2024 Election - Trump vs. Harris, important downballot

[Cthulhu 2020]

I guess making a play for the Nazi demographic is a choice.

It's not even technically a "bad" joice, morally reprehensible and socially disgusting, but more than ever I've noticed among conservative zoomers that just going full nazi "Hitler was right" and being 'holocaust truthers' has been trending a lot these days. Of course they say they support evidence based research which is why they're so sure the holocaust didn't happen.

I'm just waiting for the tipping point where the new age nazis do something so morally repugnant that everyone takes a step back and goes "Whoa, THIS is the conservative party now?" and we swing back to the left. But until then they'll continue to complain about "Woke" "DEI" "immigrant crisis" and random dumbasses will follow along.

[alach]

And with all of this they are still polling even. How in gods name is this possible??! I understand that broadly speaking around 30% of the western world has right leaning views, with around 10% of those being extreme, so how is donald, quite possible the worst nominee ever, with everything he is and has done, at 47%? There is just no way this is possible. I thought there would be immediate impact after Biden left, instead here we are, nearly where we started. I am getting depressed again.
Heres Seth to refresh some people's memories.

[s_bushido]

I'm just waiting for the tipping point where the new age nazis do something so morally repugnant that everyone takes a step back and goes "Whoa, THIS is the conservative party now?" and we swing back to the left.

Why do you assume that will happen?

What could they even do at this point that they haven't already done. Actually start lynching Haitian immigrants (or any black people they think are Haitian immigrants) in the street? Because honestly...would that get any more of a response than the latest slaughter of school children that they've been hand-waving away for decades?

[postman1782]

Nate Silver makes a good point - eventually the "threat to democracy" warnings fall short, especially coming from a party pushing a clearly declining Biden. You can see it in how the polls in battleground states haven't budged at all since the debate. Kamala with her slim national lead is still on track to lose fairly easily.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...tion-forecast/

Nate Silver literally hasn't been right since 2008. There is a reason he got fired from 538, and why he is now employed by Peter Thiel.

[Breccia]

I'm just waiting for the tipping point where the new age nazis do something so morally repugnant that everyone takes a step back and goes "Whoa, THIS is the conservative party now?" and we swing back to the left.

"Everyone" won't. If they would have, it would have been the violent terrorist attack that was Jan 6th. But I share hope that more classic conservatives say "it is not worth supporting Trump" without adding "and also, I'm retiring forever".

I'm just not holding my breath.

[Elegiac]

It's not even technically a "bad" joice, morally reprehensible and socially disgusting, but more than ever I've noticed among conservative zoomers that just going full nazi "Hitler was right" and being 'holocaust truthers' has been trending a lot these days. Of course they say they support evidence based research which is why they're so sure the holocaust didn't happen.

I'm just waiting for the tipping point where the new age nazis do something so morally repugnant that everyone takes a step back and goes "Whoa, THIS is the conservative party now?" and we swing back to the left. But until then they'll continue to complain about "Woke" "DEI" "immigrant crisis" and random dumbasses will follow along.

The tipping points have already occurred, is the thing.

They’re called reactionary politics for a reason; it’s the reflex of a failing system, and it only rarely actually extends the life of that system.

Which it won’t, in this case. Republicans wouldn’t be so anti-democracy if people actually agreed with them, which is telling as to how reliant on a biased electoral system they actually are.

[Bodakane]

In 1968 was the GOP the party of distracting people with bigotry so the wealthy can make more money? (Y/N)
In 1976 was the GOP the party of distracting people with bigotry so the wealthy can make more money? (Y/N)
In 1980 was the GOP the party of distracting people with bigotry so the wealthy can make more money? (Y/N)
In 1988 was the GOP the party of distracting people with bigotry so the wealthy can make more money? (Y/N)
In 2000 was the GOP the party of distracting people with bigotry so the wealthy can make more money? (Y/N)
In 2016 was the GOP the party of distracting people with bigotry so the wealthy can make more money? (Y/N)
In 2020 was the GOP the party of distracting people with bigotry so the wealthy can make more money? (Y/N)
In 2024 was the GOP the party of distracting people with bigotry so the wealthy can make more money? (Y/N)
In 2028 will the GOP still be the party of distracting people with bigotry so the wealthy can make more money? (Y/N)
In 2032 will the GOP still be the party of distracting people with bigotry so the wealthy can make more money? (Y/N)

If you answered yes to all of these questions then you agree that historical perspectives still matter.
If you answered no to any of there then pull your head out of your ass.

This is a really silly and pedantic hill to die on.

[Gorsameth]

And with all of this they are still polling even. How in gods name is this possible??! I understand that broadly speaking around 30% of the western world has right leaning views, with around 10% of those being extreme, so how is donald, quite possible the worst nominee ever, with everything he is and has done, at 47%? There is just no way this is possible. I thought there would be immediate impact after Biden left, instead here we are, nearly where we started. I am getting depressed again.
Heres Seth to refresh some people's memories.

Because American elections are not about policy.
The US is incredibly tribal. "I vote R, like my father before me and his father before him". And massive media bubbles. People stuck in the conservative Fox bubble don't even know what is actually happening in the US.

Polls don't move much because there are barely any actual swing/undecided voters that actually consider switching their votes.
90% chance if you meet an 'undecided voter' its a Republican that is afraid he will be, rightfully, called a racist masochists.

This is why elections are won and lost by turnout. If the only choices are 'vote for the party I always vote for' or stay home you campaign on getting your own people out to vote and making the other consider staying him. That and just make sure they can't vote...

And for that I feel like Harris is doing a lot more for Democrat enthusiasm in wanting to go out to vote then Biden did.

[Ivanstone]

This is a really silly and pedantic hill to die on.

After Trump is gone the GOP will still be the same party. There's nothing silly or pedantic about that.

[Bodakane]

After Trump is gone the GOP will still be the same party. There's nothing silly or pedantic about that.

That implies that the MAGA contingent was always front and center. It wasn't. That started with the Tea Party. Now yes, Jesse Helms laid the groundwork for what we have now, but to act like it hasn't kicked into a higher, more insane and further right gear, is incredibly ignorant.

[Ivanstone]

That implies that the MAGA contingent was always front and center. It wasn't. That started with the Tea Party. Now yes, Jesse Helms laid the groundwork for what we have now, but to act like it hasn't kicked into a higher, more insane and further right gear, is incredibly ignorant.

Conservative christian bigots have been a problem in the US for a very, very long time. They even started a civil war. After they lost that war they started a domestic terrorist organization.

If I was to compare the two MAGA presidents only one of them scored back to back landslide victories. The other whines a lot while his followers try to stab each other in the back.

The only meaningful difference between 2024 and 1860 is that bad news arrives in your back pocket at light speed now. Some times things do get a little better although Team 1860 fights tooth and nail to stop it.

[Jessicka]

Conservative christian bigots have been a problem in the US for a very, very long time. They even started a civil war. After they lost that war they started a domestic terrorist organization.

If I was to compare the two MAGA presidents only one of them scored back to back landslide victories. The other whines a lot while his followers try to stab each other in the back.

The only meaningful difference between 2024 and 1860 is that bad news arrives in your back pocket at light speed now. Some times things do get a little better although Team 1860 fights tooth and nail to stop it.

America was literally colonised by religious extremists driven out of Europe for being religious extremists.

[Shadowferal]

Kamala Harris Has Biggest Favorability Jump Since George W. Bush After 9/11

Vice President Kamala Harris got some very welcome news on Sunday in the form of a new NBC News poll that found her leading Donald Trump by five points nationally. But perhaps the most significant finding in the survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted from Sept. 13-17 is her massive increase in popularity since taking over for Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee in July.

Compared to July, when Harris had a 32% approval and 50% disapproval rating (nearly identical to Biden), the new poll finds 48% of respondents view her positively and 45% negatively. The three point net positive approval stands in sharp contrast to Trump’s net negative 13 point result that has remained static over the same period.

As NBC News National Political Correspondent—and data geek—Steve Kornacki and Meet the Press host Kristen Welker explained on Sunday, that 16 point turnaround is the largest favorability increase for any politician NBC has measured since George W. Bush after the September 11, 2001 attacks.

“We were seeing numbers like this for years for Kamala Harris,” Kornacki said of her previous figures, “now you’re seeing a very different story."

Meanwhile, The New York Times’ Chief Political Analyst Nate Cohn called the new NBC survey arguably Harris’ “best poll result since the debate,” and “not just because she’s up 5 points,” but “because it’s the kind of poll (the kind of poll once called the ‘gold standard’ a decade ago) that hadn’t produced a good national result for her in a while.”

When third-party candidates were added in, Harris advantage over Trump actually jumped to six points, 47% to 41%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 2%, Jill Stein at 2% and Libertarian Chase Oliver at 1%.

And yet, the Harris team is not taking anything for granted. In response to the poll results, which still fall within the margin of error, top Harris campaign adviser Brian Fallon tweeted, “Still an underdog in this race.”

...got my mail-in ballot yesterday..

[ringpriest]

I'm just waiting for the tipping point where the new age nazis do something so morally repugnant that everyone takes a step back and goes "Whoa, THIS is the conservative party now?" and we swing back to the left. But until then they'll continue to complain about "Woke" "DEI" "immigrant crisis" and random dumbasses will follow along.

History suggests that tipping point is, "the fascists get shut down by force with painful consequences for their supporters". How long it will take the current United States to get there, I have no idea. It might be next year, after the GOP goes full-insurrectionist in response to (one hopes) losing painfully in November. It might be generations from now, after North American civilization collapses under the weight of face-stepping jackboots.

- - - Updated - - -

America was literally colonised by religious extremists driven out of Europe for being religious extremists.

That's not entirely accurate. Yes, the first English-speaking colonists in what became New England were religious fanatics. But what became the Southern United States was colonized by wanna-be conquistadors who settled for making themselves drug barons. Said drug barons, in the aftermath of an early attempt to overthrow their rule, adopted a policy of encouraging racial tensions domestically, and hostility against their foreign (Native American) neighbors. Sound familiar?

[alach]

Kamala Harris Has Biggest Favorability Jump Since George W. Bush After 9/11

Vice President Kamala Harris got some very welcome news on Sunday in the form of a new NBC News poll that found her leading Donald Trump by five points nationally. But perhaps the most significant finding in the survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted from Sept. 13-17 is her massive increase in popularity since taking over for Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee in July.

Compared to July, when Harris had a 32% approval and 50% disapproval rating (nearly identical to Biden), the new poll finds 48% of respondents view her positively and 45% negatively. The three point net positive approval stands in sharp contrast to Trump’s net negative 13 point result that has remained static over the same period.

As NBC News National Political Correspondent—and data geek—Steve Kornacki and Meet the Press host Kristen Welker explained on Sunday, that 16 point turnaround is the largest favorability increase for any politician NBC has measured since George W. Bush after the September 11, 2001 attacks.

“We were seeing numbers like this for years for Kamala Harris,” Kornacki said of her previous figures, “now you’re seeing a very different story."

Meanwhile, The New York Times’ Chief Political Analyst Nate Cohn called the new NBC survey arguably Harris’ “best poll result since the debate,” and “not just because she’s up 5 points,” but “because it’s the kind of poll (the kind of poll once called the ‘gold standard’ a decade ago) that hadn’t produced a good national result for her in a while.”

When third-party candidates were added in, Harris advantage over Trump actually jumped to six points, 47% to 41%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 2%, Jill Stein at 2% and Libertarian Chase Oliver at 1%.

And yet, the Harris team is not taking anything for granted. In response to the poll results, which still fall within the margin of error, top Harris campaign adviser Brian Fallon tweeted, “Still an underdog in this race.”

...got my mail-in ballot yesterday..

Yeah I just saw these polls too. I feel so much better. They also seem to showing not just a snapshot, but a trend in the right direction. Also, lol at Vances favourability.

[Shadowferal]

Yeah I just saw these polls too. I feel so much better. They also seem to showing not just a snapshot, but a trend in the right direction. Also, lol at Vances favourability.

The more Trump and Vance talk...the easier this is.

[Mekkle]

man it must suck to almost get killed twice and no one giving a shit

[Ivanstone]

That's not entirely accurate. Yes, the first English-speaking colonists in what became New England were religious fanatics. But what became the Southern United States was colonized by wanna-be conquistadors who settled for making themselves drug barons. Said drug barons, in the aftermath of an early attempt to overthrow their rule, adopted a policy of encouraging racial tensions domestically, and hostility against their foreign (Native American) neighbors. Sound familiar?

The conquistadors were themselves very religious and self-righteous. I think the thing that was distinctively different from the US as opposed to Canada, was that Europe was willing to send anyone over to the US which included a wide variety of kooks. The French initially wanted Canadian colonies to be restricted to good reliable French people. Even after they lost them to the British I am under the impression that the British weren't sending over random nutjobs to colonize Canada.

[Logwyn]

History suggests that tipping point is, "the fascists get shut down by force with painful consequences for their supporters". How long it will take the current United States to get there, I have no idea. It might be next year, after the GOP goes full-insurrectionist in response to (one hopes) losing painfully in November. It might be generations from now, after North American civilization collapses under the weight of face-stepping jackboots.

- - - Updated - - -



That's not entirely accurate. Yes, the first English-speaking colonists in what became New England were religious fanatics. But what became the Southern United States was colonized by wanna-be conquistadors who settled for making themselves drug barons. Said drug barons, in the aftermath of an early attempt to overthrow their rule, adopted a policy of encouraging racial tensions domestically, and hostility against their foreign (Native American) neighbors. Sound familiar?

Jamestown wasn't founded as a Tocbacco colony in its original intend. The idea was to get gold and silver via trade and mining and send it back to England. The original colonist at Jamestown wouldn't bother with tobacco let alone growing their own food. Granted the land sucked for farming hence why the native americans did not settle there. But this is why the colony almost failed until about 7 years later when Rolfe showed up with tobacco seeds from Bermuda to see if that could be grown in "Virginia". But yeah it turned into that and the other things with the Navtive Americas is right.

[Poopymonster]

The conquistadors were themselves very religious and self-righteous. I think the thing that was distinctively different from the US as opposed to Canada, was that Europe was willing to send anyone over to the US which included a wide variety of kooks. The French initially wanted Canadian colonies to be restricted to good reliable French people. Even after they lost them to the British I am under the impression that the British weren't sending over random nutjobs to colonize Canada.

They were sent to Australia!