Activision Blizzard Q4 2022 Earnings Results

[Osmeric]

What do you think these people that have permanently left WoW are playing for an MMO?

Speaking personally (and assuming I'm permanently gone, which is a good bet absent unlikely changes from Blizzard): not playing MMOs at all.

[Chilela]

What this all says to me is the following:

-The silence regarding actual numbers for DF is deafening. While it's entirely possible it did as well as most xpacs have historically, I'm more inclined to believe it was a bit below even that. Certainly not total doomer mode "It totally flopped" levels of sales, but ones that likely would have been viewed negatively by investors if openly reported.
-The better retention rate is the "But actually..." spin for DF. This is also a number that's very much up to speculation, but I think just about everyone paying attention saw it coming. Will DF be in a better spot in terms of numbers than SL by the end of the xpac? Only time can tell. Definitely warrants keeping a sharp eye on what metrics are actually available to the viewing public, imperfect as they may be.
-Having both Retail and Classic get new releases in Q4 made the improved metrics listed sort of a "no duh" moment.
-OW2's launch surpassing OW1's launch in terms of player engagement isn't really surprising, nor is Blizz's earnings spike between it and WoW coming out, and DI still being relatively new.
-Their wording regarding DI's engagement comes off as stating "Player falloff has slowed to a crawl as of the holiday season". Good for the near-term stability of DI, but does raise an eyebrow to me regarding any falloff (or lack thereof) during the rest of Q4.

Overall, not really much in terms of huge surprises. To Blizz's credit, I think for DF, they were more concerned about retention than player expansion, and on that front, they seem to have succeeded comparatively well.

[Argorwal]

tbh, what did ppls expect after the SL fiasko?

when you loose half of your customer base, because your game is highly cost effective cheap shit, resulting in low quality, while being more interested in cash grab than in good game design, well, then for sure the next xpac will not sell well in the beginning.

ppls act like everyone that quitted cause of SL is back on track day1 when DF launches. jesus, that company gambled A LOT with the trust of their customers. and they heavily lost their trust. getting it back is a looong and hard task.

in short: the fact that SL sucked and Blizzard sucked in 2021+2022 directly results in low sales of the next xpac. they lost all trust of their customers. so what did ppls expect when DF launches?

All of the classic launches also had massive amounts of drop off a few months after launch.

Is it because they, and therefore WoW has always, sucked?

Is it expected that 18 year old games are supposed to get more popular with time?

[probert]

What this all says to me is the following:
Overall, not really much in terms of huge surprises. To Blizz's credit, I think for DF, they were more concerned about retention than player expansion, and on that front, they seem to have succeeded comparatively well.

best comment in this whole thread.

instead of a complete collapse of the brand, they leaned into player feedback and focused on stemming the atrophy.

MMOs are a habit, once you break the cycle many players move onto something else that replaces it. at least they're not losing players as fast now.

[Glorious Leader]

I mean on the official forums and twitter. People are complaining about down time but only the smallest of minorities have been complaining about the content and most of their threads are just people telling them to sod off.

If you ignore every complaint then yes it becomes a minority.

[varren]

So it's really over then, the one two punch of BFA and SL was too much for the game to fully recover. It was obvious DF was struggling given the silence on sales when they had been bragging about them for the last however many expansions.

[Glorious Leader]

best comment in this whole thread.

instead of a complete collapse of the brand, they leaned into player feedback and focused on stemming the atrophy.

MMOs are a habit, once you break the cycle many players move onto something else that replaces it. at least they're not losing players as fast now.

This is really damming with faint praise. It's saying they have completely bungled retention in the first place and now because theirs so few folks left they hit rock fucking bottom. Wow what a win. Leader in market share has collapsed but it won't be as bad now.

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tbh, what did ppls expect after the SL fiasko?

?

Replace SL with WoD and you see why this point is so awful. Stop blaming the previous expansion on this ones obvious fail. DF is bad and thats not the previous expansions fault.

[mbit2]

If they expected it to sell as well as SL after SL broke records (mostly due to it being released during lockdown) they had unreasonable expectations. That said it's still doing well because player retention is the best it has been in ages. It's also competing with Wrath Classic which released shortly before DF did, and a lot of people enjoy Wrath.

DF feels better but don't get hoodwinked by "high retention", this metric is useless by itself cause it's as you say - lockdown brought a lot of people to try&quit which lowers retention metric while bringing in more money. And you obviously would prefer more money over a higher retention metric.

[Relapses]

Sorry, but you need to brush up on your mindreading skills. They are clearly woefully inadequate.

This is just more of the same hyperbole and wailing of a white knight, exactly like the post I responded to. Please point to any post of mine that constitutes a "negativity circlejerk" or "jacking off to the idea of WoW dying". You won't be able to because I've never said anything remotely like that. You, nor any of the other white knights here, ever engage with what people are saying and instead constantly resort to strawmen you erect, just like you did here.

For some people the trajectory of the game is interesting and what suppositions can be gleaned from the data available interests them. You are clearly not interested in any of that, resorting to a constant stream of "YOU DON"T KNOW THE ACTUAL COMPLETE NUMBERS SO YOU CAN'T HAVE AN OPINION!!!", which is fallacious and ignorant on the face of it. And that's it, that's your schtick, insisting we can't even contemplate anything based on what evidence we have and insisting that anyone that does is "circlejerking to the death of WoW".

When you're ready to grow up and talk about what the numbers we have could or couldn't mean, then a discussion can be had. In the meanwhile there's little point in engaging with you since all your group ever wants to do is "NO U!!". WoW can be doing poorly and you can still fully enjoy it, y'know. I'm enjoying Dragonflight pretty well right now and still recognize that Blizzard has done some serious damage to the game over the years and feel the numbers and info we do have point that out pretty well. But that's like, my opinion, man.

Talk about numbers? What fucking numbers? Is this even on? Hello?

I'm poking fun at the people in this thread whose main personality trait is the fact that they hate WoW. It's boring. It's not entertaining. And it's infinitely fucking ironic that you guys are the ones who cry foul and ask for a safe space from dissenting opinions any time anybody dares to think in a way that doesn't jive with the hopelessly cynical and pointlessly negative groupthink pervasive in this very, very sorry excuse we have for a community.

[probert]

source on classic having anywhere near retail sub count? your ass as per usual with similar "facts"?

you're projecting.

there's a sizeable portion of players who are subscribed to play classic, and only classic. those boost the underlying numbers, whatever they are. (500k-1m likely).

those are subscriptions that are carrying *total* subscriptions for WoW, and we know that DF didn't meet previous peaks.

so it looks like this:

BFA + Vanilla Classic < Legion
SL + TBC Classic < BFA + Vanilla Classic
DF + Wrath Classic < SL + TBC Classic

Cata classic will be substantially less than Wrath classic, if it does come out. The next WoW expansion will need to stand on its own, and I doubt it will do as well as DF no matter what its content.

This is just another plateau in the long, slow decline of World of Warcraft. No king lives forever, it will be about 20 years by the time DF is done and no franchise aside from Pokemon, Super, Mario or Call of Duty have fared as well.

[Yakut]

You seriously think people lie for internet clout but wouldn't lie to keep their job or to defend bad decisions?

I think people arguing about data (literally the majority of this thread) that is mostly speculation is going to end poorly for everyone. Blizzard has to, by virtue of being a business, muddy the water a bit on this data because bad data is not necessarily good press. But, as is expected on forums, people take a small amount of data and extrapolate heavily - this thread is basically one of the most recent examples of that behavior.

I'm not saying Blizzard is doing amazing work. But, equally, I am also not saying they're doing terribly -- at least in so far as Dragonflight is concerned.

I am looking at the average price of a token. It works opposite of normal economic rules, but is internally consistent within the context of the game. When the price is in the 200k+ range, it has a low active membership. Prices were approximately 220-240k up until Season 4 SL started. They dropped again when more people came back for season 4, but it never got lower than about 175k. It popped right back up to 200k+ at the end of Season 4.

Prices are now signficantly lower. Usually in the 135-145 range. That tells me roughly about 25-30% more people are playing than they did in SL in Season 4. It's not amazing, but it, as mentioned earlier, is not terrible. In the vast majority of cases, the token prices are reflective of the subscriber base. When they are lower, a lot more people are playing. When they are higher, a lot fewer people are playing.

This is also supported by various group activities and its relative memberships. I have a spreadsheet tracking my guild's raid attendance and the values are roughly commensurate (e.g. inversely proportional) with the price of gold tokens, supporting my previous statement. Attendance for us is slowly sliding back down again and I imagine it will be another 3-4 weeks before we are unable to raid again until the next tier. But, what is of interest and note to me is that the downward slope on attendance is much less steep than SL. That tracks with Blizzard's QR saying retention is better. It is, by at least a month or two.

It took me some time to figure out how to do this in a way that MMO-C allows, but here's SL Season 4's attendance:

Once we dipped below 50%, we stopped raiding as it was untenable.

This is DF's season 1 attendance:

And, of course, once we dip below 50%, we will stop raiding as it is untenable.

But, equally, our progression is better this expansion than last. People are also enjoying the raids much more than either the Fated (which they liked a little better) or their original variations. How do I know this? I'm the raid leader and I ask people both publically and privately.

Mostly, the biggest complaint is not Dragonflight as an expansion but the fact melee is unusually punished much more this time than last expansion with a lot more instant deaths everywhere (raids and keys). But, the majority of our dps is ranged. So, obviously this isn't quite the death knell folks in this thread would have it be.

[Sensa1]

Talk about numbers? What fucking numbers? Is this even on? Hello?

I'm poking fun at the people in this thread whose main personality trait is the fact that they hate WoW. It's boring. It's not entertaining. And it's infinitely fucking ironic that you guys are the ones who cry foul and ask for a safe space from dissenting opinions any time anybody dares to think in a way that doesn't jive with the hopelessly cynical and pointlessly negative groupthink pervasive in this very, very sorry excuse we have for a community.

You're not poking fun...you're shamelessly bashing anything and anyone that contradicts your narrative trying to beat people into submission...it's classic internet bullying tactics...and on top of that...after going after everyone claiming they can't come to conclusions based on a variety of sources....now including Blizzard themselves....you have been making counter arguments based on even less evidence and a self-serving 10 year old Ghostcrawler quote...you're a hypocrite and a bully with nothing better to do with their time apparently...end of story.

Also, for the record, I don't hate WoW and have been playing since 2005 (though I exclusively play Classic now) and have stated that declining numbers are not the end of WoW as it can exist for a long time on its core subscribers...so once again you're proven wrong in your suppositions.

[Loveliest]

'' Activision Blizzard increased representation for those who identify as women or non-binary to 26% globally, as of the end of November, versus 24% a year earlier ''

why is this relevant in any way ? why would i care what gender is the game developer / producer ? can anyone enlighten a foreigner ?

You don't have to care. Not everything is specifically done to please you.

[Tiwack]

*Imo recently settled suit and the rest of the internal problems from growing and being acquired by a big corpo left a bigger negative impression on players who quit in the end than milquetoast expansion X I like to rant and whine about.*

[Kumorii]

I'm one of those that didn't get Dragonflight. Even if what I hear of it interests me.
I'm just burned out on WoW and Shadowlands is when I quit.

I think the low numbers are less about the expansion itself and more about the years leading up to it. Considering the retention is higher it seems like it's a better expansion, but I think players have lost interest in general.

[Glaziola]

You don't have to care. Not everything is specifically done to please you.

You are absolutely right. Its done to please those PRO ESG investors. Nobody else cares.

[qwerty123456]

Your response was so wildly off-topic I have a hard time believing you did. It reads like you read the first sentence then decided to let ChatGPT take the wheel for the rest.

I think there is a disconnect between what you think you are writing and what you are actually writing as I have repeatedly responded to everything in your posts while you just put your head in the sand and get upset. It might be helpful for you to reread over your posts before you post them. I'm just gonna stop responding since it feels like you need a win. Everything you say is 100% truth.

[Yakut]

I think there is a disconnect between what you think you are writing and what you are actually writing as I have repeatedly responded to everything in your posts while you just put your head in the sand and get upset. It might be helpful for you to reread over your posts before you post them. I'm just gonna stop responding since it feels like you need a win. Everything you say is 100% truth.

Ironically, you're both right. And, as importantly, you're both wrong. The Vorlons have a saying, "Understanding is a three-edged sword." You've got your side, Relapses' side, and the truth arguably is somewhere in-between. But, I rather expect this since people are taking polarized (i.e. diametrically opposite) positions. Of course it's not going to resolve to something everyone can agree on with that logic.

He's right, the majority of this and other threads has been an unjustifiably negative for the sake of negative spin on literally every aspect of the QR. You're right, he's occasionally, by his own admission, hypocritical. Does that knowledge change anything for or against the QR? Or does it further an off-topic animosity that doesn't really even need to exist?

[Relapses]

You're not poking fun...you're shamelessly bashing anything and anyone that contradicts your narrative trying to beat people into submission...it's classic internet bullying tactics...and on top of that...after going after everyone claiming they can't come to conclusions based on a variety of sources....now including Blizzard themselves....you have been making counter arguments based on even less evidence and a self-serving 10 year old Ghostcrawler quote...you're a hypocrite and a bully with nothing better to do with their time apparently...end of story.

Brother, you're approaching levels of irony that may cause a rift in the space-time continuum. Let's get this straight: I'm a bully because I dare to not buy into the cynical, bitter and mindless negativity pervasive in these threads? Because I dare to say, "Hey, DF sales aren't terrible because the last expansion sucked?" Because I have the ball-busting testicular fortitude to see a thread full of people who just want to shit all over something for no real reason other than farming validation from other miserable NPCs? That in the face of a completely unsourced, extremely dogshit take, I provide a reasonable alternative sourced by the one guy in the history of Blizzard's two decades on earth who has seen this video game's retention data and spoken publicly about it? Like, fuck man. I get it. The cognitive dissonance is strong. We already established earlier that you have some weird mental condition where you read my posts and see me saying things I've literally never said but... come on now. Sometimes a spade is a spade. There's a clear undercurrent of pessimism running rampant in these threads and you see me as a disruptor of that negativity. That makes me the bad guy. If you take such great offense to somebody simply asking people not to be hateful, miserable human beings, I shouldn't need to remind you that this forum has an ignore feature you're welcome to use.

Also, for the record, I don't hate WoW and have been playing since 2005 (though I exclusively play Classic now) and have stated that declining numbers are not the end of WoW as it can exist for a long time on its core subscribers...so once again you're proven wrong in your suppositions.

You can hate WoW and still play it. In fact, I'd surmise that's what a majority of people on this forum do. They buy a game they hate then they complain about buying a game they hate. It's really the only product I can think of where people spend money to support something they actively spend most of their time complaining is not worth their money. Then somebody like me comes in and says, "Hey, maybe don't do that?" and I'm the asshole. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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I think there is a disconnect between what you think you are writing and what you are actually writing as I have repeatedly responded to everything in your posts while you just put your head in the sand and get upset. It might be helpful for you to reread over your posts before you post them. I'm just gonna stop responding since it feels like you need a win. Everything you say is 100% truth.

It's not a fucking theory. That's the whole God damned point of the post that you completely missed. It's a different way of looking at the same fucking information. I'm saying instead of being bitter, cynical and miserable, maybe try to think about the way we handle discourse of the game. And instead of saying things which are obviously meant to validate a negative opinion, use critical thinking skills to help improve the game so that reports like this one aren't the new normal.

- - - Updated - - -

Ironically, you're both right. And, as importantly, you're both wrong. The Vorlons have a saying, "Understanding is a three-edged sword." You've got your side, Relapses' side, and the truth arguably is somewhere in-between. But, I rather expect this since people are taking polarized (i.e. diametrically opposite) positions. Of course it's not going to resolve to something everyone can agree on with that logic.

He's right, the majority of this and other threads has been an unjustifiably negative for the sake of negative spin on literally every aspect of the QR. You're right, he's occasionally, by his own admission, hypocritical. Does that knowledge change anything for or against the QR? Or does it further an off-topic animosity that doesn't really even need to exist?

I'm not arguing from a diametrically opposed end of the spectrum. If I were in here saying that this is actually great news and we need to read between the lines, I'd understand that perspective. But I'm not doing that. I'm simply asking people not to be hopelessly cynical. I'm asking for people to use their passion for hating this game to turn it into something meaningful instead of another 50+ page repository of NPCs Ctrl C + Ctrl V'ing the same vaguely negative opinion about the state of the video game.

[Doombringer]

You can hate WoW and still play it. In fact, I'd surmise that's what a majority of people on this forum do. They buy a game they hate then they complain about buying a game they hate. It's really the only product I can think of where people spend money to support something they actively spend most of their time complaining is not worth their money. Then somebody like me comes in and says, "Hey, maybe don't do that?" and I'm the asshole. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

People need to unsub and even uninstall if the game pisses them off. I unsubbed when Blizzard displayed their shit behavior. That's a constant sub from 2004 uninterrupted until the shit hit the fan. I even stayed subbed for Shadowlands despite hardly playing after the first few months.

But, the changes they made as a company helped bring me back. The changes they made to Dragonflight nudged me the rest of the way and it's what's keeping me. I haven't been this happy with the game in a long while... but if anyone is UNHAPPY, then just take a break. Say your piece, ideally to Blizzard in an exit form and not on here as it would probably get lost/buried, and don't marinate in your revulsion over a product you can opt out of.