T15 BrM set bonus

[Raider321]

This 4p thing still bothers me. Let's say we get 6 procs per minute, and we only need to clear Stagger 6 times per minute. Level 30 talents has their Chi costs removed. WTF are we going to spend our Chi on? I already maintain 90+% shuffle on most fights, it will just become that much easier?

I've been wondering this myself and I think the answer is that some of the stats going into haste atm will be changed to crit but we will also have to use some of the chi that before went into chi wave instead used to purify with. One reason being because of the mastery buff but also because our new 2set will make our stagger increase even more.

I also noticed stagger stacking up much quicker on PTR than on live.


I believe this is the start of dumbing brewmasters down, it's a little too difficult for average joe to play it atm and this is one of blizzards solutions to the "problem".

[Asmalya]

I've been wondering this myself and I think the answer is that some of the stats going into haste atm will be changed to crit but we will also have to use some of the chi that before went into chi wave instead used to purify with. One reason being because of the mastery buff but also because our new 2set will make our stagger increase even more.

I also noticed stagger stacking up much quicker on PTR than on live.


I believe this is the start of dumbing brewmasters down, it's a little too difficult for average joe to play it atm and this is one of blizzards solutions to the "problem".

I dont know. Average joe still wonders why his ui flashes red and pb flashes up some times. What is wow trying to tell him?
Iam not sure if it makes brm easier if the stagger dot rises higher.
In the end we might just have more healer getting a nervous shock as soon as they see a brm tank on their heroic.

[imoom]

With mastery buff, set bonus, and higher ilvl plus the fact that the bosses will naturally hit harder in upcomming tiers, the stagger damage will obviously reach high numbers, however by staggering a larger % of the hit, the less important it will be to purify.

that sounds bit weird, yes. but hear me out:
Consider a boss that hits for 100k every 2 seconds, and a monk with "40% stagger"
That means 500k damage taken before stagger.
unpurified that adds up to 200k over 10 seconds. -> 20k ticks.
Lets assume we continue taking this damage still not purifying, the "10 second old" ticks will tick of, being replaced with a new tick for the same damage.
Now looking more into this we can see that we will take
When a melee swing occurs we will take 80k damage, and the second between melee swings, we take 20k.

upping the stagger to 60% the ticks will be at 70k / 30k instead. Remember, spike damage is what primarly kills tanks, when the healers just arent ready for the damage intake.

With more mastery the damage will smothen out, and even if stagger now ticks for 30k instead of 20, it will still be less dangerous.
With increased stamina, and stats that we will get on new gear i do not think we will have to purify much more aggresivly then we are now, we might need to start purify at heavy instead of moderate tho.

---------- Post added 2013-01-21 at 04:27 PM ----------

That said, an unstaggerable attack such as a "dragon breath" will alone be made more dangerous with more mastery, increasing the need to purify before such a dangerous unstaggerable attack occurs, which in turn requires more awareness. Tricky thing this is, and I am really only waiting for an addition to mastery where the ticking damage also gets reduced by mastery, leaving lets say: "40% taken directly, 50% taken as dot", "30% directly 55% as dot." or something similiar.

[Shinchib]

@imoom: how about increasing the duration of the dot? Instead of a static 10 secs, it can be increased to 12-15 (15 being an absurd amount of mastery at end game). That way you still take the full damage but its spread over a longer period etc etc.

[Chuupag]

that sounds bit weird, yes. but hear me out:
Consider a boss that hits for 100k every 2 seconds, and a monk with "40% stagger"
That means 500k damage taken before stagger.
unpurified that adds up to 200k over 10 seconds. -> 20k ticks.
Lets assume we continue taking this damage still not purifying, the "10 second old" ticks will tick of, being replaced with a new tick for the same damage.
Now looking more into this we can see that we will take
When a melee swing occurs we will take 80k damage, and the second between melee swings, we take 20k.

Stagger duration gets refreshed whenever new damage is taken. If you take 100k hit with 40% staggered you'll take a 60k hit and 40k will be divided up to 10 ticks of 4k each. If you take the hit again 2 seconds later you will have 'consumed' 2 ticks of the stagger, bringing the total old stagger to 32k, and will add another 40k, bringing the the duration back to 10 seconds with 7.2k ticks. Let's get some mechanics and math correct before we start saying what is likely to happen with upcoming changes.

[djtravitrav]

All i'm going to say is you guys are making a whole lot of drama over a mechanic that is so minor to the Brewmaster class.

[SurrealNight]

You probably never had any probability homework. Don't you realize that "having a 6 or not" is like rolling a dice with "6" on one side and "d'oh" on 5 sides ?

Does anyone else REALLY want a set of dice that give a homer "d'oh" when every an undesirable result turns up?

They are arguing because you really can't theorycraft a lot of other things (like the value of mastery w/ the 4P) without an accepted PPM value.

[Gallahadd]

Does anyone else REALLY want a set of dice that give a homer "d'oh" when every an undesirable result turns up?

Very much so :P I'd LOVE a set of D6 with "D'oh!" instead of the 1 and "Woohoo" instead of the 6!

It'd go right next to my watch I bought when I went to see Thich Nhat Hanh that just has "Now" instead of the numbers .

Anyone hoping next PTR build they either give people full tier, or at least increase the drop rate of tier during testing so we can get some REAL numbers not just competing maths and conjecture about this set bonus?

[imoom]

Stagger duration gets refreshed whenever new damage is taken. If you take 100k hit with 40% staggered you'll take a 60k hit and 40k will be divided up to 10 ticks of 4k each. If you take the hit again 2 seconds later you will have 'consumed' 2 ticks of the stagger, bringing the total old stagger to 32k, and will add another 40k, bringing the the duration back to 10 seconds with 7.2k ticks. Let's get some mechanics and math correct before we start saying what is likely to happen with upcoming changes.

oh, you are correct, I knew damage could go down and rememberred wrong on how the stacking works. I am still correct in the limit of the whole thing tho. between each melee swing a total of 20% of the stagger will tick off, and the remaining 80% will be added with the 40k from the newest meleeswing, divided over 10 seconds. -> 20k tick.

[Shinchib]

oh, you are correct, I knew damage could go down and rememberred wrong on how the stacking works. I am still correct in the limit of the whole thing tho. between each melee swing a total of 20% of the stagger will tick off, and the remaining 80% will be added with the 40k from the newest meleeswing, divided over 10 seconds. -> 20k tick.

20k is the limit (think lan on your calculator/graph) so it will never reach it. Still, 20k is good.

[gynshon]

Going to try something out tonight in our heroic farm raids. I am only going to Purify when the dot tick is at 10% of my current health pool. So in essence:

600k - 60k ticks
500k - 50k ticks
400k - 40k ticks

and so on. I will not be reforging into Mastery, or anything else. Then next week, same thing but reforge/gem entirely into mastery but keep my haste where it is. Then run some comparisons. Testing some theories out that I think might change what we do in 5.2.

[Shinchib]

Going to try something out tonight in our heroic farm raids. I am only going to Purify when the dot tick is at 10% of my current health pool. So in essence:

600k - 60k ticks
500k - 50k ticks
400k - 40k ticks

and so on. I will not be reforging into Mastery, or anything else. Then next week, same thing but reforge/gem entirely into mastery but keep my haste where it is. Then run some comparisons. Testing some theories out that I think might change what we do in 5.2.

Can't wait.

[Chuupag]

I like it how this thread basically died once the drama was gone. Good to know what people care about.

[TheTrueM4gg0t]

My math makes sense to me, that the 50/50 split is also the average length of time between procs and extrapolating that time frame over the minute gives you the PPM. But I think this may be boiling down to a mean vs median problem, meaning the average might be one thing, but the peak of the distribution curve may be another. All of our numbers are fairly close in the grand scheme of things between 5 and 8 depending on who is doing the math and what system they are using. Let's move towards a more meta discussion of the issue.

okey, then I'll bring the drama back by trying to explain why your thoughts are wrong ^^
you seem to have muddled something up in your statistics lessons, because what you are calculating by saying 0.9^7 = 50% is that after 7 throws, there's a 50% chance that there was no occurence yet.
This is the "testing for one occurence" model. for example: throw a dice, until you have a 6. that's what this model talks about.
the fact that after 7 throws theres a 50% chance we had no procc yet, does not imply that theres a 50% chance we had exactly one procc, it means we have a 50% we had at least one procc (that can also mean 6 proccs) in the first 7 sec.
as there's a 50% chance for no procc in the first 7 proccs, theres a 50% chance for a procc in between throw 8 and infinity.
thats all we get to know. this model doesnt tell you anything about the average amount of proccs, no even the average time in between proccs.

now the question is, how do you conclude, that when there's a 50% theres no procc in the first 7 seconds, that there's a procc every 7 seconds on average?
this is just totally wrong.

lets assume this is true. now we have a 10 sided die, with numbers 0-9 written in it.
I guess you agree with me, that throwing this die, and accepting the 0 as a PB procc and 1-9 as no proccs, models the situation correctly.
Now lets assume your theory is correct, and after 60 seconds (60 times of throwing the die) we can expect 8-9 proccs (8-9 zeros on top)
Without changig the above scenario, we could give every number 1-9 it's own meaning, for example 1 is a free BoK.
How many free BoK will we get in 60sec? again, theres a 10% chance for a 1 to be on top, so following your logic = 8-9 proccs in 60sec.
the same accounts for the procc associated with 2, 3....9
so in the end, we have 10 discjunct events, each occuring 8-9 times in 60 throws.
After 60 seconds (60 throws) we have 10 * 8-9 = 80-90 proccs. but that cant be true, because we only have 60 results (=numbers on top) in the first 60 seconds, so we cant expect to see 80-90 events on average.

the expected value is simply this: 60 * 10% = 6 occurences.
just as you expect 1 procc out of 10, because its a 10% chance. this is the value you expect. this does not mean that you will always have a procc in the first 10seconds, not at all, there's still a 35% chance there will be no procc, but the next 10sec you will maybe have 2 proccs. if you keep on throwing 1000s of times, it will even you te be about 1 procc every 10 seconds.

[Chuupag]

lets drop this discussion and focus more on a bigger picture.

Let's move towards a more meta discussion of the issue.

However, in favor of other discussion, I'm all for letting it go.

I like it how this thread basically died once the drama was gone. Good to know what people care about.

okey, then I'll bring the drama back

I'm not going to get back into the math. Let's keep this about the issues at hand.

[SurrealNight]

I like it how this thread basically died once the drama was gone. Good to know what people care about.

I'm mostly waiting for more information. Hard to say a whole lot else until we have details such as if their is an ICD, duration the proc will last, who often we are needing/should use PB in 5.2, etc.

Gynshon's #'s will be interesting but will take a week as well.

[Kisho]

So here's something to potentially discuss. Going to post it here, even though technically it could go in the WW set bonuses thread.

I just had a thought, though I doubt I'm the first to have it. While the WW 4 set bonus is useless for us, how about the 2 set bonus? For reference:

Windwalker two-piece: Your Chi generating abilities have a 15% chance to generate an Energy Sphere, which will grant you 10 Energy when you walk through it .

Windwalker four-piece: You have a 10% chance to gain an additional charge of Tigereye Brew every time you gain a charge of Tigereye Brew.

So yeah, that 4 piece is pointless, but extra energy? I wonder. Judging by T14 gear T15 should have mostly the same stats, WW or BrM, with maybe 1-2 changes, so that's not an issue. And we're used to side-stepping to pick up orbs anyway with GotO, so it's not like we're going to do anything different.

The downside is we give up the 4 piece bonus of BrM, but then the WW 2 piece gives us extra energy for extra Chi for extra PBs. And if we don't need to PB, it's more DPS. Perhaps it's slightly more versatile?

Something to think about, at any rate. Maybe we'll get access to T15 gear on the PTR: would be good to test it to see how our energy income is with the WW 2 set bonus.

What do you all think about this?

[gynshon]

Last night's results are in. http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-15...rd/?enc=bosses

Not sure if I am happy or not and because I kept the same strict rules applied for every fight (minus a mishit once in awhile) some fights didn't seem to work with this approach, aka Will of the Emp. I got low enough after Elusive Brew/Guard were used up that I had a really bad RNG string where I took a lot of damage. I purified it off, but every swing hit me, which is pretty rare.

Keeping up Shuffle wasn't hard really for most fights, had some extra Chi for some waves to spread around, but will have to do some hard comparisons next week with a Mastery build. Our strats don't change, so the comparisons should be pretty accurate.

[imoom]

I'm mostly waiting for more information. Hard to say a whole lot else until we have details such as if their is an ICD, duration the proc will last, who often we are needing/should use PB in 5.2, etc.

Gynshon's #'s will be interesting but will take a week as well.

There is more discussion of the 2 set to be had, for instance, is the 50% uptime achievable (i think so), and how "mastery" (comparing overall average, and during actual uptime) will critrating provide vs what mastery provides.

also, will 50% EB uptime (-> 100% extra dodge or 2set bonus) be softcap that we wont want to go past, or is it just a small difference and crit continues to be king (if it now will be king ofc).

ww2set can also be interesting, but i personally think we have to move to much for gotox as it is, dont wanna move for energy spheres aswell..

[Shinchib]

More math you say?! Sweet!

So let's start off with some assumptions then. How many chi generating moves do we do per minute? Also, assuming that these chi generating abilities include dodge and parries. Another assumption, we are not going to get every single orb and we'll have to keep our energy lower than usual to not waste the 10 energy.

If we assume KS on CD = 7.5 every minute => 7 is "more realistic"
Expel Harm on CD = 4 every minute => 3 is "more realistic"
Jabs => about 7 per minute*
Total = 17 chi generating abilities per minute (I would even go and say that 17 is the maximum per minute because you typically would use expel harm or jab if you don't need expel harm so they are kinda interchangeable)

17*15% = 2.55 orbs per minute which is 25.5 energy if we pick up both of them.

*i used Gynshons latest log post as reference. I averaged out the amount of jabs used per fight that were not AoE fights and a fight like Blade Lord was not included cuz p2 is just running etc