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# Thread: Innovation in MMOs, WoW and Ghostcrawler's perspective on it

1. Originally Posted by Biomega
It would be, over large enough data sets.

I don't believe your numbers. But if they were accurate, there'd be something to investigate. But they're not. You have nothing except stories. Come back when you have data.
Binomial distribution - is exactly what shows chance of deviation from average. If we have n trials, we have 2^n combinations of outcomes. Each outcome has x number of successes. If k outcomes have x number of successes, then chance to have outcome with exactly x successes - is k/2^n. Binomial distribution gives exactly this value. You can use any online calculator to get this value.

Again. Chance to get 1 item of 16 (actually more, but it makes things only better, not worse) - should be 1/16 in case of fair equal chances for all items. Chance to get specific duplicate 1/16*1/16, i.e. 1/256. Two duplicates in a row - 1/4096. Three - 1/65536. Etc. But there are 16 ways to get any duplicate, so chance to get any duplicate is 16 time bigger. I.e. 1/16, 1/256, etc. Let's say, we have belts. It's specific duplicate. Chance to get is - 1/256. So, you can use p=0.0078125 x=0 and then change n=1, 2, 3 etc and see, how chances to get 0, 1, 2, 3, etc. successes change. As you can see, for small number of trials - number of successes can barely be anything but 0.

Binomial distribution - is exactly what shows chance of deviation from average.
I don't disbelieve the MATH.

I don't believe you that you're hitting these uber remote chances "every day for weeks and months".

I know how the math works. I'm not sure you do, but I'm entirely willing to believe it. But I DO. NOT. believe the accuracy of your "data'.

3. Originally Posted by Biomega
I don't disbelieve the MATH.

I don't believe you that you're hitting these uber remote chances "every day for weeks and months".

I know how the math works. I'm not sure you do, but I'm entirely willing to believe it. But I DO. NOT. believe the accuracy of your "data'.
Believe me or not, but it's fact. I have 2x252 items (chest and ring) and legendary belt. Yesterday ZM reward was chest and today's is TADAM

And also. Binomial distribution is so great, because it allows you to calculate variance, that is npq. I.e. HIGHER VARIANCE = MORE TRIALS. It's good, because it allows us to determine, if Wow's RNG fits into this variance or not in order to confirm, that it's not real RNG. This is exact thing, I constantly talk about. Some people just don't understand, that RNG isn't "anything can happen". RNG is still some sort of law. Some parameters, like variance, should still fit into some limits. For example, Var(x)=npq means, that, yeah, weird things can happen, but only very rarely, because n should be high enough for np(1±(1-p)) to reach your desired x value, as both high and low p values mean lower variance. If they happen all the time - it's pattern, that isn't RNG.

Please note! I don't try to say, that anything outside of variance is invalid. But 95% of trials should fit into variance. Only 5% (2.5% on each side) can lay outside of it. And overall further x from expected value - lower is chance for it to happen.

4. Originally Posted by Biomega
"Once, maybe twice" is a pretty ridiculous statement to make here, to jump to a "hidden algorithm" immediately is downright ludicrous.
It's not even "hidden algorithm", they actually claim there's a hidden artificial intelligence in this game that is designed solely to somehow detect what piece of gear you are specifically grinding for and then drastically lower its drop rate for you, specifically.

Do you HAVE robust statistical data?
He doesn't. They don't have any real data, just "feelings". They "feel" they shouldn't get duplicates. They also want to get better rewards every time they do content. Like, no joke.

- - - Updated - - -

Believe me or not, but it's fact. I have 2x252 items (chest and ring) and legendary belt. Yesterday ZM reward was chest and today's is TADAM
Is that image for ants supposed to prove anything?

5. Originally Posted by Ielenia
Is that image for ants supposed to prove anything?
I think the more worrying concern here is that this guy is apparently still farming last expansion's content for upgrades.

Believe me or not, but it's fact.
Then prove it. Facts require evidence. You don't have any? You don't have a fact.

7. Originally Posted by Relapses
I think the more worrying concern here is that this guy is apparently still farming last expansion's content for upgrades.

What is way past 'worrying' and has reached high levels of 'amusing' is that they seemingly reached a level of self-delusion that they believe Blizzard has added an "anti-player AI loot system" designed to detect the specific item you're grinding for, and severely decrease the item drop rate in real time.

8. Originally Posted by Ielenia

What is way past 'worrying' and has reached high levels of 'amusing' is that they seemingly reached a level of self-delusion that they believe Blizzard has added an "anti-player AI loot system" designed to detect the specific item you're grinding for, and severely decrease the item drop rate in real time.
--- snip ---

I guess I missed that part. Man, WoW players will do anything except face the obvious.

9. Originally Posted by Ielenia

What is way past 'worrying' and has reached high levels of 'amusing' is that they seemingly reached a level of self-delusion that they believe Blizzard has added an "anti-player AI loot system" designed to detect the specific item you're grinding for, and severely decrease the item drop rate in real time.
It's actually easy to lower drop rate for individual player. Like in case of this mount, that has unlimited amount of attempts per day. It's much harder to do it, when rewards are shared between players, as in case of WQs and dailies. That's where true AI is needed.

It's actually easy to lower drop rate for individual player.
No, it's not "easy". Because first you need to correctly detect the specific player, and then detect the specific item they're going after. This is easy to do on single-player games, but not on MMOs.

Like in case of this mount, that has unlimited amount of attempts per day.
You mean the mount that had a 1%-ish drop rate from Cataclysm launch?

That's where true AI is needed.
There is no "AI loot against players".

11. Never understand why people gobble everything up that ghostcrawler says as if it is an absolute truth.

Sure he has a lot of opinions and gives good insight in the industry... But they are still only that. Opinions. It is all "what-ifs" and "could-bes".

12. Originally Posted by VinceVega
Never understand why people gobble everything up that ghostcrawler says as if it is an absolute truth.

Sure he has a lot of opinions and gives good insight in the industry... But they are still only that. Opinions. It is all "what-ifs" and "could-bes".
I found the topic he discussed in the the OP particularly salient given the incidence of players claiming they want WoW to shift to a more single player oriented design paradigm. I don't believe his word is Gospel; but at the same time, he very well-articulated a lot of the same thoughts I've expressed many times and figured it would be an interesting prompt for discussion.

13. Originally Posted by Relapses
I found the topic he discussed in the the OP particularly salient given the incidence of players claiming they want WoW to shift to a more single player oriented design paradigm. I don't believe his word is Gospel; but at the same time, he very well-articulated a lot of the same thoughts I've expressed many times and figured it would be an interesting prompt for discussion.
Yes. He provides a fascinating window into the thought processes of a well known developer. What he thinks can work, what he thinks doesn't work, what he hints didn't work, all are interesting, even if you don't agree with his personal preferences.

I also get a sense of honesty from Mr. Street. If something doesn't work, even if his personal preferences would have been served by it working, I feel he doesn't gloss over the failure. Maybe this is his science background coming through.

14. By the time GC will be able to ship an MMO I'll prob be 60 and not really be able to play it.

15. Originally Posted by Jervaise
By the time GC will be able to ship an MMO I'll prob be 60 and not really be able to play it.
I'd just like someone to ship an actual MMO and not another shallow looter.

16. Originally Posted by NineSpine
I'd just like someone to ship an actual MMO and not another shallow looter.
Given GC's musings, he will probably ship a Wildstar 2.0 in 5 or 10 years. And when it crashes and burns, he'll be scratching his chin wondering what could have possibly gone wrong.

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