Theory: Halfus is not Random

[Simca]

I has a theory: Halfus Wyrmbreaker is not random.

I discovered, as many others before me, that the drakes are not random per raid ID - they're the same across your realm. I also figured out quickly that they're the same in 10-man and 25-man (easy to test, just check, run out, switch difficulties, check again).

Based on comments and forum threads on here, I also figured out (as many others have) that they're the same across regions. US and EU seemed to have different combinations.

So I figured, just in case, let me look through World of Logs and see if it is possible that there is a pattern. I mean what's the worst that could happen, I waste two hours for nothing? (I do that a lot.)

The results were... interesting. I later tried to add in TW and KR to confirm my analysis, but their drakes appeared to be the same as the EU at first glance (note: I could be wrong on TW and KR, I only looked at maybe 3-5 TW and KR logs compared to 50+ of the others).

Weeks:
Week 1: 12/7 - 12/13
Week 2: 12/14 - 12/20
Week 3: 12/21 - 12/27
Week 4: 12/28 - 1/3
Week 5: 1/4 - 1/10
Week 6: 1/11 - 1/17
Week 7: 1/18 - 1/24
Week 8: 1/25 - 1/31

EDIT/NOTE: For EU, all these weeks are off by one day due to the Wednesday reset vs Tuesday reset, so:
12/8 - 12/14, 12/15 - 12/21, 12/22 - 12/28, 12/29 - 1/4, 1/5 - 1/11, 1/12 - 1/18, 1/19 - 1/25, 1/26 - 2/1
are the correct weeks, in order from 1 to 8 for EU guilds. Sorry about that.

US Drakes by Week
Storm Rider, Time Warden, Whelps
Nether Scion, Storm Rider, Whelps
Nether Scion, Slate Dragon, Whelps
Slate Dragon, Storm Rider, Whelps
Nether Scion, Slate Dragon, Time Warden
Slate Dragon, Storm Rider, Time Warden
Nether Scion, Storm Rider, Time Warden
Nether Scion, Storm Rider, Slate Dragon

EU/KR/TW Drakes by Week
Nether Scion, Storm Rider, Time Warden
Nether Scion, Slate Dragon, Storm Rider
Slate Dragon, Time Warden, Whelps
Nether Scion, Time Warden, Whelps
Storm Rider, Time Warden, Whelps
Nether Scion, Storm Rider, Whelps
Nether Scion, Slate Dragon, Whelps
Slate Dragon, Storm Rider, Whelps

Potential Drake Cycle Pattern
Nether Scion, Slate Dragon, Time Warden (Week 5 in US) (Week 9 in EU/KR/TW)
Slate Dragon, Storm Rider, Time Warden (Week 6 in US) (Week 10 in EU/KR/TW)
Nether Scion, Storm Rider, Time Warden (Week 7 in US) (Week 1 in EU/KR/TW)
Nether Scion, Storm Rider, Slate Dragon (Week 8 in US) (Week 2 in EU/KR/TW)
Slate Dragon, Time Warden, Whelps (Week 9 in US) (Week 3 in EU/KR/TW)
Nether Scion, Time Warden, Whelps (Week 10 in US) (Week 4 in EU/KR/TW)
Storm Rider, Time Warden, Whelps (Week 1 in US) (Week 5 in EU/KR/TW)
Nether Scion, Storm Rider, Whelps (Week 2 in US) (Week 6 in EU/KR/TW)
Nether Scion, Slate Dragon, Whelps (Week 3 in US) (Week 7 in EU/KR/TW)
Slate Dragon, Storm Rider, Whelps (Week 4 in US) (Week 8 in EU/KR/TW)

This week is Week 8. Here at the ones you should have had (or will have, based on when you raid this week):
US: Nether Scion, Storm Rider, Slate Dragon (based on my guild's logs and the rest of my server)
For EU, other. guilds'. logs. confirm. this: (note all five totally different servers, and differing difficulty modes)
EU: Slate Dragon, Storm Rider, Whelps


Next week is Week 9, and the bolded ones are me trying to predict the future.

This means that If I'm right, next week's drakes will be:
US: Slate Dragon, Time Warden, Whelps
EU/KR/TW: Nether Scion, Slate Dragon, Time Warden


I was planning on posting this next week, but I want to post this now just for proof (or counter-proof) when the week changes.

Anyone have any experiences contradictory to this? Is this old information? (I didn't see it anywhere else.)

[Genoce]

I knew that they are the same for everyone on the realm, but I gotta say I didn't expect them to follow a pattern. Kinda useless, but still interesting info.

[A Day to Remember]

The Almond Puppy can read the future! Pretty nice if u ask me, would certainly help to devise some type of a pattern.

[Deleted]

Now we know which weeks we're gonna drown in misery or sleep our way through that encounter..

[Longview]

dun dun DUNN

[Clawtrocity]

I'm quite happy with this. I was wondering when we would be able to see the whelps again and if this is correct we got a lot of whelp weeks incoming! =)

[Sesshou]

Now we know which weeks we're gonna drown in misery or sleep our way through that encounter..

Honestly I have yet to see any normal mode combination that posed a significant issue. You also fight all 5 at once on HM so that wouldn't matter there either. Been killing him since week 1 as well.

[Simca]

Honestly I have yet to see any normal mode combination that posed a significant issue. You also fight all 5 at once on HM so that wouldn't matter there either. Been killing him since week 1 as well.

For a lot of newer raiding guilds walking in the first time, or for guilds who change their tactics based on the encounter (like my own), it could be useful information.

/shrug

If it helps 1 person out of 100 that reads this thread (after it is confirmed), I'd be happy.

[deevicoos]

It's a theory that cannot be proven, but if this data is infact correct, (seems it) then it's probably already well beyond the standard 5% confidence. You cannot prove this theory no matter how much data you get (unless blizzard confirm it) but by the time you're 2 weeks into cycle 2, you can be almost certain.

[Simca]

It's a theory that cannot be proven, but if this data is infact correct, (seems it) then it's probably already well beyond the standard 5% confidence. You cannot prove this theory no matter how much data you get (unless blizzard confirm it) but by the time you're 2 weeks into cycle 2, you can be almost certain.

I agree.

The part I don't understand is why the US guilds are out of sync with the EU/KR/TW guilds. Is it because the beta servers were all US-hosted? (I think?)

Also, this Tuesday could be a major patch, and if it is, how does the cycle interact with patches? (Hopefully it doesn't, or my predictions will be totally wrong and I'll look more dumb than usual.)

[Sesshou]

For a lot of newer raiding guilds walking in the first time, or for guilds who change their tactics based on the encounter (like my own), it could be useful information.

/shrug

If it helps 1 person out of 100 that reads this thread (after it is confirmed), I'd be happy.

I think you misunderstood me. I think its great you figured all that out, and it is useful information. For example you can pre determine before the raid the order you are killing them in rather than thinking about it after you round the corner and take a peek. I just meant that if you get it the first week, no matter the combination the second week so long as you know what they all do, the combination should not be drastically more difficult.

[Simca]

I think you misunderstood me. I think its great you figured all that out, and it is useful information. For example you can pre determine before the raid the order you are killing them in rather than thinking about it after you round the corner and take a peek. I just meant that if you get it the first week, no matter the combination the second week so long as you know what they all do, the combination should not be drastically more difficult.

I agree mostly. But I mean... a whelp combination like Slate Dragon, Time Warden, Whelps is very simple compared to a combination like Slate Dragon, Time Warden, Nether Scion.

The whelps are a non-issue for most guilds, but Nether Scion and Time Warden are both high priority kill drakes. So when you get two easy drakes (Slate + Whelps) and a hard one, you can pull the hard one first and the danger is avoided.

But when you get two high priority kill drakes, the fight can be a lot more difficult in the first minute (until you pull the second drake and his ability is deactivated or if you pull both at once... until the first drake dies and the tank damage is lessened).

[Tripping]

Nothing is ever random.

[Fierae]

Nice to know! I didn't realise there was a 'rotation' as such.

[seam]

This is actually really interesting...I was under the impression that every raidID was different(Like how the trash mobs in AQ worked).

[DarkPhoenix]

Just Got Slate, Storm, Nether on US-(oceanic) Khaz'goroth.

Thought it was supposed to be Whelps?

[Deleted]

<snip>

Don't post useless meme images. ~ Fuzzzie

[Sesshou]

I agree mostly. But I mean... a whelp combination like Slate Dragon, Time Warden, Whelps is very simple compared to a combination like Slate Dragon, Time Warden, Nether Scion.

The whelps are a non-issue for most guilds, but Nether Scion and Time Warden are both high priority kill drakes. So when you get two easy drakes (Slate + Whelps) and a hard one, you can pull the hard one first and the danger is avoided.

But when you get two high priority kill drakes, the fight can be a lot more difficult in the first minute (until you pull the second drake and his ability is deactivated or if you pull both at once... until the first drake dies and the tank damage is lessened).

I will agree that the whelps are far far easier than anything else. But even in your example, I don't think it matters that much. For instance you seem to indicate nether and time are the biggest threat and need to be killed, however we didn't even kill the time, it was released after drake 1 died (which iirc was slate) and was tanked in a corner. We did realize eventually, after having multiple different 3 drake combinations, that the slate really isn't a priority to kill, but if we did it with out much more effort than the other combinations with an ass backwards kill order, it can't be that much harder than the whelps if you were to do it correctly.

Also you say tank damage if you get 3 drakes versus 2 and whelps. For 2 drakes and whelps we release everything at once immediately and for 3 drakes we release 2 immediately and the 3rd when the first dies. So with our strat there is technically more tank damage with whelps (though their damage is laughable).

Basically, I'm saying I agree certain combinations are easier, but if you are using the absolute best strat for each combination it shouldn't matter too much.

[Simca]

Just Got Slate, Storm, Nether on US-(oceanic) Khaz'goroth.

Thought it was supposed to be Whelps?

Nope, this reset, you're right, it is Slate, Storm, Nether in the US.

Next week -should- be whelps in the US.

[DarkPhoenix]

Nope, this reset, you're right, it is Slate, Storm, Nether in the US.

Next week -should- be whelps in the US.

Ah kay, heard from a few people it was whelps.