Q1-2012 Quarterly report tomorrow! (9th) at 1:30pm PST... predict now!

[mvaliz]

So, the next quarterly report is happening tomorrow at 1:30pm PST (3:30pm EST)
Here's the link that leads to the call.
http://investor.activision.com/events.cfm

Here's the thread - get your votes in now while you still can! :P

((and before anybody says "There's a thread on this"... no, that longer thread was just the OP asking when it's going to happen, and people arguing why numbers are important. This is the "day before, lay your predictions out" thread.))

Poll ends tomorrow before the conference call. And by all means place your actual number predictions via a post below! ^_^

[Thulvaso]

Forget what I said the news is out !

Blizzard Entertainment's World of Warcraft® Remains #1 Subscription-Based MMORPG with Approximately 10.2 Million Subscribers as of 3/31/12

[Woa]

I suspect gains. A lot of people left months ago and with the new scroll people are coming back. I came back. I know at least 5 friends who came back because of this. There must be others. Nothing big, but gains.

[mvaliz]

My theory is 100k lost. While tera did launch and SWTOR did update, I think those are minor. DS has been met with mixed reactions - especially after 4+ months of it and that is probably the stronger cause for sub losses. Likewise D3 got a release date - so now people could start planing ahead if they wanted to stop playing WoW for a while and concentrate on D3 soon.

What counters that though is the VERY sneaky and clever move by Blizz they did a month ago (Juuuust long enough for it to count on a Q1 report. :P) - the Scroll of Resurrection. That will most certainly have significantly boosted the numbers, at least temporarily, for Q1.

[Madruga]

I am beting on somewhere around 200k-300k losses, since this is the beggining of the expansion hiatus. And the fact that Dragon Soul got old fast adds to it.

That said, there are 2 things that may slow the subs loss and maybe put the losses numbers under 200k... One of them has been reminded by mvallas above me, and that was the Scroll of Ressurrection! The other, of course, is the Annual Pass, that along the imminent Diablo 3 launch, might have attracted a few more players over the 1 million already signed in it.

I´m in the Annual Pass, by the way, uuuhhhh!

[Hulari]

I'm not sure which to be honest. There's been some very clever deployment of special things from blizzard to try and boost their numbers during this stale period before the expansion. Scroll / Annual pass will help soften the blow if there is one.

[Daetur]

I suspect a small net gain, with a larger number of people returning with the Scroll of Resurrection and signing up for the Annual Pass last minute than cancelling their subs due to the lack of content during the end-of-expansion lull. There are also people coming back from SW:ToR, I know several people who have quit it as it didn't live up to expectations and hold their interest. I'd imagine a number of people feel the same way.
I don't say this with a massive amount of confidence, but this would be what I think is most likely out of the likely scenarios.

[Deleted]

I wouldn't be surprised if there's actually an increase, the beta and imminent d3 release sparked people to invest in the annual pass, the people that expected swtor to be a perfect game have come back and i've seen so many people return using the scroll of resurrection it's crazy.

I'm interested in seeing what they've got up there sleeve to boost subs for next quarter now

[Thulvaso]

Maybe the release of Mists ?

One can only hope.

[Oevaag]

I'm gonna predict that the numbers are gonna be down by a lot more than 200k. Anywhere between 500k and 1m. Tbh, I think it'll be closer to the high end of that than the low.

[Sargerus]

between 300k and 500k subs lost.

[Thulvaso]

@Oevaag

Maybe the release of Mists

one can only hope

[Tziva]

Somewhere between stable and a small amount of lost subs. Some lost because it's the end of an expansion and stagnant, but some gained from the SWTOR subs returning. For the most part, I think the people who were really unhappy with this expansion already took off last year.

[Deleted]

I'm hoping no more than 100-200k lost, however, DS is bloody awful. I know that my guild has had trouble recruiting a solid 10 man group due to people leaving WoW all of the time due to boredem. I also know that several top end guilds on my realm have merged so that they have enough numbers to make it through til the end of Cataclysm. So, on my realm at least, you can visually see that there aren't as many people as there used to be.

I also doubt the tera launch will have any effect on WoW subs... I didn't even know it launched

[Deleted]

The Scroll Of Ressurection ruined any kind of credibility to this report. Obviously tons of people returned to the game if Blizzard gave them freebies worth ~100$.
Even if most people only subscribed for a month, they will still count into Q1 results (because obviously that was the intent).
So, whatever the results are, it won't say much about the actual situation, and I expect a small rise in subscribers.

[Deleted]

I think it'll be a loss, RAF might have lessened it a bit but there's no new content and I can see people taking a break before MOP.

Also other MMO's have seen patches / betas and F2P releases which might tempt people away until there's something new.

[Deleted]

I'd say about 100k loss because no new content lately or in the near future. Tera and SWTOR might have a little impact also but I doubt it's that big. Though it's interesting to see if the new Scroll of Resurrection has done some magics.

[Soisoisoi]

Most of the people I know have came back, so I'm guessing there will be either a plus or neutral.

[Mewtwo]

I saw a few people mentioning Tera...

Am I alone in thinking that game will flop very badly? I don't see how it can have much of an impact on WoW.. I unno.

I was trying to look up some sales figures or something to play into my guess but I couldn't find any.

I honestly have no clue. I guess -100k or so..since there has not been much new content on live. Heh.

[Deleted]

It's quite obvious it will be a loss, but the question is how many?

Stuff like Tera/SWTOR(rofl) won't affect the outcome