Alright, I go back to my original choice. If I can get the $10mill without taxes, I'll take the lump sum.
It's honestly a little scary the amount of people who think they'd immediately become like wall street tycoons of investing and marketing because they magically got 10 million dollars, even though the overwhelmingly vast majority would just be in the poor house 5 years later. Fiscal Dunning-Kruger, I guess.
@cubby @Gael4 @X Amadeus X
Sighhhhhhhhh, you guys will never stop, honestly making me put effort into this shit just to solve this stupid debate once and for all.
First, most of the math used previously was flawed, I just ran all the numbers again and they don't add up.
Let's begin.
First, using 6million after taxes while mentioning 1k a day is just wrong, we gotta tax the yearly income since it's not an annuity( or at least no initial sum was mentioned).
1) 360k with a 40% tax rate is , 360 000*0.6 = 216 000$ yearly or 600 daily.
2) Now let's calculate the annuity rate of 6M using a rate of 3% ( the most common rate).
P = (r*PV)/ [ 1-(1+r)^-n]
P = payment
PV = present value ( 6M)
R= rate per period (3% or 0.03)
n= number of periods ( 50 years)
P = (0.03*6 000 000 )/ [1-(1+0.03)^-50]
= 180 000 / 0.77 <-rounded value
= 233 766$ yearly <-rounded
daily P= 233766/360 =649.35 $
649$ ( from the 6M) > 600$ .
Now just for kicks I'm going to show you the initial amount of what your 600 per day everyday deal would amount to if you reverse engineer it.
PV =P{ [1-(1+r)^-n]/r }
P= 600 daily or 600x360= 216000 yearly
r= 3% or 0.03
n=50 years
PV = 216 000 { [ 1-(1+0.03)^-50]/0.03}
=216 000 ( 0.77/0.03 )
= 5,542,560 <- rounded value.
So if you had taken the 2nd offer your initial value would be around 5.5 M $ which is less than the 6 M you would have gotten from the first deal.
Can we please end this discussion now ? bye.
Last edited by wholol; 2018-06-06 at 09:25 PM.
Take the 10 million. The future is uncertain so earning 1000 could result in more, or you could get hit by a car crashing through your living room.
First let me stop and say thank you for running the calculations and those numbers are true and accurate for what they are but here is the thing.
I’m also talking about more than just the numbers. Obviously you understand and know what you’re talking about with the numbers. But a lump sum when weighing against other factors such as poor money management couple that with the fact it’s not easy to do much better than what you just calculated.
Now I’m saying the 1k a day is the better way to go because accounting for all the factors and the reasons given to grow 10 million, can also be done with the 1K a day for life and in the end nets a greater result. Th has income the build going along the generous what ifs not in your calculations because let’s face it you’re numbers here are based on reality so.
That said the 1k is still the better option even in this because it’s better than getting 10 or inreality after taxes as you’ve pointed out and accounting for inflation and minimum terms the 1k a day for life is the best.
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Investing in what specifically?
Milli Vanilli, Bigger than Elvis
Lump sum, because compound interest.
There's just no comparison.
"Sighhhhhhhhh, you guys will never stop, honestly making me put effort into this shit just to solve this stupid debate once and for all.
First, most of the math used previously was flawed, I just ran all the numbers again and they don't add up."
That came off as condescending and addressed at me, sorry if that was not intended. What you did is arrive at the same conclusion indirectly by calculating annuities, when I used the formula for present value directly. Again, I've never said that the 1k a day were better, all I'm saying is that compound interest isn't always magically better like many assume in this thread, and that you need to do the math first.
1k at 3% doesn't work, but 1k at 2% or 1.4k at 3% do.
We already reached the right conclusion pages ago. The rest is just finding out how ignorant X is about the very issues he's trying to "educate" us on. I mean, I appreciate the effort, of course.
A few notes: most annuities now are paying 4-6%, depending on age (and a number of other factors, obviously). So you could take half the $10M and put it in an annuity and get close to $1k a day.
The other $5M could be invested in an aggressive but diversified portfolio that would get you between 10-15% annually.
And we haven't even talked about Trusts yet.
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I'm not sure you actually know. An annuity is a life-time guaranteed income. Which is exactly what one of your options in the poll. So we can get guaranteed income for life, and still have money left over.
That's why the $10M is the only smart choice. Now, taking $1k/day for life isn't an awful choice - it would definitely give you security, and that coin in your back pocket that you mentioned earlier. But again, the $10M also gets you that - plus more.
How so? I'm really curious as to why you keep bringing this up. Because it doesn't affect the math at all. Are you talking about bad habits?Most people that have 10 million have to earn it. When you win it that takes on a different nature.
Again - $10M in the bank gets you all the credit you need. You keep saying credit is based off income and pay history. And is can be based on that. But it's also based on your assets. When you get into big money and lending - it's all about your assets.But in either neither are especially helpful in terms of credit
I only brought up short selling because lump sums of cash/assets in a bank allow you to push the margins (i.e. credit) on shorting stocks. It's an example of credit outside the parameters you were trying to set.Short selling is a really shitty way to do that unless you’ve done it for a lot of years.
This is where I come back to saying that I don't think you know what an annuity is. I'm asking you now, sincerely, without any snarkiness. What do you think an annuity is?Again this isn’t money you earned so you don’t unless you have a plan the anuuity fairy isn’t going to help you.
If you don't take the 10 Mil now, and invest most of it in a series of well-diversified mutual fund(s) -- you're crazy.
The interest earned alone would make it comparable to $1k a day.
Last edited by Frosteye; 2018-06-06 at 10:36 PM.
@X Amadeus X
I truly want to know your education level for you to be as ignorant as you are. Even the simplest Finance 101 course will teach you to take the lump sum every day all day. The math has been proven and your response is something horribly uneducated of "You're the investment" or "it's better because" when the math is right that shows why it ISN'T better.
You then go to "well what would you invest in?" Any portfolio would be a diverse portfolio of multiple industries to reduce risk and ensure a long term investment. You could also invest in property as they can make a lot of things, but they can't make more land and property values typically go up. Houses are considered a good investment for a reason.
Also...you don't need to be some stock or investment guru to get decent returns, hell companies exist just for this. Yes you'll pay fees but the returns will be far better than $1,000 a day especially once one begins to account for inflation.
Last edited by VexxedFox; 2018-06-06 at 10:39 PM.
Lump sum ($10m right now) for many reasons:
- I can invest it and easily make more than $1k a day.
- If I die sooner than ~27.4y (the amount of time it would take $1k a day to accumulate $10m), I stop collecting, right? While I think I'll outlive 27.4y (I'm only 27 right now so that's only 2x my age), you can't account for freak accidents (cancer, murder/manslaughter, accidents, etc).
- People saying "so you don't go broke" clearly have no self-control and I don't see this as a counterargument against lump sum.
- People also saying "the money increases due to inflation" are just flat out wrong. $1k a day is $1k a day regardless if $1k becomes the new penny in 27.4y or not. $10m now obviously doesn't get affected since it's present money you obtain today, so if anything, $1k a day nets you LESS money, even if you outlive the profit point because it's actually suffering to inflation, not benefiting from it!
Now if you changed the $1k every day to "$15m across 5-10 years" or something more reasonable than the ridiculous 27.4y it's set to now, I could see myself potentially choosing the other option, but it would need to do two things:
1. Be a more reasonable amount of time to make a profit (again, 27.4y to start turning a TINY profit is WAAAAAAAAAY too long)
2. It would need to give a sizable amount of extra profit for the time you had to wait, such as 50% after 5-10 years.
But assuming we're forced at the OP's options, it's a no-brainer to take the lump sum.
Exactly, while you still have the original $10m investment as well, so you can enjoy basically having the best of both worlds.
Last edited by Polarthief; 2018-06-06 at 10:41 PM.
Still wondering why I play this game.
I'm a Rogue and I also made a spreadsheet for the Order Hall that is updated for BfA.
$1k a day and live modestly.
I wouldn't want the $10 mill because I'd spend the rest of my life worrying about spending too much of it at once. Investing it is too much work and I'd still be worrying about it.