We finally know WoW's sub count post-Legion! (kinda)

[Dracullus]

the graph is partially backed up by certain statements from some quarterly reports like og classic release doubling the sub numbers or wow having more players now than at the start of dragonflight

What is source of numbers?

During SL release they said: "In the months leading up to the expansion’s release and the time since launch, the game reached and has sustained its highest number of players on monthly or longer-term subscriptions compared to the same period ahead of and following any WoW expansion in the past decade, in both the West and the East."

I remind you Cata (2010) release was 12M subs. MoP (2012) 10M. WoD (2014) 10M.

Also during Legion launch Tom Chilton said in interview subs are at 10.1M. Blizzard later put statement :"This was a misquote, or some kind of misunderstanding on the part of the journalist," a rep said. "Our policy for almost a year now is that we do not talk about subscriber numbers, and Tom did not do that with this publication." Think of this what you want, personally I think Chilton slipped true info while Blizzard forbid talking about numbers.

Yet here we have 8M for Classic/SL spikes and 7.5M for Legion. Doesn't make sense, even difference between them feels to small.

[justwatching]

imo it's 60/40 in favor of sod. it doesn't matter tbh. it's clear that the largest chunk players plays retail

There is absolutely no way of knowing that from this data. It's easily possible Classic contributes 50% at this point.

[Randris]

I thought for sure the subs would be higher when Classic Wrath came out. I guess that was the impact of the lawsuit. I'd be interested to see someone expand the WoW subs graph with these numbers to get a better look at the lifetime of the game.

[Aeula]

Throwing random numbers around on a shiny graph won't make it accurate.

Also, why do we care about sub numbers?

It's not gonna be 100% accurate but this is as close as we've seen in a while. We have more info now than we've had since they stopped reporting thanks to that GDC conference. (Yes, these graphs can be fact checked once GCD releases the talk on youtube).

And we care because it shows the health of the game.

[Big Thanks]

What is source of numbers?

The source of numbers is:

I guess we have to trust Bellular's and his team's Math
I showed the official image we actually have on previous page.

[Mendzia]

Classic is dead on arrival guys, LOL.

[Eapoe]

Buckle up, boys. A new sub graph just dropped:



source

I don't particularly care for Baldular's content but credit where credit's due, the math checks out here. WoW's doing pretty well, all things considered.

Sorry, but this just can’t be correct. I’ve been getting told by people for years that WoW is down to only around 1 million subs.
That graph is just false. I’ve been told so by mmo-c posters for too long to believe it when someone actually puts in work and math for the solution vs just giving their feels about it.

[Reive]

What is source of numbers?

During SL release they said: "In the months leading up to the expansion’s release and the time since launch, the game reached and has sustained its highest number of players on monthly or longer-term subscriptions compared to the same period ahead of and following any WoW expansion in the past decade, in both the West and the East."

I remind you Cata (2010) release was 12M subs. MoP (2012) 10M. WoD (2014) 10M.

Also during Legion launch Tom Chilton said in interview subs are at 10.1M. Blizzard later put statement :"This was a misquote, or some kind of misunderstanding on the part of the journalist," a rep said. "Our policy for almost a year now is that we do not talk about subscriber numbers, and Tom did not do that with this publication." Think of this what you want, personally I think Chilton slipped true info while Blizzard forbid talking about numbers.

Yet here we have 8M for Classic/SL spikes and 7.5M for Legion. Doesn't make sense, even difference between them feels to small.

i didn't talk about numbers. with my comment i meant that the way the graph moves in certain points is backed up by some official statements

There is absolutely no way of knowing that from this data. It's easily possible Classic contributes 50% at this point.

now way lol. sod only has 15ish servers

[DarkAmbient]

I'm surprised the numbers are that high tbh. When I was still subbed it didn't feel as busy as Legion. I suppose that's due to the fracturing of the playerbase between all the different versions of the game that exist now. It would be interesting to know what the distribution is between them.

[Lolites]

I thought for sure the subs would be higher when Classic Wrath came out. I guess that was the impact of the lawsuit.

its more likely market "saturation" - people interested in classic wow were already in when bc and wrath were released so there wasnt visible peak

[micwini]

Classic actually had a massive impact, way more than I ever would have expected. Even SoD bumped subs by quite a lot.
Actually insane that late BFA is lower than SL. Possibly has to do with covid and the fact that BFA lasted far longer.

Nvm: Im stupid. SL did far worse than BFA, because after SL it also has the classic subs included and BFA didnt

[Sicknex]

i didn't talk about numbers. with my comment i meant that the way the graph moves in certain points is backed up by some official statements



now way lol. sod only has 15ish servers

I mean, 1 SoD server like Living flame has like 10+ layers, basically 10 servers in one lol.

[Reive]

retail also has layers and hundred of servers.

i'm not saying that classic has no players, but i'm pretty sure retail still holds most of the playerbase.

[Relapses]

Yet here we have 8M for Classic/SL spikes and 7.5M for Legion. Doesn't make sense, even difference between them feels to small.

FWIW, the 5.8m in the graph is doing some pretty heavy lifting and your skepticism isn't fully unwarranted. That said, this is the closest to an official snapshot of what sub numbers look like we've had in almost a decade so it's fun to talk about.

[FelPlague]

I'm surprised the numbers are that high tbh. When I was still subbed it didn't feel as busy as Legion. I suppose that's due to the fracturing of the playerbase between all the different versions of the game that exist now. It would be interesting to know what the distribution is between them.

yeah, Retail is def not as big as it was in legion, but classic, hardcore, sod, wrath of the lich king, they all spread the playerbase so far, something that is actually a negative of having so many versions, your player base feels smaller then it actually is, cause its so spread out.

[Randris]

its more likely market "saturation" - people interested in classic wow were already in when bc and wrath were released so there wasnt visible peak

That could be. Classic could have had similar numbers from TBC into Wrath and retail may have suffered a much larger drop at that time. The population graph at ironforge.pro shows a larger raiding population in early Wrath so I figured we'd see a noticeable increase, but that could just be due to how accessible Naxx was.

[justwatching]

i didn't talk about numbers. with my comment i meant that the way the graph moves in certain point is backed up by some official statements



now way lol. sod only has 15ish servers

And 80% of Retail servers are completely dead? Whats the point of that argument when we dont even know Server capacities. All versions of Classic combined had over 500k Characters raiding last week during what could be described as content drought and sure adjust for cross-over and alts but thats massive considering raiding is only a part of the game. Also consider the boost just SoD provided at the end of last year.

[McNeil]

I just want to say that if this graph is correct, its yet another punch in the face to all the people who have been against Classic and that it would be a total flop. I would guess that Classic is holding at least 50% of the subs, though there's no way to truely know. I remember the days of the ''Wall of No'' and ''You think you do, but you don't'' all to well, and they have been proven wrong again and again.

But lets not derail this further into a classic vs retail thread. Considering this game is about the game's health its probably already on thin ice to be closed while there are some good discussions to be found with these numbers.

[FelPlague]

Yet here we have 8M for Classic/SL spikes and 7.5M for Legion. Doesn't make sense, even difference between them feels to small.

Couple things to remind you.
Classic was FUCKING HUGE
and wanna know what came out the same time as shadowlands?
Naxxramas. A raid famously uncompleted by A MASSIVE majority of the playerbase, and the final raid of vanilla? Yeah that brought tons of people back.
So yeah makes sense classic would bring in such a HUGE spike in players, and then the launch of the legendary naxxramas, alongside an expansion that at launch seemed to only have "Short term issues that could" (and to be fair, would, although not as quick as we would like) be fixed.

[doledippers]

based on this graph coupled with the known endgame statistics id wager that its probably like a 65/35 split for retail/classic. We know that when classic initially launched it effectively doubled wow's total subs, but from this graph it's clear that its been trending downward ever since with a good bump from SoD. I think it's good that both versions of the game seem to be thriving

- - - Updated - - -

Couple things to remind you.
Classic was FUCKING HUGE
and wanna know what came out the same time as shadowlands?
Naxxramas. A raid famously uncompleted by A MASSIVE majority of the playerbase, and the final raid of vanilla? Yeah that brought tons of people back.

we also know that shadowlands had an exceptional launch itself, but immediately followed by a sharp decline