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  1. #1101
    Quote Originally Posted by Relapses View Post
    There's nothing contradictory about my stance. When he made videos using API scrapes to make similar arguments, I called him out because that is a really stupid way to try to come to a conclusion about subscriber levels. This time, he was using information shared by top brass at Blizzard so the nature of the argument he's making is completely different. It has nothing to do with bias and everything to do with how he came to conclusions he came to. I agree with the methodology he used in this video because it matches data we already knew from the QRs. That doesn't mean I agree with the methodology he used in other similar videos.
    Given the fragmentation of the player base, has it ever crossed your mind that he could be correct on all counts? he was talking about DF numbers and QRs aren't reliable data either. These all are guesses and extrapolation since there is no official number.

  2. #1102
    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    Given the fragmentation of the player base, has it ever crossed your mind that he could be correct on all counts?
    Okay and? He still used shoddy data collection techniques to support foregone conclusions in these videos. The criticism I had for him then is the same exact criticism I'd have for him today. At least here there's some amount of culpability on Blizzard's part given they shared the graph he used to figure out these numbers. There's a fundamental difference in the way the data was collected and interpreted which is important to distinguish. Bad hypotheses supported by bad data collection intended purely to generate hate clicks should not be given a pass simply because he happened to come to a more reasonable conclusion later on down the road.

    he was talking about DF numbers and QRs aren't reliable data either. These all are guesses and extrapolation since there is no official number.
    The QRs are Blizzard's calling card to their investors. There may not be numbers attached but it's the closest Blizzard comes to publicly informing anybody of the overall health of the game. There are far too many instances where the rhetoric from the QR matches what happens on the graph for it to just be coincidental. The numbers themselves are fuzzy, I've admitted as much throughout this thread. But the overall message of the graph points out that even at its worse, WoW was doing a lot better than the skeptics would be comfortable admitting and the game is in a great position to continue its domination in the MMO sector even as it crests its twentieth birthday.

  3. #1103
    Quote Originally Posted by Relapses View Post
    Okay and? He still used shoddy data collection techniques to support foregone conclusions in these videos. The criticism I had for him then is the same exact criticism I'd have for him today. At least here there's some amount of culpability on Blizzard's part given they shared the graph he used to figure out these numbers. There's a fundamental difference in the way the data was collected and interpreted which is important to distinguish. Bad hypotheses supported by bad data collection intended purely to generate hate clicks should not be given a pass simply because he happened to come to a more reasonable conclusion later on down the road.
    If not for parses, how would you measure raid and mythic dungeon participation? that's something most people use. It seems to me that's a pretty accurate way to plot trends and the health of the game when it comes to its end game content. You seem to be more bothered about what that trend showed about the health of retail by the way when it rebounded he said it was.

    The QRs are Blizzard's calling card to their investors. There may not be numbers attached but it's the closest Blizzard comes to publicly informing anybody of the overall health of the game. There are far too many instances where the rhetoric from the QR matches what happens on the graph for it to just be coincidental. The numbers themselves are fuzzy, I've admitted as much throughout this thread. But the overall message of the graph points out that even at its worse, WoW was doing a lot better than the skeptics would be comfortable admitting and the game is in a great position to continue its domination in the MMO sector even as it crests its twentieth birthday.
    MMOs aren't dominating anything, it's still lucrative but its an not as dominating or profitable as other genres which is why Blizzard has tried to branch out and failed. The genre itself has seen better days hopefully some new innovations come in and revive it but that's not very likely given the high barrier to entry and the stickiness of existing MMOs. Frankly I am happy with the progress of DF but I am weary because the player base is so split up meaning less people are going to be playing retail.

    As you have said QRs are not numbers and Blizzard is opaque for a reason WOW numbers had too much of an effect on the stock so they stopped. I am hopping with the MS buyout that changes since Blizzard alone is not enough to move that stock.
    Last edited by Draco-Onis; Yesterday at 01:36 AM.

  4. #1104
    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    If not for parses, how would you measure raid and mythic dungeon participation? that's something most people use. It seems to me that's a pretty accurate way to plot trends and the health of the game when it comes to its end game content. You seem to be more bothered about what that trend showed about the health of retail by the way when it rebounded he said it was.
    It's a bad way to gauge how the game as a whole is doing since so few players engage in end game activities. And this isn't necessarily a fault of the game -- it tries its best to push people into this content -- but the lopsided conclusion that the game is doing poorly because raid participation is down doesn't track with me. It's exceptionally bad when you consider how M+ is replacing the content loop for many people who previously raided (myself included in this demographic); it just seems unfairly biased against the health of the game and is misleading almost by default.

    MMOs aren't dominating anything, it's still lucrative but its an not as dominating or profitable as other genres which is why Blizzard has tried to branch out and failed. The genre itself has seen better days hopefully some new innovations come in and revive it but that's not very likely given the high barrier to entry and the stickiness of existing MMOs. Frankly I am happy with the progress of DF but I am weary because the player base is so split up meaning less people are going to be playing retail.
    Look man, I'm with you on an ideological level. I campaigned against Legacy for years prior to Blizzard introducing it and the main argument I had was that it would fragment the playerbase in a bad way. Now that it's happened, however, I try to look at the glass half-full. Even if the playerbase is segmented, everybody is still paying the same subscription fee. And if Blizzard can leverage content droughts with new shit in Classic to help keep the lights on then that's good news for both Classic and retail players. Can this be done forever? Who knows. But the recent uptick on the graph post-SoD/Amirdrassil seems to indicate, to me, that there's still plenty of fuel left in the engine.

    As you have said QRs are not numbers and Blizzard is opaque for a reason WOW numbers had too much of an effect on the stock so they stopped. I am hopping with the MS buyout that changes since Blizzard alone is not enough to move that stock.
    QRs stopped after Blizzard was absorbed by Microsoft; I'm sure we'll start getting them again by the end of the year. Unless you're referring to them stopping subscription reporting back in WoD? If you are, the counter-argument there is two-fold: The industry as a whole was moving towards MAUs as more consistent metric to measure engagement and if Blizzard really were concerned about poor subscription numbers impacting the stock negatively, you'd think they would make the switch before they announced they lost more than 4 million subs in a single quarter. But that's just my personal spin on it.

  5. #1105
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elfezen View Post
    Runescape is a free to play game, its not sub based as that is optional, those three (wow, ffxiv and ffxi), are exclusievely subscription, you cannot access them otherwise without paying a monthly fee (or pre-paid card), and they are the only games left that are still like that, everything else has gone buy to play or free to play
    To be fair the chunk of Runescape that is free is only marginally bigger/better then the free trials of WoW and FF XIV, so saying its built around free is kind of disingenuous.

  6. #1106


    WoW China info:

    In 2 days, 2 Million accounts pre registered to WoW
    147000 accounts reactivated
    92000 accounts recoverd

    Source is my favorite MMO-youtuber (no idea how he found this info):
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0m0y...GamingHardcore
    Last edited by Big Thanks; Yesterday at 05:08 PM.

  7. #1107
    Quote Originally Posted by Big Thanks View Post


    WoW China info:

    In 2 days, 2 Million accounts pre registered to WoW
    147000 accounts reactivated
    92000 accounts recoverd

    Source is my favorite MMO-youtuber (no idea how he found this info):
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0m0y...GamingHardcore
    I'm guessing he got it from here - https://www.wowhead.com/news/over-tw...o-china-338733

    I read in the FT that it was estimated that there was three million players (I can't remember if this was players/subs or individual accounts) at the time of the China shutdown, the fact that two thirds of them have registered interest in returning in such a short period of time is impressive.

  8. #1108
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    I'm guessing he got it from here - https://www.wowhead.com/news/over-tw...o-china-338733

    I read in the FT that it was estimated that there was three million players (I can't remember if this was players/subs or individual accounts) at the time of the China shutdown, the fact that two thirds of them have registered interest in returning in such a short period of time is impressive.
    Oh...is 2 day old info my bad

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