2024 Election - Trump vs. Harris, important downballot

[alach]

I sure hope you all are right, but I need more evidence that trump will lose before I can relax.
By all logic he should be 10+ pts behind now but here we are, one of the worst people on earth polling 50/50.

[Elegiac]

Funny after all this time you STILL have Bernie living rent free in your head as you try and white knight for Hillary, she’s just not into my dude. Drop it and stick to the topic at hand.

As for sources, this isn’t my original source and I didn’t link it because I read about it when I wasn’t on my computer but here.

https://www.npr.org/2024/10/15/nx-s1...a-harris-polls

And my god man, it’s been how many years now and you still can’t admit Clinton cost herself that election? And if you can’t do that, than stop talking about it because you aren’t going to retcon the past.

At this point the moderation should consider your post trolling.

Who said anything about Clinton? My point is about bad faith progressives and their consistent habit of circulating doomerism at critical points because they’d rather lose on principle than effect any meaningful change. Y’all were gunning for that in 2020, too, and are gunning for it now too with this Gaza purity testing bullshit among other things.

It’s beyond tedious. Some of us have rights on the line.

[Teriz]

hitting over 50 is huge, hillarys problem was she had a ceiling ofr 48 and trump had a lower ceiling in polls but "undecideds" were just shy/embarassed republicans who voted trump anyways

People forget that in 2016 Trump had the advantage of not having a political track record, and he ran on a very populist message of being pro-worker, anti-globalism, and saying that he was independent of outside influences and donors. I remember a lot of moderate conservatives saying "Let's just give him a chance". The reason he lost the 2020 election is because people got a taste of his divisive and chaotic politics, and his messaging was incredibly negative. The only reason it got close was because Trump had the incumbency advantage.

He's even worse in 2024 because of abortion and J6, and his rhetoric is even more toxic and insane than it was in 2020. I don't see him winning this, despite what the horserace polls would have you believe. I'm even seeing nonsense now about how high turnout somehow benefits Republicans. High turnout has NEVER benefitted Republicans, so pundits pushing that is pure BS.

[Fugus]

Who said anything about Clinton? My point is about bad faith progressives and their consistent habit of circulating doomerism at critical points because they’d rather lose on principle than effect any meaningful change. Y’all were gunning for that in 2020, too, and are gunning for it now too with this Gaza purity testing bullshit among other things.

It’s beyond tedious. Some of us have rights on the line.

You mentioned Bernie, don't be dishonest claiming you weren't referring to that.

And if you are talking about bad faith progressives than you can take that elsewhere because that ain't me.

When it comes to doomerism, that's literally me be realistic and looking at the way things are. This isn't a clean sweep so far from what I have read and those margins are too close.

You forget, I voted for Biden and I plan to vote for Harris, literally doing it tomorrow afternnoon when early voting starts.

It isn't bullshit, I actually live in North Carolina and can see where those numbers are coming from and if you recall, Trump won while losing the popular vote by the largest margin in history. And Harris killing it in the popular vote while losing the electoral college is not something I want to see.

You call me trying to look at the polling realistically as doomerism while to me you are showing undeserved optimism on this.

I have a friend in trouble for selling drugs supporting the guy who wants to execute him for it over the people who's trying to legalize it while trying to give Trump credit for pardoning all the people that Biden and Obama did pretending Trump supports it against all evidence to the contrary. I have another person who has told me that science went against GOD in their efforts to support him. I have family in Florida who makes those 2 look sane by comparison and a friend I haven't talked to in a while supporting him because they can't tell the difference between a fact an opinion.

It isn't doomerism to point out that Harris is killing it in the national polls while the swing states has her close to losing it in early voting recently. That's just telling what it shows. I don't like the fact that a swing state is a thing and its not done by the popular vote either but that's not the world we live in and in THIS world, swing states are a thing. And what happens if Harris kills it in the national vote but loses the swing states? That's why I am not overly optimistic like you are.

And also why I want to do everything I can to make sure people don't get complacent with optimism thinking they don't need to vote.

[Benggaul]

I sure hope you all are right, but I need more evidence that trump will lose before I can relax.
By all logic he should be 10+ pts behind now but here we are, one of the worst people on earth polling 50/50.

That evidence won't come until a few days after the election, probably.

As I've said before I'm cautiously optimistic, but I'm not going to be running any victory laps until the results are in. There are too many ways it can go sideways.

[Fugus]

That evidence won't come until a few days after the election, probably.

As I've said before I'm cautiously optimistic, but I'm not going to be running any victory laps until the results are in. There are too many ways it can go sideways.

Thank you, I literally said this on before and get labelled Doomer for saying it.

[TACOshake]

Who said anything about Clinton? My point is about bad faith progressives and their consistent habit of circulating doomerism at critical points because they’d rather lose on principle than effect any meaningful change. Y’all were gunning for that in 2020, too, and are gunning for it now too with this Gaza purity testing bullshit among other things.

It’s beyond tedious. Some of us have rights on the line.

Beyond tedious indeed.

Just spent the weekend canvassing, and permanently online weirdos have no clue....

• Canvassing teaches you how to spot unlikely voters, and ya, we dont waste hours in debate on them.
• Working with other canvassers is joy. Their comittment and optimism is the utter opposite of online-doomerism.

Happened to meet a counterpart from Musk's America PAC. Who was also out canvassing...

• Noticed his literature was only about Trump. Nothing on the governor or senate races.
• Found out he was getting paid $27/hr, that's neat.
• He was "very concerned" that I was just a volunteer.
• His priceless expression when I replied, "Friend, I drove 5 1/2 hours from Seattle to volunteer. Last cycle I spent hours driving to help flip WA-3. Before that it was making the haul to flip WA-8. Flipping the 5th is my new project."
• I would crawl naked over hot asphalt to distribute these voter guides, you have no idea about the depth of my motivations here.
• His contact list was targeting "first-time voters", ie, people who had not voted in prior elections. In my head I was like, uh, buddy, those aren't likely voters.

Republicans Tell Trump That Elon Musk’s Super PAC Is Blowing It
Donald Trump’s allies have been warning him that Musk’s field operation is failing in key states — and that it’s being led by DeSantis’ failed team

Ya, doomerists can got lick a battery. Non-americans that are consumed by their political hobbyisms, neat but also not worth our time.

[alach]

That evidence won't come until a few days after the election, probably.

As I've said before I'm cautiously optimistic, but I'm not going to be running any victory laps until the results are in. There are too many ways it can go sideways.

Right. And this is just with the polls, if she wins, we know he will cheat, call it before its over, stir up shit and muddy the waters for days after. A liar and a cheater will not make this next month easy on supporters of democracy across the western world.
Oh, and his billionaire friends just gave him another 300 million.

[Fugus]

Right. And this is just with the polls, if she wins, we know he will cheat, call it before its over, stir up shit and muddy the waters for days after. A liar and a cheater will not make this next month easy on supporters of democracy across the western world.
Oh, and his billionaire friends just gave him another 300 million.

She needs to win by margins so large that they CAN'T reasonably be challenged in those swing states. Even if they are they will still try but if they are close, that is a lot more crap they can try and stir up and try stuff. But instead we have polls sayings it close to her falling behind depending on which one you read. Especially with what the Supreme Court would likely do to help him here given all the stuff they have done to give him aid and comfort thus far.

As I said, I am hopeful that Harris wins, but it's like the clean sweep many here pretend it is given what we have so far. If the polls had her beating Trump 65/35 in those polls in the swing state, yeah I would agree. But a 51/49 split that goes either way. Too early to be so proud and confident.

[Sezerek]

Just spent the weekend canvassing, and permanently online weirdos have no clue....

That got a little chuckle out of me given that you and Elegiac pretty much fall in the "permanently online" category, atleast from my limited outsiders perspective.

[Poopymonster]

I sure hope you all are right, but I need more evidence that trump will lose before I can relax.
By all logic he should be 10+ pts behind now but here we are, one of the worst people on earth polling 50/50.

Don't worry. In a few years, it'll be impossible to find his voters.
No one will have voted for him. Not a single person will have voted for Trump. No Republican, they'll even laugh at the notion that they MIGHT vote for him.
Just ask them.

[Sunseeker]

Thank you, I literally said this on before and get labelled Doomer for saying it.

And even if Harris does win...
Trump wont just magically vanish. He and many Republicans will whine about rigged elections, election interference and I guarantee one of them will file Articles of Impeachment day 1. We may witness more Republican violence in our nations capitol and if so theres a chance it will be more successful than last time.
We are still living in a nation with massive economic inequality, stagnating wages, skyrocketing housing and food costs.
We are still saddled with supporting a genocidal middle eastern nation that seems hell bent on dragging us into another foreign war.

I was hopeful in 2016.

Im not anymore.

[arandomuser]

Neither of those is true.

NYT/Siena poll from a few days ago has black men voting +50 (70%/20%) for Harris.

A similar NYT/Siena poll for Hispanic voters has Harris +19 (56%/37%).

sorry meant improvements over bidens 2020 margin* but i dont believe that such a wild swing can happen especially when the 2022 midterms were so good for democrats i could be wrong though,

[Fugus]

And even if Harris does win...
Trump wont just magically vanish. He and many Republicans will whine about rigged elections, election interference and I guarantee one of them will file Articles of Impeachment day 1. We may witness more Republican violence in our nations capitol and if so theres a chance it will be more successful than last time.
We are still living in a nation with massive economic inequality, stagnating wages, skyrocketing housing and food costs.
We are still saddled with supporting a genocidal middle eastern nation that seems hell bent on dragging us into another foreign war.

I was hopeful in 2016.

Im not anymore.

I'm still hopeful. I know they won't be gone, Trump didn't make them, he just made them feel comfortable enough to reveal who they were. So they will still be there.

But, the demographics are still shifting against them and so long as the nation survives, they WILL lose. It's just about keeping the damage they do as low as possible to keep them from burning us down on their way out or doing more damage than can be fixed. But the only way they truly were to win is if they went full Taliban and established a caliphate here where they started executing people who disagreed with them while cutting off access to the internet to cut people off from the outside world.

It might take 50 years to clean up their mess, but so long as we survive and they can't successfully establish their rule, we will survive and they will lose. Just sucks knowing I will likely be dead of old age before their mess was fully cleaned up.

[Kaleredar]

Right. And this is just with the polls, if she wins, we know he will cheat, call it before its over, stir up shit and muddy the waters for days after. A liar and a cheater will not make this next month easy on supporters of democracy across the western world.
Oh, and his billionaire friends just gave him another 300 million.

He couldn’t cheat his way into a victory when he was the actual president. I’m much less worried he’ll be able to successfully overturn the election this time around if the EC shows a Harris victory.

[Poopymonster]

And even if Harris does win...
Trump wont just magically vanish. He and many Republicans will whine about rigged elections, election interference and I guarantee one of them will file Articles of Impeachment day 1. We may witness more Republican violence in our nations capitol and if so theres a chance it will be more successful than last time.
We are still living in a nation with massive economic inequality, stagnating wages, skyrocketing housing and food costs.
We are still saddled with supporting a genocidal middle eastern nation that seems hell bent on dragging us into another foreign war.

I was hopeful in 2016.

Im not anymore.

Not advocating anyone getting shot.
If there is another redhat zerging attempt this cycle, the capitol police will NOT hesitate.
This happened before. They do NOT want to go through it again.
The secret service will take zero shit from the mental defectives.
This happened before. They do NOT want to go through it again.
If the soon-to-be corpses are lucky they will get a warning shot.
And we haven't even gotten the National Guard involved yet.

[Kaleredar]

Not advocating anyone getting shot.
If there is another redhat zerging attempt this cycle, the capitol police will NOT hesitate.
This happened before. They do NOT want to go through it again.
The secret service will take zero shit from the mental defectives.
This happened before. They do NOT want to go through it again.
If the soon-to-be corpses are lucky they will get a warning shot.
And we haven't even gotten the National Guard involved yet.

And there’s no Trump at the helm to tell various police forces to stand down or not call them in.

As we’ve seen Trump’s public support is waning. If Harris wins I doubt the number of people Trump will be able to muster to the capital to try and pull some bullshit… again… will be very large. Especially when they look at what happened to the last crop of would-be insurrectionists.

[Sunseeker]

Not advocating anyone getting shot.
If there is another redhat zerging attempt this cycle, the capitol police will NOT hesitate.
This happened before. They do NOT want to go through it again.
The secret service will take zero shit from the mental defectives.
This happened before. They do NOT want to go through it again.
If the soon-to-be corpses are lucky they will get a warning shot.
And we haven't even gotten the National Guard involved yet.

I dont trust the Democrats to have enough backbone to not kid glove another attack in an attempt to preserve some bullshit notion of peace to order the SS/Army/NG to draw a hard line.

[Fugus]

And there’s no Trump at the helm to tell various police forces to stand down or not call them in.

As we’ve seen Trump’s public support is waning. If Harris wins I doubt the number of people Trump will be able to muster to the capital to try and pull some bullshit… again… will be very large. Especially when they look at what happened to the last crop of would-be insurrectionists.

I figure any violent coup attempt will fail. I worry about the Supreme Court getting involved if Johnson stays in given what he says. My biggest fear is that Harris kills it on the national stage while still losing enough swing states to have Trump legitimately get the electoral college. Even if the Democrats took control of both houses, Trump with the offices filled with loyalist and the Supreme Courts current rulings and what they would continue to do, he would likely try and rule like a king at which point things will get really bad.

[Bodakane]

And even if Harris does win...
Trump wont just magically vanish. He and many Republicans will whine about rigged elections, election interference and I guarantee one of them will file Articles of Impeachment day 1. We may witness more Republican violence in our nations capitol and if so theres a chance it will be more successful than last time.
We are still living in a nation with massive economic inequality, stagnating wages, skyrocketing housing and food costs.
We are still saddled with supporting a genocidal middle eastern nation that seems hell bent on dragging us into another foreign war.

I was hopeful in 2016.

Im not anymore.

I tried to warn people in 2016 he was going to win. I didn;t think he would in 2020 and I don't think he will this time either (and by a bigger margin than 2020 as well). His base is dwindling. When he loses this time, his hold on the party will be done. He will be a two time loser and he hasn't;t really been able to get people elected in other races to the degree that he'd retain any power anymore. Plus in 4 more years he will be a vegetable cognitively. The Repubs will strike back in 2024 with a young and dynamic candidate. I don't know if that candidate is on the scene yet or not, but losing this election will be the effective end of MAGA.