Originally Posted by
Facetoface
I think it's time to lay this out for you guys. I'm trying to avoid doing this in the thread for as long as possible to discourage any retaliation from the Cannibals/Goons, but I am the cop. From reading the thread and PMs with you all, I trust you the most, and my reasoning will follow. This takes a certain level of trust on my part, and it's a rather long leap, but someone has to take it. We are highly ineffectual apart. Anyway, my reasoning for trusting each of you is as follows:
Rixis - As I've defended you in the thread, you're playing a near perfect bomb. I investigated you early and the more I re-read the thread, I can't help it. You're the bomb. You asked questions about nearly every way the bomb could work on day 1! You eventually came out and claimed it, but by then I was already convinced.
Aadren - You claimed it and likely prevented a night kill last night. You've been lurking in the shadows until recently, which made me initially suspicious. I suppose you could be playing a mean SK, but you've gained trust of others, and if I'm going to survive the next few nights, I need you on my side regardless. It's a chance I have to take.
Wasselina - Your melt down following the Alba/Worgen debacle pretty much sealed it. I wasn't sure at first if you were just being a clever Goon by pointing at Alba, but after he was Goon AND Worgen was killed in retaliation, I've decided to trust you.
Since things are coming down to the wire, and I may have to claim soon in the thread, I wanted to share with you guys first so that we can maybe coordinate. My investigations so far:
Night 1: Purifier - Goon
Night 2: Rixis - Townie
Night 3: Dyra - Goon
Night 4: Eniah - Goon
By my guess, Purifier was with Worgen and somehow managed to get in contact with Wass/Nightfury or something (I'm still not exactly sure what happened with all of that, but I know it wasn't good). That means that Dyra probably lied about Rolo being the 4th Vanilla Goon. My best guess for the Vanilla break down is Prez-, Worgen, Purifier, and Dyra. I suppose he could have been Strawberry, but that's just the train of thought I'm having right now.
My rant about Tyrael and Dyra being in league was an effort to see if I could get a 2 for 1...I wasn't sure which mafia Dyra was in. Because he didn't flop, I figured he was a Goon/Traitor, but then he died, so now we don't know.
That would make Eniah a Strawberry and would mean that they either converted a traitor last night (Night 4) or they targeted someone that Aadren saved. I have my suspicions about Holz being either Goon with Eniah or a SK in hiding based. As for the other SK, my vote would be on Geng or Foxx.
I'm open to suggestions for how to analyze from here and who I should investigate if I survive the night. I'd love to investigate Geng/Foxx/Holz, but since I might get just a "townie" result, that wouldn't conclusively say whether or not he is SK or VT or Traitor. If anyone else suspects them, I'd almost advise voting them today, seeing if I can get another Goon hit, and then dispatching the Goons later on. There is still a chance the Goons and SKs will take each other out.
I've not included Bas or Philip, even though they have both claimed VT, because they also haven't really contributed meaningfully. I tend to believe bas being VT, but nothing substantial. I only shifted the vote off him b/c I was SURE about dyra and didn't want to take a chance. If you guys have more reason to trust them, I'm open to hear it.
I hope this is coherent, sorry for grammar and spelling mistakes.