Raids of Different Sizes Cannot be Tuned to Equal Individual Difficulties

[Pendergrass]

Raids of Different Sizes Cannot be Tuned to Equal Individual Difficulties

This note is in regards to the tuning of raids of different sizes to equal difficulties.

The conclusion of this note is that for raids of different sizes, except in a narrow category of raid mechanics, tuning of the raids to the same difficulty is not possible.

The key statistic which is explored by this note is the change of failure (PF_s) of a raid member in cases where the failure of a single raid member during a boss encounter will very probably lead to a failure of the entire raid during that boss encounter.

Examples of boss encounters where such is the case are numerous. For example, in Blood Queen, Blood Princes, and Thaddius.

There are other examples where a single failure does not necessarily lead to a complete failure, for example, Patchwerk.

Definitions:

PS_s = The chance of success of a single raid member
PF_s = 1.00 - PS_s = The chance of failure of a single raid member

PS_r = The chance of success of the entire raid.
PF_r = 1.00 - PS_r = The chance of failure of the entire raid
n = The number of members of the raid

Raid Failure Formula:

(1) PS_r = (PS_s)^n
(1') PF_r = 1.00 - (1.00 - PF_s)^n

Assumptions:

1) The chance of a single raid member succeeding or failing is independent
of the chance of any other raid member succeeding or failing.

2) All raid members must success for the success of the entire raid.
(The failure of a single raid member will fail the entire raid.)

Inverting the raid failure formulas (1) and (1') gives:

(2) PS_s = PS_r^(1/n)
(2') PF_s = 1.00 - (1.00 - PF_r)^(1/n)

Working from a target overall chance of failure of 0.50 (50%), this results to PS_s(n = 10) = 0.933 and PS_s(n = 20) = 0.966, and PF_s(n = 10) = 0.067 and PF_s(n = 20) = 0.034. Note that PS_s(10) = PS_s(20)^2 because of the particular selections for n.

That is, depending on the the particular mechanics of the boss encounter, tuning the fight to provide the same level of difficulty for individual raid members leads to a different chance of success for the entire boss encounter. Conversely, again for particular mechanics, having the same overall chance of success for the encounter
requires that the encounter be set at a different level of difficulty for each raid member.

Notes:

The selection of raid sizes (n = 10) and (n = 20) does not limit the result: The key relationship is the difference in raid sizes.

The selection of raid mechanics to single point failures is limiting, but is a valid approximation of many current raid mechanics.

[Barthos]

You fail to understand that this is Blizzard... they will find a way - either nerfing the people in 25 mans (not showing up on the meters) or stealth buffing the people in 10 mans thus converting the damage/healing done by the 10 people to the normal amount a 25 man raid would do.

[~alex~]

(1) PS_r = (PS_s)^n
(1') PF_r = 1.00 - (1.00 - PF_s)^n


Wat. Why would it be power? It should be multiplied.

[Gryzorz]

if a fight with 1 guy failure make the fight fail in 10 men is translated to a 2,5 guy failure resulting in a fight failure ni 25 men, is that okay ?

I mean you assume raid mechanic will stay the same as in WotLK, where raid difficulties were not tuned to be that equal.

Isn't that a flaw on the logic ?

[Twoflower]

Of course it is possible, no matter how much bogus math you throw at us.

[Lark]

I'm really disappointed in the lost potential in this thread.

[Deleted]

OP put so much effort it, nobody even looks at it!

[Gravion]

(1) PS_r = (PS_s)^n
(1') PF_r = 1.00 - (1.00 - PF_s)^n


Wat. Why would it be power? It should be multiplied.

Seriously, this is high school algebra.
Let's say you flip a coin twice. What's the probability of getting heads twice in a row?

(0.5)*2=(1.0) or always <- INCORRECT
(0.5)^2=(0.5)*(0.5)=0.25, or one in four. <- CORRECT

[Pythagoreant]

So they make your chance of failure slightly higher in 25-man by adding an additional mechanic. The end.

[Gravion]

So they make your chance of failure slightly higher in 25-man by adding an additional mechanic. The end.

Then 25-mans would be "harder" again wouldn't they? Cause in 25man Deathwing you have to dodge flame walls!

To the OP, I am very pleased to see there are other educated people playing World of Warcraft. Sometimes I forget that people like you exist. /salute

[emni]

So they make your chance of failure slightly higher in 25-man by adding an additional mechanic. The end.

Exactly. The 25-man encounter won't be the same as the 10-man encounter, that's the whole point. Each will, however, have something that will make the two very similar in difficulty. Blizzard can remove or add boss abilities or even resize rooms to make the chance of failure and chance of success equal in both 10 and 25-man.

[Pythagoreant]

Blizzard can remove or add boss abilities or even resize rooms to make the chance of failure and chance of success equal in both 10 and 25-man.

To think about what this would look like, fly into the Crusaders' Coliseum (not into an instance portal). Now enter the 5-man. Now enter the raid. Each one is increasingly larger, but it's not a hugely noticeable difference because of the number of players with whom you enter.

[Shiggity]

I think it's awesome that you tried to quantify 'epic fail' into an equation ;D

[Deleted]

My head just exploded

[Offhand]

To think about what this would look like, fly into the Crusaders' Coliseum (not into an instance portal). Now enter the 5-man. Now enter the raid. Each one is increasingly larger, but it's not a hugely noticeable difference because of the number of players with whom you enter.

you're going to need to suspend disbelief in that case (you're already playing a mythical race casting magic spells, this shouldn't be hard). A mechanic like bloodbolt whirl is entirely trivial on 10 man when you have acres to spread out in relation to other people.

Your options are make the room smaller or increase the space needed to spread out (opening a whole different can of worms).

[Zenotetsuken]

Exactly. The 25-man encounter won't be the same as the 10-man encounter, that's the whole point. Each will, however, have something that will make the two very similar in difficulty. Blizzard can remove or add boss abilities or even resize rooms to make the chance of failure and chance of success equal in both 10 and 25-man.

^

Having to carry 10 people every raid is 90% of the challenge in 25 mans. Hopefully with these changes they will make the encounters overall more balanced by banking on raids taking less fail players just to fill the #'s gap.

[Hugmenot]

Assumptions:

1) The chance of a single raid member succeeding or failing is independent
of the chance of any other raid member succeeding or failing.

2) All raid members must success for the success of the entire raid.
(The failure of a single raid member will fail the entire raid.)

Why post your equations and your conclusion when you know your assumptions are false?

It is clear to me no one encounter will have the EXACT SAME level of difficulty in both 10- and 25-man raids. The goal is just for the levels of difficulty to be close enough, with a evenly distributed number of slightly easier 10-man enocunters and slightly harder 10-man encounters.

I believe Blizzard will successfully tune the encounters for the marginal difference in level of difficulty to be a non-issue to almost everyone.

[Tatanke]

steve hawkins plays wow, my mind is blown

[Pieterman]

they can try.

[Kheirn]

So you're saying that you can't tune them to be equal because your math sais so?

The point of 10-man is to put more focus on the individual than on the teamplay of the raid, even though coordination is still vital in 10.
Now, if it would be severely more punishing for a person to fuck up in 10, you might say 25 is actually easier if you can just get enough people with a brain. 10-man puts more stress on each person while 25 puts more stress on getting everyone coordinated. Using this plan to balance it out, I can definitely see how they can be, or at least close to, equal in difficulty. As said here, adding/removing certain aspects of the fight or changing the size of the room are two very good variables to add to the equation.

Your math simply doesn't reflect reality, WoW isn't black and white math.