Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Zantos]

Asymptomatic, vaxxed, yet positive are in much less danger to spread it. Look it up. This data is literally being used by the NFL to allow certain players back on the field quicker if they meet specific requirements.

The NFL isn't really a medical source for where you should be getting information. They have a vested interested, one that's several million per player, to get them back on the field quicker. Also, US. Most people here don't care anyway at this point. Now, to what you said.

First, back in may, this was published. Asymptomatic cases account for 50%, at least. On that front, its not seeming any less infections. Just harder to track and trace.

Second was this posted on the 5th of December of this year. Now, that study isn't for sure on it at all. Its a working theory. The theory being that they are sick for less time, and thus, That is what would lead to them being "less likely to transmit it". The pure fact that they may not shed the virus for as long. So, to that point. Its not that they are less likely to actually spread it. Its that they Might be able to spread it for less time then if they were not infected.

That's the only information I can find. Yes, they spread it. At least half the cases were from asymptomatic. The only thing is that if they are fully vaxxed, they end up shedding the virus for a lesser period of time, but can still spread it just as easily while its shedding.

This is the kind of misinformation that is helping the pandemic stay active. People need to research into things they hear and be informed. Too many are thinking the vaccine is a cure all. Its not. It was never planned to be the Only thing we do until covid had been wiped out fully. They always intended for us to still social distance and mask up. Now though, the vaccine is providing less protections. All thanks to the idiots who let it mutate by not getting vaccinated when they were able to stop it.

[Forogil]

The NFL isn't really a medical source for where you should be getting information. They have a vested interested, one that's several million per player, to get them back on the field quicker. Also, US. Most people here don't care anyway at this point. Now, to what you said.

First, back in may, this was published. Asymptomatic cases account for 50%, at least. On that front, its not seeming any less infections. Just harder to track and trace.

That's not entirely true, that headline is contradicted by the actual text and the underlying study.

Other results of that study are also inconsistent with what we know (only 18% symptomatic cases is way too low; the simplest explanation is that they exclude the many who were mildly symptomatic and didn't bother get tested, or who just thought it was a cold).

The actual result says that the 50% is for "presymptomatic and asymptomatic cases". The difference is that the presymptomatic cases haven't shown symptoms yet, but will show it later (often the same day or the next day). These are less problematic than the asymptomatic cases if you quickly test and then contact trace their contacts and tell those contacts to quarantine. They are also more problematic from a medical point of view, since a presymptomatic case can become a severe case.

A newer study separated the two and in that study they found no asymptomatic spread at all, but ≥75% of the spread was presymptomatic:
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/4/20-4576_article
And in that study 87% were symptomatic; note that it was a small study so all numbers have large uncertainty - but the general message is clear.

[Armael]

There we go, he found it.

[Forogil]

We still want to wait 2-3 weeks to see what the resultant deaths data will show. If there's less deaths than Alpha and Delta, then ultimately all we've had is a way more contagious virus that is far less deadly.

More cases doesn't ultimately mean much if a big chunk of the positives are asymptomatic (therefore less likely to spread if that same person is vaxxed) and less people will die from it.

Most of the cases for Omicron are mild and quick - but it doesn't seem they are asymptomatic.

The problem with a large number of mild cases is that they are all happening at the same time, and that the people infected will have to stay home, and to be safe their contacts quarantine. That's part of what caused thousands of flights to be cancelled over x-mas, and it is causing a problem for the health-care sector (you don't want a sick nurse, right?)

That's a temporary issue, but still an issue and one way of reducing its impact is to update the guidelines as CDC have done: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...you/ar-AASbGLZ
Obviously it's a trade-off, there might be a few more infections with the new guidelines, but the old guidelines would have caused greater problems (assuming they were followed - guidelines that feel too strict may also be ignored).

[Armael]

I don't disagree with anything there. My sole point was if you're asymptomatic you're gonna be less likely to spread it, actually at 0% based on the linked study.

[PACOX]

Why do I see people demonstrating at frigging Applebee's and Burger King because they need to show a vaccination card. Those places aren't even the top tier of their respective categories. Humans became the dominant species because we are collectively psychotic chaos, that's the only plausible explanation.

If you want your whopper that bad just get a shot. I bet the cashier isn't checking for fake cards either, just pointing out how much crybabies think these stunts through.

You have to pull teeth to get people to vote but tell them they have to show a free card to get a $5 low tier burger and they organize in force.

- - - Updated - - -

96 players tested positive on Monday. The NFL is circling the drain and pretending everything is OK. Its obvious bullshit.

A good number of them are vaccinated though. Right? It's always stupid to see a virus run through a group and patient zero(s) are likely the people lyinh/cheating protocol but im actually amazed at how well the NFL has done.

[Tuor]

New record of cases here in Portugal, 17K. Number of cases might reach 37k in the first week of january. Omicron is now dominant.

[PhaelixWW]

Omicron is now dominant.

Speaking of...

As I suspected, the CDC estimate was a bit of an overestimate. Last week, many outlets were reporting that 73% of the cases in the US were omicron, while ignoring that this was not only just an estimate, but an estimate based entirely on incomplete data for the entirety of the "trend", since the trend was only two weeks long.

Current CDC estimates for the week ending 12/18 have backed down from 73% to only 23%. The week ending 12/25 has been added with an estimate of 59%. That seems much more reasonable.


Here's last week's estimate:




And here's the new estimate:

[Rasulis]

SFGate has some nice graphs showing the relationships between case and hospitalization for Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants. It appears that San Francisco high vaccination rate has caused Omicron case and hospitalization to be decoupled.




Miami-Dade and San Francisco have relatively similar vaccination rates. Yet completely different Omicron numbers.

Population: 2,716,940 vs. 881,549
Population Density: 1,430 vs. 18,795
% Population 65 & Older: 16.66% vs. 16.08%
% Vaccinated (one dose): 95% vs. 91.5%
% Vaccinated (2 doses): 85% vs. 79% (The numbers are based on CDC data. SFDPH shows 80% fully vaccinated and 87% with one dose for San Francisco.)
% Fully Vaccinated Boosted: 23.2% vs. 48.4%

This is where the numbers for the two counties diverged.

Total Cases (last 7 days): 52,435 vs. 1,912
New Hospital Admission (last 7 days): 696 vs. 20
Total Death (last 7 days): 26 vs. 1

How can two regions with similar vaccination rates have such completely different case, hospitalization and mortality numbers? Maybe Miami-Dade vaccination numbers are inflated?

[Forogil]

Why do I see people demonstrating at frigging Applebee's and Burger King because they need to show a vaccination card. Those places aren't even the top tier of their respective categories. Humans became the dominant species because we are collectively psychotic chaos, that's the only plausible explanation.

If you want your whopper that bad just get a shot. I bet the cashier isn't checking for fake cards either, just pointing out how much crybabies think these stunts through.

Seems like a bad system if you cannot easily check for fake cards.

For the EU vaccine cards the cashier would just start an app and point it at the the QR-code (and then you check the id-card so that it is non-fake and matching).

- - - Updated - - -

This is where the numbers for the two counties diverged.

Total Cases (last 7 days): 52,435 vs. 1,912
New Hospital Admission (last 7 days): 696 vs. 20
Total Death (last 7 days): 26 vs. 1

How can two regions with similar vaccination rates have such completely different case, hospitalization and mortality numbers? Maybe Miami-Dade vaccination numbers are inflated?

It's possible, but there are a number of alternatives: some might be luck (in terms of number of initial cases after the summer), some might be how well people follow all the other precautions, some might be the lack of boosters in Miami-Dade (that was a stark difference), or something else.

[Poopymonster]

Seems like a bad system if you cannot easily check for fake cards.

For the EU vaccine cards the cashier would just start an app and point it at the the QR-code (and then you check the id-card so that it is non-fake and matching).

- - - Updated - - -


It's possible, but there are a number of alternatives: some might be luck (in terms of number of initial cases after the summer), some might be how well people follow all the other precautions, some might be the lack of boosters in Miami-Dade (that was a stark difference), or something else.

That would lead to someone falling to the ground, foaming at the mouth, twitching in a puddle of their own urine, tearing their clothes and gnashing their teeth, wailing about "LIBURTEES and FREEDUMBS."

Don't you know, Government cards lead to lists. Lists lead to rosters. Rosters lead to databases. Databases lead to FEMA death camps where your patriots are force fed vegan foods and have an IV tube of Soylent drink. Before you're put into a solar powered, organic, clean burning ovens. You goddamn Nazi.
/s

[Poopymonster]

It's not coming in the US. They just lowered quarantine to 5 days.

Think about the poor economy. What'll happen to it if we actually give a shit about our citizens? How will you hide the piles of bodies? Sink em off the coast of Florida? Nah, they'll bury the body under a larger pile of money, making it look ever yuger.

[Rasulis]

Think about the poor economy. What'll happen to it if we actually give a shit about our citizens? How will you hide the piles of bodies? Sink em off the coast of Florida? Nah, they'll bury the body under a larger pile of money, making it look ever yuger.

The 5 days quarantine only applies to asymptomatic cases. Which is consistent with the data from UCSF which show negative test results within 5 days of exposure for fully vaccinated and boosted individuals. Including the ones with mild symptoms.

The economy is a consideration. However, the major consideration is the supply pool of health care workers. The health care systems are overloaded already. If everybody that that get infected by Omicron, which they likely will considering how infectious it is, have to quarantine for 10 days, the systems will collapse.

- - - Updated - - -

It's possible, but there are a number of alternatives: some might be luck (in terms of number of initial cases after the summer), some might be how well people follow all the other precautions, some might be the lack of boosters in Miami-Dade (that was a stark difference), or something else.

I am not sure myself. Either San Francisco fudged their numbers or Miami-Dade numbers are garbage. Maybe the water from Hetch Hetchy reservoir, which used to be tribal sacred land, has some magical properties.

[unfilteredJW]

I am not sure myself. Either San Francisco fudged their numbers or Miami-Dade numbers are garbage.

You can place money on the latter.

[Edge-]

That would lead to someone falling to the ground, foaming at the mouth, twitching in a puddle of their own urine, tearing their clothes and gnashing their teeth, wailing about "LIBURTEES and FREEDUMBS."

We have this in CA. Nabbed my QR code and now I never have to worry about forgetting/losing my vaccine card. Just my phone.

It's kinda freakin great, even if I don't really go anywhere that I'd even need it (my county is still doing fairly well).

[Zantos]

I don't disagree with anything there. My sole point was if you're asymptomatic you're gonna be less likely to spread it, actually at 0% based on the linked study.

That point is factually wrong. I pointed to a study that proved you can still spread it, and the current numbers indicate its at least 50% of the cases. That study is More recent then the CDC one that guy linked. That one being in April, with only 53 patients that they did a phone interview with. Hardly a study and no conclusions can be drawn from it with 100% certainty.

This study shows that its possibly even more easily transmitted before the symptoms show.

The issues with the cdc study are clear: Nothing can be drawn from a pool of 53 people that they only did a phone interview with. They had nothing to go by in that study other then what they said. The asked the patients whom they may have had contact with and if they had gotten sick.

- - - Updated - - -

but the general message is clear.

No, its not. There is no clear conclusion or message from that study. Reading over it, they only did a phone interview. With 53 people. And asked them who they could think of that may have gotten sick as a result of interacting with them. With the study only having 7 patients who may have been asymptomatic, there is nothing that can be made clear or thought of as a result of that. To further that point, they didn't even contact or talk to Anyone that any of the original patients said they might have gotten sick. So they don't even appear to have done anything to confirm any cases beyond the ones they spoke to.

[Forogil]

That point is factually wrong. I pointed to a study that proved you can still spread it, and the current numbers indicate its at least 50% of the cases. That study is More recent then the CDC one that guy linked. That one being in April, with only 53 patients that they did a phone interview with. Hardly a study and no conclusions can be drawn from it with 100% certainty.

Here are the errors in that paragraph:

• The study you linked says at least 50% for presymptomatic and asymptomatic, not for asymptomatic alone.
• The study you claim is more recent was published March 2021 (approved in January), and the other study was published in April 2021 (likely approved in February). Both used data from early 2020, but analyzing specific cases likely takes more time.
• It wasn't just "phone interviews" but traditional epidemiological work in testing and contact tracing, including testing of contacts which clearly wasn't done by phone. The other study just looked at aggregate data - and incorrectly assumes that if there is sufficient testing capacity (in some sense) then all symptomatic cases will get tested, which ignores human nature and that many cases are mild and that the symptoms overlap with many other diseases.

Doing contact tracing by phone is a good idea, since you want to do it early and not needlessly be in physical contact with infected individuals and it may take time, since people have to remember all contacts.

This study shows that its possibly even more easily transmitted before the symptoms show.

Before symptoms appear is called presymptomatic, not asymptomatic; confirming my point.
Asymptomatic means cases without symptoms.

- - - Updated - - -

The 5 days quarantine only applies to asymptomatic cases. Which is consistent with the data from UCSF which show negative test results within 5 days of exposure for fully vaccinated and boosted individuals. Including the ones with mild symptoms.

CDC should be better organized, they put that new guideline at https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2...-guidance.html as sort of indicating that they were going to change the guidelines.

But it seems they haven't yet updated https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...isolation.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...-Isolation.pdf

- - - Updated - - -

The 5 days quarantine only applies to asymptomatic cases.

But it was also an update for people who are symptomatic, since they should now isolate for 5 days (more if they continue to have symptoms); not 10 days (from symptom onset).

It's just that the language differs (CDC and WHO seem to find this important, I don't care): you quarantine the exposed and possibly infected, but isolate the actual cases.

What I find odd is that after day 5 you can leave as soon as you don't have symptoms, without any extra day of precaution. WHO recommends until 10 days after symptom onset, and 3 days after symptoms disappearing (which seems a bit excessive). Other countries have other rules.

- - - Updated - - -

Looking at global numbers Americas, Europe and Africa now have increasing cases.
In Africa it's not only southern Africa but also west-Africa so that Nigeria (and similarly nearby countries) are now seeing a surge of cases; with the positivity rate going up to 20% (from 0.6% at the beginning of the month). It's unclear if this is Delta or Omicron.

I noticed that CDC seems to be moving slowly for this, and still has west-Africa including Nigeria at 'level 1', since the levels are based on averages for 4-week periods. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...l-notices.html

- - - Updated - - -

Continuing the trend with hockey as a reflection of other events:
United States (defending gold champion) forfeits world junior hockey championship preliminary game (to Switzerland) due to quarantine
https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/...due-quarantine

[YUPPIE]

RIP Robin Fransman

[Tuor]

New record of cases here in Portugal, 17K. Number of cases might reach 37k in the first week of january. Omicron is now dominant.

Shit... 27k .

[MCMLXXXII]

RIP Robin Fransman

Stupid is, stupid does. Feel sorry for his family but not for this idiot.