China will probably help stage a coup with a China backed revolution group since China doesn't want to see South Korea try and unify the country.
China will probably help stage a coup with a China backed revolution group since China doesn't want to see South Korea try and unify the country.
Back in the cold war there was this stuff called M.A.D. which stands for Mutual Assured Destruction. The point was that if either the USA or Russia would have pushed the big red button then the other would still had time to push their own big red button before the nukes get to them. So they weren't so keen on pushing the red buttons.
The M.A.D. is somewhat still in place (that's why Russia went nuts when the USA wanted to place an antimissile system in Eastern Europe a couple of years ago) but the problem is that Kim Jong Il is kinda mad too. In my opinion he would push the big red button should NK get attacked.
I don't think China really cares about its relationship with South Korea based on trade. They do not require the Korean market to maintain their monstrous grip on world trade. I do however forsee China breaking its ties with NORTH Korea so it can reclaim Taiwan in a swap. I think China is waiting to use its military presence in the area as a bargaining chip to expand (even into contested islands/water with Japan)
I am watching with great interest. I think the situation in North Korea is very uniqe and horrible at the same time. There is so many dark things happening in there. And from a humanity view, i think it would be good to see the state dissolved and clear up in there. It would be a suprising, long and very confusing job tho.
I also think that if this comes to war, it will result in North Korea dissolving, and this process beginning. I do not however mean that it will end that way easily or without significant loss on both sides.
All in all, there is very little we can do but to sit and wait, and see how this plays out.
From what I have gathered its mostly just a show of power. At least, I thought so until I talked with my (South) Korean friend about it. Apparently the South Koreans are completely fed up with it at this point, and have promised retaliation for further hostilities.
Perhaps the most dangerous aspect of North Korea is the fact that the citizens trully have nothing to lose. Fortunately, any nukes Kim Jong-il may have cannot reach the United States or Europe. They can, however, reach Japan (I think)
As with most wars the U.S. likes to be apart of Post Vietnam...
The primary concern I would have is the level of intimidation the U.S. would try on both China and N.K. to get them to 'see it there way'... It's something that is a possible due to how the US handles foreign policy to begin with. While both China and the US are trying to calm those violent Star Craft Players down, I still don't think it will end well in the long run if Kim Jun Ill dies, and his son's only move is to show military might to convince his population that he's just as good as daddy... South Korea as well has become more aggressive in their policies, and may actually try this 'turf war' with, or even without, the help of the United States. But of course that alone would pull the two super powers into the conflict since China and the US have so much 'invested' in the region...
All in All: if the US was smart enough to let things blow up on their own, this wouldn't be a problem... But since the USA has a bad track record of being a self-righteous meddler in things, this may be another area that they bite off more than they can chew... and China can easily screw over the US if they suddenly decide to call our debt that they have on the Dollar...
i suspect a North vs South Starcraft 2 Tournament will conclude the rivalry
Last edited by Fuzzzie; 2010-12-08 at 05:59 PM. Reason: fixed quote
Wait what did i miss?
The only nation I'm worried about at this point is North Korea, because Kim sees the writing on the wall. He has been in poor health for months. Now while this is good in a sense because his son (much like Raul Castro) is far less hard line than his father, Kim may launch a final attack for his legacy. At this point, he will need to do a lot to save his legacy with the people of North Korea, and as ridiculous as it sounds this would be what would do it. There is nothing that rallies a people to a cause more than war, as depressing as it sounds. I sincerely hope that it does not happen, but as long as Kim is in charge nothing should be ruled out.
I wish I had something positive to add to the conversation, but most viewpoint are already well represented. I'm more of a wait and see kind of guy. I hope that the bravado from Kim Jong Il dies with him, and his son tones down the crazy a bit. Who knows?
On a side note, the fact that this thread is still on topic and constructive is nothing short of astonishing! Kudos to everyone involved!!!
It's just a big who has the bigger balls contest. South Korea should just let north Korea starve imo. Why give aid to a country that kills your civilians?
China and North Korea both know that if they allow this to escalate, the US will get directly involved beyond telling China to take control of its dog. They know they can't afford to let that happen.
North koreans don't even have access to the internet, so I doubt it. Starcraft is only massively popular in South Korea, which is confusing because whenever anybody talks about starcraft they always say "koreans" and not "south koreans". Why? Because it's quickly to say probably. >.<
You do realise that North Korea isn't a (proper) democracy, right? So the citizens of NK can't be blamed for the aggresion of the NK government. So why wouldn't they try to give aid to NK civilians?
There is the obvious problem that NK people are brainwashed by their government, but it's still not their fault that they worship their government, they only do that because that's all they know.