Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[fluffhead]

Well it just claimed John Prine.

We will, all of us, eventually become so numb due to the sheer numbers being thrown at us that we're going to, from time to time, forget what we're losing. I hate that it takes the death of a genuine artist to stun me back to reality, but there you have it. There is so much talent and potential being taken away from us by this thing--both famous and unknown--from every facet of every industry that even when this thing is conquered it's going to be a long, long time before we are restored.

Just heard about this, RIP John.

[Masark]

Some people out of Los Alamos have come up with a new estimate of this virus' R0. They're figuring it is much higher than we currently think.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26...DC_333-DM25287

An R0 of 5.7 puts the herd immunity threshold at about 82%, with the confidence interval being 73.7-88.8.

[Easo]

So rememeber the US carrier captain who was fired over his letter?
Well, so now the person who fired him resigned himself:

Coronavirus warship row: Acting US Navy secretary resigns

Mr Modly apologised on Monday after it emerged he had called Captain Brett Crozier's actions "naive" and "stupid".

Capt Crozier was fired last week, and footage of his crew sending him off the warship with applause went viral.

Mr Modly flew 8,000 miles on Monday to the Pacific island of Guam, where the USS Theodore Roosevelt is docked, and berated the crew for having cheered the captain as he left the ship.

Mr Modly told the crew what their former captain did "was very, very wrong" and amounted to "a betrayal of trust with me, with his chain of command", according to recordings leaked to US media.

"If he didn't think that information was going to get out into the public... then he was a) too naive or too stupid to be the commanding officer of a ship like this," Mr Modly said. "The alternative is he did it on purpose."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52209105

I hope I don't have to explain to anyone what his little trip to Guam cost in terms of morale, not only on the USS Theodore Roosevelt, but most likely in the whole fleet?
Talking about chain of command is nice and all, but when chain of commands includes such individuals, well...
While the captain is unlikely to get reinstated, hopefully next one will have better brass with a bit more sense.

[Acidbaron]

So rememeber the US carrier captain who was fired over his letter?
Well, so now the person who fired him resigned himself:




https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52209105

I hope I don't have to explain to anyone what his little trip to Guam cost in terms of morale, not only on the USS Theodore Roosevelt, but most likely in the whole fleet?
Talking about chain of command is nice and all, but when chain of commands includes such individuals, well...
While the captain is unlikely to get reinstated, hopefully next one will have better brass with a bit more sense.

If the Chain of Command worked as it should, a Captain should not have been forced to plea for his men lives while they are stuck on a ship with infected.

- - - Updated - - -

Some people out of Los Alamos have come up with a new estimate of this virus' R0. They're figuring it is much higher than we currently think.



https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26...DC_333-DM25287

An R0 of 5.7 puts the herd immunity threshold at about 82%, with the confidence interval being 73.7-88.8.

What i am concerned about when speaking of immunity is that even if you had it once it is less likely you'll get it but not impossible and we are still speaking of the same variation what happens when a new mutated strain hits us a few months from now?

[hellhamster]

What i am concerned about when speaking of immunity is that even if you had it once it is less likely you'll get it but not impossible and we are still speaking of the same variation what happens when a new mutated strain hits us a few months from now?

So far there have been over 3,000 different sequenced strains of the virus. I suppose it's safe to say there are many new strains with different morphologies that pass under our RNA antibodies' radar. The real nutcracker is Antibody Dependant Enhancement that we need to pay real close attention in the coming months. It's a mutation that isn't potent enough to pass as a completely new threat for our antibodies, having close characteristics to the old threat, but it contains genetic knowledge on how to "fool" our white blood cells while using the same receptor and methodology as previous strains to enter healthy cells, or even a more evolved one.

This translates into something really scary, that not only can it invade healthy cells without triggering our antibodies, but it can also enter our white blood cells, ergo the blood stream, ergo every organ in the human body.

It's the equivalent of criminals corrupting the police force to do their bidding.

[telygroar]

lol, now the WHO who said warning early on is "china oriented" for Trump.
Well, like china, trump is trying to rewrite the story...

[AeneasBK]

Your post makes it sound like captain was in wrong, when it clearly is other way around. Even crew supported captain. Chain of command means shit if that chain is so bad that captain had to attract attention of media to get something done. This is not war times when chain has to be obeyed regardless of casualties.

Looks like coverups and corruption runs deep in US navy.

Might be idiomatic but "better brass" means "better superiors".

[tromage2]

lol, now the WHO who said warning early on

Was it early on...
Reports show that China known about the virus weeks before they made it world wide known.

[hellhamster]

lol, now the WHO who said warning early on is "china oriented" for Trump.
Well, like china, trump is trying to rewrite the story...

The WHO are the biggest bad guys in this entire clusterfuck. They didn't do their own reports, instead they copied China's reports. Essentially, they protected China and downplayed the virus. Most world leaders and their virologists went off WHO's "reports" in the beginning as the virus is "just a flu". Hence a lot of countries went with herd immunity policies from day 1 despite not knowing anything about the virus.

- - - Updated - - -

Your post makes it sound like captain was in wrong, when it clearly is other way around. Even crew supported captain. Chain of command means shit if that chain is so bad that captain had to attract attention of media to get something done. This is not war times when chain has to be obeyed regardless of casualties.

Looks like coverups and corruption runs deep in US navy.

It's a common problem in militaries everywhere, the chain of command being utter shitheads. Real leadership listens to subordinates, especially well-established ones. Incompetence is the real culprit here, not corruption. Which is why the one who issued the commander's dismissal was "resigned" himself. However, there is still no culpability in removing the commander, going against the chain of command, no matter how wrong they were proven in the end.

[Easo]

Your post makes it sound like captain was in wrong, when it clearly is other way around. Even crew supported captain. Chain of command means shit if that chain is so bad that captain had to attract attention of media to get something done. This is not war times when chain has to be obeyed regardless of casualties.

Looks like coverups and corruption runs deep in US navy.

My post does not - better brass means better command, as in, guys above the captain aka the people in charge. The next captain, hopefully, will have better superiors.

[telygroar]

Why, you think the WHO has access to other means to scans any country ?

In new-york, death at home from coronavirus are not tested at all or writed at another cause. Same in italy. In france, they're just starting to count elderly home death because people were angry.

THEY'RE ALL DOING THE SAME SHIT. So no, don't play the WHO as the bad guy when everyone is feeding him lies.

[hellhamster]

Why, you think the WHO has access to other means to scans any country ?

In new-york, death at home from coronavirus are not tested at all or writed at another cause. Same in italy. In france, they're just starting to count elderly home death because people were angry.

THEY'RE ALL DOING THE SAME SHIT. So no, don't play the WHO as the bad guy when everyone is feeding him lies.

The WHO is responsible for doing own reports.

[Egomaniac]

The WHO are the biggest bad guys in this entire clusterfuck. They didn't do their own reports, instead they copied China's reports. Essentially, they protected China and downplayed the virus. Most world leaders and their virologists went off WHO's "reports" in the beginning as the virus is "just a flu". Hence a lot of countries went with herd immunity policies from day 1 despite not knowing anything about the virus.

Never heard anything about WHO reports referring to coronavirus as "just a flu"

[Draco-Onis]

The WHO is responsible for doing own reports.

The WHO is not on the ground of every country they rely on government reports the same governments represented by them. If you are blaming the WHO you are blaming all its member countries as well, it's basically pointing the finger at your own government.

[Remilia]

Trump is mainly trying to deflect his poor performance and just general ineptitude but he's not wrong in that it was pretty china centric. Especially early on they praised china to high heaven. Time stamps are just the praising part, can scroll through it for whatever.
https://youtu.be/xakAMtwLxTc?t=394
https://youtu.be/BIgiLN43M_Q?t=752
This was pretty common throughout the early press conferences.
Both of those say not to limit travel/trade of course.
The 23rd one is where they finally acknowledged human to human transmission, but only in cases of family/health care (read close contact) and only in china cause no evidence of it outside of china, which doesn't make sense to be honest, it's a virus, viruses don't care where you live but sure. I get not knowing how contagious it is cause that does take time and study, but don't say that after you say only in close contact cases...

[Tuor]

For those that still think this shit is like the flu... I was one of those a few weeks ago.

[Remilia]

The WHO is not on the ground of every country they rely on government reports the same governments represented by them. If you are blaming the WHO you are blaming all its member countries as well, it's basically pointing the finger at your own government.

While generally true, for China they had foot on the ground, Tedros was there and said he talked to Xi jinping for example. A direct quote by Tedros, "I was in China just a few days ago where I met with president Xi jinping. I left in absolutely no doubt about China's commitment to transparency and protecting the world's people." Also that one Canadian dude said he'd rather get his treatment in China after his visit iirc.

[Tuor]

So far there have been over 3,000 different sequenced strains of the virus. I suppose it's safe to say there are many new strains with different morphologies that pass under our RNA antibodies' radar. The real nutcracker is Antibody Dependant Enhancement that we need to pay real close attention in the coming months. It's a mutation that isn't potent enough to pass as a completely new threat for our antibodies, having close characteristics to the old threat, but it contains genetic knowledge on how to "fool" our white blood cells while using the same receptor and methodology as previous strains to enter healthy cells, or even a more evolved one.

This translates into something really scary, that not only can it invade healthy cells without triggering our antibodies, but it can also enter our white blood cells, ergo the blood stream, ergo every organ in the human body.

It's the equivalent of criminals corrupting the police force to do their bidding.

I was watching the news yeasterday, and there was a news piece about the virus genome sequencing done here in Portugal, it seems that sars-cov2 only mutates at half speed of the flu, and those are actually good news. Here in Portugal there are only 2 dominant strains.

[cuafpr]

while i think Trump's response was weak at the start, and took to long. I also think the US is divided enough that had he suspended travel in late dec/jan people would have flipped their shit attacking him for over acting. It is what it is at this point, hopefully the US learns and places actually build enough hospitals to support the people ... but given how many hospitals are laying people off, i'm less than hopeful

[Tuor]

I have been updating my countries data in the past days, from today, i will only update the information that are accurate.

Current situation in Portugal:
1 211 cases at hospital
245 at ICU
380 deaths
35 deaths in the past 24h