Thread: VoA and RNG.

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  1. #41

    Re: VoA and RNG.

    "Jr. Member

    Posts: 79

    Re: VoA and RNG.
    « Reply #35 on: July 21, 2009, 04:22:30 am »

    If I flip a coin 100 times and get lucky and get heads 100 times it doesn't mean the 101st toss can't be tails. Random loot are random.

    Really if you did that, I would take heads there is something wrong with that coin. Which is part of this discussion.

  2. #42

    Re: VoA and RNG.

    Quote Originally Posted by Trollpatrol

    Quote Originally Posted by Chronalis
    Rule #84 of WoW: Saying "Rotation" doesn't automatically make you a good player... or even a competent one.

  3. #43

    Re: VoA and RNG.

    Deathknight 28
    Shaman 21
    Druid 16
    Mage 8
    Hunter 8
    Warrior 5
    Rogue 4
    Warlock 2
    Paladin 2
    Priest 0
    You can post whatever gear drops you've personally seen. But it doesn't amount to much if anything at all.

    There's what? 18 Specs worth of Tier and PvP gear? Then on the PVE side you could wind up with either hands or legs? PVP side you could wind up with wrist, cloak, ring, waist, chest, hands, legs?

    I'm not exactly looking at in any sort of exact science here so maybe I've got a few details or numbers off and someone out there may or may not care to correct me.

    My point is, there's probably well over a total of 50 possible PVE/PVP drops from Emalon alone.

    That means each drop looked at alone on average may likely be less than a 2% drop rate.

    20 Separate Guilds
    In 2,000 drops, or 500 successful kills (9.5 Years worth) of Emalon25 (4 drops per kill), and with exactly 50 possible drops all with equal probability to drop and running the simulation of numbers:

    Between those 50 possible drops how often will each guild get drop #25 which we'll arbitrarily say is Feral Druid Tier Hands?

    Guild #1 would get 43
    Guild #2 would get 42
    Guild #3 would get 47
    Guild #4 would get 35
    Guild #5 would get 30
    Guild #6 would get 34
    Guild #7 would get 36
    Guild #8 would get 29
    Guild #9 would get 50
    Guild #10 would get 48
    Guild #11 would get 49
    Guild #12 would get 40
    Guild #13 would get 39
    Guild #14 would get 46
    Guild #15 would get 41
    Guild #16 would get 37
    Guild #17 would get 28
    Guild #18 would get 42
    Guild #19 would get 35
    Guild #20 would get 48

    So with a quick 20 simulations of the numbers over the span of 9.5 years of killing this boss, one guild would get 50 feral hands, while another guild would get 28.

    You can see at that large of a sample size (9.5 years) how much variance there can be. With a lower sample size the variance would be a lot larger.

    In any case, Unless you have 50+ Guild's worth of drop information broken down into the exact piece that dropped (and not just a lump sum of all the Druid gear dropped VS Warlock gear dropped), we can't even begin to try to notice a "trend" much less the exact probability of any individual piece dropping.

    In short, one guild by itself, and your sample size is way too small... unless maybe you've got 10+ years worth of data laying around you'd like to share with us. Perhaps with that we could notice a possible trend, but at best, that much information could only leave you suspicious and wouldn't really say anything conclusive.

    Edit: I just looked at the drop table for 25man Emalon...
    108 possible drops.

    So yeah, it's no wonder the post wasn't well liked on the O-Boards, you don't have enough information to say anything informative.

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