Initial player population numbers

[Smitzelplix]

Hah. Win/win for us right? :P

I was just thinking about this the other day hence the topic. Obviously I wasn't meaning subs to the poster above. Just moreso, how many people are going to flood the servers on initial release. I think it will easily be a million people on launch day/week barring server instability. But I was curious what peoples personal ideas are, about friends/family/guilds who might be coming too. I would love to see this have several million peeps though.

Without a doubt it will see millions of people easily. Arenanet already has a pretty big built in fan base through GW1. Then you got to take into account those people who are planning on leaving traditional MMOs behind to find a more action based MMO that will be looking at GW2 for that fix. Then finally you have the people like myself who are going to be playing GW2 and another MMO side by side.

[AdrianCC100]

It'll probably pull in at least 500,000 players.

[Alatian]

Without a doubt it will see millions of people easily. Arenanet already has a pretty big built in fan base through GW1. Then you got to take into account those people who are planning on leaving traditional MMOs behind to find a more action based MMO that will be looking at GW2 for that fix. Then finally you have the people like myself who are going to be playing GW2 and another MMO side by side.

This is 100% correct. The beauty of Guild Wars 2 is that everyone will at least give it a try, because it's B2P. GW1 sold 6 million copies, when they projected a MAX 500k copies sold. Why? Because WoW became so popular, it brought in millions of new MMO players who were willing to give GW1 a shot. Then, you take in to account that GW2 is much more attractive than its competitors for non-MMO gamers. Most gamers are NOT looking for traditional MMO combat. Most gamers are looking for fast paced, action combat such as Battlefield, TF2, etc. B2P is also the model of most games outside of MMOs. The concept of monthly fees is VERY foreign to non-MMO players. They are used to B2P models.

Finally, almost 7 million people bought GW1. You can argue that some people hated it, and that's fine. But let's say that only 20% of players liked Guild Wars 1 (and that's almost definitely a lot less than actually did like it). That's 1.4 million people lining up to play the sequel. So, we combine the legions of curious MMO players trying the game out, the non-MMO gamers finding a game that has a similar gameplay style/business model to what they're used to, and returning GW1 players, and you have a massive launch.

[Blufossa]

This is 100% correct. The beauty of Guild Wars 2 is that everyone will at least give it a try, because it's B2P. GW1 sold 6 million copies, when they projected a MAX 500k copies sold. Why? Because WoW became so popular, it brought in millions of new MMO players who were willing to give GW1 a shot. Then, you take in to account that GW2 is much more attractive than its competitors for non-MMO gamers. Most gamers are NOT looking for traditional MMO combat. Most gamers are looking for fast paced, action combat such as Battlefield, TF2, etc. B2P is also the model of most games outside of MMOs. The concept of monthly fees is VERY foreign to non-MMO players. They are used to B2P models.

Finally, almost 7 million people bought GW1. You can argue that some people hated it, and that's fine. But let's say that only 20% of players liked Guild Wars 1 (and that's almost definitely a lot less than actually did like it). That's 1.4 million people lining up to play the sequel. So, we combine the legions of curious MMO players trying the game out, the non-MMO gamers finding a game that has a similar gameplay style/business model to what they're used to, and returning GW1 players, and you have a massive launch.

Don't forget that the 6-7 million seen in those lists do include all copies of the game, expansions included.

All the same, $40 x 6,000,000 = $240,000,000.00 (estimate) that they've had to toy with to make GW2 from GW1. Not to mention all the other money from their other games. Hoping they make even half of that from the initial release so we can have at least one content patch or other goodies next year!

[Deyadissa]

Guild wars is notorious for people buying it and playing it for 2 months then quitting and coming back.

Even the players that quit don't regret buying Guild Wars, so I imagine atleast 600k will be bought within the launch date; because they're going to throw that "CLOSED BETA" that you can enter in if you bought the game.

[Orist]

Guild wars is notorious for people buying it and playing it for 2 months then quitting and coming back.

Even the players that quit don't regret buying Guild Wars, so I imagine atleast 600k will be bought within the launch date; because they're going to throw that "CLOSED BETA" that you can enter in if you bought the game.

OT: I love your sig! Sticky and sweet was amazing

[Bluey111]

Rift had over a million after its first month (im pretty sure) so im expecting much more from guild wars

[Deleted]

When compared to previous MMORPG releases, Guild Wars 2 has an enormous advantage as it already has a successful predecessor.

Rift had over a million after its first month (im pretty sure) so im expecting much more from guild wars

I think Rift's peak was at 600k active subscribers, sure they have over 1 million accounts and so on.

[Merendel]

I can easily see GW2 eclipsing a million boxes sold in their first month. A good quarter or so of those may abandon the game fairly quickly because they are too ingrained in the "WoW Style" of MMO but after that we'll probably see a steady rise in population numbers.

[Orist]

I can easily see GW2 eclipsing a million boxes sold in their first month. A good quarter or so of those may abandon the game fairly quickly because they are too ingrained in the "WoW Style" of MMO but after that we'll probably see a steady rise in population numbers.

This is pretty much my feelings as well. Once GW actually gets close to coming out, and the hype builds, and those people start posting on the WoW forums "GW WILL KILL WOW!!" we will get a huge influx of people who want something new. Try it and and go "wtf, my heals are weak" or "My tank dies in 4 hits!" or "Its too freaking hard!" when they dont even know what button you dodge with, they will bail. Then the slow rise and hopefully a very healthy steady population. As I intend to make it my "main" MMO.

[Deyadissa]

I think you are overestimating peoples willingness to buy a game just to try it.

You'd be surprised.


I know a few people who have bought games they haven't even opened in 10 years >.>

[vizzle]

Since there's no sub fee loads of people are going to atleast try it out. I think the numbers are gonna sky rocket at release. And if they need a way to messure the players they can take number of active accounts. (Active within a month or so.)



There's so much wrong in this I don't know where to start...

2. There's no such thing as a tank. It's good that Elementalists have a defencive state.
3. Read above. This is not Vanilla Wow where only Warriors can tank.
4. They said they don't want big player raids (Atleast on release) and want you to stick to 5 mans.
5. The current aggro mechanics are just a placeholder.
6. That's a good thing.
7. Dodge is a nice mechanic wich makes combat more interactive.
8. That's not a bug. They don't want healing to become wack-a-mole like in WoW.

/facepalm

Yeah... read it again.

[Ynna]

I think you are overestimating peoples willingness to buy a game just to try it.

The thing is, with a B2P model, as long as people get about a month, or two month out of it, it was worth their money, since that's around the value you'd get out of any game. So I'd guess people are more willing to try it out, since there's no commitment outside of paying once, just like any other game. Someone who's into RPG's, but never played a MMO might be more willing to pick up Guild Wars 2 than another MMO, since it's price is comparable to a single-player game.

[Deleted]

Actually, I take back what I said earlier about wanting to see less whiners.

As stated in a different post: I would love to see them join, just so ArenaNet gets their money, then they can Q_Q and leave the game.

Sounds like a good idea. There's no sub so they're not losing on inactive accounts!

[Eorayn]

I predict 2 million players in the first week. Then it will eventually drop a little, because people can't let off the WoW mechanics.

[Smitzelplix]

What do you base that on?

There really aren't that many B2P games out there.

And I'm not aware of many people that bought GW1 just to try it out... that's what trials usually are for.

Pretty much anything that is not an MMO can classify as B2P, because that's essentially what you do with single player/multiplayer type games that you can buy for a console and pc, you have to buy the game to play the game and it's a one time fee. And it is true that people usually get about a month's worth out of most non MMO games, at least that's definitely been my first hand experience with it.

[Ynna]

What do you base that on?

There really aren't that many B2P games out there.

And I'm not aware of many people that bought GW1 just to try it out... that's what trials usually are for.

I can't say that will happen for a fact, but it seems a rational way of thinking. When I buy games I look at the price and the hours of enjoyment I'll get out of it. For this reason I'll be more inclined to buy The Elder Scrolls, than Call of Duty. Games generally cost somewhere around €50 or €60 and they give you on average 3 weeks of entertainment. Bethesda games give me a lot more for the same price. Guild Wars 2 will as well. And even if it doesn't, it doesn't feel like I got cheated out of my money, since I'll get at least a couple of weeks out of it, and I can come back when I'm without other games at any time, since there are no subscriptions. A game like World of Warcraft has to compete with every other game out there ever, since it has a constant need for investment (money). Guild Wars 2 will only have to compete with games (budget-wise)

I predict 2 million players in the first week. Then it will eventually drop a little, because people can't let off the WoW mechanics.

Without wanting to go too far off-topic, I don't really think people will have too much trouble adapting. It they've played any class based game before (be it Team Fortress, Diablo, Elder Scrolls: Oblivion...) they'll have a general idea on how thing will work. And the early adapters will probably be aware of the design intent A-net has, so only a couple of people will be confused by the lack of clear roles.

[Merendel]

Pretty much anything that is not an MMO can classify as B2P, because that's essentially what you do with single player/multiplayer type games that you can buy for a console and pc, you have to buy the game to play the game and it's a one time fee. And it is true that people usually get about a month's worth out of most non MMO games, at least that's definitely been my first hand experience with it.

I was gona say basicly this in reply to maklor but obviously its been said. On the other hand I'd call a month or two quite generious for most games. A few games with high replay value hit that mark, normaly with multi player such as a FPS or some single player RPG's like any of the elder scrolls or fallout titles but most games these days are lucky to last a week before I've beaten them once, maybe another week and a half for me to play through it finding all the goodies I missed the first time and then maybe I'll pull it out agian in a year or two for a few days. IF a games single player has more than 40 hours of gameplay its normaly quite large. Its more common for games to just add grindy gathering stuff to add to replay value or just pad that number if they dont just go the multiplayer combat route.