Former Google Exec: AI Will Replace 40 Percent of Jobs in 15 Years

[Najnaj]

The problem is, with robots they will be able to do intricate things that only humans were able to do for so many centuries. If you live in a developed country expect UBI to be a thing when that level of automation comes down the line.

Not sure you read my post.

[Unholyground]

Not sure you read my post.

Ya just wait until the cheap China robots come out and start malfunctioning and hurting people lol.

[UnderTheWeather]

You all laugh now, but you won't be when what he said starts becoming a reality at the 10-year mark and then things escalate from there.

[buck008]

You can not compare 2 cases of human labor being replaced by machines?

That they are not identical does not mean that there are not similarities. A lot of similarities in this case.

Well, if you mean that what began in the industrial revolution actually did eventually kill industries like farming and make it easier for huge corporations to take over what used to be done by smaller independent growers, than sure, they are similar. Industrialization and automation have already killed manufacturing. Those jobs are gone and never coming back. Retail and customer service are next, and that accounts for 23-25% of the workforce. We are coming to an employment situation that humanity has no parallel for in its history. That's not hyperbole. We've literally never dealt with this. This is what would happen if the industrial revolution affected nearly every industry on the planet at the same time.

[d00mGuArD]

You all laugh now, but you won't be when what he said starts becoming a reality at the 10-year mark and then things escalate from there.

Those that are now 20-30 can expect crisis to hit them when they are about 40-50 year old.
And you can't easily respec job at 50! They should prepare now

The problem is, with robots they will be able to do intricate things that only humans were able to do for so many centuries. If you live in a developed country expect UBI to be a thing when that level of automation comes down the line.

There will almost certainly NOT be a UBI. By spreading such misinformation, you don't let people get prepared for what is to come.
Bad guy!

[Kharadin]

Seems legit. As much as the logical response to this occurrence would be something like UBI to deal with the unemployment I don't necessarily trust governments to implement good ideas so I'm not certain that will be the response.

But seems like only good things that come from this anyway, if handled correctly. Science research will be some of the last jobs to get taken by AI so I've got a little while yet before I'm rendered obsolete. Although taking some UBI and following other passions would be cool too. Bring on 2034.

[Kokolums]

If this carries on then socialism is inevitable.

Resources will be automated and dug out of the ground, processed in automated factories, shipped in automated driverless cars and put into automated stores that dont need cashiers.

We will get to a point where we can produce without any human labour but what will be the point of producing when nobody has jobs and money to pay for anything?

Automation will lead to the end of capitalism cause it will no longer be needed cause next to nobody except the factory owners will have any money to buy anything.

You cant keep filling up the world with stuff if there is no system that allows most of the population to actually buy it and consume it.

There is no "end" to capitalism. We saw what happened in the USSR. When the state owned and controlled the means of production, it simply stopped caring about the plight of the people. Once that happens, the people take it upon themselves to meet their own needs by creating black markets. These black markets are capitalism being injected into socialism to fill the gaps. Then over time, the black markets begin to prove to be more efficient at distributing goods and services so they get bigger and bigger until socialism is overthown and you return to capitalism again.

Late stage capitalism where all the wealth is concentrated in the 1% could result in a socialist revolt, but in that regard socialism is more about resetting capitalism than it is a viable economic philosophy in its own right.

[Najnaj]

Well, if you mean that what began in the industrial revolution actually did eventually kill industries like farming and make it easier for huge corporations to take over what used to be done by smaller independent growers, than sure, they are similar. Industrialization and automation have already killed manufacturing. Those jobs are gone and never coming back. Retail and customer service are next, and that accounts for 23-25% of the workforce. We are coming to an employment situation that humanity has no parallel for in its history. That's not hyperbole. We've literally never dealt with this. This is what would happen if the industrial revolution affected nearly every industry on the planet at the same time.

The industrial revolution did affect nearly every field on the planet. Peoples lives changed dramatically and most tasks took a fraction of the time to complete. The industrialized world went from >80% rural population to <20% and it was supposedly the end of civilization... sound familiar?

Little things we do barely think of today were huge undertakings 200 years ago. Buying a shirt could cost a months salary due to the enormous amount of human labor involved. Running a home was a full time occupation and then some. Before engines and modern transport, most people had never been more than a few hundred miles/km from where they were born when they died.

Doomsayers told us that the machines were stealing our jobs and they were of course correct technically. In reality so many new jobs were developed that hiring became problematic. All of this was driven by vanity and wants, not by needs. There is no indication that the same will not happen this time around. None of us will want to be the Lord of Grantham with a fleet of robot servants when all of our neighbors are the same. New wants will come to set us apart and this will create new jobs and field.... just like it did 150ish years ago.

[Draco-Onis]

Pretty much.

It will happen, many low level data/number crunching grunts and secretaries could be replaced by it but not within that timeframe. The tech still barely works in proof of concept scenarios and is a long way from being robust enough to be productive.

15 years is conservative ask stock brokers and day traders about how many jobs and opportunities they have lost to technology. It amazes me people forget how fast things progress, self driving cars can only be stopped by regulation and millions of jobs will be affected. AI doesn't have to be perfect it is already causing damage very simple things you don't think of now have caused people to be out of work.

[Unholyground]

There will almost certainly NOT be a UBI. By spreading such misinformation, you don't let people get prepared for what is to come.
Bad guy!

There will be in Canada, we are already preparing for it and then we can remove the wasteful employment divisions of the government that spend ridiculously large amounts of tax payer money that could just go to help people get to a livable wage. People against UBI do not fully understand what it means or how it works and are just anti human and do not deserve my time.

[Dendrek]

I don't think a lot of people here really understand how far along AI is right now.

Machine learning is making it possible to create a blank-AI and then feed it data until the AI learns how to process that data. An AI can be taught a range of skills using this method without requiring a developer figure out how to process this data in a computer-friendly way. If you imagine, for example, how you might try to teach a computer to look at a picture and determine with near perfect accuracy if there's a dog in that picture -- what would you tell the computer to look for? This has been a daunting task for a very long time. But now with machine learning this has become trivial. Just feed the AI pictures, some containing dogs and some not, and let the AI figure out the difference on its own. The end-result is an AI with the ability to mimic or even surpass human intelligence in the specific scope the AI has been trained in.

Among the accomplishments of machine learning include the ability to accurately parse pictures, to translate written or spoken language, to develop engineering solutions to complicated problems, and to outplay humans at various games -- including, most infamously, the game of Go; a game once thought to be impossible for a machine to play at the top level because it's not a game that can be brute forced.

While some of these accomplishments seem trivial compared to replacing 40% of jobs, all that is really required is for an AI to be able to replicate all of the processes that go into performing those jobs. If you assume that problem solving, making intelligent choices, or requiring creativity will keep your job safe, you should be aware that every one of these skills can be mimicked by AI.

[Kokolums]

The problem is, with robots they will be able to do intricate things that only humans were able to do for so many centuries. If you live in a developed country expect UBI to be a thing when that level of automation comes down the line.

UBI will fail. A world that revolves around UBI will result in the Amish becoming super rich, quickly followed by legions of people rushing to covert to Amish. The only way UBI is going to work long term is if everyone is on it and everything is strictly controlled. With the Amish outside the system, they will quickly gobble up all the resources.

You'll have most the population on UBI with everything regimented and parceled out, and then the Amish getting free reign to assign resources however they see fit. Amish will win that economic battle pretty fast.

[Unholyground]

UBI will fail. A world that revolves around UBI will result in the Amish becoming super rich, quickly followed by legions of people rushing to covert to Amish. The only way UBI is going to work long term is if everyone is on it and everything is strictly controlled. With the Amish outside the system, they will quickly gobble up all the resources.

You also don't get it, people still have to work if they want to have shit above and beyond survival, UBI makes it so you can survive regardless of how much you are able to work. If you are only able to work part time or find part time work for example it will top up your wage to a survivable amount. It is not just a hand out, and most people are ok with working, a lot of issues now are that full time employment is hard to come in a lot of places, especially around here where I live. All the taxes people pay for employment related branches of the government will almost cover UBI.

[d00mGuArD]

There will be in Canada, we are already preparing for it and then we can remove the wasteful employment divisions of the government that spend ridiculously large amounts of tax payer money that could just go to help people get to a livable wage. People against UBI do not fully understand what it means or how it works and are just anti human and do not deserve my time.

Oh I would absolotely LOVE to get free money! I want UBI! The bigger the better! Any amount is welcome! 20k per year, 100k per year UBI I would love anything!!
"Free money? No thanks!" said no one ever!

Just saying that since it will never happen, it may be bad idea convincing people that it will happen.
By doing that you take away from them chance to prepare for a future without out it... which is what will happen

[Unholyground]

Oh I would absolotely LOVE to get free money! I want UBI! The bigger the better! Any amount is welcome! 20k per year, 100k per year UBI I would love anything!!
"Free money? No thanks!" said no one ever!

Just saying that since it will never happen, it may be bad idea convincing people that it will happen.
By doing that you take away from them chance to prepare for a future without out it... which is what will happen

You seem to hate progress, if the government expects us to pay taxes and keep them afloat it is their job to do the same for its people if they are not providing gainful employment for every able body. The government works for you not the other way around.

[DSRilk]

Look at a programmer, someone who comes to work and sits at a computer all day long.

You wouldn't even need a fancy robot to replace him, just load the programming AI on his computer and you've replaced him.

I'm not sure you understand what programmers do...

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Universal basic income would be a calamity for society. It will more likely be that legislation comes about that taxes business heavily who employ automation and or provides significant tax breaks for companies that have a certain threshold of human workers.

You can count on that not happening, big money businesses will not see their infinite profit increasing potential be taxed like that.

The taxation "plan" makes no sense. It just doesn't math out; it has nothing to do with big business fighting against legislation. If people have no income, they make no purchases. If they make no purchases, businesses make no money. In order for a business to thrive, the population must have money and spend it. That's why UBI makes sense and taxation as a replacement makes none.

[The Stormbringer]

Those that are now 20-30 can expect crisis to hit them when they are about 40-50 year old.
And you can't easily respec job at 50! They should prepare now

There will almost certainly NOT be a UBI. By spreading such misinformation, you don't let people get prepared for what is to come.
Bad guy!

Good thing I'm in IT... admittedly the lower echelons (only tier 2) but it'll be a while before that's getting replaced. They'll have to replace tier 1 first, and hopefully by then I'll be tier 3.

[buck008]

The industrial revolution did affect nearly every field on the planet. Peoples lives changed dramatically and most tasks took a fraction of the time to complete. The industrialized world went from >80% rural population to <20% and it was supposedly the end of civilization... sound familiar?

Little things we do barely think of today were huge undertakings 200 years ago. Buying a shirt could cost a months salary due to the enormous amount of human labor involved. Running a home was a full time occupation and then some. Before engines and modern transport, most people had never been more than a few hundred miles/km from where they were born when they died.

Doomsayers told us that the machines were stealing our jobs and they were of course correct technically. In reality so many new jobs were developed that hiring became problematic. All of this was driven by vanity and wants, not by needs. There is no indication that the same will not happen this time around. None of us will want to be the Lord of Grantham with a fleet of robot servants when all of our neighbors are the same. New wants will come to set us apart and this will create new jobs and field.... just like it did 150ish years ago.

Yes, the customer service industry sprung up to soak up those jobs. That’s the one that is going. Also, most of the rest of manufacturing and some minor IT. The Industrial Revolution hit when many people were subsistence living. That is not the case now. Back then, it freed people up from farming to do other things. Theoretically, this could free people up to follow more creative pursuits that AI can’t fill, but how well do those pay? Still going to have massive unemployment with no realistic way to employ people that want to work.

[Adam Jensen]

Looks like low intelligent people will need to actually try and improve now instead of taking jobs that can be replaced by robots!

Which is still a major problem because there isn't enough skilled labor to go around.

And I like the veiled insult to the people who don't hold skilled labor jobs

[Daws]

40% in 15 years is quite frankly garbage. Whilst the potential of AI to replace vast sections of human jobs is not to be underestimated it is nowhere near capable of doing that in such a short space of time given it's current state. It's also ignoring the issue of business can only survive if there is someone to buy there product if 40% of people loose jobs and there's no other jobs to go to you effectively cripple the economy as there won't be enough people to buy products or pay taxes not to mention crime would doubtless rocket under such conditions. Beyond this it's is highly likely that such a shift to AI would be met with mass protests, riots and hackers being lorded as heroes every time they go in and cripple a companies AI network. If you want a realistic uptake of AI with out massive social problems you'll have to at least double the number of years and halve the percentage this person is stating.