The Brexit aftermath thread

[Slant]

Financial services, machinery (including heavy industrial machinery), pharmaceuticals, chemicals and ofc OIL

So basically nothing we don't have plenty of ourselves. There you go, trade imbalance explained.

[Noradin]

So basically nothing we don't have plenty of ourselves. There you go, trade imbalance explained.

see, that there just proves the different cultures

[Mayhem]

No, but you said they should have established a common one, and that always leads to a replacement of all others in the (very) long run unless things turn violent.

That is not certain in any way, because if it was, most of the dialects spoken wouldn't exist anymore.

Neither am I talking about their foreign population.
And those I'm tlaking about are perfectly cappable of speaking German.

I was making a joke.

[Noradin]

That is not certain in any way, because if it was, most of the dialects spoken wouldn't exist anymore.

Which has been shown to generally be true for all dialects and languages in the history of mankind :P
(Those that still exists right now just arent extinct yet.)

I was making a joke.

Sorry

[Mittens]

Did you just call me an it?
Anyway, an excess of cash with low interest rate is something that can cause trade deficits without job loss, depending on the value of the currency. Obviously still a loss of hypothetical jobs, but not necessarily real ones.

It seems you are missing the point. Why would the job market self correct? Under normal trade theory this job losses are covered by growth in other sectors and in the economy in general caused by capital inflows (trade deficits), in a world with excess capital and low interest rates trade deficits don't add anything useful to the economy , quite the opposite, they are a drag to it.

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I mean it's Ireland. It's very clear why their "exports" go to the US. It's not trade goods. It's services offered being repatriated for the different megacorps that dodge taxes there. Again, raw numbers mean nothing, there are specific details that must always be taken into account and in a fair analysis discounted.

That website only displays trade of physical goods.

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It is a sign that you trust them to sell a usable product at that price.
Because people try to buy well priced products, not just cheap ones that they think won't work anyway.

Expecting products to usable is normal, its something that is basically guaranteed if you buy your product at an official store.

[Noradin]

Expecting products to usable is normal, its something that is basically guaranteed if you buy your product at an official store.

Unfortunately that's not true for all products.
Some are of bad quality and do not meet the expectations.
Furniture from the UK for example often looks great but is of such cheap quality that it is not worth the shipping costs, let alone the price they put on it.

[Mayhem]

Which has been shown to generally be true for all dialects and languages in the history of mankind :P
(Those that still exists right now just arent extinct yet.)

If both languages are taught at school none of them goes extinct, why would they?

Sorry

^^

[Kiri]

It seems you are missing the point. Why would the job market self correct? Under normal trade theory this job losses are covered by growth in other sectors and in the economy in general caused by capital inflows (trade deficits), in a world with excess capital and low interest rates trade deficits don't add anything useful to the economy , quite the opposite, they are a drag to it.

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That website only displays trade of physical goods.

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Expecting products to usable is normal, its something that is basically guaranteed if you buy your product at an official store.

The point that I made is that the trade deficit is not something new. If you have a trade deficit this year, it does not necessarily mean anything at all changed, if you've had one last year as well. It is quite possible that jobs were only lost decades ago, but the loss was absorbed by growth since then. That is why data is needed to make any statement. As such, you need to present data if you want to stipulate that job loss is caused by the deficit today.

[Noradin]

If both languages are taught at school none of them goes extinct, why would they?

Because people will tend to use one of them more and the other less and less.
That's how all those dialects and languages disappear.

(The best examples can be found in the UK, but then, they actively tried to kill off all regional languages for centuries.)

[Mayhem]

Because people will tend to use one of them more and the other less and less.
That's how all those dialects and languages disappear.

(The best examples can be found in the UK, but then, they actively tried to kill off all regional languages for centuries.)

We are bilingual in schools in austria for more than 30 years now and the result is that 70+% of austrians are able to hold a discussion in another language. There is no reason why one language would automatically replace the other. Again, the dialects are still around, heck i'm speaking two dialects even.

[Mittens]

The point that I made is that the trade deficit is not something new. If you have a trade deficit this year, it does not necessarily mean anything at all changed, if you've had one last year as well. It is quite possible that jobs were only lost decades ago, but the loss was absorbed by growth since then. That is why data is needed to make any statement. As such, you need to present data if you want to stipulate that job loss is caused by the deficit today.

You are still missing the point. I'm going to put it easier. How do you calculate GDP? What role does imports play in it? How does this role get affected in times of excess capital and low interest rate?

[Noradin]

We are bilingual in schools in austria for more than 30 years now and the result is that 70+% of austrians are able to hold a discussion in another language. There is no reason why one language would automatically replace the other. Again, the dialects are still around, heck i'm speaking two dialects even.

Thirty years are nothing.

[Kiri]

You are still missing the point. I'm going to put it easier. How do you calculate GDP? What role does imports play in it? How does this role get affected in times of excess capital and low interest rate?

I did get your point. Excess capital and low interest rates implies that investment is stagnating, which has adverse effects on job creation and growth. A trade deficit lowers GDP.
I do get your point that a sudden trade deficit can cause job loss. That is not missed. The problem is that you are only observing a single data point and make deductions based on that, while I am arguing about a longer period of time.

[Deleted]

You are still missing the point. I'm going to put it easier. How do you calculate GDP?

Since we are now going for relatively complex shit, this is the Identity for GDP:
GDP = consumption + investment + government spending + (exports − imports).

What role does imports play in it?

They are deducted from the total, while still accounting for economical activity in excess.

How does this role get affected in times of excess capital and low interest rate?

Excess capital leads to increased FDI, Low interest rates lowers the value of the currency.

[Mittens]

I did get your point. Excess capital and low interest rates implies that investment is stagnating, which has adverse effects on job creation and growth. A trade deficit lowers GDP.
I do get your point that a sudden trade deficit can cause job loss. That is not missed. The problem is that you are only observing a single data point and make deductions based on that, while I am arguing about a longer period of time.

Why would the negatives be lost over time?

The trade deficit in the UK has been doing nothing but growing and while exports and/or growth are not catching up to the rate.

[ranzino]

Theresa M. wrote a letter to EU Citizens within UK:
https://twitter.com/theresa_may/stat...11813563723776

if the UK courts fail to secure the rights of those EU citizens, UK will be blamed for breaking the deal.

[Kiri]

Why would the negatives be lost over time?

The trade deficit in the UK has been doing nothing but growing and while exports and/or growth are not catching up to the rate.

Are you sure about that? Excluding oscillation, the trend has been a diminishing trade deficit. Both imports and exports have been increasing lately. If you have conflicting data, please present it.

[Kallisto]

Theresa M. wrote a letter to EU Citizens within UK:
https://twitter.com/theresa_may/stat...11813563723776

if the UK courts fail to secure the rights of those EU citizens, UK will be blamed for breaking the deal.

Gah looking at replies. First one calling it a stab in the back for leave voters. Few more down bitching about having to pay for them. It's like they just can't help themselves with their false naratives.

[Triks]

"They don't invite me because I am handsome but because of what I did for the Balkans!"

"Let's see it, I told her. I had read about the English tea and I wanted to drink it."

"When she comes to Bulgaria I will give her yoghurt."

Our Prime Minister, visiting the UK's Prime Minister. Remember those cultural differences I was harping on about?

[Slant]

How... can you be this stupid. So they hammer out a last minute compromise deal that is super flaky to begin with. And then Davis goes on to say that it's not binding...

Now EU officials are considering to insist putting it into law, as in actually ratifying the first part into UK legislation. As if the UK had time to do that... sheesh.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ys-verhofstadt

EU ministers are meeting in Brussels on Tuesday to discuss the text to be put before leaders on Friday morning.

“As someone said, it’s an own goal,” Verhofstadt said. “It is clear that the European council will be more strict now. It is saying: ‘Yeah, OK, these are our intentions, our commitments, we want these commitments translated into legal text before we make progress in the second stage.’ That is now the position of the council. I have seen a hardening of the position of the council and there will be a hardening of the position of the parliament.”

The European parliament is to vote on a draft resolution on Wednesday and this will also be amended so as to condemn the comments and demand swift legal assurances from the UK, he added.

The proposed amendments claim that in “calling the outcome of phase one of the negotiations a mere ‘statement of intent’”, Davis’s intervention threatened “to undermine the good faith that has been built during the
negotiations”.

Is this what the UK considers "professional negotiation"? Good luck with that kind of attitude when trying to make deals with third parties. This isn't a child's game. When you say silly things like that on TV, be mindful that other nations do have free access to the footage and will take you seriously. This type of commentary isn't a joke that you can play off later.

In other words, sooner or later you will have to tell the truth, the stark naked truth. And you will have to face the British electorate about what you promised and what you actually can deliver. The EU won't save you from that.