An Interesting Theory about Rares Procc Chance in Archaeology

[Deleted]

Might be the chance on project is higher but for me it didnt work. So for me this theory doesnt hold ground.

Why?
I leveled arch on 2 of my alts, havent solved single troll project till i hit skill 450. On my DK i made ~ 60 troll solves and on my shamy ~40. Since it was pre-patch i solved all saved fragments right after skill got 450. Maybe i have some time and can check if all commons are solved and how many repeated. If i do it ill post it here. Havent done any more solves after i burned those trolls i saved for 450 skill so it can be easy tracked since im grinding it on my main which is on ~260 troll solves.

[Leobald]

When my skill level hit 100, before I'd done a single solve of ANYTHING, my first three fossil solves were the exact same common, three times in a row. I remember it specifically because it was my first experience with archeology -- I hadn't tried it on beta -- and I didn't know if it meant solving dozens of copies of the same grey item until I got a rare or if there were different grey things.

The "you don't get repeat commons until you have solved all possible commons for your skill level" thing was only implemented some time after Cata launch (few days, one or two weeks, can't remember). This was not the case right at launch. If your first experience with Archeology was right after launch day, then your three repeat commons do not disprove the theory, since they do not disprove the premiss.

I certainly remember blue confirmation that you shouldn't get a repeat common until you have all commons. Whether this works or is bugged is another question.

Note also that I do not say that the theory itself is correct and everybody should level archeology on their alts. The theory makes some unproven assumptions. I don't think that there is any proof (the theory certainly does not provide any) that when the RNG "rolls" a number, and that number would yield an uneligible (while already solved) common, it effectively just picks something from the rest. Maybe it just rolls 1-100 again and again, until it gets a valid result. In this case the drop rate for Zin'Rokh would stay always 1%. (assuming it has a 1% drop rate in the first place)

---------- Post added 2011-03-11 at 03:09 PM ----------

[QUOTE=Tziva;10709739]That could definitely be true, or different rares could have different odds.[QUOTE]

There is no doubt what so ever that different rares have different drop rates. Zin'Rokh, the doll, the staff, they all have much lower drop rates than say the fossil mount and pet.

For the Tol'Virs the ring and the Scarab pendant have much higher drop rates than for example the mount. so many people get exactly those two Tolvir rares early on, this cannot be coincidence.

[Fichek]

A completely flawed theory. And his math is.. somewhat.. completely wrong. His percentages just seem to vanish in thin air. I understand what he wanted to accomplish, but it all went horribly wrong after first solve
Anyways, using the arbitrary 1% chance, it probably goes something like this.. 1% chance for Zin'rokh, 99% divided equally amongst currently eligible unsolved commons regardless of their number. If you have 5 eligible unsolved commons it's 1% Zin'rokh and 19.8% for each common. After the next common you get 1% chance for Zin'rokh and 24.75% for each of the remaining 4 unsolved commons. The chance to NOT get zin'rokh will always remain at 99%, and it will be equally distributed between currently eligible unsolved commons or all the commons if you don't have anymore unsolved ones.

But in any case, this is no longer relevant after the 200 fragments cap.

[Tziva]

The "you don't get repeat commons until you have solved all possible commons for your skill level" thing was only implemented some time after Cata launch (few days, one or two weeks, can't remember). This was not the case right at launch. If your first experience with Archeology was right after launch day, then your three repeat commons do not disprove the theory, since they do not disprove the premiss.

I did begin leveling it before they changed the way skilling up archeology worked (points from digging only until 50?75? and a mandatory amount of points from solves), but it wasn't immediately at launch; after I had leveled a couple guys to 85. Probably late December, but I don't really remember. So depending on when that change was patched in, it may still be relevant. But I don't honestly know.