    Last edited by Nymrohd; 2023-08-08 at 08:50 AM.

  5. #11365
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    Honestly, 10.2.5 being in 2023 doesn't seem improbable. We should get a new roadmap at Blizzcon and it could have 10.2.5 in December.

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    I would think they'd do their best to release soon after the big anniversary.
    If they want to meet that target, I would assume they would do a 10.3 and then maybe not a fated patch or a very short one. Releasing november/december 2023, would either make the fated season too long without a 10.3 or make the fated season very short with a 10.3. I think the latter is more likely to happen in that case. They could always come out and say: "Fated season made sense in Shadowlands to bridge the gap between SL and DF, but this time around it isn't needed" or something like that. I think fated season was a great solution to the SL content drought, but I don't think it's something they should plan for if content cadence is good.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    Honestly, 10.2.5 being in 2023 doesn't seem improbable. We should get a new roadmap at Blizzcon and it could have 10.2.5 in December.

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    I would think they'd do their best to release soon after the big anniversary.

    And I expect 10.2 very early. 10.1.7 has no content; the dreamsurges are the same rehashed invasion shit we've had forever. Give it 4 week for a full rotation through the zones and that's enough. I assume both Dream Surges and Time Rifts will keep happening forever, just at a slower pace like the Elemental Storms.
    10.0.7 went live 21-03 and 10.1 on 02-05, that is like 6 weeks. I expect 10.1.7 to be around the same length, which would also put 10.2 at 17 october
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  6. #11366
    Quote Originally Posted by micwini View Post
    10.0.7 went live 21-03 and 10.1 on 02-05, that is like 6 weeks. I expect 10.1.7 to be around the same length, which would also put 10.2 at 17 october
    I'd say we'll have a better idea of how long 10.1.7 will be when we get 10.2 on PTR. Which I assume will be soon since they went to the trouble of giving 10.1.7 a release date. Has there been a vendor built for 10.2 yet? I cannot imagine a major patch not spending at least 7-8 weeks on PTR after all. If there is a vendor built for 10.2 this week, we will see it in the PTR by the last tenday of August and we will be on track for it release mid October, in time for the race to be done just before Blizzcon.
    Last edited by Nymrohd; 2023-08-08 at 09:09 AM.

  7. #11367
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    I'd say we'll have a better idea of how long 10.1.7 will be when we get 10.2 on PTR. Which I assume will be soon since they went to the trouble of giving 10.1.7 a release date. Has there been a vendor built for 10.2 yet? I cannot imagine a major patch not spending at least 7-8 weeks on PTR after all. If there is a vendor built for 10.2 this week, we will see it in the PTR by the last tenday of August and we will be on track for it release mid October, in time for the race to be done just before Blizzcon.
    iirc 10.1 was announced 2 weeks before 10.0.7 release. So if they would follow the exact same schedule, then 10.2 would be announced somewhere around 22-23 august.
    I will not reply to posts that are non-constructive or contain flaming and/or trolling.

  8. #11368
    Quote Originally Posted by Cosmicpreds View Post


    Why does this guy still think the Azewrath stuff contradicted the 1 Legion shit???

    Did the Illidan novel not make any of this shit clear???
    Soridormi says this: "Demons corrupt this realm to its core. Sargeras saw his crusade of annihilation through to the end."

    I guess that you could argue that Sargeras conquer this universe in the past and now he is imprisoned with the Titans. But if indeed the Legion conquered a full universe, there is just no way in which any force of our universe could face them. They would have unlimited resources and troops, unparallaled technology...

    One Legion across the multiverse is just a really stupid idea IMO and I hope that Blizzard retcon the shit out of it.
    Do not take life too seriously. You will never get out of it alive.


  9. #11369
    Quote Originally Posted by Woggmer View Post
    It's literally been more than 10 years since the events of the Cataclysm. The only zones that got an update were Darkshore and Arathi Highlands, they could've done more but it was having an adverse effect on the rest of the zones neighboring them. (I'm not sure on Darkshore, but when Arathi was updated.. the river in Hillsbrad lost all the water texture. You could still go in and you'd be swimming, but there was no water "surface".)

    The issue with stuff like Cata and BFA is that they are capable of revamping old zones, but (and I cannot stress this enough) THEY NEED TO COMMIT TO IT Revamping the old zones AS new zones.. Not like with Cata where they just added 5 (technically 7 because Vashj'ir is actually 3 zones that make up one bigger zone.) or like with BFA where they only updated the zones specifically for Warfronts. (We don't need to discuss the failures of that, but there were plans for more Warfronts.)

    And even if they can't do a full revamp, I wouldn't mind if it was just them adding new content and stories to the old world itself just to revitalize the old world and re-introduce people to those old zones and give a reason for people to play a race because they found them interesting, and not just because of their racial abilities that can be used for end-game content.
    Again, I'm not disagreeing with you on the necessity of a revamp. But I disagree with you when it comes to your other assessment for the old zones. They're irrelevant for retail. That's sad, as Eastern Kingdoms and Kalimdor are basically the heart and sould of this game, but they're old, outdated and not worth the effort needed to revamp them up to date.

    This really is a cost vs. effort thing and the effort will never be worth the cost in this case. It's easier to create an expansion with 4 or 5 initial zones for $40 than to revamp a multiple of those zones for the same price. I would love more based stories in old zones, something like Guild Wars 2 is doing with its next expansion after they finished their 10 year long story arc, but for retail WoW it's just not the approach they wanna go. It always needs to be bigger, badder and - in the future - more otherworldy / cosmic. I fear the time when we completely abandon Azeroth and travel through space and time for a Void expansion or whatever - but that's the imminent future for this game while the old world will just be left behind.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkarath View Post
    We will obviously get 10.2.5 and 10.2.7 and I expect them to be similar in quality to the previous 10.X.5 and 10.X.7 patches.

    Even so, I just hate expansions with two big patches(WoD and SL...). If you cannot develop an expansion story through three big patches maybe you should have not done such an expansion.

    I am aware that if 10.2.7 is the last patch of DF we would probably have by then more or at least the same amount of content of any other expansion, but I would still feel scammed.

    I might give it a pass if 11.0 truly changes WoW and its subscription model with it. It is really complicated for new players to get in the game and the current model is not helping.
    I mean who expected Dragonflight to be so rich on story and world building and to have three major patches? If they cut the raid that's not very relevant for the main story of the expansion they can go forward with this two major patch cycle which is lazy, but... it would just fit Blizzard's philosophy at this point. And it might not even be for the worse of the game overall if the narrative and storytelling gets better (which in case of Shadowlands and Dragonflight - as of now - did not happen).
    MAGA - Make Alliance Great Again

  10. #11370
    Quote Originally Posted by Worldshaper View Post
    The Launch Cycle

    10.0.0 - Prologue - No particular colour.
    10.0.2 - Main Patch - No particular colour.
    10.0.5 - Epilogue - No particular colour.

    The First Patch Cycle

    10.0.7 - Prologue - Black flight build-up.
    10.1.0 - Main Patch - Black flight finale + Blue flight quests.
    10.1.5 - Epilogue - Bronze flight adventure.

    The Second Patch Cycle

    10.1.7 - Prologue - Green flight build-up.
    10.2.0 - Main Patch - Green flight finale + Red flight quests.
    10.2.5 - Epilogue - Sixth flight adventure.

    The Third Patch Cycle

    10.2.7 - Prologue...
    10.3.0 - Main Patch...
    10.3.5 - Epilogue...

    I don't know... this could work if 10.3 is an exciting story about Void, Keepers, and a world revamp maybe. But it does seem a little unnecessary based on the story we have now. 10.1.7 has a Tyr quest chain so that while deal might be resolved by the time 10.2 is over.
    By the way, where that idea of 6th flight ever happening came from? With plot of green and red still to be resolved in this expansion, and most probably greens being the central-piece of 10.2, what good would it do to the story to introduce and develop an entire new faction of flights? Beside that, we still have all the Tyr and titan related stuff to be delivered. There's Fyrakk, Vyranoth and obviously Iridikron we have to deal with one way or another. I hardly see any point of Iridikron surviving this expansion. And after 10.1 and 10.1.5, we know that there's also a lot of void stuff to happen on the journey to 11.0.
    Not really sure whether packing this expansion with yet another major plotline is what the story needs. I'd say, that from 10.2 (if 10.3 is even about to happen) the story should be going straight to satisfying conclusion, rather than expanding on unexplored topics

  11. #11371
    Quote Originally Posted by Nibelheimy View Post
    I understand people's expectations are keeping low, but if 10.2 is the last patch and there's no more major patches for the rest of the expansion, I think it'd loose a lot of the goodwill blizzard are trying to keep up throughout this expansion with the patch cadence.

    They want people to say hey, the next expac looks massive. Dragonflights patch cadence was better than its ever been, it's time to come back.
    Dragonflight did not have the desired effect on WoW's playerbase. While the expansion built goodwill, it was not enough to bring back masses of players and it did not increase engagement or retention. It was a good step in the right direction, but it's the next expansion that will decide the fate of WoW in that regard, e.g. the next expansion needs to be massive and pretty much outstanding in the style of a Legion-sized rejuvenation for the game. Dragonflight was more like Cataclysm in that regard, revamping old systems and getting them ready for your next iteration of the game.

    The excistence of 10.1.7 makes me believe that it's very unlikely we're getting 10.3. But it basically boils down to (+- some weeks):

    Likely scenario: 10.3 does not exist, Dragonflight ends with 10.2(.5/7)
    10.2 release in November
    10.2.5 release late January
    10.2.7 release late March / April
    11.x pre patch in July
    expansion launch in August

    Unlikely scenario: 10.3 does exist
    10.2 release in October
    10.2.5 release December (unlikely) or mid January
    10.3 release in mid / late March
    10.3.5 release in June
    11.x pre patch in September / October
    expansion launch in November for the anniversary

    I expect them to go back to August releases for WoW expansions although 11.0 launching in November would make sense for the 20th anniversary.

    The next expansion being revealed at Blizzcon while we don't know about 10.3 yet (if it exists) would be a bit weird and they would need to do it in reverse, first talk about 10.3 (maybe week(s) before Blizzcon) and then the expansion. I know we had this discussion multiple times, but everything in this scenario feels crammed. They had enough time to space it ouf, yet they decided not to? I think Blizzard knows better.
    Last edited by Nyel; 2023-08-08 at 10:44 AM.
    MAGA - Make Alliance Great Again

  12. #11372
    I think they will just show the new roadmap and then announce the new expansion.

  13. #11373
    Quote Originally Posted by Zebir95 View Post
    I think they will just show the new roadmap and then announce the new expansion.
    This. The new roadmap, might also very well mention the new expansion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nyel View Post
    Dragonflight did not have the desired effect on WoW's playerbase. While the expansion built goodwill, it was not enough to bring back masses of players and it did not increase engagement or retention. It was a good step in the right direction, but it's the next expansion that will decide the fate of WoW in that regard, e.g. the next expansion needs to be massive and pretty much outstanding in the style of a Legion-sized rejuvenation for the game. Dragonflight was more like Cataclysm in that regard, revamping old systems and getting them ready for your next iteration of the game.

    The excistence of 10.1.7 makes me believe that it's very unlikely we're getting 10.3. But it basically boils down to (+- some weeks):

    Likely scenario: 10.3 does not exist, Dragonflight ends with 10.2(.5/7)
    10.2 release in November
    10.2.5 release late January
    10.2.7 release late March / April
    11.x pre patch in July
    expansion launch in August

    Unlikely scenario: 10.3 does exist
    10.2 release in October
    10.2.5 release December (unlikely) or mid January
    10.3 release in mid / late March
    10.3.5 release in June
    11.x pre patch in September / October
    expansion launch in November for the anniversary

    I expect them to go back to August releases for WoW expansions although 11.0 launching in November would make sense for the 20th anniversary.

    The next expansion being revealed at Blizzcon while we don't know about 10.3 yet (if it exists) would be a bit weird and they would need to do it in reverse, first talk about 10.3 (maybe week(s) before Blizzcon) and then the expansion. I know we had this discussion multiple times, but everything in this scenario feels crammed. They had enough time to space it ouf, yet they decided not to? I think Blizzard knows better.
    Can you provide source for "While the expansion built goodwill, it was not enough to bring back masses of players and it did not increase engagement or retention."?
    I will not reply to posts that are non-constructive or contain flaming and/or trolling.

  14. #11374
    Quote Originally Posted by micwini View Post
    Can you provide source for "While the expansion built goodwill, it was not enough to bring back masses of players and it did not increase engagement or retention."?
    Basically all of Blizzard's quarterly results since the release of Dragonflight.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zebir95 View Post
    I think they will just show the new roadmap and then announce the new expansion.
    I think they'll do this at Blizzcon. Announce the expansion and then show the ongoing roadmap for WoW in 2023. 10.2.5 will have a set release date already, if there's 10.2.7 it will be under the "Spring" or "Summer" section and the expansion (plus pre patch) most likely will either be under "Summer" or "Fall".
    MAGA - Make Alliance Great Again

  15. #11375
    Quote Originally Posted by Nyel View Post
    Basically all of Blizzard's quarterly results since the release of Dragonflight.
    except their quarter calls literaly say retention is higher...
    maybe read things before trying to use them as source?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nyel View Post
    Likely scenario: 10.3 does not exist
    Unlikely scenario: 10.3 does exist
    what exactly makes these scenarios "likely" and "unlikely" other than YOU saying so?
    hell actualy the "time table" you put in makes the 10.3 existence MORE likely, expansion in august when people have vacations is very unlikely...

  16. #11376
    Quote Originally Posted by Lolites View Post
    except their quarter calls literaly say retention is higher...
    maybe read things before trying to use them as source?
    It seems you are correct:
    Q4 2022: https://www.mmo-champion.com/content/11226-Activision-Blizzard-Q4-2022-Earnings-Results
    "World of Warcraft delivered significant year-over-year growth in reach, engagement and net bookings in the fourth quarter following the September release of Wrath of the Lich King Classic and the November launch of Dragonflight"

    Q1 2023: https://www.mmo-champion.com/content...rnings-Results
    "Subscriber retention in the West is higher than at the equivalent stage of recent Modern expansions."

    Q2 2023: https://www.wowhead.com/news/activis...ookings-334163
    "The World of Warcraft® team is delivering more content faster than ever before following the November release of the Dragonflight™ expansion for the Modern game, and subscriber retention in the West remains higher than at the equivalent stage of recent Modern expansions."

    Almost the exact same statement for the past 2 quarters. Sales initially were low, but that is understandable after Shadowlands
    Last edited by micwini; 2023-08-08 at 11:59 AM.
    I will not reply to posts that are non-constructive or contain flaming and/or trolling.

  17. #11377
    Quote Originally Posted by micwini View Post
    Almost the exact same statement for the past 2 quarters. Sales initially were low, but that is understandable after Shadowlands
    neither of which is surprising, little change ingame warants little change in statements, and as for initial sales, yeah, SL really didnt get them much goodwill...

  18. #11378
    Quote Originally Posted by Lolites View Post
    neither of which is surprising, little change ingame warants little change in statements, and as for initial sales, yeah, SL really didnt get them much goodwill...
    I would really like to know how much DF sold.

    SL was the biggest success in history until Cyberpunk 2077 came. Which is nuts. An almost 20 years old MMO subscription game sold 3'7 millions units within the first 24 hours of its release. After BfA. It is just ridiculous. I know that COVID helped a lot but even so, is crazy.

    How many of those 3'7 millions (which for sure were many many more while SL was live) still remain? I am convinced that if a revamp happens Blizzard can break those numbers. It is another thing that they can keep the people playing, but they would sell millions. Anything that it is not a revamp does not have a chance of coming close to that.
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  19. #11379
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lolites View Post
    hell actualy the "time table" you put in makes the 10.3 existence MORE likely, expansion in august when people have vacations is very unlikely...
    I don't think release month matter that much, imo main reason SL sold better than average expansion on release was covid and shit ton of people staying in home. DF not repeating this success kinda proves that.

    And how August expac is unlikely when it happen THREE times in a row - 2016 Legion, 2018 BfA, 2019 Classic (not expansion, but shows Blizzard isn't waiting for Fall with potential popular WoW stuff).

    Imo expac just release earliest time it can be ready. Usually it's 2 years, sometimes it take longer (MoP->WoD, BfA->SL) and release month move forward, sometimes it's shorter (TBC->Wrath, WoD->Legion) and release move backward.

  20. #11380
    Quote Originally Posted by Darkarath View Post
    I would really like to know how much DF sold.

    SL was the biggest success in history until Cyberpunk 2077 came. Which is nuts. An almost 20 years old MMO subscription game sold 3'7 millions units within the first 24 hours of its release. After BfA. It is just ridiculous. I know that COVID helped a lot but even so, is crazy.

    How many of those 3'7 millions (which for sure were many many more while SL was live) still remain? I am convinced that if a revamp happens Blizzard can break those numbers. It is another thing that they can keep the people playing, but they would sell millions. Anything that it is not a revamp does not have a chance of coming close to that.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dracullus View Post
    I don't think release month matter that much, imo main reason SL sold better than average expansion on release was covid and shit ton of people staying in home. DF not repeating this success kinda proves that.

    And how August expac is unlikely when it happen THREE times in a row - 2016 Legion, 2018 BfA, 2019 Classic (not expansion, but shows Blizzard isn't waiting for Fall with potential popular WoW stuff).

    Imo expac just release earliest time it can be ready. Usually it's 2 years, sometimes it take longer (MoP->WoD, BfA->SL) and release month move forward, sometimes it's shorter (TBC->Wrath, WoD->Legion) and release move backward.
    The cinematic also had the Lich King in it. Sy what you will but I think marketing wise that was brilliant. Especially towards the people that played far in the past and those who don't follow the news on the game 24/7.
    August is indeed just as good of a candidate for a release month as any other month.

    I think its just so hard to predict a 10.3 because they could release 11.0 as early as august, but also as late as early 2025, which is a full major patch of difference in time. It really depends on the scope of the next expansion as well as if they have been able to keep up this content cadence. It is still unknown how much the good content cadence of DF has to do with abandoning SL. Just like Legion had a good cadence because they ditched WoD.
    Last edited by micwini; 2023-08-08 at 01:00 PM.
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