Hallow's End 2019 Now Live

[Syce]

That's not how math works, dude. It's not "one of one hundred runs it will drop". It's one percent chance, period, first run or one hundredth or one thousandth. Someone could run this every day it's available, every year for a decade, and still never see it.

exactly, people keep forgetting how percentages work. just because something may be 1 in say 10 chances doesn't mean you will get it if you do it 10 times. What 1 in 10 means, each and every single attempt you have a 10% chance of it dropping.

[Logwyn]

Why do we need a guide?? Its the same as last year?!?!

[Oneirophobia]

Such a shame no updates. They really want to keep players subscribed. I was hoping to have a reason to log in. Guess not.


LOL at copy and paste blue post from last year.

Such a missed opportunity. An expac that has both Bwonsamdi and the Drust witches but has zero hallow's end updates?

At least Brewfest got updated I guess.. for some reason...

[Powerogue]

They really need to update this one next year then. Sylvanas's recent actions really alter the meaning of the holiday for the Forsaken and that should be reflected.

[korijenkins]

Am I the only one who misses the times when holidays were updated every year?

[trapmaster]

Multi Billionaire Company couldn't bother to be more CREATIVE to holiday anymore? LOL

[imperialcruzer]

That's not how math works, dude. It's not "one of one hundred runs it will drop". It's one percent chance, period, first run or one hundredth or one thousandth. Someone could run this every day it's available, every year for a decade, and still never see it.

I'm talking the odds of seeing the mount after taking a certain number of 1% chances in a row. Your statement is correct that each attempt is 1%. A person could also keep trying and never get the mount. However that person is in the statistical low side.

[cface]

Multi Billionaire Company couldn't bother to be more CREATIVE to holiday anymore? LOL

Their only "success" is going back in time and recode classic for us, while the fans screams #nochanges cause our trust in them is that little. Can't wait for wc3 remastered as well.

[WasteStable]

Thanks for creating this thread it is very informative for me thanks !

[Misuteri]

I got my Headless Horseman’s mount and quit before the next one.... it made me happy.

[RCA]

No Trick or Treats Zandalar or Kul Tiras Achievements, what’s up with that.

[VekniDarkIron]

I'm talking the odds of seeing the mount after taking a certain number of 1% chances in a row. Your statement is correct that each attempt is 1%. A person could also keep trying and never get the mount. However that person is in the statistical low side.

No, their "statistical side" will never change. One percent (or whatever it is), period, forever, no matter how many times, no matter what.

[kaintk]

is it a copy paste from the 10 last years ? :P

[Nnyco]

Am I the only one who misses the times when holidays were updated every year?

Ah yea the good old days of this never happened.

[Psygon]

Please, this is only for Retail.

Get with the program!

[Dragoth12]

That's not how math works, dude. It's not "one of one hundred runs it will drop". It's one percent chance, period, first run or one hundredth or one thousandth. Someone could run this every day it's available, every year for a decade, and still never see it.

It is kind of how it works actually. While you are correct that every single run has a 1% chance of dropping, the repeated attempts do actually increase the likelihood that you would be successful. It's a process in the mathematical world called the Bernoulli process.

The easiest way to answer it is to reverse the question: “what's the probability that you don't win at all in 140 attempts?”

It's easier because now you're asking about an exact number: the probability that you'll see exactly 0 wins in 140 tries. That's just the base probability of losing (99%) multiplied by itself 140 times, or 0.99¹4⁰, which equals about 0.25.

So you have a 25% chance of losing, therefore you have a 75% of winning at least once.

So....that is how math works. Look it up.

[Miguel85NYC]

BLIZZARD IS SO LAZY!!! In Final fantasy XIV, the Holiday events are always different each year.. BLizzard needs to learn from SE

[Merin]

This games events continue to be the most embarrassing shit in the hobby.

[Dilbon]

That's not how math works, dude.

But that's exactly how math works. While each individual attempt is 1% chance your overall chance increases with each try. It's easier to score a bullseye with 10 darts than with one.

[Muajin76]

It would be fd up if Classic got a special Hallow's end event and not retail. :P