Originally Posted by
Heresy
Hard to say.
Christmas and China might bring it a bit up.
But 5.1 brought nothing to the table for the raiders who have finished the current tier 2-3 months ago. Except more daily quests and reps to grind, which generally people seem to dislike.
The Annual pass started Oct/Nov 2011 and new sign ups ended April/May 2012. Depending on when the 1.2 million signed up (most likely the majority did so during Oct-Dec), I would expect some of them to be glad they can finally stop their sub without losing D3 f.ex. (Me being one of them personally. My annual pass expired in Dec 2012.)
Some also dislike the Chinese-ish setting of the game. But doubtful this amount of players would have any substantial impact.
Edit:
Also, got games like Guild Wars 2, The Secret World (went F2P, might have attracted some), SW:TOR (went F2P, might have attracted some). But this is also a difficult number to put a finger on. Some play both F2P and Sub-based games at the same time.