Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Locklen]

@Skroe I read your post, and have a question. Could some of the funding for at least 1 democrat priority (likely in 2021) be freed up by ending the tax cuts or even increasing the taxes on the groups who had benefitted? I ask since I feel it likely that the Democrats who take the White House and Senate in 2020 will likely want to enact a major part of their agenda (doubling down on Mitch's double down of Reid's filibuster killing efforts).

[Skroe]

@Skroe I read your post, and have a question. Could some of the funding for at least 1 democrat priority (likely in 2021) be freed up by ending the tax cuts or even increasing the taxes on the groups who had benefitted? I ask since I feel it likely that the Democrats who take the White House and Senate in 2020 will likely want to enact a major part of their agenda (doubling down on Mitch's double down of Reid's filibuster killing efforts).

It doesn't exactly work like that. Tax Cuts are a reduction in PROJECTED revenues. It's talking about the future. When you hear the words "trillion dollar tax cut", usually they mean over a decade. That is averaged out, for the sake simplicitly, to $100 billion a year. But it's not that linear. It depends on the economy. If the economy contracts and government expected recipts are smaller than expected, the tax cut could end up costing a great deal more. If the economy expands, the tax cut could end up costing less. In fact, this is one way tax cuts have been fictionalized to be "revenue neutral" by advocates - by projecting economic growth that is unrealistic.

Point is, it's a bit too simple to say "canceling the tax cut would net an additional $100 billion a year for programs". It could be more... a great deal more. It could be significantly less.


Now, having said that, let's look at $100 billion. What does that get you? Less than you'd think.

The budget process in the US is kind of a ritual where everyone knows the parts they have to get through, everyone knows the end, and the stages are just strange.

The President Submits a Presidental Budget Request. This document is mostly a political document. It's the President putting a number to his priorities. It's a bullshit document. One of Obama's PBRs basically ended manned spaceflight and cut the Army by 80k troops. One of Trump's PBRs cut the State Department budget by a third and the EPA by like 50% or something.

The PBR doesn't even get read and nobody takes it seriously.

But in addition to that, every agency submits another document. "Unfunded Budget Requests". Kind of a wish list of the things they want, that's not in the PBR.

The budget then has two steps. First the various committees AUTHORIZE spending at a certain level. So for example the Armed Services Committee would authorize the Pentagon to spend $700 billion in the next fiscal year, and they'd lay out exactly on what programs. The details of that budget would be pulled from the prior budget, novel elements of the PBR, and the unfunded list. But this doesn't actually allocate any money. This just says "it's okay to spend that money on these things". I hope I'm explaining the difference right. It's the difference between permission and disbursement. These are called Authorization Bills, and every government agency gets one.

The APPROPRIATIONS bills actually disburses the money. And they are written by the APPROPRIATIONS committees to do what the individual committees that wrote Authorization did, but all on their own. And they often reach different conclusions about how money should be allocated. When in conflict, Appropriations usually wins.

Once these have all been reconciled between the House and Senate, the President signs into law two bills - one for permission (authorization), and one that releases funds (appropriations).

Why is it like this? A key reason is mid-1970s budget reform, which has never worked properly and everyone hates. It will almost certainly change in coming years. But this is how things have worked for at least 40 years.


Now the reason I explained all this is because I want to get back to that $100 billion a canceled tax cut would bring about. Every Agency and department in government would make a play for some segment of that $100 billion. And even if leadership decided to put it all towards one new, $100 billion program, and AUTHORIZED it, the Appropriations committees would have to write their own budget for it. And it could end up being financed from the money from that tax cut, or debt, or at a level less than authorized, if they think some share of that $100 billion should go to the rest of government.

And thus you see how sausage is made.

In order to afford democratic priorities WHILE doing all the necessary security stuff in coming decades that we're going to have to do to not get taken to school by China, we're going to have to not just cancel the tax cuts, but raise taxes significantly. To like early 1990s levels probably. That'll bring in a lot more government revenue than just a paltry $100 billion (out of nearly 4 trillion). To look at this from another angle, we currently operate at a deficit of about $780 billion a year. That means in order to just break even, we need to raise taxes that bring in about $780 billion more a year, or cut expenditures, or both. Getting rid of the Trump, Obama and Bush Tax Cuts wouldn't really do it by itself. It would be a start. There would have to be broader tax reform.

Is it possible? Absolutely. But it means large scale reorganization of Health Care and Social Security, and significantly raising taxes across the board. If Democrats want UBI or Free College, the way to it is to fundamentally reform health care in this country to drive costs to taxpayers at the federal level through the floor (that does not imply less services), make change social security, and most of all, raise about $7 trillion in new taxes over the next 30 years, or about $420 billion in new / repealed taxes per year.

[Zaktar]

At this point you don't accept a job offer from Trump unless you want to ruin your career.

If you have anything to hide, this is true, and gee, it's funny how many people associated with Trump seem to have had a lot they wanted hidden. Probably a coincidence. Otherwise, especially if you demonstrated integrity in your dealings with the man, you're probably fine.

[Cup of Tea]

If you have anything to hide, this is true, and gee, it's funny how many people associated with Trump seem to have had a lot they wanted hidden. Probably a coincidence. Otherwise, especially if you demonstrated integrity in your dealings with the man, you're probably fine.

Somehow I can’t imagine Trump choosing someone with integrity in the first place

[Zaktar]

Somehow I can’t imagine Trump choosing someone with integrity in the first place

Eh many of the people who worked for him have demonstrated integrity; some let their ambition blind them to reality, some were incredibly naive, some thought they could contain his damage, believed in the work, etc. Well, maybe many is too strong a word...

[Warning]

-45 on Twitter.

When you think smoking is spelled smocking... dude can’t even get through a denial without admitting he comitted a crime.

Donald Jeenius Trump strikes again, making America great one fucktarded tweet at a time. Best words folks, very good genes.

[ati87]

A 36 year old saying 'no' to one of the most powerful jobs in all of the US Government is a joke.

Like a complete joke. Almost nobody says no to ANY Administration job for a young Presidency entering year 3. This isn't year 7 and people aren't wanting to be ineffective lame-duck time nominees. This is year 3, prior to re-election. The line for every job, ESPECIALLY THIS JOB, should be around the block.

And the 36 year old says 'no'.

This Administration is a few losses away from being Trump, his personal secretary, Rudy Gulani (who fetches the dry cleaning, sweeps the floors and acts as a foot rest), and Sarah Huckabee Sanders Who Cant Get A Job Anywhere Else.
.

A small correction the 36 year old says ''where is the exit''. How many people do you know that would rather leave there current job than to avoid a promotion....if anything this feels like a sailor abandoning ship.

If you think about this from every person who has been fired or left this one may the worst one yet. This guy has a really good job as Chief of staff of Mike Pence and he is given up his current role to avoid Trump.

[Kujako]

At this point you don't accept a job offer from Trump unless you want to ruin your career.

Or if you want to write a book.

[Breccia]

-45 on Twitter.

I love this line of thinking. It's just so...so...spoiled rich white kid. "I haven't faced the consequences yet, therefore, I never will."

Doctor: "Your weight is up, your cholesterol is up, your physical activity is down and your BMI is through the roof."
Patient: "Am I having a heart attack right now?"
Doctor: "Well, no, but your vitals are -- "
Patient: "NO HEART ATTACK! OM NOM NOM NOM!"

Trump, and everyone that follows his word and deed as gospel, are going with "Because Mueller hasn't said the words 'Trump' and 'collusion' yet, therefore, he never will." Trump also conveniently forgets to mention those other crimes...

[ati87]

I love this line of thinking. It's just so...so...spoiled rich white kid. "I haven't faced the consequences yet, therefore, I never will."

Doctor: "Your weight is up, your cholesterol is up, your physical activity is down and your BMI is through the roof."
Patient: "Am I having a heart attack right now?"
Doctor: "Well, no, but your vitals are -- "
Patient: "NO HEART ATTACK! OM NOM NOM NOM!"

Trump, and everyone that follows his word and deed as gospel, are going with "Because Mueller hasn't said the words 'Trump' and 'collusion' yet, therefore, he never will." Trump also conveniently forgets to mention those other crimes...

You know the contradiction is of course that collusion by itself is not a crime but assisting a crime is a crime. The I'm not even mentioning the possibility of obstruction and why Trump would want to obstruct a investigation (what is he afraid of)

[Cebel]

I love this line of thinking. It's just so...so...spoiled rich white kid. "I haven't faced the consequences yet, therefore, I never will."

Doctor: "Your weight is up, your cholesterol is up, your physical activity is down and your BMI is through the roof."
Patient: "Am I having a heart attack right now?"
Doctor: "Well, no, but your vitals are -- "
Patient: "NO HEART ATTACK! OM NOM NOM NOM!"

Trump, and everyone that follows his word and deed as gospel, are going with "Because Mueller hasn't said the words 'Trump' and 'collusion' yet, therefore, he never will." Trump also conveniently forgets to mention those other crimes...

The Mueller investigation is going to be about as impactful as every other BS investigation since 45 took office.

It will do nothing important. It will be a complete waste of time and tax payer dollars. Not because 45 is innocent or guilty... But because our government is apparently full of brain dead idiots.

[Machismo]

The Mueller investigation is going to be about as impactful as every other BS investigation since 45 took office.

It will do nothing important. It will be a complete waste of time and tax payer dollars. Not because 45 is innocent or guilty... But because our government is apparently full of brain dead idiots.

What about the indictments that already happened? It's a shame so many people around here want to cheer on and defend corrupt assholes like Trump.

[Felya]

The Mueller investigation is going to be about as impactful as every other BS investigation since 45 took office.

It’s going to have over a dozen indictments, guilty pleas and convictions?

It will do nothing important. It will be a complete waste of time and tax payer dollars. Not because 45 is innocent or guilty... But because our government is apparently full of brain dead idiots.

The money recovered from Manafort, has actually paid for the investigation. The way it’s going, Trump Organization might end up paying the millions they took from tax payers when filing bankruptcy several times. This is looking to be a major recovery of funds. Nothing in comparison to the tax cut Trump gave him self costing the deficit, but it’s something.

[Flarelaine]

TBH even if they had voting by mail (which obviously many people must do, and is tremendously popular in states with it), I'd still go to the polling booth every election day.

There is something... I guess the word is sacrosanct?... about the communal act of lining up to vote.

Funny thing. It sounds cheesy. But it is still true. It is indeed a communal act to demonstrate commitment to democracy and willingness to participate.

[Adam Jensen]

Trump believes Europe needed America in WWI and WWII because "a European military didn't work very well"

Uh . . . they didn't have a "European military" in either war. You had multiple militaries fighting together, but they were separate militaries. There was no unified European military in WWII's France, there was just France and the British Expeditionary Force. There was no unified European military in Poland, which is a big part of why it got wtf-crushed so fast. Poland couldn't stand between the juggernauts of the Third Reich and the Soviet Union.

If in this alternative history in Trump's addled mind where Europe had some "European military" maybe both wars would have gone better for the Entente/Allies and maybe wouldn't have come to American intervention.

Then we have this gem:

Trump believes his administration has accomplished more than any other administration, ever, in history.

*somewhere the UN is laughing*

Like . . . really dude? More than FDR who got us out of the Great Depression and through most of WWII?
More than Lincoln who got the Thirteenth Amendment passed while handling the Civil War?

What have you accomplished other than a tax cut for the 1%? Your party had control of both houses of congress and couldn't even repeal Obamacare!

I mean, if you're measuring accomplishments in the number of cheeseburgers mashed down by a single president, then okay, I agree.
Or if you're measuring it in the number of criminal charges and indictments on your sycophants, then I agree.
Or if you're measuring it by the number of people who've quit, resigned or got fired and then replaced, then I agree. (HR must be busy at the WH)

[Breccia]

Trump believes his administration has accomplished more than any other administration, ever, in history.

And, like the rabid fanbase posters such as @lockedout and @Dacien he finds it harder and harder to say why. What has he done in the "not even" two years that better than Reagan's eight years? Be honest, fanbase!

You know what? Time for another 24 hour timer. If the rabid fanbase does not come up with a specific, concrete list of things Trump has successfully done, with the intent of holding it up against 1981-1989, that is admission that Trump is not just a liar, but a failure. If they come up with an appropriate list of things Trump has done -- even a list of things I disagree with -- I'll publicly admit they have a point. But bear in mind: I'm floating you a softball. I'm not saying "all of American history". Just Reagan.

Good luck. I didn't pick Reagan out of a hat, by the way.

- - - Updated - - -

Every crack in the GOP's adhesive to Trump is telling.

Now there are signs that Infrastructure Week 4: Getting The Grand Drag On will be canceled before hitting the streets. The trillion dollars of free infrastructure, whose budget was never clear and whose payment method was questionable at best. Remember, the plan involved Trump "priming the pump," a phrase he invented according to himself, with some tax breaks for construction companies, including letting them put out their own bonds for cheap. In exchange for this, of course, a lot of roads, tunnels and bridges would suddenly become private toll properties, but the federal government would shrug and say "when I said I would reduce taxes, I was being literal but not serious".

In any event, nothing about this has happened. Except for Trump putting a tariff on steel, the fourth most used construction ingredient after wood, concrete, and ballistic fiber why is everything so expensive to repair? They've made three passes, this is the fourth, and oddly enough, the second to be interrupted by Nazis (the sentencing counts).

The GOP have made, to the best of my knowledge, no moves on Infrastructure Week 4. I could have missed it, but the fact that I had to go rummaging around conservative news sites for any scrap at all is damning enough.

The GOP is admitting Trump can't even fix a pothole.

- - - Updated - - -

Well, the court case brought as red states were sued to continue funding Planned Parenthood reached SCOTUS, after attempted rapist Kavanaugh was pushed through. To nobody's surprise, SCOTUS ruled that states can cut the funding, even though federal --

"They refused to hear the case."

...I'm sorry, what?

"SCOTUS refused to hear the case. Lower court ruling, saying states must continue funding, stands."

Huh...well, what did Kavanaugh say in the dissenting argument?

"Nothing. He didn't sign it."

Ooo...kay...wow. Didn't see that coming.

[Ripster42]

Trump believes Europe needed America in WWI and WWII because "a European military didn't work very well"

I mean, it completely ignores (especially in ww the duece) the fact that it took the combined might of the US, russia, the uk, canada (the list goes on) to stop one "european military."

[Breccia]

And now, thanks to Axios, it's time for the I Don't Exist roundup!

1. Michael Flynn, National Security Adviser #1
2. Sean Spicer, Press Secretary
3. Reince Priebus, White House chief of staff #1
4. The Mooch, the Mooch, the Mooch has been fired
5. Steve Bannon, White House Chief Strategist (admit it: you forgot about that one)
6. Katie Walsh, White House deputy chief of staff
7. Michael Dubke, Communications Director
8. Sebastian Gorka, Deputy Assistant to the President
9. K.T. McFarland, Deputy National Security Adviser
10. Tom Price, Secretary of Health and Human Services
11. Omarosa Manigault Newman, Communications Director
12. James Comey, FBI Director
13. Andrew McCabe, Deputy Director of FBI
14. Dina Powell, Deputy National Security Adviser
15. Walter Shaub, Director of the Office of Government Ethics
16. Angella Reid, Chief Usher (fired for being black)
17. Rob Porter, Serial Wife Beater
18. Josh Raffel, Senior Communications Official
19. White House becomes Hopeless
20. Gary Cohn, Director of the National Economic Council
21. John McEntee, Personal Aide to the President
22. Rex Tillerson, Secretary of State
23. H.R. McMaster, National Security Adviser #2
24. David Shulkin, Secretary of Veterans Affairs
25. Michael Anton, National Security Council Spokesperson
26. Tom Bossert, Homeland Security Adviser
27. Scott Pruitt, EPA Administrator
28. Nikki Haley, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
29. Jeff Sessions, Attorney General
30. Mira Ricardel, Deputy National Security Adviser
31. John Kelly, White House chief of staff #2
32. Nick Ayers, Chief of staff to the Vice President

"Whoa whoa whoa! What gives for that last one? Ayers wasn't working for Trump."

True, but he did work in the White House. Oh, and Trump offered him a job, and he declined. It's a technicality, but I'm counting it.

For ease of reading, red are the more significant even of these significant roles, and bolded refers to the Mueller investigation.

- - - Updated - - -

In the ongoing attempt to win the Nobel Prize and making peace with North Korea, Trump sanctions three high-ranking NK officials.

Mnuchin said "direct departments that perpetrate the regime’s brutal state-sponsored censorship activities, human rights violations and abuses, and other abuses in order to suppress and control the population" while citing a 2016 law, so, thanks Obama!

"Wait, what's wrong with NK officials being sanctioned? They're basically torturing their people to death."

Oh, nothing. But this is just like the arrest of a Chinese exec. By itself, not a problem. But Trump was trying to work with these people, and his words and actions are sabotaging that.

Also, Mnuchin said "The United States has consistently condemned the North Korean regime for its flagrant and egregious abuses of human rights and fundamental freedoms, and this Administration will continue to take action against human rights abusers around the globe." Again, not a problem by itself. But Trump pulled out of the UN Human Rights Council so it's actually hypocritical for Mnuchin to do the right thing here.

[Orbitus]

The Mueller investigation is going to be about as impactful as every other BS investigation since 45 took office.

It will do nothing important. It will be a complete waste of time and tax payer dollars. Not because 45 is innocent or guilty... But because our government is apparently full of brain dead idiots.

You do know, that the Mueller investigation, is MAKING MONEY, not wasting money, right?

[Breccia]

So, with the tax cut for the rich, NAFTA 1.0.0.2 Trump forcing China into a trade deal and suddenly coal being magically clean and a big seller, 2019 was supposed to look really good for business profits.

That was then. This is now.

Wall Street analysts have slammed the brakes on estimates for profit growth for S&P 500 companies, which had accelerated for much of the year. Two months ago, 2019 profit growth was pegged at 10.2 percent; it is now seen at 8.2 percent, and growing ranks of doubters reckon growth could slow to half that rate or less.

“It may be more in the line of 3 to 4 percent,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago, adding the market has yet to price that in.

“The risk to that estimate is the downside. Right now, the equity market is focused more on trade than they are earnings.”

Morgan Stanley’s outlook warned of more than a 50 percent chance of a “modest earnings recession,” or two quarters of year-over-year profit declines. That last occurred when earnings declined for four straight quarters starting in the third quarter of 2015.

In recent weeks, top strategists at RBC Capital Markets, BNP Paribas and Bank of America Merrill Lynch have forecast 2019 earnings per share growth below the rate compiled by Refinitiv, an aggregate of estimates from analysts covering individual companies.

While the "three to four percent" would still be above the rate of inflation, it would not be by much. Major companies -- the article says especially major tech companies -- are simply not going to do as well as hoped. And we know what happens when investors get spooked.

- - - Updated - - -

Every crack in the GOP's adhesive to Trump is telling.

Which is what this Trump supporter is now admitting.

Conservative writer Bre Payton attributes the Trump administration’s constant turnover to a general lack of faith in the president and his agenda, as well as concerns over Robert Mueller's ongoing investigation.

“It’s just interesting that a lot of the movement people have gone to [Mike] Pence and not really for the West Wing and for the Trump administration,” Payton, a staff writer for The Federalist, told Hill.TV’s Krystal Ball and Buck Sexton during a panel discussion on Monday.

“I think the reason why you see so much discord and infighting and leaking, frankly, is because there’s not a lot of people that really believe in the things the president is trying to do,” she added.

President Trump confirmed on Saturday that White House Chief of Staff John Kelly will leave his job by the end of the year, marking the latest shake-up in the White House. Kelly has been in the job since July 2017.

Although Trump's White House has become known for frequent turnover among senior staff, Trump's predecessor, former President Obama, also had four chiefs of staff and one interim chief of staff during his eight years in office.

Payton argues that the even though the chief of staff position used to offer a relatively easy rise to prominence, working at the White House has become less glamorous as the administration remains the subject of special counsel Robert Mueller's ongoing Russia investigation.

“That’s really not the case in this kind of climate, and the more high profile you are, the worse it’s going to be for you because the swamp doesn’t like this president,” she said.

Bolded text for hilarity, but other than that, she's making the same point. The GOP is less and less with Trump, and deserting him. I mean, except for the people Trump fired, of course.