Fate of Afghanistan, Taliban resurgence

[Cthulhu 2020]

We can and we will dump on him for the way withdrawal was done. Like leaving the main army base without telling anything to the Afghanistan? Or absolutely failing to calculate how fast Talibs would take over, then having to urgently get few thousand troops backs to secure the airport. Yeah, "totally" not a shitshow.

The US military and personnel probably know far more than we do about what's going on, and there were a lot of unforeseen elements. That said, he's not done the absolute best job, and yet he's committed to getting it done which is more than can be said for past presidents. And my main point of the whole post was that anyone who was on the Trump kool-aide has zero business shitting on Biden. I don't seem to remember you being on the Trump kool-aide but you can correct me if I'm wrong.

[Easo]

So, yeah, about the valley... @Corvus
https://twitter.com/miirwais/status/1434735886751633409

Pretty much game over, as far as my armchair general eyes can see. Now we just need see what happens with/where are Saleh and Massoud
Jr.

it was always going to be a shit show. stop fooling yourself and trying to convince others there is any situation where this would turn out differently. it's been clear to everyone in charge for the last 18 years that the Afghan army is extremely mismanaged and corrupt. same goes for literally everything else the US tried to do in that country, it got NOTHING done. the only one's who befitted from this are private contractors, Raytheon, Boeing, Haliburton and whatever child raping, opium growing warlord that took our money.

Wrong. Education levels, for one, especially for girls.

The US military and personnel probably know far more than we do about what's going on, and there were a lot of unforeseen elements. That said, he's not done the absolute best job, and yet he's committed to getting it done which is more than can be said for past presidents. And my main point of the whole post was that anyone who was on the Trump kool-aide has zero business shitting on Biden. I don't seem to remember you being on the Trump kool-aide but you can correct me if I'm wrong.

I am veeeeeeeery far away from being a Trump fanboy, but who the hell cares what does the military personnel think, if they could not do anything? Not to mention they are not in charge, Biden is. Withdrawal at any cost made an epic shitshow and that was his decision.
Unforeseen elements? Which ones? ANA folding in 10 days? Yeah, that better have led to a lot of demotions in the military intelligence... This goes back to that military personnel.

[Gaidax]

That the US military and/or Intelligence fucked it up is beyond doubt. I don't feel cold or hot about Biden personally, but I do think he was fed incorrect info.

Now either it was some overzealous yes-men rushing to please with rosy outlooks ignoring intelligence and reality or some administration bigwigs deciding to wing it.

In the end I think it absolutely should not have happened this way. If evacuation would have started even 3 weeks earlier, it would give more time to get much more of the support staff out. Especially as far as allies are concerned, who left plenty people there to get fucked.

I really think there need to be people in Pentagon and administration who need to put their keys on the table over this.

[Flarelaine]

Three states granted marriage licenses to 12 year olds... so 4 year old disparity would mean either a 16 year was marrying a 12 year old or the 12 year old married an 8 year old. All of these are problematic. I'm gonna guess Alabama?

Last I saw a statistic about it West Virginia was at the top, I believe... followed by the usual suspects all over Appalachia.

[Draco-Onis]

That the US military and/or Intelligence fucked it up is beyond doubt. I don't feel cold or hot about Biden personally, but I do think he was fed incorrect info.

Now either it was some overzealous yes-men rushing to please with rosy outlooks ignoring intelligence and reality or some administration bigwigs deciding to wing it.

In the end I think it absolutely should not have happened this way. If evacuation would have started even 3 weeks earlier, it would give more time to get much more of the support staff out. Especially as far as allies are concerned, who left plenty people there to get fucked.

I really think there need to be people in Pentagon and administration who need to put their keys on the table over this.

Our entire 20 years in Afghanistan can be summed up as an intelligence failure, the Afghan papers made it pretty clear we had no fucking clue. Also the transition from Trump to Biden was basically non existent since he insisted he won the election that slowed down a lot of things. It's the worse presidential transition in US history, Biden and his people didn't really get the ball rolling until they got in.

[Corvus]

So, yeah, about the valley... @Corvus
https://twitter.com/miirwais/status/1434735886751633409

Pretty much game over, as far as my armchair general eyes can see. Now we just need see what happens with/where are Saleh and Massoud
Jr.

Bit quicker than I was expecting. I had kind of hoped some of the Taliban's claims were their typical propaganda. The resistance are still denying the Taliban are in control of the valley but the evidence does seem to suggest they have lost the capital.

The leadership of the resistance got away but without a base of operations and no link to neighbouring countries they may not be able to do much, though the Taliban have said Saleh fled to Tajikistan. Not sure how he would have gotten there from Panjshir, but that is what they are saying. When the Taliban was in their situation, they had Pakistan to shelter and supply them. Massoud is somewhere and has released a audio recording calling for a national uprising. Not likely to happen, at least not yet until the Taliban's brutality starts to become more evident. Given they are already doing things like murdering a female police officer who was 8 months pregnant in front of her family and kids then they aren't doing themselves any favours in nit making more enemies for themselves.

[Breccia]

Last I saw a statistic about it West Virginia was at the top, I believe... followed by the usual suspects all over Appalachia.

As someone who lived through the 80's within brick's throwing range of West Virginia, I can confirm I grew up with jokes about this -- so the problem isn't exactly recent or obscure.

Great camping, though.

On topic: war is hell, pointless wars are hellier, and veterans deserve our support. PTSD is 100% going to be a factor with many of our troops coming home. I know there's going to be a spin on this by pearl-clutching Republicans, "was it worth it now that we're gone?" but dude, it wasn't worth it while we were there. There's a lot of bad optics to the exit, and a lot of that is deserved, but at least someone turning 18 tomorrow doesn't have to worry about being shipped out there just to pay their college tuition.

- - - Updated - - -

Obviously a US Representative has access to way more information than I do, and I'm torn on whether to believe him.

There is an update...kind of. The AP reports that, yes, some planes have been sitting at the airport unable to leave. The Taliban terrorists have said it's because some Afghanis on those planes didn't have the paperwork to leave, and also, they left the airplanes to stay at hotels while the situation was being looked at.

Color me skeptical.

But we still don't know if there are Americans on those planes or not. Again, even though the Taliban are terrorists who really don't like us, they're within a few feet of owning the country free and clear. The last thing they need is to provoke an armed response.

[Paranoid Android]

I'm currently watching TurningPoint,: 9/11 and the War on Terror, while not finished I can see the disaster in the near future leading up to Afghanistan.

Right bow they have Alberto Gonzalez,former White House counsel,which reminds me of all the scum of the Bush Administration.

[jonnysensible]

That the US military and/or Intelligence fucked it up is beyond doubt. I don't feel cold or hot about Biden personally, but I do think he was fed incorrect info.

Now either it was some overzealous yes-men rushing to please with rosy outlooks ignoring intelligence and reality or some administration bigwigs deciding to wing it.

In the end I think it absolutely should not have happened this way. If evacuation would have started even 3 weeks earlier, it would give more time to get much more of the support staff out. Especially as far as allies are concerned, who left plenty people there to get fucked.

I really think there need to be people in Pentagon and administration who need to put their keys on the table over this.

US intel seems to be fucked for quite a while now. Solar winds was the biggest example of how blind it has become.

So, yeah, about the valley...
https://twitter.com/miirwais/status/1434735886751633409

Pretty much game over, as far as my armchair general eyes can see. Now we just need see what happens with/where are Saleh and Massoud
Jr.

Didnt Massouds uncle (Ahmad Zia Massoud) turn up in Dubai with 52million in cash when he was VP. Hopefully no one puts their fate in the hands of the rats.

[Biglog]

As far as the Mazar-I-Sharif planes and passengers, some thoughts on that. Those flights are being chartered by Mercury One (Glenn Beck) mostly as a political stunt.

More importantly you can actually see the Taliban argument in this case. They all along said anyone can leave Afghanistan freely as long as they do it via proper legal channels, with passports, etc. Hundreds of the passengers attempting to leave Mazar-i-Sharif *do not* have passports and are trying to bypass the legal process. That's what the Taliban are complaining about and why aren't allowing them to leave, it's not exactly a hostage situation as many in the West jumped to the assumption of. You can't go to JFK airport and try to leave without a passport or paperwork either, that doesn't make you a hostage. And the Taliban are known to be strict on documentation for everything they do, they are trying to demonstrate the legitimacy of their new government and bypassing the legal process from their perspective contradicts that.

Additionally, if a person is American and still in Afghanistan in September 2021 I'd need some good convincing that's not by their their own poor decisions. Doha was signed over a year ago, they knew the US was leaving, that was the first notice to go. In August the State Dept contacted every American in Afghanistan multiple times a day begging them to leave, and the people remaining refused or flip-flopped on their decision repeatedly until it was too late.

So I'm not trying to be insensitive to their situation, but there is an important lesson learned for everyday people in all countries from this. When the primary support for a government is leaving, the government is potentially collapsing, there is a coup/revolution, or some sort of new government is going in that puts you and/or your family at high-risk of harm or persecution, it is to your benefit to leave sooner rather than later. It's like people in a hurricane that stay and try to ride it out, it often does not end well. In the West, if your country looks like it is trying to relive 1937 Germany with far-right fascism and brownshirt wanna-bes 'beating dissenters', that may also be a sign to not wait until they get around to reliving 1941 and rounding people up. Just about all of human history is full of examples where when the warning signs came, people that left early survived and people that stayed too long had a rough time. There were probably people in Vesuvius that said, 'I'm sure that volcano won't erupt for a long time yet...'

[Breccia]

So I'm not trying to be insensitive to their situation, but there is an important lesson learned for everyday people in all countries from this.

There is.

I know every situation is different and leaving Afghanistan in 2019/2020 wasn't exactly easy. But if you were an Afghani who feared the Taliban terrorists and you saw Trump picnic with the Taliban on the White House lawn, you should have said "oh shit, I need to get the fuck out of Dodge" right away. Now, for those that did drop everything and start making plans, and those plans still weren't enough, that sucks beyond the telling of it. If their paperwork was "lost" by Trump's State Dept, that's also not their fault [EDIT: not the Afghani's fault]. But if you knew what was going on and still waited till August...I mean, I hate to victim-blame, but at some point you have to acknowledge you're playing on Mythic +10 when you only geared up in Heroics.

[uuuhname]

Wrong. Education levels, for one, especially for girls.

whoopdee-fucking-do!

that sure kept the Taliban from taking over, didn't it?

[Endus]

There is.

I know every situation is different and leaving Afghanistan in 2019/2020 wasn't exactly easy. But if you were an Afghani who feared the Taliban terrorists and you saw Trump picnic with the Taliban on the White House lawn, you should have said "oh shit, I need to get the fuck out of Dodge" right away. Now, for those that did drop everything and start making plans, and those plans still weren't enough, that sucks beyond the telling of it. If their paperwork was "lost" by Trump's State Dept, that's also not their fault [EDIT: not the Afghani's fault]. But if you knew what was going on and still waited till August...I mean, I hate to victim-blame, but at some point you have to acknowledge you're playing on Mythic +10 when you only geared up in Heroics.

I mean, the line is here;

If they've been attacked or harmed by the Taliban, that's bad.
If the US promised to get them out and hosed them at the last minute, that's bad.
If you chose to remain in Afghanistan knowing the US was leaving the region and with the legal capacity (visas, citizenship, whatever) to do so, you accepted the risks. That doesn't make it okay if the Taliban harmed you, but it does mean it's not the USA's fault that you got harmed; you did not get "abandoned".

It's like if you're out drinking with friends, and they get tired/bored and want to head out, and you insist "nah, I'm fine, you go home, I'm gonna stay", and then something terrible happens to you, it isn't your friends' fault for leaving you there. Blame the person who actually hurt you.

That's not "victim-blaming", that's "blaming the actual villain". Still not the victim's fault.

Edit: And, like you said, this is for American citizens who chose to stay, I'm not talking about Afghanis who were promised a visa and got fucked over. That's absolutely the USA's shame and blame.

[Easo]

Yeah, honestly speaking, at some point there were enough signs for locals and foreigners that it is time to get out of Afghanistan. Sure, I can understand not wanting to leave everything you have behind, but we are talking about staying meaning getting fucking executed in the streets like dogs. Literally.
There were lot of other factors as well. USA especially could have prepared evacuation lists years in advance (plus other countries), I also suspect locals themselves could not imagine ANA just folding like wet paper in record time.

Bit quicker than I was expecting. I had kind of hoped some of the Taliban's claims were their typical propaganda. The resistance are still denying the Taliban are in control of the valley but the evidence does seem to suggest they have lost the capital.

The leadership of the resistance got away but without a base of operations and no link to neighbouring countries they may not be able to do much, though the Taliban have said Saleh fled to Tajikistan. Not sure how he would have gotten there from Panjshir, but that is what they are saying. When the Taliban was in their situation, they had Pakistan to shelter and supply them. Massoud is somewhere and has released a audio recording calling for a national uprising. Not likely to happen, at least not yet until the Taliban's brutality starts to become more evident. Given they are already doing things like murdering a female police officer who was 8 months pregnant in front of her family and kids then they aren't doing themselves any favours in nit making more enemies for themselves.

As funny as it sounds during Taliban takeover their reports of captured cities were pretty close to reality. Though they did bullshit about Panjshir couple of times in general they did not lie much. No need to when you are winning, I guess.

Yep, as I said, valley was completely surrounded, no external help, they were doomed. Leftovers of "resistance" have retreated to mountains and are complaining about Pakistani special forces and drone strikes (classic). What now? Limited supplies will make sure Talibs won't even have to ascend into mountains much, fighting force pretty much is gone. Expect partisan activity and that's it - something Talibs know very well themselves and can prepare for.

whoopdee-fucking-do!

that sure kept the Taliban from taking over, didn't it?

You said nothing was achieved (thus implying that education counts too) - which was wrong. Also, infant mortality rates and healthcare in general. Improved infrastructure, etc. Contrary to Biden's bullshit about "not being there to do nationbuilding" USA was clearly doing nationbuilding.
So at least try to be objective.

US intel seems to be fucked for quite a while now. Solar winds was the biggest example of how blind it has become.



Didnt Massouds uncle (Ahmad Zia Massoud) turn up in Dubai with 52million in cash when he was VP. Hopefully no one puts their fate in the hands of the rats.

Ehh, Solar Winds is debatable. Sure, you could write everything in house... who is gonna pay for that? And same issues still can apply. Russian side is full of holes as well

Sorry, do not know about his uncle, but I have heard some similar stuff. Most recent one was Ghani himself xD No idea if that is actually confirmed, though.

[Corvus]

I can see this get out of hand in a hurry - protests in Kabul, mostly lead by women demanding equality, as well as denouncing Pakistan and praising the resistance, has been going on for a week. The Taliban have responded by beating the women with sticks and firing into the air to try and disperse the crowds.

[Breccia]

To continue on the airport thing: Biden's SecState says he knows of no hostage situation in this context.

[jonnysensible]

the haqqani power move.

[TexasRules]

the haqqani power move.

for those not watching international news:

https://twitter.com/AdityaRajKaul/st...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

Globally designated terrorist of Haqqani Network Sirajuddin Haqqani is the new Interior Minister of Afghanistan. Let that sink in.

The FBI has a $5 million bounty on this terrorist

[Edge-]

for those not watching international news:

https://twitter.com/AdityaRajKaul/st...rc=twsrc%5Etfw


The FBI has a $5 million bounty on this terrorist

Yo, why'd the US sign a deal with these guys if they work with terrorists? I thought we didn't make deals with terrorists?

[TexasRules]

Yo, why'd the US sign a deal with these guys if they work with terrorists? I thought we didn't make deals with terrorists?

A question Biden has been dodging for almost a month now.