It's startling how fast game activity is falling

[ben-]

Something isnt right, look how long the games sale price has been reduced for, it keeps getting extended cheaper etc.... They are trying real hard to find some new\returning players to bring in.

[BeastmasterGuardian]

I just don't think "I have no interest in this thread" is very valuable or productive use of anyone's time

If you are going to "quote" someone, you should quote them accurately. I never stated in any of my posts that I had no interest in this thread. I've call the statistics inaccurate and the thread itself irrelevant, but have never stated what you quoted.

so yeah...

---------- Post added 2012-12-12 at 11:46 AM ----------

Something isnt right, look how long the games sale price has been reduced for, it keeps getting extended cheaper etc.... They are trying real hard to find some new\returning players to bring in.

It's the Holiday season and everyone is having sales. Blizz would be foolish not to follow suit until the end of the year. It's not like they are dropping the sub price to $10 in the hopes of keeping people. They are merely selling the Battlechest at the reduced rate for an extended period to make the game more appealing to people who want to play now, but didn't want to shell out $200 in software to make that happen (all 5 games at $40 each).

[McNeil]

Something isnt right, look how long the games sale price has been reduced for, it keeps getting extended cheaper etc.... They are trying real hard to find some new\returning players to bring in.

I'm also noticing FAR more MoP commercials than ever before. With WotLK and Cata (and maybe TBC), they were gone right after the game was released. Atleast in my country.

[Vivek]

A bump is a content-free post for the purpose of returning a thread to the front page of a forum.

My most recent post had relevant content.

He's got a point there.

---------- Post added 2012-12-13 at 12:03 AM ----------

Probably at the Q4 2012 earnings conference call, which will be in early February 2013.

Yeah that is when the next one will be.

---------- Post added 2012-12-13 at 12:04 AM ----------

I'm also noticing FAR more MoP commercials than ever before. With WotLK and Cata (and maybe TBC), they were gone right after the game was released. Atleast in my country.

Because of all the new low-price offers maybe.

Black Friday offers were 50% off and it's currently 25% off up until Jan 1 2013 I think.

---------- Post added 2012-12-13 at 12:06 AM ----------

Something isnt right, look how long the games sale price has been reduced for, it keeps getting extended cheaper etc.... They are trying real hard to find some new\returning players to bring in.

Yep. That is true.

I am guessing the game hasn't met the sales and sub numbers they were expecting to display for Feb conf call.

[BeastmasterGuardian]

I'm also noticing FAR more MoP commercials than ever before. With WotLK and Cata (and maybe TBC), they were gone right after the game was released. Atleast in my country.

I was seeing Cata commercials just a few months before MoP released. The idea is to keep the game fresh in people's minds. That was the whole reason behind the "What's Your Game" run with Mr. T and Vern Troyer and others. I would imagine Blizzard is so successful because their marketing dept is loaded with opportunists. This, is a smart move on their part.

[Osmeric]

I tend to discount comments about promotions and ads. Too anecdotal, and we don't know what they planned to do anyway.

[BeastmasterGuardian]

I tend to discount comments about promotions and ads. Too anecdotal, and we don't know what they planned to do anyway.

I know what you mean. I discount data provided by regular people rather than funded, licensed, and recognized panels or committees.

[Hexian]

I know what you mean. I discount data provided by regular people rather than funded, licensed, and recognized panels or committees.

So instead you are going to support the arbitrary subscription number that Blizzard shows to the public a couple times a year? A number that is probably the most heavily biased source of information we have regarding game activity. A number that we fully do not exactly what it means to be a "subscriber". A number we do not know the distribution of globally. We could still have 10mil subs due to a continued decrease in the US/EU markets, but a complementary rise in the Asian markets.

Hypocrisy much?

[Orange Joe]

So instead you are going to support the arbitrary subscription number that Blizzard shows to the public a couple times a year? A number that is probably the most heavily biased source of information we have regarding game activity. A number that we fully do not exactly what it means to be a "subscriber". A number we do not know the distribution of globally. We could still have 10mil subs due to a continued decrease in the US/EU markets, but a complementary rise in the Asian markets.

Hypocrisy much?

They have defined what a sub is many many times. There is nothing confusing about it.

[Osmeric]

So instead you are going to support the arbitrary subscription number that Blizzard shows to the public a couple times a year? A number that is probably the most heavily biased source of information we have regarding game activity.

A number that, if it were cooked, could subject Mike Morhaime to criminal prosecution?

Yeah, I think we should trust that number (but read the fine print).

[discoepfeand]

So what's a decent way to actually gauge player involvement outside of Blizzard's official numbers?

The only thing that seems easy enough to do that may be comprehensive enough would be to look at # of unique toons posting to the auction house over time. That's trivial to do, but I'm not convinced that the data would be meaningful.

[Pann]

A number that, if it were cooked, could subject Mike Morhaime to criminal prosecution?

Yeah, I think we should trust that number (but read the fine print).

There is enough ambiguity in the way Blizzard defines a subscriber that it would be highly unlikely that any criminal prosecution would stick if this was the case. Before anyone takes this wrong way I am not saying that Blizzard do or do not cook the sub numbers.

[MasterHamster]

Why are people comparing number of realm guilds that killed a boss in any given tier, compared to t14 that is still current?

Logic.
If people are subject to such obvious flaws in their arguments, how could we ever find statistics that are worth a damn?
Here's something that should come as a surprise to absolutely no one. Major patches and new expansions causes a dramatic surge. Every time. My realm had queues for up to 2 hours or more during 5.0. It's gone now. Am I supposed to start theorizing about thousands of players cancelling their subs, or just consider the fact that it's absolutely nothing special.

Has overall activity dropped? In what timeframe? Compared to what?
Does it matter in any way shape or form?

And regarding Sub numbers, they've always been counted the same way. NO, a trial account is NOT considered a subscriber.

Ps: Xfire. Lol.

[Deleted]

So what's a decent way to actually gauge player involvement outside of Blizzard's official numbers?

The only thing that seems easy enough to do that may be comprehensive enough would be to look at # of unique toons posting to the auction house over time. That's trivial to do, but I'm not convinced that the data would be meaningful.

To be honest, I am stunned that people don't recognize that there's a problem.

It's almost as if Blizz have tapped into people's tribal nature and turned them into loyal unthinking drones.

In what world is it smart to advertise a panda game during Wresting... And why the hell are you watching wrestling in the first place?

Would be smarter to advertise it during "nerd shows"... Also during TBC and mainly Wrath they had a booming Youtube community making songs/parodies and whatnot. The quality of their game was enough to lure new people in, no longer the case im afraid.

I think Blizzard vastly underestimate the power of word of mouth.

They need to learn their lesson the hard way which is always a shame.

I miss server communities and I miss when people needed to make friends to see the game. It's almost as if Blizz don't want that to come back even though that's a huge selling point of an MMORPG.

The panda theme is also very underwhelming. MOP was obviously the cheapest expansion Blizz could make because Kung Fu Panda gave it free advertising.

I wonder how much Ghostcrawler and his friends sold their interviews for.

"PCWorld calls Mists of Pandaria the "Best Expansion Yet"."

I wonder how much Blizzard paid them for that review. PCworld obviously never played Wrath of the Lich King.

It's fun reading all the comments on WoW's Facebook page regarding that quote. The comments are 90% negative. I wonder how long it will be before they ban negative feedback.

[Gurbz]

There is enough ambiguity in the way Blizzard defines a subscriber that it would be highly unlikely that any criminal prosecution would stick if this was the case. Before anyone takes this wrong way I am not saying that Blizzard do or do not cook the sub numbers.

World of Warcraft’s Subscriber Definition

World of Warcraft subscribers include individuals who have paid a subscription fee or have an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft, as well as those who have purchased the game and are within their free month of access. Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days are also counted as subscribers. The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards. Subscribers in licensees’ territories are defined along the same rules.

How is that at all ambiguous?

[Orange Joe]

There is enough ambiguity in the way Blizzard defines a subscriber that it would be highly unlikely that any criminal prosecution would stick if this was the case. Before anyone takes this wrong way I am not saying that Blizzard do or do not cook the sub numbers.

This seems pretty clear to me.

World of Warcraft’s Subscriber Definition
World of Warcraft subscribers include individuals who have paid a subscription fee or have an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft, as well as those who have purchased the game and are within their free month of access. Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days are also counted as subscribers. The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards. Subscribers in licensees’ territories are defined along the same rules.

In the west. Anyone that has an active paid sub (not a free promotion) is counted.

In the east. It only counts those that have logged in in the past 30 days.

---------- Post added 2012-12-12 at 04:20 PM ----------

Snip

Seem I was very slow in replying lol

[Huehuecoyotl]

World of Warcraft’s Subscriber Definition

World of Warcraft subscribers include individuals who have paid a subscription fee or have an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft, as well as those who have purchased the game and are within their free month of access. Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days are also counted as subscribers. The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards. Subscribers in licensees’ territories are defined along the same rules.

How is that at all ambiguous?

its less about being ambiguous, and more about hiding necessary details. that 10 million figure doesnt tell you how many were western players subbed for the whole 3 months, and how many were eastern players subbed for 10 minutes in the last month. one is a LOT more income for Blizzard than the other. we dont see how that balance changes over time either. in fact none of the Blizzard investors do, which would certainly stop me investing my money in the first place.

[Orange Joe]

its less about being ambiguous, and more about hiding necessary details. that 10 million figure doesnt tell you how many were western players subbed for the whole 3 months, and how many were eastern players subbed for 10 minutes in the last month. one is a LOT more income for Blizzard than the other. we dont see how that balance changes over time either. in fact none of the Blizzard investors do, which would certainly stop me investing my money in the first place.

Why does any of that matter?

Worry when they start saying they are losing money. Until then things will stay pretty much the same.

[Pann]

This seems pretty clear to me.




In the west. Anyone that has an active paid sub (not a free promotion) is counted.

In the east. It only counts those that have logged in in the past 30 days.

My point was more to do with whether or not it would be possible to pin a criminal charge on any Blizzard employee if there was any question of massaging the subscriber numbers. The fact of the matter is that sub numbers matter very little to any investor as potentially the current 10 million player base could mean a monthly sub income of $20-30 million, $150 million or anywhere in between and as such it is unlikely that any authority would be interested in filing any charges as long the financials are reported correctly.

[MoanaLisa]

Something isnt right, look how long the games sale price has been reduced for, it keeps getting extended cheaper etc.... They are trying real hard to find some new\returning players to bring in.

It's a mistake to think that sale prices at Christmas are some sort of harbinger of doom for the game or a sign of desperation. Of course they're trying hard to find new/returning players.

That's where the real money is. I'm surprised that more people don't realize this. WoW makes much more from the monthly subscriptions in US/EU than anything related to the price to get in the game. For Blizzard, at this point in time, that's negligible if the entire transaction is done as a d/l. They probably make more profit from $45 for all of it as a download than they ever did figuring in the costs of everything required to get a retail box into a store.