2011- 2013 MMO Prediction

[Whyhello]

I think people under-estimate how many players SWTOR will draw who HAVEN'T played an mmo before. I'm not so sure it will make a huge dent in WoW, I think the enormous amount of Star Wars fans that have been created over the past 30 years will be drawn to it.

They just need to do a good job advertising it and it could really blow up. And if they back it up with solid game play (as it looks to be so far), it could REALLY blow up.

[ManiaCCC]

I think people under-estimate how many players SWTOR will draw who HAVEN'T played an mmo before. I'm not so sure it will make a huge dent in WoW, I think the enormous amount of Star Wars fans that have been created over the past 30 years will be drawn to it.

They just need to do a good job advertising it and it could really blow up. And if they back it up with solid game play (as it looks to be so far), it could REALLY blow up.

You have to understand most of the Star Wars fan who are not already MMORPG geeks will be playing SWTOR as singleplayer game...so they wont be long term subscribers.

Of course, Star Wars have potential to increase player base in MMORPG market..just because it's Star Wars universe.. But it wont be all that sudden. If it will happen, it will be over time. And while it can bring let's say 1-2 million new player into market..it's not really that huge number. Especially when some part of these new player will join other games .

But if something have real potential to bring HUGE amount of new players into MMO market, is game which will offer really great, polished and casual friendly experience from other genres .. like FPS or RTS... And I think Blizzard know it and Titan will be trying something like that.

[Verbatim]

WoW drops to 7.5M subscribers
GW2 sells 7M copies (slow build)
SWTOR builds 6M subscribers before relatively quickly dropping to 4.5-5M and stabilizing around that point for its lifetime.

and finally... a Mass Effect MMO is announced to be in development.

Thoughts?

"Thoughts?" Well..

You just managed to perfectly summarize the collective suspicions that similar posters before you, have been speculating for the past 3-4 months. Apart from that, I doubt it's correct.

Tera and Titan are both left unaccounted for, not to mention that.. While I realize GW2 has a solid fanbase, 7 mill. is pushing the optimism a bit. I'm not to say wether you're a fanboy or not, but being a neutral party myself, I dare say that it won't go quite as well, quite as fast.

[Lusid]

its funny to see people judge/predict "Titan" when we have absolutely NO information regarding its graphics, gameplay style, characters, story.
only thing we got is it's blizzard upcoming next-gen MMO and alot of speculation surrounding it.

My Opinions

WoW won't fade away fast
SWTOR will be successful but i don't think it'll surpass WoW
GW2 & WAR i think it'll cause a lot of shifts in MMO populations but i don't see it holding those players that long

[Sinnyil]

The whole subscription thing for GW2 is just semantics. You know he meant active players.

[Pantelija]

I think I'll have a go at this then =D, going up to 2015:

End of 2011:

Some of WoW's subs have dropped to play some of the newer MMOs - 9.5million subs
With the release of GW2, SWTOR and Tera, Rift is no longer the only alternative to WoW, subs drop to under 1million
SWTOR had a strong launch with around 4 million people trying it out, but after a month or two 1.5 million subs stayed.
GW2 starts with one million subs and hits the 1.5million mark, bringing it level with SWTOR
Tera starts off small with only around half a million subscribers, but the subs gradually grow

2012:

The novelty of some of the new MMOs wear off, WoW at 11 million subs.
Rift is now at half a million subs, and those numbers remain persistent throughout the year.
SWTOR is down to 1 million subs as people return to WoW or decide to see some of the other newer MMOs
GW2 starts getting more popular and hits 2 million subscribers
Tera is now level with GW2 at 2 million subscribers

2013:

An expansion was released in december 2012, it involves going to Argus and defeating the legion. Most of WoW's subscribers stay knowing they might as well make the most of what they predict to be the last expansion, but not much new people join as there's plenty more MMOs out there by now. 11million subs.
Rift's first expansion has been released. Players return, and more players are attracted to the game, and not before long Rift's at 1 million subs.
SWTOR now has under a million subs. BioWare decides a whole new game is needed as SWTOR was originally too similar to WoW. This isn't a Mass Effect or Dragon Age MMO, it's a completely new franchise.
GW2 and Tera are both at around 3.5 million, both taking subs from SWTOR players who've left the game.

2014:

WoW nears it's final content patch, but a lot of players aren't sticking to their plans of just staying to the final expansion as the game is extremely outdated. Subs drop back down to 9 million.
Rift first expansion was a success for the the first half of the year, getting the game up to 2 million subs. But in the second half of the year, it's too much of the same and subs drop back down to 1 million.
Titan is now out, and it's off to a strong start with 5million subs!
SWTOR has some pretty pathetic content patches to keep the player base going until the new MMO. But it seems BioWare won't have an MMO until their new one is released, as SWTOR is becoming unpopular, and soon has little subs. Bioware make it f2p and don't touch the game. Now that all the SWTOR devs transfer to the new MMO, things will happen a lot quicker.
GW2 goes down to 3 million subs and stays that way all year
Tera is down to 2 million subs. It almost has no Korean players, so the devs are losing faith in the game.

2015:

After the final content patch, WoW's subs moved to Titan and other MMOs. There are only about 1 million players left. The game is now f2p. By the end of the year, WoW is dead. WoW was not killed by any game in particular, it was just finished when Blizzard chose to finish it.
Rift is now back down to how it was before the first expansion. Later in the year, Trion announce they don't have the funds for a new expansion. They say they'll most likely make single player games, and when they have the money, they'll start developing a Rift 2.
Titan is growing quickly, especially now a lot of WoW's subscribers have stuck with Blizzard and went to Titan. 8.5 million subs already.
SWTOR basically dead. Bioware says their new MMO will probably be released late 2017.
GW2 is having a content filled expansion this year with the most content an MMO expansion has ever seen. People get excited for this, and the subs raise to 6 million three months into the expansion.
With no Korean subs, Tera is abandoned by the devs. The 2 million remaining subs are enjoying f2p content, but after a few months they get bored of the game without patches or updates and they leave

Sorry but this is the most stupid post i have read in a while on Mmo champ , first of all WoW doesnt have 12 mil subs right now its 2.6 mil subs playing Cata , second SWTOR is looking to be one of the best mmo's out there with GW2 right behind it following it up and u have no idea how Tera or Rift will do in the future.

And i rarely use this term aswell but u are Blizzard fanboy , once again i apologize but i had to say that because that post is beyond stupid

[Puremallace]

WoW: 9-10million+

SWToR: Good game with a base crowd...ONLY ISSUE WILL BE: Updates need to be fast. no excuses for delays. If good updates I can see 2-3mil easy.

GW2: Lots of promises and some ground breaking stuff, but a B2P will not kill WoW or really dent it UNLESS and this is the big UNLESS the content is CONSTANT. <---If they come through on a lot of stuff I can see 4-5mil very very easily

Rift is literally proving every month that unless that dynamic stuff stays new people just start camping out in cities. If Rift stays constant I see 1-2mil growing at a slow steady pace.

[Keller]

till end of 2011:

WoW: Many of the people who're looking for something new quit. Down to 9.0mil.
Guild Wars 2 Still in development. The beta testers are releasing information, it's good and makes people want the game more and more.
SWTOR Community starts big and maintains it's players.
B&S: Big in korea. the West Hates it with a burning passion.
Rift: Keeps getting better and better , listening to the community. Maintains it's current subs, but stops attracting more and loses a very small portion to ToR.
TERA: Gets LARGER and LARGER but has problems keeping it up, the developers try to stick with the grindy korean standards and the clifflike learning curve. People hate the grind and ultimately stay subbed while waiting for guildwars 2. 500k grows steadily into 1m.


2012
WoW: MAJOR drop due to SWTOR taking many guilds with it. Down to 6mil|
Guildwars2 : Old wow supporters start talking about it like it's the best thing ever ( TB; G4; OMFGcata ) Takes off like an unstable rocket, Servers get massacred. Some players dont play it cause they cant be arsed to login. starts off with 3mil and normalizes to 2.5mil.
SWTOR: Big content patches, takes many players from wow, but the community is full of horrible people. 4.5 subs.
Tera: The devs get over the grind but there's lack of intrest due to other MMOs . Many of the players who intended to leave stay. 1.5mil till the year end.
Rift: Abandoned by many players, 500k left, and declining every day.
B&S: More subs then everything else. Massive following in china. Gold farmers can be legaly employed.

2013:
WoW: Keeps it steady, listening to the community for once, even including old expansion servers, but the cat is out of the bag, nobody gives a damn.
GW2: First expansion: Bumps the players up to 3.5 mil, getting more and more popular, SWTOR players starting to migrate to GW2.
SWTOR: Small decline, Still going strong with 4.3mil.
Tera: Loses subs, slowly.
Rift: Ignored. dies due to not being profitable anymore.
B&S:Turns into an online extremist capitalist system with every decent player having a slave gold farmer.
TSW: Released, Ignored due to being too boring, but it stirs many subs from the casual market with it's customisation systems.

2014:
WoW: Changes business model to P2P with a sub fee and all the games are free. Massively ignored.
Codename Titan: Delayed with no forseeable release date.
GW2: Reaches it's peak , more popular than cod.
SWToR: Loses half of it's subscribers. Bioware gets the EA boner bigtime.
Tera : Sequel in development, Support has sucked, subs halved.
B&S Ignored for the next big thing. The next big thing features realistic hair!!
TSW: Nothing big yet, but it keeps growing at a steady pace.

2015
Titan: Blizzard state it's going to be out when it's ready. No forseeable future.
GW2 gets less attention due to a new IP in development.
SWToR: No massive changes.
Tera: Dead
TSW: Grows to have a playerbase similar to that of swtor during it's peak, keeps growing.






2019:
Codename titan : Renamed to "The World" Uses a Brain interface with full body movement.

2021: Titan: released. turns all players into zombies, a select few are chosen as kotick's personal army.


2025: Full-Scale Biologic Warfare between google and Activision Blizzard. Only 5% of earth's population survives.

[bohapjut]

till end of 2011:
2019:
Codename titan : Renamed to "The World" Uses a Brain interface with full body movement.

2019 prediction dot hack

[Keller]

2019 prediction dot hack

Was trying to be subtile.

[doesnotcare]

why was this necrod?

[pandaman]

I don't see WoW dying for at least 10 years now, it's just too huge... it's an absolute incredibly feat by Blizzard.

[doesnotcare]

yeah its a real feat that they achieved 14 mil subs by offering the game in china where there are 3 billion people at rates that are equivalent to pennies in this country.

[btf]

I think I'll have a go at this then =D, going up to 2015:

End of 2011:

Some of WoW's subs have dropped to play some of the newer MMOs - 9.5million subs
With the release of GW2, SWTOR and Tera, Rift is no longer the only alternative to WoW, subs drop to under 1million
SWTOR had a strong launch with around 4 million people trying it out, but after a month or two 1.5 million subs stayed.
GW2 starts with one million subs and hits the 1.5million mark, bringing it level with SWTOR
Tera starts off small with only around half a million subscribers, but the subs gradually grow

2012:

The novelty of some of the new MMOs wear off, WoW at 11 million subs.
Rift is now at half a million subs, and those numbers remain persistent throughout the year.
SWTOR is down to 1 million subs as people return to WoW or decide to see some of the other newer MMOs
GW2 starts getting more popular and hits 2 million subscribers
Tera is now level with GW2 at 2 million subscribers

2013:

An expansion was released in december 2012, it involves going to Argus and defeating the legion. Most of WoW's subscribers stay knowing they might as well make the most of what they predict to be the last expansion, but not much new people join as there's plenty more MMOs out there by now. 11million subs.
Rift's first expansion has been released. Players return, and more players are attracted to the game, and not before long Rift's at 1 million subs.
SWTOR now has under a million subs. BioWare decides a whole new game is needed as SWTOR was originally too similar to WoW. This isn't a Mass Effect or Dragon Age MMO, it's a completely new franchise.
GW2 and Tera are both at around 3.5 million, both taking subs from SWTOR players who've left the game.

2014:

WoW nears it's final content patch, but a lot of players aren't sticking to their plans of just staying to the final expansion as the game is extremely outdated. Subs drop back down to 9 million.
Rift first expansion was a success for the the first half of the year, getting the game up to 2 million subs. But in the second half of the year, it's too much of the same and subs drop back down to 1 million.
Titan is now out, and it's off to a strong start with 5million subs!
SWTOR has some pretty pathetic content patches to keep the player base going until the new MMO. But it seems BioWare won't have an MMO until their new one is released, as SWTOR is becoming unpopular, and soon has little subs. Bioware make it f2p and don't touch the game. Now that all the SWTOR devs transfer to the new MMO, things will happen a lot quicker.
GW2 goes down to 3 million subs and stays that way all year
Tera is down to 2 million subs. It almost has no Korean players, so the devs are losing faith in the game.

2015:

After the final content patch, WoW's subs moved to Titan and other MMOs. There are only about 1 million players left. The game is now f2p. By the end of the year, WoW is dead. WoW was not killed by any game in particular, it was just finished when Blizzard chose to finish it.
Rift is now back down to how it was before the first expansion. Later in the year, Trion announce they don't have the funds for a new expansion. They say they'll most likely make single player games, and when they have the money, they'll start developing a Rift 2.
Titan is growing quickly, especially now a lot of WoW's subscribers have stuck with Blizzard and went to Titan. 8.5 million subs already.
SWTOR basically dead. Bioware says their new MMO will probably be released late 2017.
GW2 is having a content filled expansion this year with the most content an MMO expansion has ever seen. People get excited for this, and the subs raise to 6 million three months into the expansion.
With no Korean subs, Tera is abandoned by the devs. The 2 million remaining subs are enjoying f2p content, but after a few months they get bored of the game without patches or updates and they leave

i take it you dont like SW:TOR then,,,,,:-0

[Deleted]

2011
- AoC will gain some more players due to the F2P model
- ArcheAge will be released. It's going get hyped a lot. It will reach less than 1 Million active subscribers.
- RIFT will launch a major content patch. Its subscriber base will stagnate at circa 1 Million players.
- TERA will be hyped. It's going to have about 2 Million subscribers shortly after release. Lots of player will leave soon because of missing Westernization of the game.
- TITAN will be announced at BlizzCon 2011. It's going to catch our attention. We're only going to see a small trailer which features a post-apocalyptic setting and some story elements. We're just going to know a little bit more about TITAN than we know now.
- WAR will lose more and more subscribers.
- WoW drops to 10 Million subscribers due to the release of Diablo 3. WoW premium services will be announced at BlizzCon 2011.

2012
- ArcheAge will stagnate at 900.000 subscribers.
- We're going to recieve a ton of information on Fallout Online. It's going to start it's Closed Beta. It's going to be a huge disappointment.
- GW2 will be launched. About 4 Million copies will be sold.
- RIFT will release an expansion set, wich will help to keep its subscribers.
- SWTOR will be launched. It's going to flop.
- TERA will lose a lot subscribers because of missing botting and exploting protection.
- We are going to get a lot of information on Blizzard's TITAN.
- WAR will go F2P.
- WAR 40k Closed Beta starts.
- A new expansion set for WoW will be announced at BlizzCon 2012. The last big content patch of WoW 4.x will reach us. WoW will regain some of its subscribers due to the innovative Deathwing raid instance.

2013
- ArcheAge will lose some subscribers. Not many people will be playing this game anymore.
- Fallout Online will be launched. Its servers will be shut down some months after release. Interplay will go bankrupt.
- GW2 will reach a solid player base of circa 2 Million.
- Many RIFT players will leave the game. It's going to have about 400.000 subscribers.
- SWTOR will go F2P.
- TERA will lose most of its players.
- We're going to recieve a lot of information on TITAN.
- WAR 40k will be released. It's going to be a disappointment.
- WoW will release a new expansion set. Some players will come back. WoW drops to 8 Million subscribers.

[bohapjut]

pretty critical on SWTOR

[Blznsmri]

pretty critical on SWTOR

The greater appeal, the greater the criticism.

[Daviddishere]

Let's be realistic here.

2012
WoW numbers continue to decline until the next expansion is released and sets another record for fastest selling ever
Rift falls under 300k (I don't know how many they have now, they've only release the 1 million SOLD number from what I've heard)
GW2 2 million sales
SW:TOR 2 million sales (250k subs by the end of the year)
Tera: lol Less than 150k sales, complete flop
Titan info released

2013
WoW declining again, they can't keep that number forever
GW2 sales continue rising, up to 3 mil by the end of the year
Rift, all but dead
SW:TOR, maintaining at 150k

2014
WoW, another expansion, this time not setting sales records, population declining
Titan released, 5 million subscribers by the end of the year
GW2 steady
SW, under 75k

2015
WoW numbers declining under 7.5 mil
Titan over 7.5 mil
GW falling off
SW all but dead

[moaradin]

Oh god this thread again.. I've never been more appalled by opinions in my life.

[Maluko]

Every SW game will fail like any other SW game released to the date...