1. #16321
    Quote Originally Posted by Elim Garak View Post
    Nope, he only missed a couple of first shots on purpose.
    The shot before the last one he missed not on purpose as can be seen by his serious face when he made it as Rickon was real close to Jon (who was riding fast). This miss was emphasized by the way it was shown, it was a close call. The kill shot is not even shown - we see only result.


    Why? It's an arrow which is in flight - it cannot track you, so you just side step and it misses. No need to change direction entirely, not to mention inadvisable.
    That would take a decent amount of attention, because the flight time of the arrow is going to be about a second, tops.

  2. #16322
    Quote Originally Posted by Wilderness View Post


    You don't have to be trained to not want to die. You do have to be trained to understand the best ways to not die in various situations - there is no natural human instinct that by the age of 12 most/all people put into this situation would know to vary your speed, zig zag randomly, keep looking back and forth, etc. That's not something born into anyone.
    No, but it is something someone who has watched military training, and perhaps even received a bit, their entire life would know. The Stark children fall into that category, especially the boys. We saw evidence of them training in the realm of archery in episode 1...

  3. #16323
    Quote Originally Posted by Butler Log View Post
    That would take a decent amount of attention, because the flight time of the arrow is going to be about a second, tops.
    Sure, and in case of Rickon was not possible at all, because he couldn't see the shot even if he looked at Ramsey loosing it - because distance, running and background of people.

    Rickon did everything right, Ramsey was just prepared and it was his game.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas82 View Post
    No, but it is something someone who has watched military training, and perhaps even received a bit, their entire life would know. The Stark children fall into that category, especially the boys. We saw evidence of them training in the realm of archery in episode 1...
    Considering that "military" wear armor and heavy metal sticks, the best defense from arrows is a shield (running in a straight line) and not running in zig-zags, exhausting yourself. I guess they were taught exactly that if they were taught that is.
    All right, gentlemen, let's review. The year is 2020 - that's two-zero-two-zero, as in the 21st Century's perfect vision - and I am sorry to say the world has become a pussy-whipped, Brady Bunch version of itself, run by a bunch of robed sissies.

  4. #16324
    Quote Originally Posted by Butler Log View Post
    That would take a decent amount of attention, because the flight time of the arrow is going to be about a second, tops.
    at 300 yards it takes roughly 5 seconds to hit and this is with the bows used today.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Et23I9zneqk Video with 100, 200 and 300 yards. I'm told 140m takes about 4 seconds with a long bow.

  5. #16325
    Quote Originally Posted by Elim Garak View Post
    Considering that "military" wear armor and heavy metal sticks, the best defense from arrows is a shield (running in a straight line) and not running in zig-zags, exhausting yourself. I guess they were taught exactly that if they were taught that is.
    Not all military wear armor and not all military carry shields. Not to mention evasion tactics are especially important for a young lord of the realm.

  6. #16326
    Quote Originally Posted by Butler Log View Post
    That would take a decent amount of attention, because the flight time of the arrow is going to be about a second, tops.
    Eh, if we assume his longbow is firing an arrow at 200fps (which is a pretty generous figure), Rickon is 100 yards away, and the arrow has to arc fairly high, it would be a few seconds at least.

    From the looks of the scene though, he may have been even further away. I mean, he looked like he was far, FAR away from Ramsay in that scene.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Jotaux View Post
    I'm told 140m takes about 4 seconds with a long bow.
    That sounds about right.

  7. #16327
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jotaux View Post
    at 300 yards it takes roughly 5 seconds to hit and this is with the bows used today.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Et23I9zneqk Video with 100, 200 and 300 yards. I'm told 140m takes about 4 seconds with a long bow.
    Yeah, not sure where the 1 second tops is coming from. Volleys were visible for some time. It was an effective psychological tactic as well as militarily powerful.

    So no, Elim, with his head on a swivel he'd have had time to see a shot was made. And why he wouldn't "just barely" dodge as opposed to change direction entirely is evident both in terms of efficacy/statistics as well as standard instinctive psychology. You don't make it a bare miss. You make sure.

  8. #16328
    "Should" Rikon have Zig-Zagged? Yes, why not. Probably wouldn't have helped in the end but whatever. Does it make sense that he did not? Absolutely.

    How many people here have been in a situation where their life was in danger?
    (Raises hand)

    How many people have actually had someone trying to kill them?
    (Raises hand)


    If you have been in a similar situation (as close as we can get in the modern era) You learn one thing that outsiders always fail to grasp. Hindsight is a motherfucker. Couch quarterbacks will tell you all day what you should have done after they watched the situation unfold. It's so simple for them to say "Hey mate, should have zig zagged." Just like it's easy to tell a rape victim "hey girl, should have yelled for help. Or screamed Fire instead of Rape." Just like telling that guy who got shot "Hey man, should have zig zagged." Weird how people IRL fail to zig zag so much? You'd think this would be common knowledge and easy to call back on and execute when your fight or flight instinct kicks in?


    In the military, we train a lot. But here is the thing people don't see a lot. When you are doing individual level training, the goal isn't to make you "better" as in more accurate with shots or what have you. The goal is to have you do something so much that your body will just react naturally without input from your brain.

    But Tempguy? Why do that when you can just train to zig-zag and shit?

    Cause when shit hits the fan and your senses go crazy you will most likely not be in a proper state of mind and able to think clearly/quick enough.


    Also, Rikon ran far as fuck. Like, really fucking far. At a dead sprint (unless you think he was taking his time). He was most likely exhausted. And zig zagging would have just made him even more tired, as well as make it take even longer to reach Jon. In fact, You could easily see Ramsay's experience with scaring him and waiting for him to finally think he is almost free, and already dog tired, before killing him. Even if the kid zig zagged, it would have ended the same. When he is like 50 meters from Jon, and so tired, he would stop, and Ramsay would know that and be ready.

    How would Ramsay know Tempguy? You can't predict how someone would act.

    Um, Ramsay hunts people. After you do something enough times, yeah, you start to see patterns in human nature and will be able to predict what they will do. It's like lying to your mom as a kid. You think this lie is rock solid, meanwhile she has seen it hundreds of times already and already know's the deal.

    Any way you slice it, the kid was a goner. Zig zagging may work, if he had only a short distance to go, had a strong enough mind to ignore his instincts, and Ramsay was a poor shot.
    Last edited by Tempguy; 2016-06-24 at 09:28 PM.

  9. #16329
    Enter the math expert to break down the distance and size of the field Rickon was running on, the torque and angle of the arrow as it left the bow and its expected flight path travel time. Then add in variables like wind resistances and dew in the cold air. Ty.

  10. #16330
    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas82 View Post
    Not all military wear armor and not all military carry shields. Not to mention evasion tactics are especially important for a young lord of the realm.
    Rickon also didn't have a shield

  11. #16331
    Quote Originally Posted by RobertoCarlos View Post
    Enter the math expert to break down the distance and size of the field Rickon was running on, the torque and angle of the arrow as it left the bow and its expected flight path travel time. Then add in variables like wind resistances and dew in the cold air. Ty.
    It would be interesting to "measure" just how far away from Ramsay he was. Because it looked SO far.

    Actually landing an accurate longbow shot at that range - even on someone moving in a straight line - is no joke.

  12. #16332
    Ramsay has been shown as a great marksman.

    No idea how or why because he grew up at a farm without a father ( shouldn't he be emaciated??? ) but whatever.

  13. #16333
    Quote Originally Posted by Bovinity Divinity View Post
    It would be interesting to "measure" just how far away from Ramsay he was. Because it looked SO far.

    Actually landing an accurate longbow shot at that range - even on someone moving in a straight line - is no joke.
    Oh absolutely. Its still incredibly difficult to this day to hit a target even with a compound bow.

    But its been established in game of thrones world Ramsey is a top tier bowman because of all his time hunting people in the woods with a bow. So its consistent with the internal rules of the show so its fine with me. Aryas physical movements after massive damage are not fine with me. I thought humans in the show were still human.

    It was even a stretch she survived the stabbing and didnt die to infection/blood loss. But whatever milk of the poppy in all that...

  14. #16334
    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas82 View Post
    Not all military wear armor and not all military carry shields. Not to mention evasion tactics are especially important for a young lord of the realm.
    All lords wear armor. You don't evade arrows, you block them. Because in a real combat situation there will be many enemy archers shooting at you, you cannot evade every arrow.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sooba View Post
    Yeah, not sure where the 1 second tops is coming from. Volleys were visible for some time. It was an effective psychological tactic as well as militarily powerful.

    So no, Elim, with his head on a swivel he'd have had time to see a shot was made.
    nope. it's not about the time. it's about fucking visual capability. He couldn't have seen the shot being made from that distance.
    All right, gentlemen, let's review. The year is 2020 - that's two-zero-two-zero, as in the 21st Century's perfect vision - and I am sorry to say the world has become a pussy-whipped, Brady Bunch version of itself, run by a bunch of robed sissies.

  15. #16335
    for all the people who said rick should have zizzagged

    https://youtu.be/-U_IRXhodds?t=114

  16. #16336
    Quote Originally Posted by Butler Log View Post
    Rickon also didn't have a shield
    He had Jon to whom he ran. If anything he could've hid behind the horse.
    All right, gentlemen, let's review. The year is 2020 - that's two-zero-two-zero, as in the 21st Century's perfect vision - and I am sorry to say the world has become a pussy-whipped, Brady Bunch version of itself, run by a bunch of robed sissies.

  17. #16337
    Quote Originally Posted by Leyre View Post
    for all the people who said rick should have zizzagged

    https://youtu.be/-U_IRXhodds?t=114
    Rickon should have.....hid in a clothing store?

  18. #16338
    Quote Originally Posted by Bovinity Divinity View Post
    Rickon should have.....hid in a clothing store?
    Damn right he should have

  19. #16339
    Quote Originally Posted by RobertoCarlos View Post
    Oh absolutely. Its still incredibly difficult to this day to hit a target even with a compound bow.

    But its been established in game of thrones world Ramsey is a top tier bowman because of all his time hunting people in the woods with a bow. So its consistent with the internal rules of the show so its fine with me. Aryas physical movements after massive damage are not fine with me. I thought humans in the show were still human.

    It was even a stretch she survived the stabbing and didnt die to infection/blood loss. But whatever milk of the poppy in all that...
    Waifenator- 1000 should have established the Faceless men are machines.

    Arya is basically that dude from Terminator Salvation. She only thinks she is human.

  20. #16340
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas82 View Post
    No, but it is something someone who has watched military training, and perhaps even received a bit, their entire life would know. The Stark children fall into that category, especially the boys. We saw evidence of them training in the realm of archery in episode 1...
    Yes, they've obviously been around some military training, but not that much, especially Rickon. He's not anything near a warrior or combat veteran and the little things he'd have started learning as a younger boy are not going to prepare him to think strategically and quickly in that situation. He's just a scared boy.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sooba View Post
    The smart archer would. And I think Ramsay would be smart. You wouldn't really have to locate the arrow in the air though. At least, assuming poor / no training you wouldnt. You would simply change direction somewhat under the assumption he was aiming at you. At that point, the bowman would have to gauge not only wind conditions and distance and lie, but also try and guess where you're going to go. His chance of hitting would be so low as to be laughable.
    Then it has to come back to being unpredictable again, which requires even more clear thinking in the moment because if you operate on instinct you're going to have a pattern to how you move. If you have a pattern its no better than running straight because the archer can still lead where he knows you'll be.

    The chances of Ramsay hitting him like he did were still pretty low outside of the plot needing it to happen. It was pretty far shot based on the ground that had been covered, and sniper-like accuracy with arrows on a battlefield are an incredible degree of difficulty. Ramsay's lackadaisical and casual approach fits his character toying with people perfectly, but to actually have it play out like it did and have him hit that shot is more unbelievable than anything involving Rickon.

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