Disclaimer: I don't have any more access to a combat log than anyone else does, so all of the numbers in these calculation are purely speculative, and based 100% on tooltip reports. I'm also going to ignore talents that aren't going to be changed this patch, as they aren't going to be of concern to most people.
Disclaimer 2: This is purely a numbers post and assumes an ideal situation with no CC break or support from allies. Since the damage from our ideal, un-countered opening burst with no outside interference prompted the nerf, I believe this is appropriate.
I've already posted the simplified version in the long thread regarding the subject, so Bioware will no doubt see it at some point and in some scope. Beyond that, I'm quite sure a lot of operatives already have realized what I'm about to write. This is for the rest of the community.
The damage numbers used in all equations were pulled from tool tips in-game on my operative (which is NOT in full PvP gear):
HS: 2385-2482 2434 avg
BS: 1609-1625 1617 avg
Shiv: 1497-1570 1534 avg
LC: 1513-1577 1545 avg
AB: 1576 1576 avg
Debilitate(DB): 456-488 472 avg
Explosive Probe(EP) 1905-1938 1922 avg
Flash Bang(FB): 0 0 avg
Our current opener is as follows.
Hidden Strike (HS) with Jarring Strike(JS) and Acid Blade(AB) -> Shiv -> Backstab(BS) -> (Target has escaped CC, and is immune to further CC at this point) -> Lacerate(LC)
That means on average, ignoring armor and the possibility of crits, we currently do:
2434 + 1576 + 1534 + 1617 + 1576 + 1545 = 8,646 damage
Again, before armor, and NOT including crits, buffs, debuffs or talents.
Moving on, that's our current Ideal opener. Again to clarify, this means if you don't break our CC or defend yourself/receive support from allies in any way. In other words, an ideal case for us.
As of patch 1.1.1, whether or not JS gives a full resolve bar, I will not be speccing into it. The reason why is pretty clear in the new opener we'll have access to. Not to mention the two extra talent points (minor buff to have them free).
The opening becomes:
(Opponent starts free to move) HS without JS -> DB -> (opponent is no longer free to move) -> BS -> Shiv -> LC / (Opponent is now free to move for part of a GCD) -> FB -> free action.
If I chose to use the free action to go into 'cover in place', plant an explosive probe on you, and then follow up with a backstab, I will add significant damage to my opener. Note: These are options I did NOT have before, because JS filled the resolve bar.
The numbers for the ideal(uninterrupted, no interference) case:
(.8)2434 + 1576 + 472 + 1534 + 1617 + 1576 + 1545 + 1922 + 1617 = 13,806 damage.
Yeah, that's right. More damage than before.
So by 'nerfing' the Operative, we have been given MORE freedom (JS was too useful to pass up previously. Now we have a choice) MORE control (access to 2 CCs (DB and FB) during a fight instead of one), and MORE damage during our ideal opening sequence (on the order of 40% more). Our only shortcoming will be the increased dependence on mid-length cooldowns (DB and FB), which will likely be mitigated by the time it takes to get back into stealth and find a new target in a typical warzone.
The only remaining concern is the armor pen component, and that won't make a large scale difference against our primary targets anyway. (That means you, all you sorcs out there). We still suck in group v group battles, and we still get kited, and mauled, and etc... but we're actually going to become stronger and more flexible in the 1v1s people are so enraged over.
Additional contributions, especially mathematical corrections or expansions on my lack of formulas, would be most appreciated, and I will add them here if offered.