Arator Cinematic: Immolation

[Thirtyrock]

The STORY:
"View-count" crowd-people who get their news from Facebook and their politics from Asmongold. Other than that - they are circlederping at Bellulars.

What do you expect? They used to obsess over sub numbers-now it’s view counts. That’s the peak of their capacity.

I don't know what I expect. I learn this lesson every expansion and still get sucked in to these conversations (my choice, probably won't change, don't judge me) where I see people saying "see, this is conclusive proof that wow is dead/quality is declining" and I'm just like...no, that data doesn't mean what you think it means...

I'm just as crazy with my inability to not argue over it, I'm working on it :P

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Damn you are right about Cataclysm looks like my memory failed me.

Yeah, I have no opinion on quality over those expansions, because I don't think my opinion is relevant to the discussion. My main point is that the data being presented in this thread doesn't show that quality is declining. The data presented re- cinematic engagement could mean ANYTHING. Hell, a lot of people didn't like the main Midnight launch cinematic because they didn't like the way the elves looked. That's irrelevant to the STORY quality but could be a significant reason for lowered engagement/views.

If you don't like the story or think it's worse, talk about that. Talk about what you liked about the story before and what you don't like now. You don't need to rely on murky data to make that case and, frankly, a lot of people who are arguing you & Throwawayx aren't engaging about whether the story is better or worse, we're engaging on the fact that the data you're using to argue that the quality has declined could be interpreted in a bunch of different ways.

When you try to make quality discussions objective rather than subjective, you have to look at the whole conversation a different way. One of the questions that has to be asked is "Can this data mean more than one thing? Are there other explanations for this data"

Without controlling for other factors, the argument fails.

[mbit2]

There is no creativity - it is all data-driven. And delivery is next Thursday.

For me - datadriven is --- "We figured out we can use any random character for any story arc and the majortity of the playerbase wont give AF".

They had more than a year for this. And side quests are better which means they even have better writers but they dont get to do MSQ.

[Ielenia]

Its complete insanity to believe that Cataclysm lost over half of subscribers (i dont remember exact number) because suddenly everyone got married found jobs and had kids

Which is something I never once claimed. Ever, in my 15+ years in this forum, so good job on the dishonest strawman.

Sure some people quit because of irl issues but majority?

Which was also not something I ever claimed, even in my 15+ years in this forum, so good job on the dishonest strawman. Again.

So how about you try again, this time addressing what I've actually been writing, instead of this alternate conversation you created in your head?

[Relapses]

The real drop off didn't come until WOD, Cataclysm had a relatively mild decline and MoP had a mild decline then the dropoff came from WoD and then they stopped releasing sub numbers. So.....

I'm fairly certain you're aware, but it's important to note that the data on the sub graphs itself is a bit misleading without Blizzard's retention data. It's hard to know whether the declines were due to people leaving in higher numbers than before or if the number of new subscribers simply stopped outstripping the ones that left. Players tend to only ever frame arguments in terms of the reasons players leave and rarely (if ever) account for the fact that the sub graph shows both new players joining and old players leaving. It's a single floating data point that's almost completely meaningless other than to show the number of people subscribed. This is how we get dumb arguments like "Blizzard nerfed Warlocks in Cata, which clearly caused 500,000 players to quit." This is absurd on its face. When we contend with arguments which use this improper analysis as a baseline, we're sorta arguing to a disadvantage.

[Thirtyrock]

I'm fairly certain you're aware, but it's important to note that the data on the sub graphs itself is a bit misleading without Blizzard's retention data. It's hard to know whether the declines were due to people leaving in higher numbers than before or if the number of new subscribers simply stopped outstripping the ones that left. Players tend to only ever frame arguments in terms of the reasons players leave and rarely (if ever) account for the fact that the sub graph shows both new players joining and old players leaving. It's a single floating data point that's almost completely meaningless other than to show the number of people subscribed. This is how we get dumb arguments like "Blizzard nerfed Warlocks in Cata, which clearly caused 500,000 players to quit." This is absurd on its face. When we contend with arguments which use this improper analysis as a baseline, we're sorta arguing to a disadvantage.

Oh, for sure, all the numbers we have are without context, which is why arguing over whether quality has changed using any of the metrics, including (and perhaps especially) cinematic engagement metrics, we DO have is meaningless.

I was just correcting the quoted statement that there was a huge dropoff during Cataclysm, which wasn't reflected by the sub numbers released at the time. In the context of the conversation, I didn't think to spell it out again in that reply

[OwenBurton]

Can't get over the hair. I just can't even.

Cinematic itself is yawn, yeah the eyes are too human but it's consistent with the other cinematic at least so I won't really repeat the complaint. My biggest problem, really, is that while visually impressive it's also just so very boring. Oh no, a young and powerful warrior plagued by doubt that a whispering evil-doer is seeking to exploit to lure him to the dark side. How novel and exciting. Not at all like any other fantasy story ever told for the past 20 years.

The effects look cool. The character is whatever.

Arator looks too much like Lor'themar IMO, unless that was their intent. I do think at least, he deserves a better model and a more complex character.

It would be more interesting, if she tried to tempt him with the Void drawing upon his mother's heritage and connection to such. If the Light is so extreme, why not consider alternatives to that? I mean, many Thalassian priests/warlocks also use shadow magic, so why not him?

If Arator is too incorruptible and noble, too focused on being pure and decent, it risks turning him into a kind of "Gary Stu", or indeed a 2009 version of Anduin. They should focus on other elven characters who I think are better developed, maybe Rommath, Halduron or even Aethas.

[Relapses]

Oh, for sure, all the numbers we have are without context, which is why arguing over whether quality has changed using any of the metrics, including (and perhaps especially) cinematic engagement metrics, we DO have is meaningless.

I was just correcting the quoted statement that there was a huge dropoff during Cataclysm, which wasn't reflected by the sub numbers released at the time. In the context of the conversation, I didn't think to spell it out again in that reply

I like to relate it to Drew Carey's line on Whose Line Is It Anyway?

Welcome to Debating Subscriber Numbers in World of Warcraft, where the rules are made up and the numbers don't matter.

[Lidoric]

Leveled a bit and yeah. Game looks beautiful as always, now probably more than ever. Eversong questing is great, relaxing, reminding me of old times. But alas... story is not very good, and characters are horrible. Turalyon is portraited as a religious fanatic (why? well, because) and Arator acts not as a warrior, but as a spoiled teenage brat. He disapproves Turalyon being too cruel in a war, okay, but to sacrifice himself to protect a random enemy who is mocking and insulting his father..?? No reasonable person does that. It's just dumb.

But whatever. I did a bit of PvP too and it's okay (less buttons to push), so as in like 2-3 previous expansions, it seems I won't care much about anything else again.

[D45]

I don't know what I expect. I learn this lesson every expansion and still get sucked in to these conversations (my choice, probably won't change, don't judge me) where I see people saying "see, this is conclusive proof that wow is dead/quality is declining" and I'm just like...no, that data doesn't mean what you think it means...

I'm just as crazy with my inability to not argue over it, I'm working on it :P

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Yeah, I have no opinion on quality over those expansions, because I don't think my opinion is relevant to the discussion. My main point is that the data being presented in this thread doesn't show that quality is declining. The data presented re- cinematic engagement could mean ANYTHING. Hell, a lot of people didn't like the main Midnight launch cinematic because they didn't like the way the elves looked. That's irrelevant to the STORY quality but could be a significant reason for lowered engagement/views.

If you don't like the story or think it's worse, talk about that. Talk about what you liked about the story before and what you don't like now. You don't need to rely on murky data to make that case and, frankly, a lot of people who are arguing you & Throwawayx aren't engaging about whether the story is better or worse, we're engaging on the fact that the data you're using to argue that the quality has declined could be interpreted in a bunch of different ways.

When you try to make quality discussions objective rather than subjective, you have to look at the whole conversation a different way. One of the questions that has to be asked is "Can this data mean more than one thing? Are there other explanations for this data"

Without controlling for other factors, the argument fails.

You seem like reasonable person
What kind of data do you expect from random players when they feel like their game is going in wrong direction?
Dead friend lists, guilds or servers are not good enough?
Ofcourse cinematic views dont matter that much Warlords of Draenor Cinematic has alot of views because its just awesome cinematic compare that to Dragonflight or TWW and i would say the way blood elves looked or behaved is very revelant to story quality.
Even subs numbers dont mean that much because of the way they were counted and included chinese players paying for hours as subscribers.

You cant talk about story without aggroing every political activist in 40 yd radius and turning yourself into forum boss for groups to engage with ad personam
And story is all over the place with feelings/traumas/emotional breakdowns/crying/characters feeling sorry for themselves

Isnt existence of Classic living proof that alot of people quit because of game and not imaginary external reasons? What about people who left for other MMOs?

[Thirtyrock]

You seem like reasonable person
What kind of data do you expect from random players when they feel like their game is going in wrong direction?
Dead friend lists, guilds or servers are not good enough?
Ofcourse cinematic views dont matter that much Warlords of Draenor Cinematic has alot of views because its just awesome cinematic compare that to Dragonflight or TWW and i would say the way blood elves looked or behaved is very revelant to story quality.
Even subs numbers dont mean that much because of the way they were counted and included chinese players paying for hours as subscribers.

You cant talk about story without aggroing every political activist in 40 yd radius and turning yourself into forum boss for groups to engage with ad personam
And story is all over the place with feelings/traumas/emotional breakdowns/crying/characters feeling sorry for themselves

Isnt existence of Classic living proof that alot of people quit because of game and not imaginary external reasons? What about people who left for other MMOs?

My expectation, silly though it is, is that people won't argue from data if the data they're arguing from either doesn't exist or doesn't mean what they represent it to mean. Your opinions are valid, regardless of what they are. But when you use the types of data points that you and others in this thread have used, especially when you uncritically state that they prove XYZ, without accounting for other factors, you're building an argument that is still an opinion, but one that is difficult to engage with because you present it as an objective fact. As we've discussed, metrics like views, engagement on views, subscribers are all subject to a lot of different possible interpretations. I can't remember if it was you or someone else who said that earlier cinematics got more engagement - Irrelevant who presented it - in a vacuum, that might seem a compelling argument. But if you don't control for the time we measure those metrics (2 months after a cinematic vs 6 years), for the overall popularity of the previous expansion (If, say Shadowlands turned a bunch of players off, would those players be more or less likely to watch the Dragonflight cinematic?) - then a different picture might emerge.

I think you absolutely can talk about the story without drawing aggro from political activists, at least from more liberal minded players, by simply not bringing the identity of the characters or writers into the conversation. You don't need to bring any sort of external political bias to say "I think Anduin's arc over the last several expansions shows him as (strong for fighting through doubt/weak for experiencing doubt/whiny for not pushing through/more interpretations)" and never talk about who wrote those storylines. You can talk about Arator in the same way. I won't go into this further, because I don't find it interesting (and I don't want to engage in forbidden topics myself).

I loved Anduin's story through TWW but have absolutely despised Arator's arc in Midnight. Why? Well, I think I view Anduin's struggle and hardships as earned, where, for me at least, Arator's path to this point have not been visible to me. He reads as whiny, to the effect of blizzard saying "People though Anduin was whiny, we'll show them a whiny character".

None of my opinions there would vary if Arator/Anduin's identities were different than they are. I find one arc compelling and the other annoying. I could go into further reasons why I feel this way, but that's besides the overall point.

As to the story re-orienting itself around character drama/trauma/emotions, I think you're overall right there. That's the direction a lot of the story has headed. I've personally found it enjoyable, for the most part. I feel like I know more of the main NPCs in Midnight than I did in Dragonflight, partly because of how the story has focused on them as whole people. I've liked some of them, like Orwena & Zul'jarra a lot, but not others, like Arator. But I feel like I at least know who they are and what's going on with them, in ways that past expansions have not always done well.

I think we still have larger than life, typical fantasy-archetypes - I think Xal'atath is the obvious example, given her current status as big bad. I liked that Turalyon said "Nope, I'm not into that touchy feely stuff, I'm scarred and I'm not going to re-open that can of worms to make you feel better". He decided that, for whatever reason, he's not goign to go down a journey of self-reflection, he's going to stay (I hope) the big light wielding badass he is.

I think it's absolutely incontrovertible that many people quit wow because they didn't like the game direction. I think this has always been true. My personal hypothesis is that is a relatively small factor compared to the overall gaming environment. I don't think life-events are the primary driver, I don't think game quality or story quality are the primary drivers. I think the fact that there are far more and far more TYPES of online games out there is the most relevant factor. But i admit, fully, that this is a hypothesis that doesn't have data (available to me) to back it up. I could line up a lot of game releases over time and see how those line up with WoW's subscriber numbers, but, even if I knew the subscriber numbers with 100% accuracy, without also knowing the player activity of those other games, I'm still just posing a hypothesis, not proving my point.

For better or worse, I get irked about opinion-based/subjective arguments being presented as fact-based/objective proofs. I honestly don't care about the overall quality of the story, so long as it gives me enough context that the raid content feels like it came from somewhere. The story has always been good enough for me, with times I've liked it better and times I've liked it worse, but it's been good enough.

Re - Classic - I have lots of thoughts there, but my main one is: If WoW quality decline (story or gameplay) were the primary driver of player exodus, then Classic servers would see massive interest, thought his would vary from expansion to expansion. While there is obviously a sizeable audience for the various classic experiences, the numbers I've seen don't reflect a mass return of players. There has been a modest increase in players that seems related to Classic's release and various expansions. (I fully admit, I'm going almost entirely off of vibes and random pictures of sub number estimates related to releases. The data we have available here is terrible)

[D45]

@Thirtyrock Truth is always somewhere in the middle
I didnt bring up cinematic views and you cant rate expansions based on cinematic at least in my opinion but you can tell what vibe its going to have. (lol at Anduin feeling sorry for himself in TWW intro whos going to rewatch that from time to time?)

Every expansion had good and bad elements you cant just blame everything on external factors without any reflection on your failures and bad choices or blame players and make up lame excuses like times changed as if gaming was somehow dying and not growing.

If you are Raider/M+/PvP player ofcourse story isnt going to matter to you as much as long as you get cool stuff and good gameplay but its better to fight Lich King than generic villain who just popped up out of nowhere etc.

Classic had massive return of players at release but ended up as another low effort cash grab i think Carbot sums it up the best.