anzul mount

[Campagnolo]

He is not saying that the drop rate changes over time, just that the probability of never seeing it drop goes down over time, since clearly you are more likely to see it drop if you run it 100 times rather than 50.

This is an illusion.

100 = 50

Chance is never to be confused with Odds.

[Sunshine]

-- The probability of each run is the same, individually. You have the same chance of getting the mount on your first run as on your 101st run.

-- The overall probability of getting a mount from 100 runs is greater than that from 5 runs. If a GM came up to you and offered to give you for free all the loot from a certain number of Anzu runs, and you could pick whether that was 100 runs or 5 runs, of course you'd choose 100.

If you've already done 50 runs, this does *not* mean you're more likely to get it on the next run than you were in any other run. What it does do, however, is give you some likely 'upper bound' on the number of runs you'll need overall.

It answers the question, "How many runs before I have an X% chance of seeing the mount in at least one of those runs?"

Basically, it gives you a reason to cry at how unlucky you are if you're now up at your 700th run. :P The original point was just to show that you are actually likely to get the mount if you're persistent, unlike the previous poster had seemed to imply.

[Campagnolo]

The overall probability of getting a mount from 100 runs is greater than that from 5 runs. If a GM came up to you and offered to give you for free all the loot from a certain number of Anzu runs, and you could pick whether that was 100 runs or 5 runs, of course you'd choose 100.

All this means is I have the chance to get more than just 5 mounts.

If I run it once with no luck. The only way I'm ever going to be able to get it is to try again.

I can't deny that logic.

But the more I try will never change the 1.2% chance I have of getting it.

In the eyes of Chance.. every try is your first try.

[Deleted]

I feel bad every time I see these threads, considering I got it on my first try ever, and I'm not even a druid :S.

[Campagnolo]

I feel bad every time I see these threads, considering I got it on my first try ever, and I'm not even a druid :S.

And as odd as it may seem, Proberly is just as lucky as someone getting it on their 130th try. Just because he had to work less for it, does not change the amount of luck that was involved. Since hes not a druid, he would have to roll against 1 person at least(unless the druid had it obviously) which is cutting his chances in half. So in this case, the only factor that makes him any more lucky than anyone else with the mount is the fact that he won the roll.

[Forceflex]

Got mine yesterday, 4th or 5th run, did a run about every week when I had time lol. Yep i'm lucky

[huangzhong9]

I read somewhere it has a higher drop rate if you know what it's called.

[Momof267]

ii got mine a bout 2 months ago i did the quest went in there and it dropped my hubby got it....so pissed lol...then it took me another two weeks of going in there every day and i finally got it....took some other guildies and it took them about 2 to 3 weeks of running it to get it

[Proxiz]

Can any give some numbers thats needed to solo him, from istant start to kill (have read that trash is the "hard" part).

HP: ?
Def: ?
AP: ?
Agi: ?
ect...

and is there a "special" build for this?

[Yuqii]

lets say your only able to run this 100 times before you can never run it again.. and blizz makes it so in any one of those runs your going to get the mount.. so you know for a fact you have 1 in 100 odds to get the mount. If this were the case.. then youd be able to use your calculations. because the more you run it with no drops will increase your chance to get it on the next run.

In reality. it doesnt matter how often you run it. you will never have higher that a 1.2% for it to drop. You're only creating an illusion of greater odds with your math. Even if you have run in 1000 times, on your next run, you will still only have a 1.2% chance to get it.

Not trying to knock your math skills or anything, just saying its all pointless.

1.2% is 1.2%

Maths is hard yo.

Lets say that for the sake of the argument that when you get to Anzu you flip a coin and need to get heads to get him to drop. So for the sake of the argument, his drop rate is 50 percent.

So flip a coin, if you get heads, you just got Anzu to drop.

Flip a coin 10 times in a row. Now do you think that in all of those 10 coin flips there is going to be the same chance of seeing a head pop up? Now tell me "50% is 50%".

Flip a coin once - 50 percent chance of seeing at least 1 head.
Flip a coin 10 times - 99.90 percent chance of seeing at lease 1 head.

Now once again with some real numbers applicable to the case in point.

Try for Anzu once - 1.2 percent chance you will see him drop at least once
Try for Anzu 200 times - 91.06 percent chance you will see him drop at least once
Try for Anzu 1000 times - 99.999 percent chance you will see him drop at least once

"Not trying to knock your math skills or anything"

[Yuqii]

Can any give some numbers thats needed to solo him, from istant start to kill (have read that trash is the "hard" part).

HP: ?
Def: ?
AP: ?
Agi: ?
ect...

and is there a "special" build for this?

As a druid? Probably easy enough in any of the three specs. I did it in feral with ~T7.5 gear. Trash is easy. you only have to clear the packs in his room you can stealth past everything else.

With the current state of how easy it is to get gear you could probably waltz in with some Toc5 gear and rip him up. If your patient you can keep a rejuv on the bird statue that does the passive aoe damage and you can actually slowly wear down his health without agroing him or resetting him.

Don't worry about stats, just stealth on in there and give it a shot.

[Proxiz]

As a druid? Probably easy enough in any of the three specs. I did it in feral with ~T7.5 gear. Trash is easy. you only have to clear the packs in his room you can stealth past everything else.

With the current state of how easy it is to get gear you could probably waltz in with some Toc5 gear and rip him up. If your patient you can keep a rejuv on the bird statue that does the passive aoe damage and you can actually slowly wear down his health without agroing him or resetting him.

Don't worry about stats, just stealth on in there and give it a shot.

Im not 80 yet, so im just looking at what gear I can acces "easy" (BoE and stuff), but im guessing the lvl 78 Evisitor PvP set is to poor.

[Kalx]

got on my third run, hate me


or laugh at me, for having 250 runs on baron and no mount

[Zangu]

Can any give some numbers thats needed to solo him, from istant start to kill (have read that trash is the "hard" part).

HP: ?
Def: 400
AP: ?
Agi: ?
ect...

and is there a "special" build for this?

In the beginning I found the Trash in Anzu's room a pain in the ass especially the Sethekk Prophets as they're fearing which a) is annoying since you're not doing dmg for 6-8 seconds thus not gaining any procs of Improved Leader of the Pack/Savage Defense and b) you're quite likely to get feared into other groups in the beginning of clearing the crowded room. A reason why I'm killing them first.
On the other Hand a very welcome MOB in Groups are the Avian Warhawk's since they're CC'able with Hibernate rendering the Packs of 4 into 3's.

Anzu himself is annoying because of the Paralyzing Screech he's sometimes doing. Have your Lacerate at 5 Stacks and everything else necessary ( Mangle (Bear) & Demoralizing Roar ) applied short before he finishes the 5sec Cast of this spell. Else you won't do anything for 6 sec. except Barkskin.

I'm running the Instance with 200-219 ToC Epics in 0|55|16

Beeing able to Shadowmeld as a Nightelf was/is quite handy if anything goes wrong ( and you still can use it somehow while not beeing stun/fearlocked )

[Deleted]

or laugh at me, for having 250 runs on baron and no mount

4210 kills and still counting , (before the chance was increased) - saw it drop at 175th kill, and a noob that i brought with me to loot stuff picked it due to ffa

[Sunshine]

and is there a "special" build for this?

Everything Zangu mentioned is spot on. 3 quick additions:

-- Get glyphs of maul, SI, and FR; they're immensely helpful. Pop SI+FR to restore a good portion of your hp when you get low (~30%).

-- You can use Nature's Grasp (castable in feral forms) to get an extra CC on the group beyond the first root/sleep. If it happens to hit a caster, try to LoS it.

-- Try to wedge yourself in a corner or behind some objects on the ground. That way, if you get feared, you'll hopefully get stuck on it long enough to prevent running into any other packs.

[Campagnolo]

"Not trying to knock your math skills or anything"

I used math?

You people make it seem like Anzu is on par with Poker or 21.

if you have 52 cards.. one of which is an Ace of spades. That means you have a 1 in 52 shot at drawing that card on your first try.. Now your chances will increase by each card you draw that is not the Ace of Spades, because eventually, you WILL draw that card.

You assume Anzu WILL drop eventually when it very well could NEVER drop for you.. That is the difference between Odds and Chance.

It doesn't matter how much math you think you know.. it's drop rate or your shot at getting one will NEVER exceed 1.2%

[Kaaboomkin]

Hmm, I had the mount drop twice for me once I gave it to my friend Dweck on 3-23-09. Then I started solo running it maybe twice a week and got it for myself on 4-12-09.

If you want proof:
Kaaboomkin - Maelstrom US
Dweck - Maelstrom US

I am not sure how your math would factor that in. O.o

[Tomhvk]

Took me 12 runs soloing it on my feral tank, then i took my DK and got it 2nd try, yehyeh i know im very very lucky

[Yuqii]

I used math?

You people make it seem like Anzu is on par with Poker or 21.

if you have 52 cards.. one of which is an Ace of spades. That means you have a 1 in 52 shot at drawing that card on your first try.. Now your chances will increase by each card you draw that is not the Ace of Spades, because eventually, you WILL draw that card.

You assume Anzu WILL drop eventually when it very well could NEVER drop for you.. That is the difference between Odds and Chance.

It doesn't matter how much math you think you know.. it's drop rate or your shot at getting one will NEVER exceed 1.2%

I used a coin example, not a card example - Please keep up. Do you honestly believe that somebody who is going to try for the mount 10,000 times has got the same chance as somebody who is only going to try once?

"You assume Anzu WILL drop eventually when it very well could NEVER drop for you"
The more times you run it the more chances you have of it dropping. As the amount of times a player tries for the mount approaches infinity he will be guaranteed of getting the mount - Eventually.

Yes I assume Anzu will eventually drop because it will. If a player never stops running the instance they are guaranteed the mount will eventually drop.

I think you need to take a trip back to year 11 maths because this is pretty simple stuff.