No Dragonflight numbers from Blizzard means??

[Osmeric]

dismissing them? never said that, but using them as if they are accurate is at best stupid, at worst purposeful dishonest...

See, here we have that sad binary thinking again. Something is either accurate or it is not. Accuracy is a fuzzy property, though. Something can be more or less accurate.

I contend the data we have, while not perfect, is good enough to draw useful (if also fuzzy) conclusions.

[Lolites]

Wowprogress’s numbers may not be accurate, but can anyone give a reason why the margin of error in those numbers have changed? In other words, if wowprogress is “roughly accurate” has their reporting methods became less accurate over time? Because even if their reporting is inaccurate, as long as their margin of error is consistent, over time it can show trends.

as for their methods, we dont know them so we cant tell if they are accurate, but they are useless to tell us sub count...
basicaly they can tell us that PROBABLY (bcs even authors say they are not accurate) less people raid, thats it... actualy, afaik they dont even consider all difficulties, so even that is not exactly correct...
as for API, im not expert but afaik its more difficult to get precise data now, which was kinda on purpose from blizz...if it affects wow progres i truly dont know, bcs their methodology is not public... but since they themself say their data are not accurate its kinda moot

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See, here we have that sad binary thinking again. Something is either accurate or it is not. Accuracy is a fuzzy property, though. Something can be more or less accurate.

i mean, when the source of the data itself claim they are not acurate you would have to be idiot to use them bcs they MIGHT BE acurate... but whatever helps you to sleep better...
even broken clock shows correct time twice a day, but you would be fool to use them to tell time bcs they MIGHT BE correct at the time...

I contend the data we have, while not perfect, is good enough to draw useful (if also fuzzy) conclusions.

you are incorrect about that, any conclusions drawn from incomplete and inacurate data is useless, bcs even IF it is true (which might happen, by pure coincidence) you have no way of telling if it actualy is accurate...
but i guess for doomsayers its enough, as they dont want truth, they want something to suggest THEY have truth

[Marleycat]

as for their methods, we dont know them so we cant tell if they are accurate, but they are useless to tell us sub count...
basicaly they can tell us that PROBABLY (bcs even authors say they are not accurate) less people raid, thats it... actualy, afaik they dont even consider all difficulties, so even that is not exactly correct...
as for API, im not expert but afaik its more difficult to get precise data now, which was kinda on purpose from blizz...if it affects wow progres i truly dont know, bcs their methodology is not public... but since they themself say their data are not accurate its kinda moot

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you are incorrect about that, any conclusions drawn from incomplete and inacurate data is useless, bcs even IF it is true (which might happen, by pure coincidence) you have no way of telling if it actualy is accurate...
but i guess for doomsayers its enough, as they dont want truth, they want something to suggest THEY have truth

There are 2 types of people in the world; Those that can extrapolate information from incomplete data,

[Lolites]

There are 2 types of people in the world; Those that can extrapolate information from incomplete data,

sure, sometimes you can extrapolate information from incomplete data
but not in every case, and if the data is incomplete and INACCURATE you might as well take a wild guess, it will be roughly as accurate...

we have data set, raiding participation, that we know is inacurate, by the admision of the very source, and we know its incomplete, bcs it doesnt even consider all difficulties, and which is subset of bigger data set - playercount, of which we know only that its bigger, and yet some people use the data for the very purpose of "extrapolating" the size of playerbase...
only idiot would think that could be in any way accurate, dont you agree? and if not ...well im sure you can extrapolate that

[Marleycat]

sure, sometimes you can extrapolate information from incomplete data
but not in every case, and if the data is incomplete and INACCURATE you might as well take a wild guess, it will be roughly as accurate...

we have data set, raiding participation, that we know is inacurate, by the admision of the very source, and we know its incomplete, bcs it doesnt even consider all difficulties, and which is subset of bigger data set - playercount, of which we know only that its bigger, and yet some people use the data for the very purpose of "extrapolating" the size of playerbase...
only idiot would think that could be in any way accurate, dont you agree? and if not ...well im sure you can extrapolate that

It was more a way to squeeze in a researcher joke, Im completely uninvested in this particular issue, sorry. I'm actually more interested in why you put " around the word extrapolate

[Lolites]

It was more a way to squeeze in a researcher joke, Im completely uninvested in this particular issue, sorry. I'm actually more interested in why you put " around the word extrapolate

bcs they dont extrapolate, they "extrapolate", as in "according to this fewer people raid, that means wow is DOOOOOOOOMED"
thats not actual extrapolation, thats just pretending they were right all along...

[Marleycat]

bcs they dont extrapolate, they "extrapolate", as in "according to this fewer people raid, that means wow is DOOOOOOOOMED"
thats not actual extrapolation, thats just pretending they were right all along...

Ah! yes from previous MMO threads I had already extrapolated, some might say "extrapolated", that the word Copium will be used too many times that noone will change their view, or anyone elses, that someone will be called a Nazi, someone will start a sentence with "I find it Hilarious..." while finding no humor in it at all. and someone will claim specialist knowledge in an area to supplement their point and a slightly lower but altogether real possibility that another person will cut and paste the dictionary definition of extrapolate

[BrokenRavens]

as for their methods, we dont know them so we cant tell if they are accurate, but they are useless to tell us sub count...
basicaly they can tell us that PROBABLY (bcs even authors say they are not accurate) less people raid, thats it... actualy, afaik they dont even consider all difficulties, so even that is not exactly correct...
as for API, im not expert but afaik its more difficult to get precise data now, which was kinda on purpose from blizz...if it affects wow progres i truly dont know, bcs their methodology is not public... but since they themself say their data are not accurate its kinda moot

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i mean, when the source of the data itself claim they are not acurate you would have to be idiot to use them bcs they MIGHT BE acurate... but whatever helps you to sleep better...
even broken clock shows correct time twice a day, but you would be fool to use them to tell time bcs they MIGHT BE correct at the time...



you are incorrect about that, any conclusions drawn from incomplete and inacurate data is useless, bcs even IF it is true (which might happen, by pure coincidence) you have no way of telling if it actualy is accurate...
but i guess for doomsayers its enough, as they dont want truth, they want something to suggest THEY have truth

It was my impression that the site did in fact track all difficulties above lfr. And that it showed a downward trend overtime in participation in all difficulties. (At least that was the impression I got from that infamous Bellular video.)

Now it is possible that the WoW population stayed the same and the players just moved to lfr. (Or people just gave up on any type of raiding all together.)

Or that tracking site is less accurate and is less accurate in the way of UNDER reporting completions (as opposed to being less accurate by way of OVER reporting completions for whatever reason.)

Or there is just less people playing.

[Osmeric]

you are incorrect about that, any conclusions drawn from incomplete and inacurate data is useless, bcs even IF it is true (which might happen, by pure coincidence) you have no way of telling if it actualy is accurate...
but i guess for doomsayers its enough, as they dont want truth, they want something to suggest THEY have truth

See, this is where you're wrong. Fuzzy information is not useless. We use this sort of information all the time. It's essential for making decisions under uncertainty. Business, finance, medicine, military, legal decisions... all involve reaching conclusions and making decisions from uncertain information.

What's going on here is you're using rejection of uncertainty as a defense mechanism. You're rejecting uncertain information pointing in a direction that you don't like so you don't have to feel the anxiety that accepting the uncertain, but distressing, conclusion would cause.

[MoanaLisa]

It's not really about player perception in that regard, journalism will do its part on practices like this. And Blizzard's reputation already is at its lowest, it can't basically sink any lower, yet they're chasing for new lows. This might not concern players, but it will not be ignored by investors. And as I said, the quarterly results might be... revealing.

Yes, it will be 100% ignored unless the deal with MSFT is terminated. If that happens I can guarantee that the discussion will not be about Blizzard's corporate culture.

Activision-Blizzard investors are not really any part of the picture any longer. They have their premium stock price locked in and if everyone were being honest the very last thing that any of them want is for the stock price to rise above the already pre-determined price per share that MSFT offered. Investors and their feelings are for the moment irrelevant. If we assume that things will get worked out with legalities and the rest (none of which have anything whatsoever to do with WoW) whatever goes on with WoW will be pretty much a non-issue in a corporation that regularly posts $50 billion + per quarter.

Until facts on the ground change, discussion about "investors"—most of which are institutional in nature—isn't a thing. Private investors in Blizzard are less than 20% of the shares and even they are more interested in where the money and dividend really lies: King and Call of Duty. WoW is no longer the 500-pound gorilla at ATVI and hasn't been since they acquired King.

[Kokolums]

It's not really about player perception in that regard, journalism will do its part on practices like this. And Blizzard's reputation already is at its lowest, it can't basically sink any lower.

Oh it can go lower. Sears ignored all the warning signs and just kept going their usual route. Company execs felt confident in what they were doing and laughed at people who said Amazon would destroy them. Obliterated to just 18 stores and a tiny web presence. Effectively dead. Blizz could add "out of business" or "failed so hard they got bought out" to their resume.

And it might not end there. Sometimes a company gets bought out, then in the next 2-5 years, the new owners loot the assets they desire, and then sell off the rest to some vulture capitalist who milks it for every penny they can get before throwing it in the trash. MS might keep wow, then sell off starcraft, healthstone and diablo to Apollo Global Management who then set up all the assets as cheap gatcha phone games and call it a day.

There was a time when AOL bought Time Warner. Then AOL collapsed and Yahoo! collapsed. Both were bought by Verizon who promised a huge social media webspace to compete with google. Then once they bought them, they quickly decided it was a failure and sold Yahoo and AOL to Apollo and washed their hands of it all. Now both companies are dying, no longer innovators, just waiting for the end.

[Lolites]

It was my impression that the site did in fact track all difficulties above lfr. And that it showed a downward trend overtime in participation in all difficulties. (At least that was the impression I got from that infamous Bellular video.)

afaik no site tracks LFR (which was once told by blizz is most played difficulty), and some sites only track progress per guild, not character/account

Now it is possible that the WoW population stayed the same and the players just moved to lfr. (Or people just gave up on any type of raiding all together.)

Or that tracking site is less accurate and is less accurate in the way of UNDER reporting completions (as opposed to being less accurate by way of OVER reporting completions for whatever reason.)

Or there is just less people playing.

and most likely combination of all of the above, and few more things on top of that... and we can be almost certain less people play, if for no other reason than bcs the game isalmost 20y old

and i dont really have issue with people checking the raiding participation and making the assumption about RAIDING, my issue starts when they try to pretend its in any way accurate indicator of player count, as if there is no possibility to avoid raiding in wow...
or to be more precise my issue is with people arguing that "fewer people raid, that can ONLY mean wow is DOOOOOOOOOOOOMED"

[Miffinat0r]

See, this is where you're wrong. Fuzzy information is not useless. We use this sort of information all the time. It's essential for making decisions under uncertainty. Business, finance, medicine, military, legal decisions... all involve reaching conclusions and making decisions from uncertain information.

I work in Health Insurance and the idea that fuzzy information is bad information is just hilarious to me. Lol. Actuaries literally play with hypotheticals of hypotheticals based on the fuzziest of trends. Literally the entire business world has this department called Marketing, and they operate on fuzzy information. Insurance companies apply Actuarial and Underwriting techniques which are based on trends and hypotheticals on risk evaluation.

Does the dude you responded to live in the real world?

[Dystemper]

I work in Health Insurance and the idea that fuzzy information is bad information is just hilarious to me. Lol. Actuaries literally play with hypotheticals of hypotheticals based on the fuzziest of trends. Literally the entire business world has this department called Marketing, and they operate on fuzzy information. Insurance companies apply Actuarial and Underwriting techniques which are based on trends and hypotheticals on risk evaluation.

Does the dude you responded to live in the real world?

Every field if science uses fuzzy information and values it. Paleontology, ASTRO physics , quantum theory, etc. Incomplete data is a cornerstone of science

[Soon-TM]

Here is a link to a related article that is not blocked.

https://www.kotaku.com.au/2023/01/bl...nds-like-hell/

Thanks for the non-blocked link. I'm old and nerd enough to remember that the "rank & jank" system worked wonders for Microsoft some time ago, didn't it? /s

[Relapses]

See, here we have that sad binary thinking again. Something is either accurate or it is not. Accuracy is a fuzzy property, though. Something can be more or less accurate.

I contend the data we have, while not perfect, is good enough to draw useful (if also fuzzy) conclusions.

I contend that as long as the developers have actual fucking data that relying on wrong, inaccurate data to draw conclusions which criticize the developers for acting on data which is intentionally never made public that we're incorrectly pitting the community against the developers in a way that doesn't provide any useful feedback and instead operates as yet another way for people to express dogshit opinions with the added level of smugness that imaginary numbers are backing up these dogshit opinions.

[Osmeric]

I contend that as long as the developers have actual fucking data that relying on wrong, inaccurate data to draw conclusions which criticize the developers for acting on data which is intentionally never made public that we're incorrectly pitting the community against the developers in a way that doesn't provide any useful feedback and instead operates as yet another way for people to express dogshit opinions with the added level of smugness that imaginary numbers are backing up these dogshit opinions.

This is obvious bullshit. It means that if the actual data is bad, the developers can (by your reasoning) shut down all debate on the state of the game. And that's an absurd thing to imply.

Clearly, you're trying to actually achieve that result, and are concocting a ridiculous rule to try to achieve it. Your nonsense is rejected.

[Relapses]

This is obvious bullshit. It means that if the actual data is bad, the developers can (by your reasoning) shut down all debate on the state of the game. And that's an absurd thing to imply.

I think that it's incredibly difficult for the developers to get relevant feedback from a community that openly accepts imaginary numbers as a factual basis of argumentation. This is bad for the game because instead of being able to empathize or understand why developers do what they do, players see that numbers went down and arrive at the extremely unique conclusion that Blizzard fucked up and must have done so in spite of the community's desires.

Clearly, you're trying to actually achieve that result, and are concocting a ridiculous rule to try to achieve it. Your nonsense is rejected.

It's not a rule. It's an appeal to the community not to accept bullshit at face value just because some balding dipshit who hocks ballhair trimmers on YouTube used a bunch of APIs to dazzle his audience of carefully cultivated ex-WoW player rageporn addicts.

[Triceron]

It's not a rule. It's an appeal to the community not to accept bullshit at face value just because some balding dipshit who hocks ballhair trimmers on YouTube used a bunch of APIs to dazzle his audience of carefully cultivated ex-WoW player rageporn addicts.

The community has no mandate to accept anything at face value, regardless of whether it's bullshit or completely valid. The community will judge regardless of any valid reason to do so. Validity is just an excuse to push opinions.

[Relapses]

The community has no mandate to accept anything at face value, regardless of whether it's bullshit or completely valid. The community will judge regardless of any valid reason to do so. Validity is just an excuse to push opinions.

When you have an audience of hundreds of thousands of people, there is an onus is on the author to at least be somewhat candid about the legitimacy of the data being provided. But when it's plainly obvious the person pushing these numbers isn't doing it for any auspicious reason on behalf of the game's community and is instead doing it because the videos are a license to print ad revenue you'll have to excuse me for being just a tad bit skeptical of the source. You'll also have to excuse me for framing any argument that uses these numbers as inherently flawed.