Most MMO subs and users in chart

[Drakhar]

Unsure about the accuracy, but holy shit at the trends of AoC and Warhammer.... and Rift following the same completely expected line lawl

I doubt we'll ever see a subscription game plateau as high as WoW did for as long as WoW did ever again.

I don't just doubt, I'm 100% convinced it will never happen again.

[Deleted]

I doubt all of China's subs are gold farms, but I do remember back when WotLK was released Blizzard had a contract issue with their provider in China. That was back when WoW was at 10mil subs and the contract was said to affect over 4mil of them. So roughly half of WoW's subs are in China which most of the other MMOs are not released in.

Yeah. You can pretty much see this on another chart on their site (I like charts..)
Basically wow west is EU+NA combined and East is Asia (includes more countries than china)

[0wn3d]

I think Blizzard needs to be careful. A lot of people seem to still be subscribed to WoW but playing less and less. That's usually the big step before quitting entirely. Cata simply came up short.

Also, they've been working pretty hard to get new subscribers to make up for the people quitting, but that's a well you can only go to for so long before it dries up too.

WoW is not dying, but I think it is ripe for a potentially hard and fast fall once another very good MMO comes out. SWTOR will undoubtedly make a sizable dent in subs, and if GW2 lives up to any of its promise I wouldn't be surprised if WoW loses 1/3 to 1/2 of it's subs/active players by this time next year. The next expansion will boost numbers again, but unless there are some big and compelling changes to the game I think that boost will only be temporary again.

Even in my worst case scenario WoW will still have 5-6 million players this time next year so again it's not dying. However, losing half the population will definitely be noticeable. People have already noticed the effects of the population dip with relatively minor losses.

Honestly, SW:TOR might have a slightly stronger effect than Rift did, but not much more, and those players will eventually come back. SW:TOR is basically another WoW clone like Rift was, but GW2 is the MMO that has a chance to shake things up. The thing about GW2 though is its F2P, so I don't think people playing GW2 necessarily means less WoW subs. From my perspective, I'm fine with paying for one subscription MMO at a time, so I'll be subbed to WoW and play GW2 at the same time.

Also, I think 4.3 and the next expansion will see some noticeable rises in the amount of subs. Specifically, Blizzard gets to focus a lot more on the end game again next expansion. Many people have stopped playing because they feel like there is nothing to do, and a lot of that has to do with much of Blizzard's effort going into the 1-60 zones, which was a necessary revamp.

[jearle]

Honestly, SW:TOR might have a slightly stronger effect than Rift did, but not much more, and those players will eventually come back. SW:TOR is basically another WoW clone like Rift was, but GW2 is the MMO that has a chance to shake things up. The thing about GW2 though is its F2P, so I don't think people playing GW2 necessarily means less WoW subs. From my perspective, I'm fine with paying for one subscription MMO at a time, so I'll be subbed to WoW and play GW2 at the same time.

Also, I think 4.3 and the next expansion will see some noticeable rises in the amount of subs. Specifically, Blizzard gets to focus a lot more on the end game again next expansion. Many people have stopped playing because they feel like there is nothing to do, and a lot of that has to do with much of Blizzard's effort going into the 1-60 zones, which was a necessary revamp.

Except that TOR is a Star Wars game, and fans of the IP will stick around and play it if its even remotely decent and I'm not even going to touch another ludicrous WoW clone comment (#14,233,322 btw).

Rift isn't a bad game and is still doing decent, putting out new content at a very good pace, for a game with 0 backstory and lore to come out of the blue, this is good.

GW2 will be a great game, for that i have no doubt but its F2P and doesn't fall into this discussion, and F2P scares me when talking about content patches. But will surely be worth the money.

Wow is a great game, just really stale and they took the sense of wonder out of it. Sitting around the Org/SW (which they herded players into with Cata) and queuing for dungeons is not awesome, its boring and stagnant. 4.3 wont solve that, it will be 3? more 5 mans and a new raid, that will get old after 3weeks.

WoW is in a decline, they will continue losing subs to other games, however they will still release content albeit at a slower pace.

People still pay 15 bucks a month to play Everquest, which is 12 years old, a relic in the age of MMOs, which means that people will be paying 15 bucks a month for WoW for a long long time.

Will be interesting to see what Titan is all about, they are obviously going to push alot of development to that game.

[ptwonline]

Honestly, SW:TOR might have a slightly stronger effect than Rift did, but not much more, and those players will eventually come back. SW:TOR is basically another WoW clone like Rift was, but GW2 is the MMO that has a chance to shake things up. The thing about GW2 though is its F2P, so I don't think people playing GW2 necessarily means less WoW subs. From my perspective, I'm fine with paying for one subscription MMO at a time, so I'll be subbed to WoW and play GW2 at the same time.

Also, I think 4.3 and the next expansion will see some noticeable rises in the amount of subs. Specifically, Blizzard gets to focus a lot more on the end game again next expansion. Many people have stopped playing because they feel like there is nothing to do, and a lot of that has to do with much of Blizzard's effort going into the 1-60 zones, which was a necessary revamp.

I do think activity (and subs) will rise for 4.3 because it is the last patch in the expansion. Just goes to show you a big problem in the Blizzard model: people don't want to stick around for middle tiers because they deem it as mostly useless (since the gear is so transient and the story so peripheral to the main story).

However, I disagree about the relative effect of SWTOR and GW2. SW/Bioware/KOTOR has a much more popular IP and history than GW, plus people may be getting kind of tired of the old swords and sorcery thing. Furthermore, it looks like SWTOR is shaping up to be a much better player experience than WoW. I have no idea what the Chinese market and fanbase is like, but with WoW's softening popularity in NA/EU and with the very strong pre-orders for SWTOR, I would not be surprised at all if WoW loses 1 million of it's NA/EU subs in the first couple of months of SWTOR. Some will come back, but it looks like SWTOR is a good enough game that it will be like WoW was, and continue to grow and suck other games dry of subscribers.

SWTOR looks like it could reach well over million pre-orders, and 2-3 million NA/EU subs in the opening months looks plausible. I expect that number to continue to grow. Guild Wars 2? In NA/EU at least I would be surprised if it sustains more than 500K, although if Bioware is too slow to release new content for SWTOR then the number could be higher.

[Deleted]

People use this site a good bit but anyone who takes this as gospel never read the disclaimer...

'Dispite being carefull and doing the necessary research, MMOData.net cannot guarantee the validity of the information found here as it is based on various sources which could be incomplete, inaccurate or otherwise unreliable. Furthermore, all estimates are the opinion of MMOData.net and should be treated as such'

Since the chart is Subs and Active accounts then i dont see why GW aint on it. I know he would have worded it that way to add in all the pay to play account that make up upto a third of Wows numbers. So free to play games should really be on it as they are still Active accounts.

[Toxigen]

Ah, that chart brings tears of nostalgia back to my Asheron's Call days from early 2000 to 2005.

I experienced the rise and fall of the best MMO ever made.

[zaoly]

Since the chart is Subs and Active accounts then i dont see why GW aint on it. I know he would have worded it that way to add in all the pay to play account that make up upto a third of Wows numbers. So free to play games should really be on it as they are still Active accounts.

Like few people already pointed out earlier in the thread, GW is not a subscription based game. If you want the chart to list all the active F2P MMO's out there, the charts would be messy and uninformative. GW is not the most active of F2P nor the most successful, should Farmville be listed? Should Maple Story be listed? They are both irrelevant to the point the data is trying to convey, just like GW.

From all the charts, first thing comes to mind is that newer MMO's are peaking subscriptions at such a rapid rate then suddenly drop, great example is Rift. Second is that subscription based games are in a slight decline since 2010. This is showed by the article earlier poster mentioned. I would be very much interested in reading the article if I can find it.

[Deleted]

They are both irrelevant to the point the data is trying to convey, just like GW.

The point is the whole chart is irrelevant data. Its based on guess work and unreliable sources. He has Rift jumping in at 600k. No doubt from all the garbage about how wow lost 600k and people assumed they went to Rift. We call all agree that was prolly wrong. Now he has Rift down to about 450k when the last time Trion talked about subs they said..

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/3...ions_Reid.php/

'He first turned to Rift, the company's first release from March, which he explained now has over one million customers and is the "second largest MMO in the West."

Unless Trion are liars or use the same ambiguity in customers as Blizzard use for subscriber and this guys wonky 'sources which could be incomplete, inaccurate or otherwise unreliable' are right. Who really knows but it looks like the guy uses a Magic 8 ball for his info and said info should be treated with scepticism.

[Drakhar]

I do think activity (and subs) will rise for 4.3 because it is the last patch in the expansion. Just goes to show you a big problem in the Blizzard model: people don't want to stick around for middle tiers because they deem it as mostly useless (since the gear is so transient and the story so peripheral to the main story).

However, I disagree about the relative effect of SWTOR and GW2. SW/Bioware/KOTOR has a much more popular IP and history than GW, plus people may be getting kind of tired of the old swords and sorcery thing. Furthermore, it looks like SWTOR is shaping up to be a much better player experience than WoW. I have no idea what the Chinese market and fanbase is like, but with WoW's softening popularity in NA/EU and with the very strong pre-orders for SWTOR, I would not be surprised at all if WoW loses 1 million of it's NA/EU subs in the first couple of months of SWTOR. Some will come back, but it looks like SWTOR is a good enough game that it will be like WoW was, and continue to grow and suck other games dry of subscribers.

SWTOR looks like it could reach well over million pre-orders, and 2-3 million NA/EU subs in the opening months looks plausible. I expect that number to continue to grow. Guild Wars 2? In NA/EU at least I would be surprised if it sustains more than 500K, although if Bioware is too slow to release new content for SWTOR then the number could be higher.

If anyone needs a good laugh, read this post. I literally laughed my ass off so hard, I am now unable to find it. It must be on the floor here somewhere -- some help would be greatly appreciated. I don't even know where to begin, SW:TOR sucking the market dry (hint: WoW already did that) GW2 having a subscription, GW2 selling 500k boxes... Wow. Just, wow.

Every single aspect of these charts is 100% wrong since they have a disclaimer, despite all evidence pointing towards it being accurate. All subsequent discussion is therefore irrelevant, because it shows that my game is dying out like AoC and Warhammer.

Better open your eyes and stop listening to the Trion folks, who have a serious problem with diarrhea of the mouth. You made me LMFAO almost as hard as the above poster with your hint that Blizzard's numbers are somehow ambiguous (despite having a clear criteria) while Trion's aren't (LOLOL WE HAZ 1 BILLION ACCOUNT SIGN UPS WE IZ MORE POPULAR THAN WOW HURRHURR).

[ptwonline]

If anyone needs a good laugh, read this post. I literally laughed my ass off so hard, I am now unable to find it. It must be on the floor here somewhere -- some help would be greatly appreciated.

Oh? Which part? The game already is closing in on half a million pre-orders--in America alone. And not including online sites like Amazon.com. And not including digital downloads. Pre-orders for games also tend to pick up close to their release dates, and SWTOR has not released a date yet. In NA/EU a million total pre-orders is probably a conservative estimate. Since a lot of people don't pre-order and instead pick up the game off retail shelves (and also since it is slated to be a holiday release and thus strong gifting opportunities) I think it could very easily reach 2-3 million NA/EU subs early on.

Two months ago I would have scoffed at those figures. The massive number of pre-orders has changed my mind.

[Deleted]

Better open your eyes and stop listening to the Trion folks, who have a serious problem with diarrhea of the mouth. You made me LMFAO almost as hard as the above poster with your hint that Blizzard's numbers are somehow ambiguous (despite having a clear criteria) while Trion's aren't (LOLOL WE HAZ 1 BILLION ACCOUNT SIGN UPS WE IZ MORE POPULAR THAN WOW HURRHURR).

They claim subscription numbers from people who dont pay a subscription. If you wipe the rabid drool out of your eyes you may notice i said 'Who Knows' about Trions numbers. If you never made up your own quote you might have noticed that.

[Borzo]

Star Wars will do what no game since WOW has done: Get non-MMO players to play a sub-based MMO.

Instead of trying to steal a part of Blizzard's pie, it's gonna make the pie bigger. People who've never played an MMORPG before will be playing SW. People who've never played video games before will be playing Star Wars. That's something that Warhammer and Conan and Rift were never able to accomplish

[jearle]

If anyone needs a good laugh, read this post. I literally laughed my ass off so hard, I am now unable to find it. It must be on the floor here somewhere -- some help would be greatly appreciated. I don't even know where to begin, SW:TOR sucking the market dry (hint: WoW already did that) GW2 having a subscription, GW2 selling 500k boxes... Wow. Just, wow.

I smell a GW2 fanboy................. who got hit with the banhammer.

The thing about sub numbers is you don't really know who to trust and really when it comes down to it. If you log into your server and you see lots of folks, thats cool who gives a shit about the rest really.

People are using sub #s like e-peen, if i enjoy a game, its not cause 10 million other people enjoy it, it is cause I like it.

The bigger the MMO sub wise, the more they cater to whiners in order to maintain subs.

It will be interesting to see the changes in a game like GW2 that has huge amounts of hype surrounding it and is one of the most anticipated games of 2012. They don't need to cater to subscribers and could basically say piss off if they like.

[jearle]

Star Wars will do what no game since WOW has done: Get non-MMO players to play a sub-based MMO.

Instead of trying to steal a part of Blizzard's pie, it's gonna make the pie bigger. People who've never played an MMORPG before will be playing SW. People who've never played video games before will be playing Star Wars. That's something that Warhammer and Conan and Rift were never able to accomplish

Which is why the Blizzard CEO said this in an interview with MCV, Blizzard cofounder Frank Pearce said, "[The Old Republic] is a game that has an opportunity to grow the MMO market if done right and therefore is very important to the industry as a whole, not just EA."

Source
http://au.gamespot.com/news/6304946....p%3Btitle%3B14

[Deleted]

I doubt we'll ever see a subscription game plateau as high as WoW did for as long as WoW did ever again.

Depends. Assume a 10 billion increase in human population + better living standards all round (anyone can afford a computer + internet) and I foresee quite a boom.

[jearle]

No it's not it's b2p (buy to play, there is a significant difference)

Also people familiar with Anet knows that they can deliver frequent content (expansions) they did it very successfully with the first game.
.

My mistake on the acronym, it still doesn't change the fact that its a non subscription game.

GW1 had what 3 xpacs in 7 years? I have much bigger hopes for GW2, I will be playing the game because it looks great and since its B2P you can't beat it.

---------- Post added 2011-09-19 at 05:24 PM ----------

Depends. Assume a 10 billion increase in human population + better living standards all round (anyone can afford a computer + internet) and I foresee quite a boom.

Agreed 12 million subs that wow had will be an absolute joke within the next 10 years.

It wouldn't surprise me if a game that could be called an "MMO" breaks 100 million subs in the next decade.

[Deleted]

No DC Universe Online either?

[ptwonline]

Star Wars will do what no game since WOW has done: Get non-MMO players to play a sub-based MMO.

Instead of trying to steal a part of Blizzard's pie, it's gonna make the pie bigger. People who've never played an MMORPG before will be playing SW. People who've never played video games before will be playing Star Wars. That's something that Warhammer and Conan and Rift were never able to accomplish

SWTOR will definitely grow the population of people who are actively playing MMOs. However, I also think it's inevitable that it will steal a lot of players from existing MMOs. The noticeable number of WOW players who went to play Rift proves that and Rift--compared to SWTOR--is relatively minor.

---------- Post added 2011-09-19 at 09:32 PM ----------

Agreed 12 million subs that wow had will be an absolute joke within the next 10 years.

It wouldn't surprise me if a game that could be called an "MMO" breaks 100 million subs in the next decade.

For a premium-MMO? I'm not so sure. While the total market is growing, so are the number of competitors. It's sort of like TV. More people than ever are watching TV, but there are so many channels now that ratings for individual shows are often lower than they would have been in the past.

F2P MMO's tied to popular social media are a different story though.

[jearle]

Not really, it had 3 campaigns (full games) they were all released within one and a half years then they kinda dumped further development to make GW2.

That is not bad at all I suppose, good news is good news.

---------- Post added 2011-09-19 at 05:36 PM ----------

For a premium-MMO? I'm not so sure. While the total market is growing, so are the number of competitors. It's sort of like TV. More people than ever are watching TV, but there are so many channels now that ratings for individual shows are often lower than they would have been in the past.

F2P MMO's tied to popular social media are a different story though.

There are 3 billion people in China alone, with the standard of living increasing there at an increased rate it could come to be. The competition thing is very true though although a game could come along and eclipse its predecessors.