Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Thepersona]

So far all I got is we got a plan to make a plan but not sure about the plan for the plan trust us.

Trump doesnt have a plan (or to be more precise, he does not have a long term plan). He wants the markets to believe that he does, so the DOW rallies and goes up to pre-corona levels.

[Breccia]

Trump doesnt have a plan

Trump's attempts to shore up the DOW numbers by saying "good times are coming" is crying wolf. It didn't even work, as the timeline of yesterday shows -- the last-minute rally was well after Trump said anything.

Trump does have a plan, of sorts. He's the only one pushing for a payroll tax cut. As a reminder, Obama did that to stimulate the economy by cutting it 2%. Okay, what I should say is "Obama signed the bill" to be a little bit more helpful in context. I don't think the President can just voluntarily refuse to collect taxes.

Obama also said it gave the average American $1,000 a year. Which was pretty accurate.

Assuming such a thing could somehow get through Pelosi's House after Pelosi shat on the idea in public, a $1,000 handout during election year is a pretty effective bribe...unless you're one of the people that gets sick, in which case, at best it mitigates the damage and at worse it's insultingly cheap, like this:



That's why the GOP and the Democrats are talking about conditional handouts. Specifically, the GOP to damaged companies (I disagree, but it at least makes sense) and the Democrats are talking about sick leave and testing/treatment costs. No matter what, the coronavirus will affect you, but it will affect people in dramatically different ways. The effect on the stock market is devastating, but as we keep saying, the stock market isn't the economy -- even when it's bad, that's still true. Most of it is owned by the rich, and $1,000 won't reverse their losses, nor do they need it. I've seen reports that this will hit GDP growth by 0.2%, maybe more. US GDP is about $20 trillion, yes I'm rounding aggressively. 0.2% of that is $40 billion, which in turn is about $200 per taxpayer. Yes, that's significant, but $1,000 is overcompensating.

Others will, well, die. But far more will get sick and rack up costs their insurer, or as we've seen recently, their lack of insurer won't cover. Or take sick days their boss doesn't give them, because hourly wages don't work like that. Or, as we could see in the next couple months, get laid off. $1,000 divided by minimum wage is 140 hours, so, in theory someone working a garbage level job could afford to take two weeks off if they get sick or are at risk of being sick. Everyone else gets less. This article from 2 days ago lists a price of

One of the stories circulating on social media about the high cost of coronavirus testing involves a man who returned to Miami from China with “flu-like symptoms.”

Worried that he might have coronavirus, he went to the emergency department for testing.

The initial cost of his visit was $3,270.

However, this was for the visit and testing for other upper respiratory pathogens, including the flu, which he tested positive for. He was not tested for coronavirus.

Hospital visits get expensive in a hurry. And while the ACA capped deductibles, that resets on the calendar year. Pretty sure. It's March, so, you haven't paid your deductibles yet. It could be an ugly up-front payment that, admittedly, would stop you from paying the rest of the year, so there's that.

If you have an ACA legal plan. Which not everyone does.

Simply put, a payroll tax cut like Obama will give too much money to people who aren't affected, and too little to those that are. We need a sniper rifle, not a hand grenade.

EDIT: Oh, right, and I should say that other informed posters have commented already, saying such things as "it was stupid when Obama did it too" and "he's planning on cutting all the payroll taxes which will just gut the Treasury". So even with the situation I set up as a starting point, it only gets worse from there.

EDIT EDIT OH GOD INCEPTION: As I was writing this, the DOW bounced up and back down, and -1138 is the state of affairs.

[Hobb]

*snip*

Get ready for it to get worst, WHO has just declared the coronvirus a pandemic.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...hnk/index.html

[Omega10]

Not sure if this quote or this quote.

Regardless, the DOW has 30 companies, Boeing is one of them. But because the DOW is weighted by various factors, such as price and stock splits, it's possible for some of the 30 to, well, "be more equal than others". It's been a while since I checked, but, in 2017 Boeing was the third highest "weighty" member of the DOW. Caterpillar is also in trouble and also on the list, but not as high.

The DOW also kicks people off every so often. Boeing's crippling issues mean they could easily be discarded.

Boeing bounced off the 200 level for a bit before finally dropping through. It is currently down 30 to just below 200.

Horrifying article: https://finance.yahoo.com/m/f0e232a0...wn-13-825.html

Title: Boeing to Draw Down $13.825 Billion Loan

Other Boeing related articles are merely bad. $13 billion is a lot of cash to blow through

[Zan15]

Not sure if this quote or this quote.

Regardless, the DOW has 30 companies, Boeing is one of them. But because the DOW is weighted by various factors, such as price and stock splits, it's possible for some of the 30 to, well, "be more equal than others". It's been a while since I checked, but, in 2017 Boeing was the third highest "weighty" member of the DOW. Caterpillar is also in trouble and also on the list, but not as high.

The DOW also kicks people off every so often. Boeing's crippling issues mean they could easily be discarded.

of course this is why the DOW is one of the worst tracking index but the media loves to push it.

they really should be using the SP500 at a min as the standard. They don't even report on the Russell index's

but its all about the money! the fees! the Index funds!

- - - Updated - - -

What are we down from the recent peak? is it 20% yet?

I posted it before but here they are the numbers for each to be down 20%.

@Breccia

Dow 23,654.97 is the new bottom to look for. 20% drop

SP500- 2,714 -


Nasdaq - 7,870



If all 3 hit those numbers the bull market is officially over with the 11th anniversary

[Rasulis]

Boeing bounced off the 200 level for a bit before finally dropping through. It is currently down 30 to just below 200.

Horrifying article: https://finance.yahoo.com/m/f0e232a0...wn-13-825.html

Title: Boeing to Draw Down $13.825 Billion Loan

Other Boeing related articles are merely bad. $13 billion is a lot of cash to blow through

The thing is that in the commercial airline industry, you only have 2 choices for airplanes - Boeing or Airbus. Yeah it is bad right now. However, people will start flying again one of these days and they should recover. Hopefully. Otherwise, it won't be easy to find a replacement for Boeing.

Overall, it is bad. There is no way to window dress that fact. However, unless you are heavily invested in oil/gas, consumer discretionary fun related sector (casino & gaming, hotels, resorts, cruiseline and restaurant), financials, industrials & transportation, and materials (except gold), YTD you should be at or just below parity.

I have some electric and water utility funds, mainly for the dividend, and they are at or slightly above parity YTD.

Large cap tech funds are at or slightly above parity YTD. FSCSX, one of my largest holding, is still at +0.4% YTD. Keyword “still.”

Mid cap tech funds are at or just below parity YTD.

Once you take out the aforementioned sectors, both consumer discretionary and staples are both around parity YTD also.

Financials sector is a wreck. Second worst after Energy. First Republic has a tool that allows me to look at the funds exposure to oil/gas debts. The financial sector funds’ performance can be correlated directly to their exposure to that debts.

[Zan15]

Others will, well, die. But far more will get sick and rack up costs their insurer, or as we've seen recently, their lack of insurer won't cover. Or take sick days their boss doesn't give them, because hourly wages don't work like that. Or, as we could see in the next couple months, get laid off. $1,000 divided by minimum wage is 140 hours, so, in theory someone working a garbage level job could afford to take two weeks off if they get sick or are at risk of being sick. Everyone else gets less. This article from 2 days ago lists a price of


Hospital visits get expensive in a hurry. And while the ACA capped deductibles, that resets on the calendar year. Pretty sure. It's March, so, you haven't paid your deductibles yet. It could be an ugly up-front payment that, admittedly, would stop you from paying the rest of the year, so there's that.

If you have an ACA legal plan. Which not everyone does.


.

Almost all the major insurance companies have now moved all related Virus charges/services to the "No cost sharing/ded/copay" bucket and have all also made new rules that they will cover all "non network" provider "in network" to prevent all surprise balance billings by those ancillary charges.

So basically "free" test for the patients.

Most of the second tier insurance companies are starting to fall in line and the independents usually follow suit once under the same pressure.


But what this does cause is increased cost on the employer. If they are self funded, like most big companies its a direct cost to their bottom line. If they are not, then their premiums next year and for a few years after will be jacked to make up the difference. since hardly anyone gets 100% employer paid premiums the cost will be shared by both the employer and employee.

So eventually someone will have to pay for all this in the end and they will...not the insurance companies.
Insurance companies and business are also insured stop loss for huge claims outside of standards. So they will not be the ones abnormally hurt in the long term.

Employees however don't really have an "stop loss" option to reinsure their insurance.


Now can you see why we need M4A type system.....lol

[jdbond]

I still remember when Trump the economic genius was going to deliver 5% GDP growth. Amazing how narrative changes..

We going back to bashing Mexicans come election?

[Breccia]

Almost all the major insurance companies have now moved all related Virus charges/services to the "No cost sharing/ded/copay" bucket and have all also made new rules that they will cover all "non network" provider "in network" to prevent all surprise balance billings by those ancillary charges.

So basically "free" test for the patients.

The insured patients. Thanks, Obama.

- - - Updated - - -

I still remember when Trump the economic genius was going to deliver 5% GDP growth. Amazing how narrative changes.

To be fair, the coronavirus and oil drop would always have hurt.

But it's like any raid mechanic. If your sanity is under 20% before Thrall and you're out of orbs, the problem isn't that Thrall is too hard. The problem is you overextended yourself.

[Rasulis]

The insured patients. Thanks, Obama.

Hell. I never stopped thanking Obama and Nancy Pelosi (the real architect) for ACA. From the time they found my wife Chiari Malformation (2007) to the start of ACA in 2014, our insurance premium went up from around $300+ per month to $2,600. United Healthcare could not kick us off the insurance, but they certainly could jack up the premium. Freaking over $30 grand per year for health insurance. With my wife pre-existing condition we could not find any other insurance companies. When we finally switched to ACA compliant insurance in 2014, it went down $600 for my wife and I and two kids. It did go up yearly and maxxed out at slightly over $1,500 in 2019 just for my wife and I. Then my wife became eligible for Medicare and now I only need to pay for my own insurance around $600 per month.

[Zan15]

B- Dead cats never bounce twice! Till you throw them again the next day, sometimes it takes a couple days to walk up a higher flight of stairs...….

@Breccia God I hate being right. Why didn't you climb a bigger building to throw that cat off!!!!

- - - Updated - - -

The insured patients. Thanks, Obama.

Well for as slow as the feds are moving to cover the uninsured for anything virus related, states are moving a little faster.

I figure this will eventually be the one good thing both parties and trumpkin himself agree on and pass, retroactively....

- - - Updated - - -

I still remember when Trump the economic genius was going to deliver 5% GDP growth. Amazing how narrative changes..

We going back to bashing Mexicans come election?

Welp now Trump gets to understand and wonder how the fuck Obama was able to even get the 2% he was able to with a huge economic disaster hitting during his presidency.

[Fugus]

I forget what the official 20% mark was but the DOW is currently at 23,623.42

Down −1,394.74

[Fahrenheit]

I forget what the official 20% mark was but the DOW is currently at 23,623.42

Down −1,394.74

Dow - 23,654.97
SP500 - 2,714
Nasdaq - 7,870

We been flirting with -20% in all three the last hour or so.

[Zan15]

I forget what the official 20% mark was but the DOW is currently at 23,623.42

Down −1,394.74

grumble grumble.... ^ ^ ^ ^ its up there ^^^
20% drops equal:

Dow 23,654.97
SP500- 2,714
Nasdaq - 7,870

- - - Updated - - -

Dow - 23,654.97
SP500 - 2,714
Nasdaq - 7,870

We been flirting with -20% in the Dow
Aare about 20ish points from -20% in the S&P
Blew past -20% in the Nasdaq

REMEMBER

it has to CLOSE at or below those numbers!

last time trump lucked out because one index only hit like 19.4% or something like that

[Fahrenheit]

grumble grumble.... ^ ^ ^ ^ its up there ^^^
20% drops equal:

Dow 23,654.97
SP500- 2,714
Nasdaq - 7,870

- - - Updated - - -



REMEMBER

it has to CLOSE at or below those numbers!

last time trump lucked out because one index only hit like 19.4% or something like that

True, I suspect a minor rally in the last hour or so. But I feel like I said that a day or two ago and then the opposite happened... Either way, shit's going downhill fast.
PSA to those reading, prepare for extended stay-cations. Like 2 week minimum, maybe closer to a month.

[zenkai]

I'm about to do some heavy buying, will be nice once this panic is over with.

[Fahrenheit]

I'm about to do some heavy buying, will be nice once this panic is over with.

We aren't at the bottom, yet. But, your money, your investing strategy.

[Zan15]

Seems like the Nasdaq will once again save the day unless it tanks another 80-90 in an hour.
possible but I think if we don't have a 500 point rebound in the last hour we could hit 20% down in 2 of 3 markets

[Low Hanging Fruit]

So I take it we are about to get a GOP version of "to big to fail" filled with a lot of spin on how its different. Remember.. Trump would have let them all go under! But its different now.. his head.. and not someone else's is the one that rolls if they all bust. Almost poetic..

[Zaydin]

Jesus, @Breccia what happened to the stocks? I know it wasn't looking great last night with the futures from what I recall, but it looks like all of yesterdays gains and then some have been wiped out so far.